How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?

[Battlefront.com]

2 minutes ago, kimbosbread said:

Any thoughts on Ukraine opening up an alternate front, ie Transnistrya? Surely they have the manpower to do that (or borrow it, as it would be much easier to hide super special friend casualties). It would make Russia look bad, and close down a giant security hole they currently have.

I have always wondered why the GUR and Moldova don't team up to get Transnistria back under Moldovan control.  I also would be exploring ways to make Kaliningrad a lot less stable for Russia.  The US and Europeans should be all over the latter.  Russia thinks it is perfectly fine to interfere in the internal order of its rivals, so obviously they think this is a fine way to go about international relations.

Steve

[sburke]

5 hours ago, Battlefront.com said:

 

1. the arms export market for Russia was an important part of its defense strategy as well as national pride.  Nobody wants to do business with Russia now because it isn't clear that Russia can deliver.  And even if it can, countries have reason to question it's a good investment in their defense capabilities.

Steve

worse, Russia is trying to buy back its equipment in order to keep its military going and in India the buy back had been held up because India wouldn't accept the currency Russia wanted to use.  Is Russia really even doing arms sales anymore to the point of actually delivering?  Haven't been following that one for a bit but it seems unlikely.

[sburke]

Russia's oil deals with India should terrify countries trying to abandon the dollar (yahoo.com)

To be able to buy Russian oil, India insisted on settling trades in the rupee earlier this year. That's because using US dollars could expose it to secondary sanctions, and it worries about acquiring rubles at a fair rate on the open market.

However, Indian authorities have controls on the rupee and the currency is not fully convertible — which means it can't be easily changed into another currency.

This poses a problem for Russia, which found itself stuck with lots of rubles in Indian banks earlier this year.

India actually encourages the rupees to be spent in India itself. The problem for Russia is that there's not much it wants to buy from India.

The currency issue is not just a problem with India — sources tell Reuters that it's affecting other top buyers in Africa, China, and Turkey too.

To get around its rupee conundrum and reduce its currency risks, Russian officials and oil executives have instead been pushing Indian buyers to pay them in Chinese yuan. It's also subject to controls and is not fully convertible, but Russia imports a lot more from China, including cars, machinery and other goods.

Yet the Indian government is increasingly uncomfortable with yuan trade, since there are currency conversion charges involved and geopolitical rivalry between Delhi and Beijing.

[dan/california]

6 minutes ago, sburke said:

Russia's oil deals with India should terrify countries trying to abandon the dollar (yahoo.com)

To be able to buy Russian oil, India insisted on settling trades in the rupee earlier this year. That's because using US dollars could expose it to secondary sanctions, and it worries about acquiring rubles at a fair rate on the open market.

However, Indian authorities have controls on the rupee and the currency is not fully convertible — which means it can't be easily changed into another currency.

This poses a problem for Russia, which found itself stuck with lots of rubles in Indian banks earlier this year.

India actually encourages the rupees to be spent in India itself. The problem for Russia is that there's not much it wants to buy from India.

The currency issue is not just a problem with India — sources tell Reuters that it's affecting other top buyers in Africa, China, and Turkey too.

To get around its rupee conundrum and reduce its currency risks, Russian officials and oil executives have instead been pushing Indian buyers to pay them in Chinese yuan. It's also subject to controls and is not fully convertible, but Russia imports a lot more from China, including cars, machinery and other goods.

Yet the Indian government is increasingly uncomfortable with yuan trade, since there are currency conversion charges involved and geopolitical rivalry between Delhi and Beijing.

Russia's actual terms of trade with both countries must be worse than awful.

[Battlefront.com]

40 minutes ago, sburke said:

Russia's oil deals with India should terrify countries trying to abandon the dollar (yahoo.com)

To be able to buy Russian oil, India insisted on settling trades in the rupee earlier this year. That's because using US dollars could expose it to secondary sanctions, and it worries about acquiring rubles at a fair rate on the open market.

However, Indian authorities have controls on the rupee and the currency is not fully convertible — which means it can't be easily changed into another currency.

This poses a problem for Russia, which found itself stuck with lots of rubles in Indian banks earlier this year.

India actually encourages the rupees to be spent in India itself. The problem for Russia is that there's not much it wants to buy from India.

The currency issue is not just a problem with India — sources tell Reuters that it's affecting other top buyers in Africa, China, and Turkey too.

To get around its rupee conundrum and reduce its currency risks, Russian officials and oil executives have instead been pushing Indian buyers to pay them in Chinese yuan. It's also subject to controls and is not fully convertible, but Russia imports a lot more from China, including cars, machinery and other goods.

Yet the Indian government is increasingly uncomfortable with yuan trade, since there are currency conversion charges involved and geopolitical rivalry between Delhi and Beijing.

As with many things, the real world is quite a bit more complicated than the headlines.  "Russian oil revenue is up" doesn't seem to take into consideration minor things like what Russia is able to do with its revenue now compared to pre-sanctions days.

I have experienced what the article describes first hand.  It is a big deal.

Many years ago I participated in a barter exchange group that used time as a sort of currency.  I put in a lot of time and technically earned a lot of credit within the group.  The problem was I really didn't want/need anything the group had to offer that was even close to the value of what I had banked.  So I basically did all that work for free.  Fortunately I put in the time helping a friend and I would have done it for free anyway, so I didn't care.

If someone wants to dismiss what this article is talking about, I recommend doing an experiment.  Go work for someone for a week pays you 10 pounds of sand per hour of your labor.  At the end of the week you'll have 400 pounds of sand.  Now, try to go out for a meal, buy gas, get your car fixed, or shop on Amazon with your 40 pounds of sand and note how useful it is.  Of course you might find someone who is willing to trade you something useful for that sand.  In fact, I need some!  I'll give you USD for it, however you'll have to get it to me at your cost and accept my offer of $0.50 per pound.  I don't care how much it costs you to get it to me, that's what I'm offering. (see previous article about how China is doing this to Russian gas deliveries).

The message is to not be so quick to think Russia's doing OK despite sanctions.  On paper it might be, but details matter.

Steve

[kimbosbread]

1 hour ago, Battlefront.com said:

I have always wondered why the GUR and Moldova don't team up to get Transnistria back under Moldovan control.  I also would be exploring ways to make Kaliningrad a lot less stable for Russia.  The US and Europeans should be all over the latter.  Russia thinks it is perfectly fine to interfere in the internal order of its rivals, so obviously they think this is a fine way to go about international relations.

Steve

Well, per the ongoing discussion (and demonstrations) of Americans being idiots, can we be surprised? Anybody who has had to deal with the American intelligence agencies, their conferences and their minions is not surprised.

Transnistria and Kaliningrad (and Dagestan and whatever the Chinese part of Russia is) are such obvious, squish soft targets with high payout for low reward I can only imagine terminal idiocy and pussilanimity (sp?) are preventing us from taking advantage.

[dan/california]

32 minutes ago, kimbosbread said:

Well, per the ongoing discussion (and demonstrations) of Americans being idiots, can we be surprised? Anybody who has had to deal with the American intelligence agencies, their conferences and their minions is not surprised.

Transnistria and Kaliningrad (and Dagestan and whatever the Chinese part of Russia is) are such obvious, squish soft targets with high payout for low reward I can only imagine terminal idiocy and pussilanimity (sp?) are preventing us from taking advantage.

I am no way saying that the U.S. hasn't made a truly impressive laundry list of mistakes in the last thirty years, but I think we have to look at the way we approached those mistakes. The U.S. has mostly attempted to increase order and the rule of law. With very few exceptions when we set out to undermine a hostile regime we have been extremely public about it. Sabotaging the Iranian nuclear program is the only real exception. There were other covert actions, but at the very least they mostly in pursuit of very public goals like the the pursuit of ISIS and Bin Laden.

We now have to adapt ourselves to a world that again has real great power competition, and multiple players with a proven willingness to change borders by force. We have to relearn to do things in a truly covert manner, and keep them covert even if successful. We simply can't afford not relearn how to help unpleasant regimes and people to experience what i like to call "bad industrial accidents", and they need too look convincingly accidental.

[sburke]

1 hour ago, kimbosbread said:

Well, per the ongoing discussion (and demonstrations) of Americans being idiots, can we be surprised? Anybody who has had to deal with the American intelligence agencies, their conferences and their minions is not surprised.

Transnistria and Kaliningrad (and Dagestan and whatever the Chinese part of Russia is) are such obvious, squish soft targets with high payout for low reward I can only imagine terminal idiocy and pussilanimity (sp?) are preventing us from taking advantage.

how quickly we forget.  Remember before the Russian invasion how the US intelligence community handled releasing info to box Russia in and make it clear that they really did intend to invade?  Not exactly the work of idiots.

Edited November 29, 2023 by sburke

[Zeleban]

9 hours ago, Letter from Prague said:

I'm not sure why you'd say "Russia is done".

Russia is winning in all metrics they care about - they wanted a piece of Ukraine and they got it, they will get to keep it forever and try again in a few years after West pushes Ukraine to give up this round. They got to send thousands of prisoners, poor men from undeveloped regions and minorities to their deaths. They wanted to show NATO in particular and Western world order in general as a shams and the whole West as weak and corrupt, and they succeeded. They strengthened their relationships with similar regimes like China and Iran as well. Common Russians even get to bully Ukrainian refugees when they visit West for vacations.

The only price they had to pay for that was some sanctions that do nothing, and that's about it.

Do not forget the most important goal - demonstrating the futility of resistance for future potential targets of Russian aggression. Events seem to tell these countries (Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan, Georgia, etc.) if you dare to resist us. Our large army will invade your country, destroy your economy, kill part of your population and force others to flee abroad, kidnap your children, rob your businesses, create an environmental disaster for some regions, and we don’t care at what cost we will do this. At the same time, there is no point in expecting help from the weak West.

[paxromana]

15 minutes ago, Zeleban said:

Do not forget the most important goal - demonstrating the futility of resistance for future potential targets of Russian aggression. Events seem to tell these countries (Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan, Georgia, etc.) if you dare to resist us. Our large army will invade your country, destroy your economy, kill part of your population and force others to flee abroad, kidnap your children, rob your businesses, create an environmental disaster for some regions, and we don’t care at what cost we will do this. At the same time, there is no point in expecting help from the weak West.

And this. too, has been a failure ... all those potential targets are looking at the Ukrainians absolutely gutting Russias military and calculating ... just how little chance the Russians have of actually rebuilding those losses in the mid term future and the even more miniscule chance the rebuilding will be 'fit for purpose' in the face of what these potential targets will be able to buy from the West when Russia won't be able to and has shown an inability to do without.

Edited November 29, 2023 by paxromana

[Zeleban]

9 hours ago, Battlefront.com said:

bringing Ukraine back into Russia's orbit.  Nope, the opposite has happened.

I recently presented a completely realistic scenario for Ukraine’s return to Russia’s orbit. Putin understands Ukraine much better than Western politicians and knows its weak points very well

9 hours ago, Battlefront.com said:

Russia wants the world to fear it and obey it like other super powers.  Instead much of the world is laughing at how incompetent and ineffective Russia is.

This is their 2022 statement. Today it's the other way around. Russia is demonstrating effectiveness at least at the strategic and operational-ta

 

ctical level. They have clearly learned how to effectively use air support and are now outmaneuvering the Ukrainian generals. And yes, the West is really afraid of Russia (and after the defeat of Ukraine, this fear will intensify many times over) . At least Ukrainians have not laughed at “stupid Russians” for a long time.

9 hours ago, Battlefront.com said:

if Ukraine can't be conquered or dismembered, then it needs to be made toxic and isolated.  The opposite has happened.

 

The same as in the answer I mentioned above about the “Russian orbit”

9 hours ago, Battlefront.com said:

if Ukraine can't be conquered or dismembered, then it needs to be made toxic and isolated.  The opposite has happened.

This is happening literally before our eyes. Ukraine is becoming more and more toxic, even in the eyes of our closest neighbors such as Poland and Slovakia. I think there is no need to remind you about the blockade of the borders with Ukraine by these countries. This is also evidenced by the choice of the citizens of Slovakia of a clearly pro-Russian president

9 hours ago, Battlefront.com said:

NATO needs to be shown pointless and impotent.  While I agree Russia has shown certain areas of weakness within NATO, more people believe in the purpose of NATO now than before the war started.

Russia did not demonstrate weaknesses in NATO, it demonstrated the lack of a clear NATO strategy in response to the growing threat from the east. And of course, the lack of unity among NATO member countries. Hungary, Slovakia, Türkiye

Well, let's not forget about the upcoming US elections and the most obvious presidential candidates in these elections. A significant portion of the US population also demonstrates that they do not believe in NATO

9 hours ago, Battlefront.com said:

Russia wanted to leverage undermining NATO so it could get the Baltics under its thumb.  Instead he got NATO to enlarge by two nations, including strategically important Finland.

This problem is closely related to my previous answer

9 hours ago, Battlefront.com said:

part of the reason Russia wanted Ukraine was to exploit it economically to benefit his power base in Moscow.  Instead he wrecked much of the Russian economy and cost the oligarchs he didn't murder a lot of money.

Russia is actively doing this right now, trading Ukrainian grain, as well as dismantling equipment from seized Ukrainian enterprises

9 hours ago, Battlefront.com said:

the influence campaign to disrupt the world order was supposed to be strengthened by attacking Ukraine, instead it was wrecked.

A very controversial statement. Haven't we discussed before that we are witnessing a crisis in the world order? If Ukraine is captured, there will be a change in the world order - a significant strengthening of the role of Russia in Europe and a weakening of the role of the United States in Europe

This campaign has not failed, it is still in progress.

9 hours ago, Battlefront.com said:

Russia's entire economy is based on energy exports.  Those customers are gone and it has not found replacements.  Certainly not lucrative ones like Europe (see recent article on China beating up Russia on pricing).

A very controversial statement, given the growth in Russian energy exports. What difference does it make if Russia sells these energy resources directly to Western countries or through third countries? Still, the profit goes into the pockets of the Kremlin

9 hours ago, Battlefront.com said:

energy has been a primary weapon of choice for Russia.  With the loss of European customer base that's gone now.

As we see, this is not the case. Energy resources remain a very effective weapon for the Kremlin. Through countries such as Hungary and Türkiye, Russia has the opportunity to influence EU policy

9 hours ago, Battlefront.com said:

the arms export market for Russia was an important part of its defense strategy as well as national pride.  Nobody wants to do business with Russia now because it isn't clear that Russia can deliver.  And even if it can, countries have reason to question it's a good investment in their defense capabilities.

This is wrong. After the end of the war, we will see a huge demand for simple and effective means of war, such as adjustable aerial bombs, Lancet UAVs, Orlan UAVs, Ka-52 helicopters, etc. Russian weapons are demonstrating their effectiveness right now on the battlefield

9 hours ago, Battlefront.com said:

nowhere on Putin's agenda was becoming dependent upon Iran, North Korea, and most of all China.  And yet, it now is.

 

This is hardly an addiction, rather a partnership. And by the way, quite effective partnerships, unlike partnerships between Ukraine and the West. We see an increase in Russian arms supplies to Iran. Su-35 aircraft, Ka-52 helicopters are from recent deliveries

9 hours ago, Battlefront.com said:

nowhere on Putin's agenda was spending down 40 years worth of accumulated military power, and yet it has done just that.

Instead of piles of old rubbish, Putin receives one of the most numerous and effective armies of our time. Now we are honing new methods and tactics for using the Russian armed forces on the battlefield. Who today still believes that armadas of old tanks are a necessary asset in a modern war, where armadas of drones dominate the battlefield?

9 hours ago, Battlefront.com said:

sanctions prior to 2022 were damaging to Russia's economy and sense of national pride.  Now, it's put them back decades.  Sure, they can still get much of what they need to keep their economy going, but it costs more and is less certain.  People who expected sanctions to crush Russia within 1-2 years were always wrong to think that way.  Sanctions take a long time to work, even longer if the goal is regime change vs. kneecapping the nation's ability to project power.

Nothing like this. I was especially surprised by the statement about “national pride.” Russia's national pride today is at its highest level in recent memory. Well, as we see the latest news, Putin has more than doubled spending on the army compared to 2021. This clearly does not indicate a decline in the economy.

While the Ukrainian economy is on the verge of collapse. In the latest news, civil servants' salaries have been reduced by almost 40%

[Zeleban]

46 minutes ago, paxromana said:

And this. too, has been a failure ... all those potential targets are looking at the Ukrainians absolutely gutting Russias military and calculating ... just how little chance the Russians have of actually rebuilding those losses in the mid term future and the even more miniscule chance the rebuilding will be 'fit for purpose' in the face of what these potential targets will be able to buy from the West when Russia won't be able to and has shown an inability to do without.

Buy what exactly? Has the West really increased the production of military products in volumes sufficient to arm at least itself, not to mention the sale of military products for export? Today there are long-term queues for the purchase of certain military goods, even for NATO countries

Is Ukraine gutting the Russian army? Everything is just the opposite: Russia is gutting the Ukrainian army. We have an acute shortage of literally everything from personnel to ammunition. And it’s not clear where we can get all this? While Russia is only increasing the supply of everything necessary.

[LongLeftFlank]

14 hours ago, The_Capt said:

Or attack somewhere else.  I guess this is my point.  Ukraine got pulled into a tactical battle of attrition of Russia's choosing and then Russia went and created massive defences elsewhere.  To my mind that is not a win no matter how much the RA of Wagner lose in that initial battle, unless it can break the Russians overall.  It clearly did not.  So I think we are trying to make a virtue out of circumstances that were not optimal.

Now how the UA got pulled into this? - e.g. Bakhmut but unable to attack anywhere else.  Is a major question. Did they over extend last Fall?  The UA needed to defend Bakhmut and attack to disrupt the obstacle mess the RA built.  Better yet attack elsewhere along the line to pull the RA laterally and cause direct stress.  If they could not do that while the RA could do the inverse then there is a deeper problem here.  Russia can continue this cycle until they have locked up the entire front, and then still pick and choose where to attack.

This also does not track as we know that both forces are roughly the same size in country.

I agree completely with your assessment. And hey, here's a tune you might actually like.

****

But while we are in hindsight mode here, I am also going to point out that I was sounding nonstop alarms about the risks of giving the Russians breathing space to dig in and lay mine belts in the land bridge, as early as May 2022. Of course I wasn't the only one saying it here (or on Twitter). For example...

But I also took a huge ration of crap from the Cool Kids here for being defeatist, or at best over-hasty. Cuz, you know, Russia was immolating itself before our very eyes and Time Is Not On Russia's Side (that's a literal quote, oft repeated), that Russian fortifications were a joke, and that only a very large and meticulously planned UA offensive (with NATO training and kit!) was going to achieve meaningful results. 

On 11/28/2023 at 1:02 PM, LongLeftFlank said:

May 2022...

I'm talking about a conventional attack by c.2 UA heavy brigades in the general direction Melitopol; to destroy or rout Russian forces opposite and force a full scale RA relief effort which has every chance of turning into yet another C-Fk and further sapping their strength.

The infantry-heavy UA actions to clear the Kharkiv environs and menace the Izyum LOCs can continue. They aren't using their heavy forces for those; the built up terrain is not favourable.

Russia is reeling now, mainly from its own manifest incompetence. A summer 'pause' lets them off the ropes to regroup and dig in.

I take note of the valid points by @The_Capt about the drain on battered Russia of manning such a long frontier.

But remember, they have no choice but to make that heavy commitment, realign their shredded economy to China and wait for better days to resume their mucking around.

I don't buy Steve's thesis that there will be sustained partisan warfare....

Let us also consider the huge drain on Ukraine (40 million souls) of becoming an armed camp for the foreseeable future, manning a long hostile frontier with a huge (Western-armed) standing army.

I continue to insist on the 'rapid' (or 'early') part because as the Russians dig in and sow millions of mines, it will be terribly costly to achieve those break ins. The Verdun shoe will be on the other foot then, I fear. Western military thinkers love their big systematic OVERLORD buildups, but there is such a thing as waiting too long.

I worry that for all our confident theorising, the front 'freezes' along the Dnepr land corridor and Sievertsi Donets (yes, no doubt the Russians will eventually vacate Kherson and east of Kharkiv). Ivan will dig in, revert to 1980s tech and mine the sh%t out of everything. So by fall, the sheer human cost of retaking the lost lands becomes higher than even the hardest line Ukrainians can stomach. While Putin manages to keep the lid on far longer than any non-Russian could possibly imagine.

It's a risky course for UA to just keep on gnawing away at RA with HIMARS, counterbattery fire and infantry probes, straight into the winter. The brave Ukrainian people pay an awful price for every day this drags on. I also continue to believe Ivan is frantically digging in already ('freezing his gains', or trying to) and the longer offensive action is put off, the bloodier and more fraught retaking those lands is going to be.

...So, again, my view is that they either need to take some risks and find a way to solve for larger offensive ops, or else materially ratchet up the Russian death rates to a level that forces their withdrawal.

Russia isn't going to fade away or bleed out on its own on its current trajectory. It can't take much more of Ukraine, but if not shoved out of what it has, it will keep digging in, keep up positional warfare and bombardments through 2023 while whining for a cease fire (in place).

By late 2023, Ukraine is 'Okrajina'. A dismal borderland, an armed camp having to man a hostile horseshoe shaped frontier of some 1000 miles, with some 15% of its 40M people exiles or under enemy occupation, another c.5% physically or mentally shattered, and another c.20% living within Russian tactical artillery range. No rebuilding, few non war-related jobs, no investment, no clear way to plan for the future. Wholly dependent on Western aid, vulnerable to corruption and factional gangsterism.

With every week that goes by, the land bridge area -- the one piece of ground Putin MUST hold (beyond the Feb 2022 lines) to give his fig leaf 'victory' -- becomes more analogous to the built up Kursk salient of mid-1943; belts of trenches (prefab bunkers?) plus mines, mines and more mines (remote controlled mines, smart mines, wheeled mines, etc.).

Continuous channeling and killing zones, to slow and then blast UA forces with old school mortars and rockets (which Russia can still produce in bulk with a little Chinese help). And their tac air arm will become more formidable supporting such a static defence. It is unsafe to assume he never learns, and eventually the Ukes may run out of ways to surprise him.

A "retro" Russian army, even poorly commanded, trained and resupplied, can make the Ukrainians pay dearly in blood and equipment for every meter of ground.

There's no "snow eating fog" solution I can see for this case.

I also have little faith in a Panzerkiel of Western ubertanks, with or without supporting EW / CSIR / TAC and accompanying waves of combat sappers (Ukrainian dac cong) blasting and slashing a way through the Russian mine belts to Melitopol, or more likely the (partisan contested) heights between Melitopol and Mariupol.

...So, you're exactly right: it's logistics. Rot these bastards out first, before you hit them. Then eat them using technoed up assault infantry, selectively supported by AFVs. Snow eating fog.

And you already know my best guess on that: kill all the trucks.

So maybe my 'cracked lens' isn't so cracked after all.

On 11/28/2023 at 1:02 PM, LongLeftFlank said:

 

 

[The_Capt]

4 minutes ago, LongLeftFlank said:

I agree completely with your assessment. And hey, here's a tune you might actually like.

****

But while we are in hindsight mode here, I am also going to point out that I was sounding nonstop alarms about the risks of giving the Russians breathing space to dig in and lay mine belts in the land bridge, as early as May 2022. Of course I wasn't the only one saying it here (or on Twitter). For example...

But I also took a huge ration of crap from the Cool Kids here for being defeatist, or at best over-hasty. Cuz, you know, Russia was immolating itself before our very eyes and Time Is Not On Russia's Side (that's a literal quote, oft repeated), that Russian fortifications were a joke, and that only a very large and meticulously planned UA offensive (with NATO training and kit!) was going to achieve meaningful results. 

So maybe my 'cracked lens' isn't so cracked after all.

 

Wow, longest “I told you so” post in history (ah, page 1583, we were so young and innocent then).  Russia was (and still is) “immolating” itself, let’s not jump on the Doom bandwagon too hard here.  What do we actually know?  

The UA Summer offensive failed to achieve visible results.  I am sorry but no one (including you, Mr Broken Clock) were able to articulate why this condition would occur given the information we had at hand.  Further, you and been crying about the sky falling pretty much since March of 22.  You will excuse the class if we did not jump on board another LLF doom and gloom exercise. 

The obstacles were a concern.  We did push back on the whole “Lolz Russia” wave because those obstacle belts looked pretty well developed to my eyes.  What was missing was the RA ability to defend them.  Given the abysmal losses and state of affairs of the RA after the Winter offensive how on earth they managed to defend an 800km frontage and actually cover those minefields is frankly beyond me.  If you wish to impress explain that.  How did the RA logistically, ISR and simple combat power manage to actually cover all those obstacles?  Let alone do it effectively?  Please state your thesis.  If you stand in a field long enough and cry “lightening” one day you will be correct.  That does not mean you actually understand how lightening happens.

 

[Beleg85]

5 hours ago, Zeleban said:

Ukraine is becoming more and more toxic, even in the eyes of our closest neighbors such as Poland and Slovakia. I think there is no need to remind you about the blockade of the borders with Ukraine by these countries. This is also evidenced by the choice of the citizens of Slovakia of a clearly pro-Russian president

So regarding this situation- never heard collective voice that Ukraine is toxic and we should stop supporting it, unless you mean insufficent level of fight with corruption, which is unfortunatelly constant and pissing off many new companies from EU, not accustomed to this way of doing business (at this point, it's Number 1 blocker for more integration with West, more so than Russian danger). PL is not blocking anybody, too; small desperate group of workers do, like often happen within European Union when their interests are treatened; there are also Slovakians, Hungarians, one Czech company and anybody from this business who looses. Note they are also blocking our exports to UA and provide massive trade losses on our end, too. Nothing new in European Union.*

Add largest interregnum we had in last 8 years (this timing could actually point toward some Russian inspiration, they caught us pants down). Matters should be resolved by early January, hopefully when new government take reigns more firmly, and negotiation and conflict resolving teams are working there already. Even Slovakia is as always on the fence between pro or anti Ukraine, despite their new president; they too already donated most of their military hardware anyway.

*This aricle of one of Ukrainian economical analysts is rather  well balanced regarding this kind of issues, worth to read it for you perhaps. These things do and will happen in EU; it's giant, unified market where various groups are constantly fighting for their interests:

https://espreso.tv/koli-pro-koruptsiyu-movchat-tse-ne-oznachae-shcho-ii-nema

 

Edited November 29, 2023 by Beleg85

[The_Capt]

5 hours ago, Zeleban said:

I recently presented a completely realistic scenario for Ukraine’s return to Russia’s orbit. Putin understands Ukraine much better than Western politicians and knows its weak points very well

This is their 2022 statement. Today it's the other way around. Russia is demonstrating effectiveness at least at the strategic and operational-ta

 

ctical level. They have clearly learned how to effectively use air support and are now outmaneuvering the Ukrainian generals. And yes, the West is really afraid of Russia (and after the defeat of Ukraine, this fear will intensify many times over) . At least Ukrainians have not laughed at “stupid Russians” for a long time.

 

The same as in the answer I mentioned above about the “Russian orbit”

This is happening literally before our eyes. Ukraine is becoming more and more toxic, even in the eyes of our closest neighbors such as Poland and Slovakia. I think there is no need to remind you about the blockade of the borders with Ukraine by these countries. This is also evidenced by the choice of the citizens of Slovakia of a clearly pro-Russian president

Russia did not demonstrate weaknesses in NATO, it demonstrated the lack of a clear NATO strategy in response to the growing threat from the east. And of course, the lack of unity among NATO member countries. Hungary, Slovakia, Türkiye

Well, let's not forget about the upcoming US elections and the most obvious presidential candidates in these elections. A significant portion of the US population also demonstrates that they do not believe in NATO

This problem is closely related to my previous answer

Russia is actively doing this right now, trading Ukrainian grain, as well as dismantling equipment from seized Ukrainian enterprises

A very controversial statement. Haven't we discussed before that we are witnessing a crisis in the world order? If Ukraine is captured, there will be a change in the world order - a significant strengthening of the role of Russia in Europe and a weakening of the role of the United States in Europe

This campaign has not failed, it is still in progress.

A very controversial statement, given the growth in Russian energy exports. What difference does it make if Russia sells these energy resources directly to Western countries or through third countries? Still, the profit goes into the pockets of the Kremlin

As we see, this is not the case. Energy resources remain a very effective weapon for the Kremlin. Through countries such as Hungary and Türkiye, Russia has the opportunity to influence EU policy

This is wrong. After the end of the war, we will see a huge demand for simple and effective means of war, such as adjustable aerial bombs, Lancet UAVs, Orlan UAVs, Ka-52 helicopters, etc. Russian weapons are demonstrating their effectiveness right now on the battlefield

 

This is hardly an addiction, rather a partnership. And by the way, quite effective partnerships, unlike partnerships between Ukraine and the West. We see an increase in Russian arms supplies to Iran. Su-35 aircraft, Ka-52 helicopters are from recent deliveries

Instead of piles of old rubbish, Putin receives one of the most numerous and effective armies of our time. Now we are honing new methods and tactics for using the Russian armed forces on the battlefield. Who today still believes that armadas of old tanks are a necessary asset in a modern war, where armadas of drones dominate the battlefield?

Nothing like this. I was especially surprised by the statement about “national pride.” Russia's national pride today is at its highest level in recent memory. Well, as we see the latest news, Putin has more than doubled spending on the army compared to 2021. This clearly does not indicate a decline in the economy.

While the Ukrainian economy is on the verge of collapse. In the latest news, civil servants' salaries have been reduced by almost 40%

Ok, lets just put the brakes on this whole narrative because it is heading for Kettler levels of mis/dis information. I can't speak to what you are hearing at the post office but let's just step back and look at some facts:

Ukraine has received roughly $300B dollars in aid from governments around the world in 18 months (Jan 22 - Jul 23).  That comes to around 4 years of normal Russian defence spending and 150% of Ukraine's entire GDP in 2021:

https://tradingeconomics.com/ukraine/gdp

Russia has spent an insane amount on this little "SMO" and it is going to cost it even more:

https://www.ft.com/content/1e5d63a6-d5f8-4206-81fc-4ff324789ac3

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Economic_impact_of_the_Russian_invasion_of_Ukraine#:~:text=In November 2022 it was,%24500 million to %241 billion.

Militarily their losses could man and equip a national-level army:

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Casualties_of_the_Russo-Ukrainian_War

https://www.oryxspioenkop.com/2022/02/attack-on-europe-documenting-equipment.html

Neither the Russia economy nor its "partnerships" with India or China are a good thing for that nation.  We have seen a lot of posts to support that.  What do you give us?  "No they aren't, because Su-35s, Ka-52s"...with freakin Iran.

https://www.thenationalnews.com/mena/iran/2023/11/28/iran-claims-delivery-of-russian-su-35-fighter-jets-is-imminent/  Ok, so is this a sign that Russia has so many they can afford to sell them?  Or is it a sign they are desperate for cash and are selling off assets they cannot really get anything out of? Wait, don't bother I think I know your answer.

If you are going to make claims that Russia's economy and/or military are somehow in "better" shape now than they were on 20 Feb 22 you had better start posting some facts to back it up.

What we have heard from you over the last week has been every worst case/perspective strung together to try and make a case...for what exactly?  No counter-thinking, no "here is what I don't know".  In fact you have openly called anything that counters your viewpoint, "Putin propaganda".  If you had just shown up here as a new poster we would have called you out as a pro-Putin disinformation pusher based on what you have been pitching.  Being where you are you get a lot of slack, all the Ukrainian posters do, but this is crossing some lines we try to hold onto in this forum.  Start posting something other than your own opinion.  Start looking at counter-points.  Tell us what you don't know. 

Because speaking for myself...got it: Zeleban is really, really...really sure Ukraine is totally screwed.

 

[The_Capt]

On 5/17/2022 at 2:20 AM, LongLeftFlank said:

Russia is reeling now, mainly from its own manifest incompetence. A summer 'pause' lets them off the ropes to regroup and dig in on their early gains in the south and in the Izyum-Kreminna river line.  That's all basically stalemate, except for Kharkiv.

I just don't buy the 'collapse' theory. The Russian army must be beaten, on defence, to collapse it. Or they will keep fighting, with whatever they have.

While foreign pressure on Ukraine to accept a ceasefire and 'negotiate' will only rise over time. So with your 'pause' you have just voluntarily ceded the initiative and shifted back to a long game Putin can play and win.

Oh, I just can't let this one go.  You did say giving Russia breathing room was bad...in spring of 22.  You also started fervently that "I just don't buy the 'collapse' theory.

And then we had last Fall.  Not one collapse but two operational level collapses at Kharkiv and Kherson.  You are seriously going to point to this post as prescient prediction of events in 2023?

Look, we all watched World at War as kids.  The dulcet tones of Sir LO voice-overring the episode when the Siberian ski guys came and chased the Germans away.   The myth of bottomless Russian manpower dazzled me to when I was 12.  But it does not explain what we have seen this year.  Russian manpower levels have stayed fairly consistent.  They pull in enough to replace losses but no Russian hordes that somehow held off the UA because we did not listen to LongLefty.

Of course if you give an opponent time to dig in they are going to.  The question back then was "with what".  Forces are manning at about 300 troops per km.  That is insanely low, yet somehow effective. 

Here is my guess.  The RA finally sorted out its C4ISR:

https://static.rusi.org/Stormbreak-Special-Report-web-final_0.pdf (pg 18-19)

We knew they could do this back in 2014.  The RA had linked tactical ISR to fires resulting in some truly impressive (for the day) fires.  They appear to have improved their C4ISR to the point that they can see the UA mass and cue on it.  Those Ka52s that hammered that attempted minefield breach last Jun were not simply flying by.  The RA has managed to elevate its C4ISR game to the point that it too does not need high density for defence.  Now whether "breathing room" had anything to do with that remains unknown.

My underlying thesis remains consistent.  Warfare has shifted and the UA may have gone as far as it can with what it has.  Russia has also likely gone about as far as it can with what it has.  Is this going to stay this way?  I do not know.

[Zeleban]

17 minutes ago, The_Capt said:

Ok, lets just put the brakes on this whole narrative because it is heading for Kettler levels of mis/dis information. I can't speak to what you are hearing at the post office but let's just step back and look at some facts:

Ukraine has received roughly $300B dollars in aid from governments around the world in 18 months (Jan 22 - Jul 23).  That comes to around 4 years of normal Russian defence spending and 150% of Ukraine's entire GDP in 2021:

https://tradingeconomics.com/ukraine/gdp

Russia has spent an insane amount on this little "SMO" and it is going to cost it even more:

https://www.ft.com/content/1e5d63a6-d5f8-4206-81fc-4ff324789ac3

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Economic_impact_of_the_Russian_invasion_of_Ukraine#:~:text=In November 2022 it was,%24500 million to %241 billion.

Militarily their losses could man and equip a national-level army:

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Casualties_of_the_Russo-Ukrainian_War

https://www.oryxspioenkop.com/2022/02/attack-on-europe-documenting-equipment.html

Neither the Russia economy nor its "partnerships" with India or China are a good thing for that nation.  We have seen a lot of posts to support that.  What do you give us?  "No they aren't, because Su-35s, Ka-52s"...with freakin Iran.

https://www.thenationalnews.com/mena/iran/2023/11/28/iran-claims-delivery-of-russian-su-35-fighter-jets-is-imminent/  Ok, so is this a sign that Russia has so many they can afford to sell them?  Or is it a sign they are desperate for cash and are selling off assets they cannot really get anything out of? Wait, don't bother I think I know your answer.

If you are going to make claims that Russia's economy and/or military are somehow in "better" shape now than they were on 20 Feb 22 you had better start posting some facts to back it up.

What we have heard from you over the last week has been every worst case/perspective strung together to try and make a case...for what exactly?  No counter-thinking, no "here is what I don't know".  In fact you have openly called anything that counters your viewpoint, "Putin propaganda".  If you had just shown up here as a new poster we would have called you out as a pro-Putin disinformation pusher based on what you have been pitching.  Being where you are you get a lot of slack, all the Ukrainian posters do, but this is crossing some lines we try to hold onto in this forum.  Start posting something other than your own opinion.  Start looking at counter-points.  Tell us what you don't know. 

Because speaking for myself...got it: Zeleban is really, really...really sure Ukraine is totally screwed.

 

This is not misinformation. I am only reporting the situation that is happening in my country. It seems to me that most people in the West are still living in 2022 (if not 2021)

[Zeleban]

It seems that information about the political crisis in Ukraine is beginning to go beyond its borders. How do you think this will affect continued support from the West? I'm sure it's not the best

[The_Capt]

7 minutes ago, Zeleban said:

This is not misinformation. I am only reporting the situation that is happening in my country. It seems to me that most people in the West are still living in 2022 (if not 2021)

...as you see it.  My point is that your viewpoint is skewed and not matching other viewpoints.  So you are either terrifyingly ahead of the curve here, or really biased based on personal context.  If we take the former (and I do not think for a moment this is the case), then we should be looking to cut Ukraine loose because it is going down faster than the Afghan Government in 2021.  Cut our loses and take the wins we already have.  The picture you paint is a fragile state under pressure which frankly we have been burned far too many times by in the last 30 years.  The fractures will start internally to Ukraine and will widen to the point that we won't even know who to support anymore.  Make you Russia's problem and drop a new Iron Curtain.  Pivot to the Pacific and try and figure out what to do there.

Edited November 29, 2023 by The_Capt

[Zeleban]

2 minutes ago, The_Capt said:

The picture you paint is a fragile state under pressure which frankly we have been burned far too many times by in the last 30 years.

Damn accurate description of Ukraine

[Zeleban]

 

Look, the Slovaks have decided to improve our difficult economic situation. What else can I say - brothers Slavs

[billbindc]

16 hours ago, Letter from Prague said:

Russia is winning in all metrics they care about -

This part should be interrogated a bit more.

[billbindc]

6 hours ago, Zeleban said:

I recently presented a completely realistic scenario for Ukraine’s return to Russia’s orbit. Putin understands Ukraine much better than Western politicians and knows its weak points very well

This is their 2022 statement. Today it's the other way around. Russia is demonstrating effectiveness at least at the strategic and operational-tactical level. They have clearly learned how to effectively use air support and are now outmaneuvering the Ukrainian generals. And yes, the West is really afraid of Russia (and after the defeat of Ukraine, this fear will intensify many times over) . At least Ukrainians have not laughed at “stupid Russians” for a long time.

 

This sounds like an Austro-Hungarian general, blotto on pálinka, planning world domination. 

And no, the US isn't afraid of Moscow. It's been made clear that the nukes are off the table for anything short of an actual invasion of Russia proper and the bloody incompetence of the Russian armed forces wouldn't let them take on Finland, much less the armed combination of all of NATO. It would be messy but decisively short. 

 

[Harmon Rabb]

10 hours ago, kimbosbread said:

Well, per the ongoing discussion (and demonstrations) of Americans being idiots, can we be surprised? Anybody who has had to deal with the American intelligence agencies, their conferences and their minions is not surprised.

Transnistria and Kaliningrad (and Dagestan and whatever the Chinese part of Russia is) are such obvious, squish soft targets with high payout for low reward I can only imagine terminal idiocy and pussilanimity (sp?) are preventing us from taking advantage.

 

Another area to watch is Bashkortostan, Good Times Bad Times made a very informative video about it recently. Thing is I think this sort of scenario can happen anyway regardless if the West wants Russia to start breaking up or not.

When people think of the potential breakup of the Russian Federation, I think a lot of people thing Chechnya first due to its history being one of the reasons Putin came to power in the first place. But it seems Bashkortostan is also an interesting region to observe.

I’m no Zbigniew Brzezinski but I think that a lot of us here will see some areas of Russia break up in our lifetimes if not a total collapse of the country. As The_Capt always points out in his trademark eloquent and fact-based posts when this topic comes up, this will not be a world of sunshine and unicorns. We will have some serious issues to deal with and I hope our leaders are taking this possibility seriously, especially in Europe.