How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?

[Beleg85]

Pretty short summary of Ukrainian needs regarding equipment. Nothin new, but perhaps worth to look at.

 

[LongLeftFlank]

1 hour ago, The_Capt said:

So what they should do is stick all you guys on a Humint and PsyOps courses.  Ok, so you attend 10 parties and hear the same BS line.  How similar are those lines?  Do they sound scripted?  Are some genuine?  Now what aren’t they saying?  You are going to see a pecking order pretty quick so who is driving the party line?  This gives you a baseline.  Now as you attend more parties what is that baseline doing?  Is is moving?  Is it static?  Who is talking to you?  Who is talking to someone else and are they telling the same story?  Now does the story change based on audience, teller?  Once you really get good at it you will spot anomalies - no party line is going to be totally airtight (and if it is, then that is something).  Human beings hemorrhage information, it is baked into the species.  The trick is to see the patterns.

Then there are the blanks - why is no one talking about X?  Wait a minutes - didn’t the last 5 guys say X and not Y.  If your eyes are glazing over, you are doing it wrong.  Common phrases, buzzwords.  I once jacked up a ChatGPT return because of a buzz phrase catch.  Gaps in stories that someone else might fill.  

And then the wind shifts.  You can get a sense of where the herd is going.  What is spooking them.  We collectively seek certainty like moths to flames.  What is their certainty?  What is their uncertainty?  A good experienced listener can unpeel a social group in minutes.  This is how Humint works - rumour, gossip, BS.  I bet you can pick a MAGA guy out in seconds right now.  Like that but broader.

Wow, the semiotics of HUMINT. Paging the ghost of Umberto Eco.

"A lunatic is easily recognized. He is a moron who doesn't know the ropes. The moron proves his thesis; he has a logic, however twisted it may be. The lunatic, on the other hand, doesn't concern himself at all with logic; he works by short circuits. For him, everything proves everything else. The lunatic is all idée fixe, and whatever he comes across confirms his lunacy. You can tell him by the liberties he takes with common sense, by his flashes of inspiration, and by the fact that sooner or later he brings up the Templars." 

[sburke]

3 hours ago, The_Capt said:

You want more than wiki?  Break out your cheque book, I have a decent hourly rate...and you get "friends and family" prices.

And so after much debate, Pooh, Piglet, Owl and Eeyore ventured off to Mongolia, then north to Siberia to see what they could see.

Hours later Piglet came racing back with the others in pursuit.
Pooh:"Piglet what's wrong?!"
Piglet:"are you out of your F'n mind?  Are you blind?  That place has more wildfires than the rest of the globe combined!  They have f'n exploding methane holes and now they have these creepy viruses from 50,000 years ago! Who the hell wants that place?!"
https://abcnews.go.com/International/siberian-wildfires-now-bigger-fires-world-combined/story?id=79422602

https://www.bbc.com/future/article/20201130-climate-change-the-mystery-of-siberias-explosive-craters

https://www.cnn.com/2023/03/08/world/permafrost-virus-risk-climate-scn/index.html

[danfrodo]

17 minutes ago, sburke said:

And so after much debate, Pooh, Piglet, Owl and Eeyore ventured off to Mongolia, then north to Siberia to see what they could see.

Hours later Piglet came racing back with the others in pursuit.
Pooh:"Piglet what's wrong?!"
Piglet:"are you out of your F'n mind?  Are you blind?  That place has more wildfires than the rest of the globe combined!  They have f'n exploding methane holes and now they have these creepy viruses from 50,000 years ago! Who the hell wants that place?!"
https://abcnews.go.com/International/siberian-wildfires-now-bigger-fires-world-combined/story?id=79422602

https://www.bbc.com/future/article/20201130-climate-change-the-mystery-of-siberias-explosive-craters

https://www.cnn.com/2023/03/08/world/permafrost-virus-risk-climate-scn/index.html

Christopher Robin then says "Silly old bear!  they've got fossil fuels.  Who cares about anything else?"  And lots of blustery days for the 100 acre wood gang to enjoy up there.

[cyrano01]

1 hour ago, Battlefront.com said:

And THANK YOU for reminding me that this has to go back to the top of my list of movies to watch.  For some reason last weekend Ferris Bueller's Day Off rose to the top.  Haven't seen that in 20+ years and it still entertained, but I want to see Jason Isaacs' interpretation of Zhukov again much sooner rather than later.

Steve

When I first heard it Zhukov with a West Yorkshire accent amused me greatly, sounded alarmingly like a Chief Technology Officer I used to work for.

[billbindc]

2 hours ago, The_Capt said:

So what they should do is stick all you guys on a Humint and PsyOps courses.  Ok, so you attend 10 parties and hear the same BS line.  How similar are those lines?  Do they sound scripted?  Are some genuine?  Now what aren’t they saying?  You are going to see a pecking order pretty quick so who is driving the party line?  This gives you a baseline.  Now as you attend more parties what is that baseline doing?  Is is moving?  Is it static?  Who is talking to you?  Who is talking to someone else and are they telling the same story?  Now does the story change based on audience, teller?  Once you really get good at it you will spot anomalies - no party line is going to be totally airtight (and if it is, then that is something).  Human beings hemorrhage information, it is baked into the species.  The trick is to see the patterns.

Then there are the blanks - why is no one talking about X?  Wait a minutes - didn’t the last 5 guys say X and not Y.  If your eyes are glazing over, you are doing it wrong.  Common phrases, buzzwords.  I once jacked up a ChatGPT return because of a buzz phrase catch.  Gaps in stories that someone else might fill.  

And then the wind shifts.  You can get a sense of where the herd is going.  What is spooking them.  We collectively seek certainty like moths to flames.  What is their certainty?  What is their uncertainty?  A good experienced listener can unpeel a social group in minutes.  This is how Humint works - rumour, gossip, BS.  I bet you can pick a MAGA guy out in seconds right now.  Like that but broader.

Now you're talking. But that's a different exercise entirely.

[The_Capt]

1 hour ago, billbindc said:

Now you're talking. But that's a different exercise entirely.

Oh ya.  And we haven’t even dipped into the non-verbal queues.  And that is still the shallow end as some lunatics talk about pheromones/biometrics, Mag Res/TMS, and AI pattern recognition and algorithm support.

 

 

[dan/california]

2 minutes ago, The_Capt said:

AI pattern recognition and algorithm support.

This really kicks in if you are trying to get a sense of an entire country's public social media traffic, there just isn't any other way to do that. No real way to double check it either, except with a different AI.

[Kraft]

Russian special forces killed two locals who were unlucky to come across them in a forest near Sumy. And atleast five soldiers were ambushed there in recent days as well.

Edited November 14, 2023 by Kraft

[kimbosbread]

I’m with LLF on China, though my sources are extremely competent and nationalistic Chinese software engineers working in the US, with whom I often had lunch or dinner and argued about international politics. Interestingly enough they all held three opinions:

• Xi is a bad leader and the West is lucky they got him, instead of another Deng or Hu or Zemin
• The Belt and Road initiative is a giant waste of time and waste of money and attention that is net loss for China both economically and diplomatically
• The vaunted Chinese HSR infra is great in a few places, but its half of it is an economic boondoggle that will never have the usage needed to justify building and maintaining it.

That said, obviously there is some pretty serious butthurt about Xi stifling the Chinese software industry, as it is a threat to his power.

[billbindc]

And today Indonesia and the United States formalized a new strategic partnership. Xi continues to crush it:  https://www.whitehouse.gov/briefing-room/statements-releases/2023/11/13/fact-sheet-president-joseph-r-biden-and-president-joko-widodo-announce-the-u-s-indonesia-comprehensive-strategic-partnership/

[Battlefront.com]

OK, a reminder to folks that China is a massive topic of interest, yet not for here.  It is OK to bring it in occasionally as applicable, but to carry on for a couple of pages about Chinese specific issues isn't doing that.  So let's put the Chinese stuff back in the box and come back to it some other time when it's directly relevant.

Steve

[Battlefront.com]

2 hours ago, Kraft said:

Russian special forces killed two locals who were unlucky to come across them in a forest near Sumy. And atleast five soldiers were ambushed there in recent days as well.

Long range Russian assassin group with murder in mind, or are they just killing people getting in their way of doing something else?

Steve

[Battlefront.com]

Burnt up Russian position said to be recent and near Nova Kakhovka. 

Can someone confirm what language is being spoken?  I know there's only a couple of works captured on the video, but it sounds Asiatic to me and not Russian.  Buyrat?

Steve

[Battlefront.com]

More footage from the 47th Mech from the October Avdiivka battles.  It starts with yet another view of the Oct 10th attack and then moves to some other scenes.  New combat footage shown as well.  Towards the end the drone goes down low and you can really get an idea of the topography of area surrounding Avdiivka:

Steve

[sburke]

1 hour ago, Battlefront.com said:

OK, a reminder to folks that China is a massive topic of interest, yet not for here.  It is OK to bring it in occasionally as applicable, but to carry on for a couple of pages about Chinese specific issues isn't doing that.  So let's put the Chinese stuff back in the box and come back to it some other time when it's directly relevant.

Steve

Well just don't do a CM game involving China or it may become way too relevant.  

[Offshoot]

1 hour ago, Battlefront.com said:

Towards the end the drone goes down low and you can really get an idea of the topography of area surrounding Avdiivka

This video from the 53rd shows some ground level views of the area to the south of Avdiivka as they do a tour of taken Russian positions. From about 21 min they show views across wide open fields to the coke plant and slag heap (Terrikon). Unfortunately the closed captions are not good.

 

 

[Battlefront.com]

25 minutes ago, Offshoot said:

This video from the 53rd shows some ground level views of the area to the south of Avdiivka as they do a tour of taken Russian positions. From about 21 min they show views across wide open fields to the coke plant and slag heap (Terrikon). Unfortunately the closed captions are not good.

 

 

I wish they would put in English translations in their videos.  Sounds like there were some very good interviews there, but the auto translate isn't very good.

One interesting thing I noted was the BTR at around the 6 minute mark.  It went into battle with parade paintjob and emblem.

Steve

[Zeleban]

3 hours ago, Battlefront.com said:

Burnt up Russian position said to be recent and near Nova Kakhovka. 

Can someone confirm what language is being spoken?  I know there's only a couple of works captured on the video, but it sounds Asiatic to me and not Russian.  Buyrat?

Steve

No, they speak Russian. True, with a strongly pronounced “arrogantly-lazy” Moscow pronunciation

[cesmonkey]

 

[Grossman]

• Germany’s aid for Ukraine will be “massively expanded” next year, the foreign minister, Annalena Baerbock, has said. She said: “We will not only continue our support for Ukraine, we will continue to expand and increase it, especially on the part of the Federal Republic of Germany, not only with a view to the winter defence for the coming weeks and months, when it is clear that the Russian president will once again exploit the needs of the people in the cold winter. “Our support will also be massively expanded, especially for the coming year.”  Source  UK Guardian

[Kinophile]

10 hours ago, Battlefront.com said:

OK, a reminder to folks that China is a massive topic of interest, yet not for here.  It is OK to bring it in occasionally as applicable, but to carry on for a couple of pages about Chinese specific issues isn't doing that.  So let's put the Chinese stuff back in the box and come back to it some other time when it's directly relevant.

Steve

CM:TS is a long ways away

[Carolus]

6 hours ago, Grossman said:

• Germany’s aid for Ukraine will be “massively expanded” next year, the foreign minister, Annalena Baerbock, has said. She said: “We will not only continue our support for Ukraine, we will continue to expand and increase it, especially on the part of the Federal Republic of Germany, not only with a view to the winter defence for the coming weeks and months, when it is clear that the Russian president will once again exploit the needs of the people in the cold winter. “Our support will also be massively expanded, especially for the coming year.”  Source  UK Guardian

Not a done deal, has to get through parliament first.

Wanted to mention that because I have seen this news several times now, but parliament is a hurdle many well-intentioned Ukraine-related proposals did not manage to jump through. German parliament contains a small but adamant libertarian faction aka "no spending - no taxes - yes I need 23 secretaries who are all the sons and daughters of my best friends from school and the taxpayer needs to finance them" (in addition to the other "Putin is our misunderstood friend" faction).

Edited November 14, 2023 by Carolus

[Kinophile]

https://www.pravda.com.ua/eng/news/2023/11/13/7428574/

[Butschi]

39 minutes ago, Carolus said:

Not a done deal, has to get through parliament first.

Wanted to mention that because I have seen this news several times now, but parliament is a hurdle many well-intentioned Ukraine-related proposals did not manage to jump through. German parliament contains a small but adamant libertarian faction aka "no spending - no taxes - yes I need 23 secretaries who are all the sons and daughters of my best friends from school and the taxpayer needs to finance them" (in addition to the other "Putin is our misunderstood friend" faction).

Parliament isn't really the issue, though. Unlike e.g. the US where parliamentarians vote way more independently, in Germany politicians vote almost always along the party line. The question is which party line are we talking about? Did Baerbock make this statement as a representative of the government or as high ranking member of the green party? If it is the former, there is a chance that especially the FDP will still remember it later and vote accordingly. Otherwise... nice try.

Then again "massive" is ill defined and the kind of support wasn't mentioned, either. So possibly just an increase in the amount of money we loan to the Ukrainian government.