How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?

[CAZmaj]

"Russia's plan is luncheon meat somewhere on the Vistula. They want to continue after Ukraine" [SROCZYŃSKI'S INTERVIEWS]
Grzegorz Sroczyński
20/11/2023 11:57

Western governments and the US government already know about the plan to conquer all of Europe. The problem is that societies still do not believe it or deny it, because people want to live a normal life - Grzegorz Sroczyński talks to reserve major Michał Fiszer.
Sroczyński's interviews

Grzegorz Sroczyński: Where are we exactly?
Michał Fiszer: In September 1939. At that time, there was no general awareness that a world war was already underway. The fighting took place in one place - Poland - and European societies believed that Hitler would be satisfied with that. He won't go any further, because what's the point?

Is it like that now?
Just like then, we deny the fact that World War III has started. Even though the Russians don't really hide what their goal is. Recently, an interview with one of the main Russian commanders, General Andrei Mordvichev, was published. "When will this war end?" "Not soon, it will continue, first in Ukraine, and then beyond." "So Ukraine is just a phase?" "Of course."

But what does "and then next" mean?
West. When my son and I - because the two of us are preparing our war analyzes for "Polityka" - wrote this a year ago, there was a huge wave of indignation: what nonsense are they saying, why are they spreading panic?! And just listen to Biden. He already knows.

Know?
That the Russians will not stop in Ukraine, he said this in a speech in Israel . Moreover, now the Americans are intensively informing their allies about this. President Duda also said this clearly on November 11.

Duda said: "Can we be sure that Russian imperialism will stop there, on the Russian-occupied lands of Ukraine? Well, let me tell you straight - not only can we not be sure that it will stop, we can be sure that it will not stop." Do you agree?
It's not about whether I agree. Duda is not saying this because he read my analysis in "Polityka", but the Americans made him aware of it. Biden has access to intelligence information and professional analyzes that we can only dream of. This team of people in the US knows that the Russians want to conquer Western Europe. Recently, Politico and the New York Times described leaks from the US Department of Defense: the Americans approached the Russians to enter into negotiations, they were offered something. There was no response at all. The Russians are not interested in any negotiations or stopping the war. According to them, it's going well: they've dug in and are waiting. They believe that at some point, Western aid will end, Ukraine will fall, and they'll move on. If Biden didn't know that this was Putin's plan, what would be the point of all this? Insisting on further packages for Ukraine do not gain him electoral points at all. Quite the opposite. Same with Duda. Why would he care? People don't want to hear such things and be afraid.

So politicians know?
The governments in Europe know and the US government knows. The problem is that societies still do not believe it or deny it, because people want to live a normal life.

And Russia will not hesitate to attack Poland?
Why would she hesitate?

Because he will get a fifth from NATO.
Will not get. From who?

From the USA.
The Americans have half the army of Russia. And if Trump wins, I don't know if they will send anything here.

They will send.
All right. Let's say that Biden wins, or that Trump only talks like that and he sends troops. How much can Americans send to Europe in an emergency?

I don't know.
They need to maintain reserves in case of war with China, so they will send a maximum of seven or eight divisions. And the Russians have about 30 divisions, including the conversion divisions, i.e. three brigades as one division.

How many soldiers is that?
A division consists of 10-15 thousand people.

So the US will send a maximum of 100,000?
100,000 soldiers in combat units, 50,000 in logistic units, 50,000 in aviation units. With the Navy, I don't think it would be more than a quarter of a million.

That's probably a lot. And wouldn't that be bull****?
The Russians now have 800,000.

Well, during the war in Ukraine we learned that technological advantage and the quality of weapons are decisive. Modern equipment is a hundred times more important than masses of cannon fodder.
The thing is, we ended up finding out the opposite. Ukraine received Western weapons much better than Russian ones, but this did not play a major role on the battlefield. A technological advantage can somewhat compensate for a smaller military force, but only within certain limits. If the quantity difference is large, the quality cannot cope with it at all. And this is the real lesson from this war.

If there was a war between Russia and NATO, it would not involve any sophisticated operations or brilliant strategies that the West had imagined long ago during the Cold War, but something similar to what is happening now in Ukraine: a mincemeat somewhere on the Vistula River.

Meatball on the Vistula River?
They would attack, sending tens of thousands of people every day to attack from that shore. Because before the reinforcement forces reached us, before we acquired fighting skills, they would definitely have reached the Vistula, no matter what we did. A country that has not participated in a war for a long time always makes a lot of mistakes at the beginning of the fight. Only then does it start to work better and adapt to the conditions and draw conclusions. The Russians have already done this, because at this point they are veterans. However, we would be newbies.

But why would they attack NATO and go further West?
Because in order to play a role in the world, they cannot have competition in the form of healthy countries. They themselves are a criminal, mafia, corrupt state, full of terrible chaos and carelessness, so they will always be pariahs in the surroundings of Western European countries. And they don't want to be pariahs, but a dominant country. That is why they wrote in their new doctrine that Russia's goal will be to create a multipolar world, and although it is not stated directly, it can be read between the lines that it is about such a division: Russia takes Europe, China takes Asia, both share Africa , and Let the Americans linger on those two continents, let them mind their own business in the North and the South. In such a world, the Russians would be able to emerge as a superpower and cannot compete with the West. They hate the West.

And they want to invade the West?
Eliminate it in its current form. And introduce Russian peace. Then there will be peace, no one will compare that people have it better in the West, and if they have it better, why is the government doing what it is doing in our country, why is there dishonesty and corruption in our country? This normal environment needs to be abolished and then everyone will think that the whole world is constructed this way.

But how do we know that if they win in Ukraine, they want to move on? What are the signals?
For example, they talk about it on TV every day. Just watch their programs. "Solovyov Live". "60 Minutes". Or Margarita Simonian, who outdoes herself. But I recommend Sołowiow, he leads interesting discussions. For example, he invited Russian professors, including President Putin's adviser on military affairs, and the discussion went like this: "Okay, Ukraine, then Poland, that's already known, but then Germany or the Balkans? What do you think?" "Professor, after Poland, should we take Berlin or Sarajevo first?" Russian professors discuss things this way.

This is a deliberate scare, propaganda!
Sure, you can console yourself that way. They made the same threats against Georgia, right? So, did they enter or not? Then they threatened Ukraine in the same way... They say what they will do. When will we finally learn this? How will they approach Brussels?

How are they doing in Ukraine now?
I already said: they think it's good. They hold on to their positions, send further attacks on the Ukrainians, the Ukrainians are losing strength, they are losing strength too, even faster, but they don't worry about it, because they have much more. Let Trump win in the United States and say that Europe should defend itself, because we don't care about Ukraine - and withhold aid. Europe will not be able to cope on its own and Ukraine will eventually fall. Then the Russians move on without stopping.

Without stopping?
They started preparing for war with the entire NATO. They want to do it right away, because they know that with each month of downtime after the annexation of Ukraine, the advantage of the West - terrified and desperate - would increase. Because if an arms race were to start seriously, the West would have a much more efficient economy, more innovative, and we would have a much better industrial and scientific base. That's why they want to do it right away in Ukraine and aim to march to the West in 2026 or 2027. Their plans for developing the armed forces go far beyond the needs of the war in Ukraine. They create new military districts, new armies based on corps, in these corps they transform former brigades into divisions, i.e. they triple their size, and they admit a huge number of students to officers' schools. After the presidential elections next year, they will probably announce open general mobilization so that over the next two or three years the newly formed forces will become more polished and combat ready. They introduce old types of weapons into production.

Why the old ones?
They are no longer able to make newer ones because they used many imported components, so they decided that they would switch the factory lines to the production of old models, all the iron that can be thrown at the front. If it is possible to produce an old tank again that does not need modern technologies, then they produce it. They will bombard us with numbers, they will create a large army, when Ukraine falls, all this can be thrown at Poland and continue the mincemeat until the end. And we will see how long the Belgians will endure in the trenches.

Trump leads in the polls. In the few states that decide the presidency, he has a solid lead over Biden: 10 percentage points in Nevada, five points in Arizona, five in Michigan, six in Georgia, four in Pennsylvania. What would happen if Europe were left alone with Russia? Can't cope without the USA? 27 countries won't send a decent army to defend themselves against invasion?
He'll put something up. But what armed forces does Germany currently have? Well, they have half of the Polish army. Even less. They have a special division, which includes an airborne brigade, a mountain infantry brigade and a special forces brigade. In addition, they have two semi-mechanized armored divisions. And that's all. We in Poland will be building six divisions, and now we actually have four.

But France, Italy, Spain?
It's been counted. Together with America, we can put up about as much as Russia throws at us.

And without America?
We will have less and the Russians will have a quantitative advantage at the start. Turkey has the strongest army in Europe, almost as many troops as the rest of Europe, but it is unclear how Erdogan will behave. He will probably send troops, but the question is how many. Greece has a large army, but pro-Russian sympathies dominate there, we don't know how they will behave. The Italians, Spaniards and French have armies the size of Poland's, the British a little smaller. We slept in Europe for 30 years, we were fooled. "Putin only scares." "Putin is not dangerous." "You can do business with the Russians." And it ended up that we are almost defenseless. The Russians are constantly creating new units, Europe is also slowly waking up and expanding its own forces.

What would have to happen for you to be able to write a text saying that everything is fine?
The point is that the Ukrainians will manage to do the job for us and save Europe. So that it becomes the Poland of 1920. European governments - as I said - fortunately know what is coming. The Germans allocated huge amounts of money to the army, the French canceled the great army reform in order to redo it for the war with Russia, the Swedes explicitly wrote in their defense doctrine that, as a NATO member, they would probably have to send troops to defend their allies in Europe, because in the event of the fall of Ukraine, the Russian attack is inevitable. So governments have woken up, but societies are still unaware and think: it's impossible.

And what to do?
Provide Ukraine with far-reaching support.

After all, this support is provided all the time.
Too little and too slow. The commander-in-chief of the Ukrainian armed forces, Valery Zaluzhny, said what they need to gain an advantage on the battlefield. Firstly, they need planes to take the initiative in the sky, secondly, they need faster training of troops and faster equipping of soldiers with equipment, thirdly, help in developing techniques for overcoming minefields and breaking fortifications, fourthly, more precision missile systems, and the last point is systems for electronic closeup. These points are interconnected, because a greater possibility of interference and electronic warfare means support for aviation - interference makes it more difficult for the Russians to defend themselves against aircraft.

But all this - all the help Załużny is talking about - seems to be within the reach of Western countries.
Yes.

And this is not done?
How many tanks will Ukrainians get in 2023? About three hundred. And the Russians provided their troops with almost seven hundred tanks. You can't win this war like that.

Shouldn't NATO just stop pretending it's not a party and send the army there?
Not yet. But if the Russians somehow started winning decisively, it would be in NATO's interest - instead of waiting for them to come here - to organize defense on the Dnieper. And then the West must tell Russia: not one step further. Take advantage of our technological advantage and the increased number of joint troops together with the Ukrainians. And then, together, start retaking the areas lost by Ukraine.

Will Putin then drop nuclear weapons on these joint troops?
He won't cum. Because he is aware that if he uses nuclear weapons against NATO troops, he will receive such blows that would lead to the annihilation of Russian troops.

Strikes with nuclear weapons?
NATO would respond at the same level. But the Russians do not have to resort to nuclear weapons, they simply believe that a soldier from Norilsk will survive a much longer winter in the trenches than a Belgian soldier from a villa on the outskirts of Brussels.

So what should we do now?
Understand that we are next in line and not delude ourselves that Putin will negotiate. Because there are voices like: okay, let him take what he already has, the rest of Ukraine will be accepted into NATO, the Ukrainians - so that we can accept them - will give up these areas and there will be peace. But the Russians are not interested in such a thing. They are not interested in Bakhmut or Severodonetsk, they are interested in Warsaw and Berlin.

We need to ramp up arms production in Western countries. New units need to be formed, the armed forces and infrastructure need to be expanded. And we must always remember that investing in Ukrainian troops is an investment in our own defense. This is not a gift to Ukraine. Western planes should have been flying there a long time ago, there were still fears that the Russians would treat it as an escalation and start escalating themselves, but meanwhile they don't need any excuse. And so they escalate whenever they want. 

So we have a situation where Russia has de facto declared war on NATO, and NATO is pretending that this is not the case?
They haven't formally declared it, but yes - they have a plan to attack Western countries, i.e. NATO, after Ukraine. For Russia, this is an ideological war, a modern version of the Great Patriotic War, they are convinced that they are fighting for their own survival as a country important in the world. And they assume that at some point they will fight the entire NATO. They keep telling their citizens about it on TV. They prepare them for this.

Where would you send your youngest son if anything?
Recently, after an article in "Polityka", a man from Białowieża, who is building a house there, wrote to me in this spirit. "A beautiful place to live, but does it make sense?" I myself push away the thought of what I would do if they came here to Poland, occupied the areas leading to the Vistula, then dug in, set mines and they couldn't be kicked out. In Ukraine, they have built such a tangle of trenches and minefields that they can sit and fight until they die.

What did you reply?
Well, I don't know what to reply to him. Something like we have to believe that we will defeat them in Ukraine and do everything to make it happen.

So where?
Kids? To Germany. To buy time. And then further. We keep pushing it away from each other and I push it away in the same way, but when writing about Ukraine I have to analyze it all, put two and two together and it always comes to four, I don't want it any other way.

Four means what?
That they want to come here right after Ukraine.

And how will it end? Are you a pessimist or an optimist?
Still, an optimist. What is the reason for my optimism? Paradoxically, these scary statements made by politicians. Because if they already know, they will act. And let's hope something comes out of it. They will expand the armed forces, ramp up arms production, and will not let Ukraine fall. If Ukraine has the entire West behind it, maybe the Russians will exhaust their resources first.

***

Michał Fiszer  (1962) is a former military pilot and instructor on Su-22 supersonic aircraft. Lecturer at Collegium Civitas, columnist for military specialist press, regular collaborator of Polityka.pl. He is the author, together with his son Jacek Fiszer, of a series of articles in "Polityka" commenting on the war in Ukraine.

https://wiadomosci.gazeta.pl/wiadomosci/7,114884,30422174,plan-rosji-to-mielonka-gdzies-na-wisle-po-ukrainie-chca-z.html?fbclid=IwAR2BZ3urOaUSXzTzex4KWJAtBslMkDGcUH7Hue6_IFcT8z1n7uObdetzabY

[Beleg85]

10 minutes ago, CAZmaj said:

Michał Fiszer  (1962) is a former military pilot and instructor on Su-22 supersonic aircraft. Lecturer at Collegium Civitas, columnist for military specialist press, regular collaborator of Polityka.pl. He is the author, together with his son Jacek Fiszer, of a series of articles in "Polityka" commenting on the war in Ukraine.

Very, very criticized text in domestic sphere for lack of fact-checking, dramatic and false analogies and subjective conclusions; he is not a proper analysts with methodology but military commenator for several popular newspapers. Adittionally, suffers greatly from relative lack of Air battles in this war. At least Tom Cooper knew when to turn into ground warfare analysts.;)

Not worth to bother really, Fiszer long time ago flew away, like several other public commentators here; some of them with generals' epoulettes. I seriously pass 80% of them at this moment; they a]re only relatively good at their respective narrow specializations and technicalities. Oterwise they are like those Jewish rabbis from jokes: "This or that will happen, unless it will not happen. Who knows?"

Edited November 25, 2023 by Beleg85

[Harmon Rabb]

3 minutes ago, Beleg85 said:

Very, very criticized text in domestic sphere for lack of fact-checking, dramatic and false analogies and subjective conclusions; he is not a proper analysts with methodology but military commenator for several popular newspapers. Adittionally, suffers greatly from relative lack of Air battles in this war. At least Tom Cooper knew when to turn into ground warfare analysts.;)

Not worth to bother, Fiszer long time ago flew away, like several other public commentators here; some of them with generals' epoulettes.

General Waldemar Skrzypczak?

I seem to recall you did not agree with his views on Belarus when I posted those here.

But yes good to have a local perspective here from someone who knows characters from your country better than us foreigners.

[Beleg85]

1 minute ago, Harmon Rabb said:

General Waldemar Skrzypczak?

Shot of vodka on my cost for a gentleman, for quick reaction.

 

[Zeleban]

 

[dan/california]

 

[sburke]

3 hours ago, CAZmaj said:

"Russia's plan is luncheon meat somewhere on the Vistula. They want to continue after Ukraine" [SROCZYŃSKI'S INTERVIEWS]
Grzegorz Sroczyński
20/11/2023 11:57

Western governments and the US government already know about the plan to conquer all of Europe. The problem is that societies still do not believe it or deny it, because people want to live a normal life - Grzegorz Sroczyński talks to reserve major Michał Fiszer.
Sroczyński's interviews

Yep as soon as they conquer Kiev, they will be heading further west!  Any day now... just a little further!

[Beleg85]

36 minutes ago, sburke said:

Yep as soon as they conquer Kiev, they will be heading further west!  Any day now... just a little further!

Where are we exactly?
 In September 1939 [...]

So where?
Kids? To Germany. To buy time.

 

Now not to kick the dead horse too much, text has several fairly accurate points. Western populations do indeed underestimate Russian danger in various forms and political/military leaders still seriously underappreciate Putin's resolve to break their internaitonal order. Brain washing in Russia is absolutelly terrible, moving forward and very concerning too. Also dangers of Trump presidency looming on horizon are real enough. None of it is particulary new, though. The rest is best met with silence.

Edited November 26, 2023 by Beleg85

[Kraft]

1 hour ago, sburke said:

Yep as soon as they conquer Kiev, they will be heading further west!  Any day now... just a little further!

I believe any of those plans are really not all that likely while SMO goals have not been fullfilled.

However

US troops will not deploy in the hundred thousands to die by FPV drones in a muddy trench if Trump is elected.

Whatever else Europe has (left) in terms of military is tiny in scale and wouldnt stand a few months of current war attrition. 

How many Germans, French, Hungarian.. citizens would really give their lives for say Lithuania? Russia is absolutely fine throwing a thousand lives away per day, are europeans too?

All it takes is some political instability in Europe and mass mobilisation in Russia, which by the absolute lack of anti war movement doesnt seem that unsuccessfull in pulling off.

Edited November 26, 2023 by Kraft

[akd]

T-90M “Escape Room”

[Harmon Rabb]

8 hours ago, Zeleban said:

Something like this

Video of the improvised fighting vehicle you posted in action. Every damn terror drones taken out can mean a life saved.

Edited November 26, 2023 by Harmon Rabb

[Kinophile]

Quote

The Americans have half the army of Russia

Okay. This guy is a silly little dummy.

[sross112]

1 hour ago, Kraft said:

I believe any of those plans are really not all that likely while SMO goals have not been fullfilled.

However

US troops will not deploy in the hundred thousands to die by FPV drones in a muddy trench if Trump is elected.

Whatever else Europe has (left) in terms of military is tiny in scale and wouldnt stand a few months of current war attrition. 

How many Germans, French, Hungarian.. citizens would really give their lives for say Lithuania? Russia is absolutely fine throwing a thousand lives away per day, are europeans too?

All it takes is some political instability in Europe and mass mobilisation in Russia, which by the absolute lack of anti war movement doesnt seem that unsuccessfull in pulling off.

Maybe the best thing for Europe and NATO security would be if someone in the US got elected that decided to pull the US out. Then those countries would have to do a serious look at their militaries and actually get on the same page for their mutual security. Russia has proven that she is not the Soviet Union and it is doubtful they could ever get to that point, so there is no reason a united NATO of only European countries couldn't defend itself against Russian aggression as that is the only real threat to Europe.

Now I'm not saying I agree with it or that I would want to see that someone in that office, but after all the glaring deficiencies that have been shown by this conflict in both the militaries and the arms industries maybe it would be the kick start Europe needs to rely on itself and clean up some of the messes they have (not knocking on the Germans in this forum, but the German military and especially procurement could certainly use an overhaul to just name one). They would be criminally negligent not getting things straightened out after this anyway to stand on their own. All it takes is a full scale commitment to a war in the Pacific and the US would be of little help against Russia anyway, other than nuclear deterrent.

[The_Capt]

1 hour ago, Beleg85 said:

Where are we exactly?
 In September 1939 [...]

So where?
Kids? To Germany. To buy time.

 

Now not to kick the dead horse too much, text has several fairly accurate points. Western populations do indeed underestimate Russian danger in various forms and political/military leaders still seriously underappreciate Putin's resolve to break their internaitonal order. Brain washing in Russia is absolutelly terrible, moving forward and very concerning too. Also dangers of Trump presidency looming on horizon are real enough. None of it is particulary new, though. The rest is best met with silence.

Gotta be honest, I was a lot more worried about Russian aggression about 22 months ago.  Most people who hand wring over this do not understand NATO or what it really means.  It is the military alliance that secures and guarantees “The West”.  NATO nations comprises a block of nations of almost 1 Billion people who are also heavily invested in each other’s economies.  It does not matter which US president gets in, they all like the money.  And money needs stability and order to fully exploit.  If NATO falls apart then the whole Ponzi scheme falls apart

So What?  The single greatest weakness in The West is a willingness to sacrifice.  So general f#ckery by China or Russia outside of the western sphere gets tolerated in cycles of fading influence largely a victim of ignorance and apathy.  But losing NATO would mean enormous risk and sacrifice on our part, ones that we are not willing to accept.  Forcing The West’s hand is the last thing Putin wants to do.

So if Russia gets cocky and tries to make a run on Berlin, one of two things will happen: NATO will fail, or WW3.  One does not stick one’s toe in or creep into NATO in an overt manner.  It is a binary equation.

As to Russian military threat.  Well it is getting its @ss handed to it by a nation 1/4 its size held together by cash, good will and a freakin Mad Hatter’s menagerie of military support.  Assuming Ukraine collapses (somehow) how Russia would expect to take what they have left and somehow assault an opponent 6 times larger (https://www.worlddata.info/alliances/nato.php#:~:text=In addition to the USA,percent of the world's population.) and over 20 times as wealthy is beyond me.  The RA can’t mount a decent tactical victory after months of  trying but “once they get done with Ukraine they will cut through Europe like prunes through a short grandmother”?  It borders on disinformation to be honest.

Should we take threat’s seriously? Absolutely.  But let’s make sure they are really threats and not jumping at shadows.  We got all sorts of problems, we do not need to manufacture ones.

[kimbosbread]

2 hours ago, Kraft said:

Whatever else Europe has (left) in terms of military is tiny in scale and wouldnt stand a few months of current war attrition. 

How many Germans, French, Hungarian.. citizens would really give their lives for say Lithuania? Russia is absolutely fine throwing a thousand lives away per day, are europeans too?

All it takes is some political instability in Europe and mass mobilisation in Russia, which by the absolute lack of anti war movement doesnt seem that unsuccessfull in pulling off.

I think the Baltics and Poland and Finns and Czechs absolutely would care. But yeah, the rest of the EU is pretty pusilanimous.

39 minutes ago, The_Capt said:

So if Russia gets cocky and tries to make a run on Berlin, one of two things will happen: NATO will fail, or WW3.  One does not stick one’s toe in or creep into NATO in an overt manner.  It is a binary equation.

Alternatively, Grand Suisse! People like to forget that perhaps the most warlike people in Europe in the last millenia have only recently occupied themselves with making cuckoo clocks and crappy chocolate, but that merely masks their terrible martial nature. Sure, they disguise it with male earrings and lisps and women with mommy haircuts, but don’t be fooled!

EDIT: For the record, as an isolationist leaning conservative, I think it’s critical that the EU stops outsourcing defense to the US and sacks up. Japan, SK and Taiwan certainly have a more realistic outlook.

Edited November 26, 2023 by kimbosbread

[LongLeftFlank]

2 hours ago, sross112 said:

 after all the glaring deficiencies that have been shown by this conflict in both the militaries and the arms industries maybe it would be the kick start Europe needs to rely on itself and clean up some of the messes they have (not knocking on the Germans in this forum, but the German military and especially procurement could certainly use an overhaul to just name one). They would be criminally negligent not getting things straightened out after this anyway to stand on their own. All it takes is a full scale commitment to a war in the Pacific and the US would be of little help against Russia anyway, other than nuclear deterrent.

Matt Stoller is a bit of a one-note trumpet on monopolies and merger mania (though it's a very real problem), but interesting points here. 

https://www.thebignewsletter.com/p/why-america-is-out-of-ammunition

Wall Street and private equity firms prioritize cash out first, and that means a once functioning and nimble industrial base now produces more grift than anything else.... today government cash goes increasingly to stock buybacks rather than actual armaments.

The government can’t actually solicit bids from multiple players for most major weapons systems, because there’s just one or two possible bidders. So that means there’s little incentive for firms to expand output, even if there’s more spending. Why not just raise price?

the DOD is almost totally blind to the corporate owners of contractors and subcontractors, which might be one reason that, say, Chinese alloys are being discovered in sensitive weapons systems like the state of the art F-35.  

https://www.wbur.org/onpoint/2023/03/01/the-last-supper-how-a-1993-pentagon-dinner-reshaped-the-defense-industry

Good NPR piece from early 2023, recounting the history of how America got here; it all seemed to make sense at the time.

Edited November 26, 2023 by LongLeftFlank

[kimbosbread]

To be fair to stock buybacks, that’s basically because they are more efficient taxwise. If our society didn’t encourage financialization of everything (ie financing a toaster, or pretty much anything else), we would be in a different spot.

Also, to be fair to our industry, we produce tons of stuff, but the defense industry is a giant jobs program first and foremost.

[Kraft]

2 hours ago, The_Capt said:

 It does not matter which US president gets in, they all like the money.  

Not sure how reputable this source is https://www.rollingstone.com/politics/politics-features/donald-trump-u-s-leave-nato-1234860016/

But according to them, Trump, even after the invasion, wants to get rid of article 5 or else pull out of NATO, if reelected.

Quote

Trump would repeatedly scoff at this collective-defense clause of the North Atlantic Treaty, known as Article 5. 

Trump then vented that “starting World War III” over some of these [smaller NATO] countries’ sovereignty made absolutely no sense, and that he shouldn’t be forced to automatically commit American troops to any such crisis.

---

Quote

As to Russian military threat.  Well it is getting its @ss handed to it by a nation 1/4 its size held together by cash, good will and a freakin Mad Hatter’s menagerie of military support.  Assuming Ukraine collapses (somehow) how Russia would expect to take what they have left and somehow assault an opponent 6 times larger (https://www.worlddata.info/alliances/nato.php#:~:text=In addition to the USA,percent of the world's population.) and over 20 times as wealthy is beyond me.  The RA can’t mount a decent tactical victory after months of  trying but “once they get done with Ukraine they will cut through Europe like prunes through a short grandmother”?  It borders on disinformation to be honest.

Money means only so much though, how could the Taliban take Kabul, since their army got subsidised by 90 billions in aid and two decades of training from the best army in the world - if the soldiers dont fight its worthless.

Why would Germany or Italy commit to a fight for Lithuania with a thousand KIA each day - If not even a quarter would fight for their own country? 

https://winmr.com/willingness-to-fight-for-ones-own-country-and-attitudes-towards-safety-and-war/ survey from after the Invasion.

The budget of the Bundeswehr plays a very minor role in that. You can force conscript the males and throw them like Shtorm-Z away. I doubt they would perform any better than the unmotivated russian rabble that is dying right now, they dont complain about it atleast, doubt that would be the case for the guy who was living a great comfortable high end life before, his family will not be happy with a bag of potatoes

As to actual size, ie how many soldiers/km, not how expensive his procurement program was, I think europe would be far behind in active combatants if Russia does mobilise.

But it will not come to that anyway, as Ukraine will not collapse

Edited November 26, 2023 by Kraft

[LongLeftFlank]

15 hours ago, LongLeftFlank said:

Get your own cheap Shaheds and start targeting  fixed infra in Russian territory. See how they like freezing in the dark in Kursk.

 

Prophecy!!!!!

Thread:

https://nitter.net/PStyle0ne1/status/1728646861114712287#m

 

Edited November 26, 2023 by LongLeftFlank

[LongLeftFlank]

4 hours ago, kimbosbread said:

Also, to be fair to our industry, we produce tons of stuff, but the defense industry is a giant jobs program first and foremost.

 

Sad!©

And hey, while I wait for @The_Capt to come stomp on me again, may as well go all-in on Declinism.

 

 

Edited November 26, 2023 by LongLeftFlank

[Hapless]

Oh boy, here we go:

 

[The_Capt]

6 hours ago, Kraft said:

Not sure how reputable this source is https://www.rollingstone.com/politics/politics-features/donald-trump-u-s-leave-nato-1234860016/

But according to them, Trump, even after the invasion, wants to get rid of article 5 or else pull out of NATO, if reelected.

---

Money means only so much though, how could the Taliban take Kabul, since their army got subsidised by 90 billions in aid and two decades of training from the best army in the world - if the soldiers dont fight its worthless.

Why would Germany or Italy commit to a fight for Lithuania with a thousand KIA each day - If not even a quarter would fight for their own country? 

https://winmr.com/willingness-to-fight-for-ones-own-country-and-attitudes-towards-safety-and-war/ survey from after the Invasion.

The budget of the Bundeswehr plays a very minor role in that. You can force conscript the males and throw them like Shtorm-Z away. I doubt they would perform any better than the unmotivated russian rabble that is dying right now, they dont complain about it atleast, doubt that would be the case for the guy who was living a great comfortable high end life before, his family will not be happy with a bag of potatoes

As to actual size, ie how many soldiers/km, not how expensive his procurement program was, I think europe would be far behind in active combatants if Russia does mobilise.

But it will not come to that anyway, as Ukraine will not collapse

Trump is playing to his base, it is theatre.  Even he is not dumb enough to destroy NATO because it is the largest arms market on the planet.  He talks  but in his single term, that is about all he did.  It spooked people but in the end US spending on NATO remained static.  And now the US and Europe have an actual reason to invest in NATO.

As to willingness to fight, well the US just fought two of the longest wars in its history, on the other side of the planet, for a whole lot less reasons than Russia is providing it.  In fact an overt Russian war in NATO might help fix the political divides in the US.  The first US soldiers killed in this Russian invasion are going to give cause to both sides of the aisles.

As to numbers.  Well, if only 10% of NATO nations are willing to fight, that is about 100 million people.  If we can only put 10% of that into the field that is 10 million troops. Given the crazy defence/offence ratios we are seeing, for Russia to not die on the start line it will need somewhere around half its current population to have a hope of breaking a NATO defence in depth.  And this is before we even bring nuclear weapons into the discussion.  And all this after Russia shattered its hands in Ukraine.  The RA of 2023 is nowhere near the RA of 2022.

I mean let’s just cut the BS on all this.  This entire narrative “Russia is going to roll on over Europe and we will let it because: Trump/we are weak and pitiful” is nothing more than a pretty transparent attempt at fear mongering to motivate people to call their congressman or member of parliament and go “oh good gosh we had better support Ukraine or we will be next!”

Stop it.  Like guilt and shaming this is just a bad approach that is more likely to push support the other way.  How about we support Ukraine because 1) it is in our interests to contain Russia, 2) it is in our interests to be seen containing Russia, by China and 3) it is the right thing to do.  No amount of guilting or whatever is going to work.  If we can’t/wont do 1,2 and 3 then the West is doomed anyway.

[Haiduk]

The video of Shakheds attack repelling at Saturday morning. First time air-burst AA shells were spotted. Probably this is a work of newest Rheinmetal "Skynex" or "Skyranger 30"  

 

 

Edited November 26, 2023 by Haiduk

[The_Capt]

3 hours ago, LongLeftFlank said:

Sad!©

And hey, while I wait for @The_Capt to come stomp on me again, may as well go all-in on Declinism.

 

 

Wow we moved onto US Bashing Day fast.

[Haiduk]

According to Defense Express Russia launches serial production of new helicopter-type UAV "Termit". This one, very similar to reduced copy of MD500 can carry three laser guided missiles, having 6 km of range. Speed - 150 km/h. Reportedly "Termit" project was started as far as before the war and now it went to finish line.

Sanctions, eh?