How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?

[Beleg85]

1 minute ago, Maciej Zwolinski said:

Good old C2H5OH. Looks dead drunk to me.

Yout think? Doesn't look so, walk is too straight and properly grounded. I am sure if I would sit in Ukrainian trench and such zombie would start walking on my position not reacting to bullets, I'd consider leaving the post. Btw. it is very curious how usage of various magical substances other than vodka is widespread in muscovite army now. It was really bad during previous winter.

[billbindc]

10 minutes ago, Beleg85 said:

True to a point, but we are talking about scale and scope of migation that is unprecedented in last generations and only growing stronger. Also Scotts, Germans, Normans and so on were all coming from roughly similar cultural millieu, based on latin concepts/religion/civitas/humanism whatever this thing "European culture" is. To think that people from Africa, Middle East and other completelly different civilizational models will simply integrate- cause we are so awsome, right?- is rather risky assumption. Cultures exists objecively, like it or not; and while most of us can transcend them individually (under right circumstances), it is in our best interest to be more prudent about limits of our integrations, when millions of people are coming to Europe yearly. And it's just a start; climate migrations are ahead of us. Add "D Weapon", fully utilized already by Lukashenka and soon by Russians in Finland. Various autocrats, non-state actors and rogue states know perfectly well where our Achilles heel lies.

Also he didn't mean (I hope at least) nationalism- it's one of great problems with curent western debate, mixing nationalism with nationhood- even smart guys like Tim Snyder don't get it, overusing former label to a point when even French Revolution becomes "peak nationalism". USA is truly different ballpark and integation model, it's political nation focused on progressive Enlightment ideas and born on "open" borders. A different polity than old, closed and tired European nation-states.

But yeah, a complex topic to be sure.

The premier national crisis for nations in the next 50 years will be climate change first but a close second will be demographic decline and the economically vital need for immigration to mitigate it. Nations will learn to successfully integrate immigration or perforce decline.

[Beleg85]

8 minutes ago, billbindc said:

The premier national crisis for nations in the next 50 years will be climate change first but a close second will be demographic decline and the economically vital need for immigration to mitigate it. Nations will learn to successfully integrate immigration or perforce decline.

Yes, and second option is very concerning and more likely. I would truly prefer US integration model ruling in Europe, but first "the Core" would need to be clearly defined that everyone is happy about. In pre-1914 still Christian*  world it was relatively easy, now it is much less; and we can't just social-engineer artificial ideas into brains of billions of people, expecting them to follow. It's not how it works.

*Understood not as religion itself but as system of obvious, civilizational associations.

Edited November 26, 2023 by Beleg85

[ZPB II]

It's not a coincidence that many politicians that opened the path to mass MENA immigration to Europe and opposed nuclear power to keep Europe dependant on Russian energy were KGB assets.

Advocating that Europe should be open to mass MENA migration is a textbook Putinist destabilization tactic.

[kimbosbread]

2 minutes ago, billbindc said:

The premier national crisis for nations in the next 50 years will be climate change first but a close second will be demographic decline and the economically vital need for immigration to mitigate it. Nations will learn to successfully integrate immigration or perforce decline.

There are confounding factors to demographic decline:

• USA, having the most lucrative jobs and real mobility (you can actually be rich), will take your best people (hard working, or smart, or lucky). These are the people you’d like to keep.
• Your economy sucks, so your native inhabitants won’t have kids, and the new immigrants won’t either past the next generation. Europe has fantastic social benefits, in principle, especially wrt to having children. Why does this not work?
• The new immigrants have minimal education and skills needed to power an advanced economy. If they have work ethic that’s great, but if there aren’t any jobs…

Basically, the USA is the best country of all time, and we will take all your best people because they want to come to our country. That is our real superpower.

[billbindc]

10 minutes ago, ZPB II said:

It's not a coincidence that many politicians that opened the path to mass MENA immigration to Europe and opposed nuclear power to keep Europe dependant on Russian energy were KGB assets.

Advocating that Europe should be open to mass MENA migration is a textbook Putinist destabilization tactic.

The perfect mirror image of Putin’s approach to things.

[danfrodo]

A blizzard in UKR today, as foretold by prophesy yesterday in LLF post.  Gives some real Nov 1941 vibes, no?

I don't see how it benefits either side much, though I suppose UKR army has better gear and conditions in general.  Maybe helps side w more/better thermal sights?  Maybe the ground will freeze long enough to allow vehicles.  

[danfrodo]

Interesting article on why F16s matter.  I suspect many here knew all this but I didn't.  Says that F16s w proper radar could put an end to RU using gliding bombs w/o risk.

https://www.dailykos.com/stories/2023/11/26/2207737/-Ukraine-Update-Russian-glide-bombs-are-a-major-problem-F-16s-are-the-solution?pm_campaign=front_page&pm_source=top_news_slot_7&pm_medium=web

 

[sburke]

1 hour ago, Haiduk said:

So, natural right of nation to defend own culture and don't turn into "multicultural Babylon" to be gradually "swallowed" by newcomers is a sign of nazism? As for me this is a sign of nation health. 

You have wrong opinion about Ukrainians, I should say. We never will greeting hordes of non-european culture migrants here. Some Muslim communities live here historically, but they are minor, and they are more "secular Muslims", so they don't make problems for us

Please let it go Haiduk.  This isn't really pushing forward the subject of the thread and is having the opposite affect than I think you would want.

[Harmon Rabb]

Looks like the Russian propaganda campaign that equates all Ukrainians resisting Russia as Nazis is still working. I still hope that Ukrainians treat Russian POWs as per the Geneva Conventions, but personally I would not mind if the perpetrates of this act just be eliminated on the battlefield by the AFU with all the laws of war satisfied.      

As a cinema buff I even suspect I know where the Russian torturers got this idea from, but I really don't feel like making any pop culture references after seeing something like this.                       

Edited November 26, 2023 by Harmon Rabb

[Beleg85]

Regarding Dnieper bridghead

 

[Kinophile]

10 hours ago, LongLeftFlank said:

Well deserved, after their blatant attempted terror attack.

Build that Northern Wall nice and high, Ramaswarmy.

 

Cripes, I didnt realize how fast and far it went. Mental.

[Kinophile]

10 hours ago, Battlefront.com said:

We know for sure Canada had nothing to do with that explosion.  If it had, it would have already apologized for it and promised not to do it again.  On the other hand, it is suspicious that Canada didn't apologize even though it had nothing to do with it.  So maybe it was a double bluff?

Steve

Nothing to see here but us beavers...

[akd]

T-62M getting the obr. 2023 treatment.

 

[Harmon Rabb]

Last time I saw this many rockets mounted on a BMW was when I watched The World Is Not Enough

 

[Kinophile]

But look at the spread. What a pointless waste of ammo. Woop di doo, harassing fire that serves nothing more than background noise. This is a dumb as many Russian efforts.

[The_Capt]

5 hours ago, billbindc said:

To claim that multiculturalism is "Babylon" is a universal precursor to every version of fascist authoritarianism and the idea that cultural change via immigration destroys nations runs up against the obvious example of America as a superpower. Your approach to this subject is flat out Putinist.  

 

Just call this what it is…flat out racism.  I mean it boils down to white versus brown/black(sigh).  A quick internet search shows that “Muslim hordes” in Europe constitute about 5% of the population and may grow to a Christmas-killing 8% by 2030.  Meanwhile European demographics are cratering - and we point fingers at China (insert rolly eyes).

But we all know they will marry all our (white) women and steal our jobs (the ones we cannot fill anyway).  

What is truly baffling is the level of complete inability to see that this position leads directly to “so we are spending billions to keep Ukraine racially pure…wait, what?”  Seriously guys from Ukraine, have a freakin meeting or something.  So far we have had bleak defeatism, shaming-guilt,  fear mongering and now outright racism.  I know things are bad but how is any of this going to make things better?
 

[Battlefront.com]

8 hours ago, dan/california said:

The accuracy of the grenade drops against a moving vehicle is impressive.

It looks like the BMP's commander leapt out after figuring out the driver was hit, leaving the BMP to just coast along as a ghost

Steve

[Battlefront.com]

Serves me right for going to a birthday party today instead of managing the discussion here.

Can we please just walk away from the immigration topic?  Putin definitely is using it as a means of undermining the West and it's been one of the most successful things he's done over the last 12 years to screw up internal politics.  We don't need to feed that beast any more than it already is being fed by right wing.

Let's concentrate on updated 60 year old tanks and dual Maxims on motorcycles.  That's not only more fun, but it is on topic too!

Steve

[Harmon Rabb]

 

1 hour ago, Kinophile said:

But look at the spread. What a pointless waste of ammo. Woop di doo, harassing fire that serves nothing more than background noise. This is a dumb as many Russian efforts.

In all seriousness I really wish Ukrainians would not need to use these kinds of improvised fighting vehicles after this war has been going on for almost two years now.

I just thought a BMW firing rockets was kind of interesting. Don't remember ever seeing anything like that before in real life. But I agree, this does not look terribly effective.

Edited November 27, 2023 by Harmon Rabb
Formatting

[Kinophile]

16 minutes ago, Battlefront.com said:

Serves me right for going to a birthday party today instead of managing the discussion here.

Can we please just walk away from the immigration topic?  Putin definitely is using it as a means of undermining the West and it's been one of the most successful things he's done over the last 12 years to screw up internal politics.  We don't need to feed that beast any more than it already is being fed by right wing.

Let's concentrate on updated 60 year old tanks and dual Maxims on motorcycles.  That's not only more fun, but it is on topic too!

Steve

"See? This is why you can't have nice things..."

Edited November 27, 2023 by Kinophile

[Kinophile]

 

https://www.rferl.org/a/ukraine-combat-medics-life-saving-breakthroughs/32695540.html

Quote

On July 31, opposition lawmaker Solomia Bobrovska said the military's Medical Forces command did not purchase any first-aid kits in 2023, and those provided through international aid were not properly checked.

Ostashchenko dismissed this statement as untrue and said the problems Ukraine faced had no precedents in modern times. At the same time, the General Staff vowed to undertake "several steps and organizational changes designed to solve problems in the field of tactical medicine."

 

Quote

On average, 50 wounded soldiers are brought to the stabilization point daily, but as many as 200 can arrive at times, Marchenko says, adding that 80 percent of wounded suffer from blast injuries caused by mines or artillery fire. Before he spoke with RFE/RL, he had performed three operations, including a leg amputation.

 

Quote

Marchenko's colleague, Volodymyr Veselovskiy, 36, told RFE/RL the team of 20 doctors and paramedics working alongside them had substantially refined the way they work since the beginning of Russia's full-scale invasion. He said the results of transitioning from Soviet-style care to NATO standards were already visible.

 

[chuckdyke]

34 minutes ago, Battlefront.com said:

Let's concentrate on updated 60 year old tanks and dual Maxims on motorcycles.  That's not only more fun, but it is on topic too!

M10 Booker and compare it with a Leopard 1 possibly modernized for the 21st Century. The Leo is maybe 3 tons heavier and have a similar if not the same gun. 

[Harmon Rabb]

With all the evil deeds committed by Putin that we talk about here, it is important to mention good deeds as well.

A Singaporean couple built 500 homes on the Ukrainian frontlines as the war raged around them. Here's how they did it. (businessinsider.com)

 

[dan/california]

 

Quote

 

https://www.nytimes.com/2023/11/20/world/europe/ukrainian-soldiers-stalemate-avdiivka.html

In Ukraine’s Slowed-Down War, Death Comes as Quickly as Ever

Ukraine is facing continual eastern assaults from Russian forces at a bloody cost for both sides, even as the lines on the map barely move.

 

The NYT has published a lot of complete bleep about this war, but it puts out something truly good every so often as well. This is one of the good ones.