How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?

[chrisl]

1 hour ago, Fenris said:

I imagine tactical glasses or goggles doing augmented rather than full virtual reality could be helpful.  Have to keep the HUD very simple, compass at the top of the viewed area, red dots show range/direction of enemies etc.  Most games have stuff like this already so no need to re-invent the wheel.  I wouldn't be surprised if we see things like this is our lifetime with a human operated drone per squad to start with and then eventually autonomous drones and finally drone networks doing precision weapon guidance at range with human infantry only moving in to mop up.

Edit to add - the precision weapons will include swarms of available killer drones waiting to strike, like the allies did with the cab rank system after Normandy.  The beginnings are here, I'll just link this, the second clip is longer and includes the first.  It's graphic footage of drones striking infantry as seen from another surveillance drone.

https://twitter.com/i/status/1725921479882101234

 

The air force isn't going to like being reduced to freight drivers delivering pallets of drones (that deploy on the way down) for the guys on the ground to direct and eyes/ears providing operational and theater scale ISR. That's probably a bigger barrier than the technology.

[JonS]

7 minutes ago, chrisl said:

The air force isn't going to like being reduced to freight drivers delivering pallets of drones (that deploy on the way down) for the guys on the ground to direct and eyes/ears providing operational and theater scale ISR. That's probably a bigger barrier than the technology.

Lol, true. But is that really any different to the freight-haulage service they're already providing for JTACs?

[chrisl]

16 minutes ago, JonS said:

Lol, true. But is that really any different to the freight-haulage service they're already providing for JTACs?

When it's actual pallets of freight it will be more obvious to them.

[Battlefront.com]

UAVs take the fun out of making decoys!  Back in the old days of high altitude survaliance these probably would have looked like legit targets, but to a drone it's pretty clear that they are a bunch of oil drums ducktaped together:

Steve

[Battlefront.com]

Another Ukrainian drone strike on Moscow tonight.  Can't tell from the video if what we're seeing is a downed drone or if it it something just off the highway.

 

Steve

[Battlefront.com]

Bellingcat report on Ukraine's use of facial recognition services to identify over 230,000 Russian service personnel who have been in Ukraine:

 

Steve

[Battlefront.com]

Another Avdiivka attack hit hard.  Apparently this was SW of the town and happened within the last day or two:

Steve

[The_Capt]

3 minutes ago, Battlefront.com said:

Another Avdiivka attack hit hard.  Apparently this was SW of the town and happened within the last day or two:

Steve

Gawd, driving an AFV or tank over an open field is pure suicide in this war.

[Kinophile]

1 hour ago, Battlefront.com said:

UAVs take the fun out of making decoys!  Back in the old days of high altitude survaliance these probably would have looked like legit targets, but to a drone it's pretty clear that they are a bunch of oil drums ducktaped together:

Steve

jesus, at least paint the damn things.

"We are lucky they are so ****ing stupid"...

[Beleg85]

1 hour ago, Battlefront.com said:

Another Avdiivka attack hit hard.  Apparently this was SW of the town and happened within the last day or two:

POV: you prefer to be an infantryman mobik assaulting on foot or a tanker inside a vehicle crossing the open field with knowledge that every enemy drone around see you?

Damn, in this war even being artilleryman sucks.

One can only wander what Russians in those vehicles think. It doesn't seem they have large chances of survival.

[dan/california]

4 minutes ago, Beleg85 said:

POV: you prefer to be an infantryman mobik assaulting on foot or a tanker inside a vehicle crossing the open field with knowledge that every enemy drone around see you?

Damn, in this war even being artilleryman sucks.

One can only wander what Russians in those vehicles think. It doesn't seem they have large chances of survival.

One of my biggest questions is do the Russians doing these assaults actually understand the odds? Or is the Russian army trying to shove fresh meat into the grinder before they understand what their chances actually are?

[The_Capt]

1 hour ago, Beleg85 said:

POV: you prefer to be an infantryman mobik assaulting on foot or a tanker inside a vehicle crossing the open field with knowledge that every enemy drone around see you?

Damn, in this war even being artilleryman sucks.

One can only wander what Russians in those vehicles think. It doesn't seem they have large chances of survival.

I had noticed a weird behaviour in the RA tanks pretty much since the beginning: open hatches.  We have seen stream after stream of UA drones dropping munitions into open hatches.  Hell we saw one where the damned UAS itself flew right down into one.  Given the prevalence of artillery and normal small arms threats I could not figure out why the RA tankers were driving around with hatches open.  A few poorly trained would make sense but we have seen this repeatedly.  Why keep the things open when UAS threat is so obvious?

Confluence of reasons I suspect.  First situational awareness, Russian tanks are famous for crappy vision and optics.  Second and more important is that the lethality of ATGMs, UAS, mines and artillery is so high that most tankers are going into battle ready to jump out at a moments notice.  They are heading into battle knowing the damned things are magnets and are leaving hatches open so they have a chance of getting out even if it means a direct UAS drop.  Third RA tanks are infamous cook-off machines.  We have seen enough turret throwing to know that survivability in those tanks is very poor and risk of secondary fires is high.

As we watch video after video of mechanized forces getting cut to pieces all under the watchful eyes of UAS ISR it kinda makes sense as a battlefield adaptation.  Tankers want to basically have one foot outside the tank at all times to have a chance of getting out.  This also matches RA infantry dismounting IFVs well back from an objective and walking in.  Much safer than getting lit up trapped inside the vehicle.

It almost like we are seeing what the machine gun and fast artillery did to infantry formations in WW1.  We are seeing a similar effect on mechanized formation in this war.  Write your letter home and leave it back with HQ, say goodbye to each other and go over the top at the sound of the whistle.

Edited November 20, 2023 by The_Capt

[Battlefront.com]

This from ISW's November 19th report.  It is relevant to the recent conversation about Russia's problems with DLPR combat forces integration:

Quote

The Russian Ministry of Defense (MoD) may be censoring irregular Russian armed formations as part of its ongoing efforts to formalize Russia’s irregular forces and establish greater control over the Russian information space. The Donetsk People’s Republic (DNR) “Vostok” Battalion claimed on November 19 that the DNR's Internal Affairs Ministry issued a censorship order, prohibiting the battalion from “showing its life and work.”[13] The “Vostok” Battalion is currently serving in the Donetsk-Zaporizhia Oblast border area and provides near-daily updates on the situation in their sector of the front.[14] The DNR Internal Ministry may be administering the censorship order as part of the Russian MoD’s ongoing efforts to formalize the DNR/Luhansk People’s Republic (LNR) People’s Militias into the Russian armed forces, which has previously trigger backlash within the Russian information space.[15] ISW has extensively reported on the Kremlin’s ongoing censorship efforts targeting Russian milbloggers and state media.[16]

Russia is 9 years into this conflict, having created and managed DLPR forces since the very beginning, and nearly 2 years since the full scale invasion.  Yet Russia STILL hasn't fully integrated DLPR into its force structure.  It seems like Russia might be getting a little frustrated by this!

Steve

[dan/california]

3 hours ago, The_Capt said:

I had noticed a weird behaviour in the RA tanks pretty much since the beginning: open hatches.  We have seen stream after stream of UA drones dropping munitions into open hatches.  Hell we saw one where the damned UAS itself flew right down into one.  Given the prevalence of artillery and normal small arms threats I could not figure out why the RA tankers were driving around with hatches open.  A few poorly trained would make sense but we have seen this repeatedly.  Why keep the things open when UAS threat is so obvious?

Confluence of reasons I suspect.  First situational awareness, Russian tanks are famous for crappy vision and optics.  Second and more important is that the lethality of ATGMs, UAS, mines and artillery is so high that most tankers are going into battle ready to jump out at a moments notice.  They are heading into battle knowing the damned things are magnets and are leaving hatches open so they have a chance of getting out even if it means a direct UAS drop.  Third RA tanks are infamous cook-off machines.  We have seen enough turret throwing to know that survivability in those tanks is very poor and risk of secondary fires is high.

As we watch video after video of mechanized forces getting cut to pieces all under the watchful eyes of UAS ISR it kinda makes sense as a battlefield adaptation.  Tankers want to basically have one foot outside the tank at all times to have a chance of getting out.  This also matches RA infantry dismounting IFVs well back from an objective and walking in.  Much safer than getting lit up trapped inside the vehicle.

It almost like we are seeing what the machine gun and fast artillery did to infantry formations in WW1.  We are seeing a similar effect on mechanized formation in this war.  Write your letter home and leave it back with HQ, say goodbye to each other and go over the top at the sound of the whistle.

Among other things the casualties in these assaults appear to be so high they aren't even getting enough people back to learn much. Though of course their demise is on tape from at least three angles. I wonder if some of them aren't trying to hit mines intentionally since that maybe gives you a higher chance to have time to exit the vehicle. Depends on the vehicle obviously.

[Zeleban]

13 hours ago, dan/california said:

 

Video of Ukrainian FPV drones knocking out Russian artillery wholesale. Either the range of the FPV drones has gone up, or the continued deterioration in barrels and and ammo quality is forcing the Russians to get closer to the front lines. As Steve says we are rapidly approaching a battlefield where there are drones, and targets.

Post translation:

 

The Ukrainian Armed Forces use tactics with master UAVs for FPV. FPV with a heavier charge refers to the mother drone at maximum distance and height. After which the FPV “disappears” and flies towards the target. The mother drone also acts as a repeater. This way the drone saves battery and flies over a longer distance + the weight of the warhead increases.

 

[Carolus]

20 minutes ago, Zeleban said:

Post translation:

The Ukrainian Armed Forces use tactics with master UAVs for FPV. FPV with a heavier charge refers to the mother drone at maximum distance and height. After which the FPV “disappears” and flies towards the target. The mother drone also acts as a repeater. This way the drone saves battery and flies over a longer distance + the weight of the warhead increases.

UA working hard every day to make the Cap's nightmares real.

[cesmonkey]

 

Edited November 20, 2023 by cesmonkey

[cesmonkey]

 

[LongLeftFlank]

1. Topo. There was also a clip of the infamous slag heap but I can't find it now.

Source: https://nitter.net/Pouletvolant3

****

2.  Yup, as we suspected, the Ukes are hitting Ivan where it hurts, drawing out his last(?) mobile forces to the very end of their tether then hitting them at full stretch.

Would love to see more of this, induced via special Psyops units in places where the front is more porous and less heavily mined.

3. 

4.  Look at the intensity of the mortar fire (?) around the evac zone! 82mm Vasilek or CBUs?

 

[cesmonkey]

 

[LongLeftFlank]

3 hours ago, Battlefront.com said:

This from ISW's November 19th report.  It is relevant to the recent conversation about Russia's problems with DLPR combat forces integration:

Russia is 9 years into this conflict, having created and managed DLPR forces since the very beginning, and nearly 2 years since the full scale invasion.  Yet Russia STILL hasn't fully integrated DLPR into its force structure.  It seems like Russia might be getting a little frustrated by this!

Steve

As I understand it, this separation was by design, to give Putin (indirectly) true dictatorial powers over the separ forces and citizenry that he could not (at least not until lately) wield over Russian citizens. That's also part of why these 'republics' weren't previously declared part of Russia.

Massive casualties in the separ units have required them to drop most of that since late 2022. Russian mobiks too are finding that many of the procedural barriers some refuseniks were able to use earlier in the 'SMO' to prevent them from being sent to Ukraine are no longer observed.

There was actually a small amount of 'rule of law' in prewar Russia. Not 'justice' as we understand it, more an ability of savvy people to work loopholes in the system. No more; it is now 'rule by law' (law being whatever the Authorities say it is on any given day).  That's another permanent casualty of this conflict.

[Zeleban]

2 hours ago, LongLeftFlank said:

1. Topo. There was also a clip of the infamous slag heap but I can't find it now.

Source: https://nitter.net/Pouletvolant3

****

2.  Yup, as we suspected, the Ukes are hitting Ivan where it hurts, drawing out his last(?) mobile forces to the very end of their tether then hitting them at full stretch.

Would love to see more of this, induced via special Psyops units in places where the front is more porous and less heavily mined.

3. 

4.  Look at the intensity of the mortar fire (?) around the evac zone! 82mm Vasilek or CBUs?

 

It's actually Bradley's shooting.

[LongLeftFlank]

31 minutes ago, Zeleban said:

It's actually Bradley's shooting.

Sure, but not all of it.

Armchair quarterback notes that fire discipline isn't great in general for the UA since the start of the war. Western ammo stocks aren't infinite. Another good reason to have that heads up drone-fed display we were discussing above... if you gonna spray and pray at least make it directionally accurate.

...Also that patch of woodlands is gonna be measurably radioactive for quite some decades. On top of the UXO and other contaminants.

Edited November 20, 2023 by LongLeftFlank

[The_Capt]

50 minutes ago, LongLeftFlank said:

Sure, but not all of it.

Armchair quarterback notes that fire discipline isn't great in general for the UA since the start of the war. Western ammo stocks aren't infinite. Another good reason to have that heads up drone-fed display we were discussing above... if you gonna spray and pray at least make it directionally accurate.

...Also that patch of woodlands is gonna be measurably radioactive for quite some decades. On top of the UXO and other contaminants.

Not quite sure what the issue is here.  I saw a Bradly suppressing a wood line while debussing.  A few of those black puffs were likely RA mortars firing in defence.  Nothing abnormal about it.  Maybe CM gives a skewed experience but area fire is probably the primary form of direct fires since WW1.

The armchair QBs should be asking where the rest of the platoon is.  And more over, why is a lone Bradley doing an assault?  Answer is likely what we have been talking about for about 1000 pages - dig, disperse or die.

[Rokko]

9 hours ago, The_Capt said:

I had noticed a weird behaviour in the RA tanks pretty much since the beginning: open hatches.  We have seen stream after stream of UA drones dropping munitions into open hatches.  Hell we saw one where the damned UAS itself flew right down into one.  Given the prevalence of artillery and normal small arms threats I could not figure out why the RA tankers were driving around with hatches open.  A few poorly trained would make sense but we have seen this repeatedly.  Why keep the things open when UAS threat is so obvious?

Confluence of reasons I suspect.  First situational awareness, Russian tanks are famous for crappy vision and optics.  Second and more important is that the lethality of ATGMs, UAS, mines and artillery is so high that most tankers are going into battle ready to jump out at a moments notice.  They are heading into battle knowing the damned things are magnets and are leaving hatches open so they have a chance of getting out even if it means a direct UAS drop.  Third RA tanks are infamous cook-off machines.  We have seen enough turret throwing to know that survivability in those tanks is very poor and risk of secondary fires is high.

As we watch video after video of mechanized forces getting cut to pieces all under the watchful eyes of UAS ISR it kinda makes sense as a battlefield adaptation.  Tankers want to basically have one foot outside the tank at all times to have a chance of getting out.  This also matches RA infantry dismounting IFVs well back from an objective and walking in.  Much safer than getting lit up trapped inside the vehicle.

It almost like we are seeing what the machine gun and fast artillery did to infantry formations in WW1.  We are seeing a similar effect on mechanized formation in this war.  Write your letter home and leave it back with HQ, say goodbye to each other and go over the top at the sound of the whistle.

I am pretty sure most if not all of these instances involve abandoned (damaged) tanks.

Some of these implications still apply, though. Russian tank crews are quite probably more skittish on average due to the well known propensity of their tanks to incinerate their occupants alive and are therefore more likely to abandon their tanks even in case of non-critical damage or hits.

Another big implication: Used to be that you had to expand another (or even more) expensive ATGM or tank round to deliver a kill shot, or else your enemy would come in at night and tow the tank back for repairs. Now, all you need is a cheap drone and a hand grenade to reliably and consistently cause write-offs of multi-million dollar war machines.