How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?

[Battlefront.com]

43 minutes ago, danfrodo said:

Not sure I understand this.  If Vlad wins, what hinterlands are available?  If Vlad loses, there could be RU breakup and lots of hinterlands available.  

The cannon fodder is disproportionally coming from the Asiatic parts of Russia.  So if there's no people there, and things go south in Moscow, guess who would likely benefit?  China.  Either through new dependent semi-autonomous states or through direct acquisition.

Steve

[Battlefront.com]

36 minutes ago, Vanir Ausf B said:

A good shot of the new Lancet EPF drone. Looks like it detonates about 3 or 4 meters from the target.

https://twitter.com/cvetko35/status/1722589902347383131

 

Your link is to another video.

Steve

[Haiduk]

23 minutes ago, Battlefront.com said:

Your link is to another video.

Steve

0:05 second of video

[Vanir Ausf B]

23 minutes ago, Battlefront.com said:

Your link is to another video.

Steve

? It goes to the correct one when I click on it.

EDIT: ninja'd

 

Edited November 12, 2023 by Vanir Ausf B

[Battlefront.com]

26 minutes ago, Vanir Ausf B said:

? It goes to the correct one when I click on it.

EDIT: ninja'd

 

Weird!  It worked for me too!  Must be the stupid cache problem with the Forum software.  Though it was a link and not an embed.  Huh.

Anyhoo, yes this pretty much for sure shows the new EPF capability.  Interesting for sure!

Steve

[The_Capt]

1 hour ago, danfrodo said:

Not sure I understand this.  If Vlad wins, what hinterlands are available?  If Vlad loses, there could be RU breakup and lots of hinterlands available.  

Ya not sure.  LLF is in Manila so it is already late (early) there...I think he might be drinking.  Not sure how Mongolia got wrapped up in all this.  Gotta say though, Denis Villeneuve made really cool use out of them in Dune:

 

 

[dan/california]

33 minutes ago, The_Capt said:

Ya not sure.  LLF is in Manila so it is already late (early) there...I think he might be drinking.  Not sure how Mongolia got wrapped up in all this.  Gotta say though, Denis Villeneuve made really cool use out of them in Dune:

 

 

He wasn't terribly clear, but wasn't wrong either.

Quote

 

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ethnic_Chinese_in_Russia#:~:text=Russian newspapers began to publish,would be Chinese by 2050.

Additionally, the expanding Chinese presence in the area began to lead to yellow peril-style fears of Chinese irredentism by the Russians.^[9] Russian newspapers began to publish speculation that between two and five million Chinese migrants actually resided in the Russian Far East, and predicted that half of the population of Russia would be Chinese by 2050.^[32][40] Russians typically believe that Chinese come to Russia with the aim of permanent settlement, and even president Vladimir Putin was quoted as saying "If we do not take practical steps to advance the Far East soon, after a few decades, the Russian population will be speaking Chinese, Japanese, and Korean."^[41]

 

^{Northern China is VERY crowded, The Russian Far East is extraordinarily empty. A lot of Chinese are moving across that border, the amount encouragement they get  from the Chinese government is unclear, but probably not zero. If Russia destroys the viability of its indigenous population in this area by sending a critical mass of its population to die in Ukraine this can only speed up the process. The CCCP would love to have a large Chinese minority in this are for future contingencies a majority would be even better.}

^{EDIT: https://slate.com/news-and-politics/2009/12/why-are-siberian-russians-drawn-to-china.html}

^{Specifically a lot of Russian women are marrying relatively well off Chinese}

 

Edited November 12, 2023 by dan/california

[The_Capt]

1 minute ago, dan/california said:

He wasn't terribly clear, but wasn't wrong either.

^{Northern China is VERY crowded, The Russian Far East is extraordinarily empty. A lot of Chinese are moving across that border, the amount encouragement they get  from the Chinese government is unclear, but probably not zero. If Russia destroys the viability of its indigenous population in this are by sending a critical mass of its population to die in Ukraine this can only speed up the process. The CCCP would love to have a large Chinese minority in this are for future contingencies a majority would be even better.}

At the rate the war is going I suspect Putin may have to sell off slices on the cheap.

[dan/california]

1 minute ago, The_Capt said:

At the rate the war is going I suspect Putin may have to sell off slices on the cheap.

I can't find the NYT article from a few years ago that I really want, but what came up gives the gist of it.

[sburke]

38 minutes ago, The_Capt said:

At the rate the war is going I suspect Putin may have to sell off slices on the cheap.

There was a US Defense dept report almost a decade ago talking about the risk in Siberia for Russia.  Looks like Vlad is accelerating their projections.  I once sent it to Steve, I'll see if I can find it again.  It went into the difficulties of exploiting Siberian wealth and the potential of warming making it actually harder as well.

 

Not the paper, but this is from the Brookings Institute in 2003 that makes similar arguments.

The Siberian Curse: Does Russia's Geography Doom its Chances for Market Reform? | Brookings

Edited November 12, 2023 by sburke

[Battlefront.com]

7 minutes ago, sburke said:

There was a US Defense dept report almost a decade ago talking about the risk in Siberia for Russia.  Looks like Vlad is accelerating their projections.  I once sent it to Steve, I'll see if I can find it again.  It went into the difficulties of exploiting Siberian wealth and the potential of warming making it actually harder as well.

Hah!  I knew this all sounded familiar!  How you remembered sending me something in 2015 will forever astonish me

Obviously this topic was discussed after Russia moved into Ukraine the first time.  Here is a new link as the one you sent me is dead:

https://www.esd.whs.mil/Portals/54/Documents/FOID/Reading Room/International_Security_Affairs/09-F-0759_The_Great_Siberian_War_Of_2030.pdf

Steve

[kimbosbread]

One interesting thing you could do with anti drone nets in the near term is make what I can only describe as “Diamond Age, but Wish.com” (or something similar described in Seveneves):

A swarm of very small drones flying orbit around you at various distances, trailing an aramid fiber with some loops in it. These drones would be battery powered with a 10 min endurance, and then would land to swap batteries (or recharge) while others take their place. You might be able to get enough density to have a chance of catching slower drones, or if it’s a shaped charge directing it in a less damaging direction. This wouldn’t work in the rain or wind though.

[Battlefront.com]

1 hour ago, The_Capt said:

Not sure how Mongolia got wrapped up in all this. 

His point was that several hundred years of Russian "management" took the fight out of the original descendants of the Mongols, which were the long time foe of the Chinese.

To summarize... Russia is depopulating an already depopulated area which, no doubt, is making Moscow rule even less popular than it was before this war started (and it wasn't popular at all).  There's no amount of coaxing Putin can do to get ethnic Russians to move east in numbers sufficient to solve the problem. 

I read some stuff about this from the perspective of the people living there.  For sure there are some moving out there to get away from the high cost of living in the west, but these are the exceptions rather than the rule.  And I'm guessing most will bail after a year or two, just like the "Back to the Land Movement" people bailed from Maine, NH, and Vermont after they realized how f'n hard it is to live a self-sustaining life.

One article I read focused on the Jewish Autonomous Oblast's steady decline to the point where there is concern there's not enough people there to keep the infrastructure going.

Steve

[danfrodo]

2 hours ago, Battlefront.com said:

The cannon fodder is disproportionally coming from the Asiatic parts of Russia.  So if there's no people there, and things go south in Moscow, guess who would likely benefit?  China.  Either through new dependent semi-autonomous states or through direct acquisition.

Steve

I think that's my point.  China should be wanting Putin to fail, badly, very badly, though maybe they are best pretending in public this is not the case.  But the esteemed LLF was saying China wanted Putin to win and have more land, which I didn't understand.  

[danfrodo]

River crossing hopium here today.  I have become rather skeptical of any UKR offensive turning into any kind of operational gain, but I still have some hope.  Is RU getting weaker?  Seems so, especially as they are burning up forces for nothing.  But this could also mean they have much more men and material than we think they do.  I am hoping that the current RU offensives are just political stupidity and really are weakening an already crumbling military machine.  I suppose Putler believes that with winter coming he'll not be under any real threat of UKR breakout, so why not try to grab some land in anticipation of freezing the conflict.

https://www.dailykos.com/stories/2023/11/12/2205064/-Ukraine-Update-How-Ukraine-is-overcoming-the-disadvantages-of-an-amphibious-landing?pm_campaign=front_page&pm_source=top_news_slot_6&pm_medium=web

[Battlefront.com]

18 minutes ago, danfrodo said:

I think that's my point.  China should be wanting Putin to fail, badly, very badly, though maybe they are best pretending in public this is not the case.  But the esteemed LLF was saying China wanted Putin to win and have more land, which I didn't understand.  

You misunderstood our dear LLF.  Which is to say China is not cheering Russia to win the war (this might not be in China's best interests), but is probably quite thrilled to have Russian depopulate the Asiatic provinces by having the most capable of fighting killed in Ukraine.  Not only does this give China more room to grow, but it also means there's fewer people inclined to resist because they are already dead.

Steve

[Battlefront.com]

12 minutes ago, danfrodo said:

River crossing hopium here today.  I have become rather skeptical of any UKR offensive turning into any kind of operational gain, but I still have some hope.  Is RU getting weaker?  Seems so, especially as they are burning up forces for nothing.  But this could also mean they have much more men and material than we think they do.  I am hoping that the current RU offensives are just political stupidity and really are weakening an already crumbling military machine.  I suppose Putler believes that with winter coming he'll not be under any real threat of UKR breakout, so why not try to grab some land in anticipation of freezing the conflict.

https://www.dailykos.com/stories/2023/11/12/2205064/-Ukraine-Update-How-Ukraine-is-overcoming-the-disadvantages-of-an-amphibious-landing?pm_campaign=front_page&pm_source=top_news_slot_6&pm_medium=web

Regardless, if this war freezes with Ukraine holding a significant footing on the left bank of the Dnepr it will be a big problem for Russia long term.  During the cease fire period Ukraine would then be free to build up supplies, bridges, and other things it would need to launch an offensive sometime down the road.  This in turn means Russia will have to expend resources and manpower to stop such an offensive from working.

Having Ukraine only on the right bank would be much better for Russia, that's for sure.  I suppose the fact that Russia isn't fighting tooth and nail to eliminate the bridgeheads, but is fighting hard for Avdiivka, might indicate Putin doesn't intend on trying to freeze the conflict any time soon.  If he does, you can be sure that he'll draw a line down the middle of the Dnepr and obligate Ukraine to withdraw before agreeing to a freeze.

Steve

[danfrodo]

10 minutes ago, Battlefront.com said:

You misunderstood our dear LLF.  Which is to say China is not cheering Russia to win the war (this might not be in China's best interests), but is probably quite thrilled to have Russian depopulate the Asiatic provinces by having the most capable of fighting killed in Ukraine.  Not only does this give China more room to grow, but it also means there's fewer people inclined to resist because they are already dead.

Ah, I see.  I think this is unrealistic because it would take huge casualties to 'depopulate' the region.  But I can see where China is happy to see Putin push these regions to revolt over the ongoing kidnapping & murder of these people ( by kidnapping & murder I mean, of course, RU conscription).  

8 minutes ago, Battlefront.com said:

Regardless, if this war freezes with Ukraine holding a significant footing on the left bank of the Dnepr it will be a big problem for Russia long term.

Great point.  I actually feel a little happier thinking of it that way.  

[chuckdyke]

Just what they need Climate Change Zealots in the Ukraine.

 

[sburke]

15 minutes ago, danfrodo said:

Ah, I see.  I think this is unrealistic because it would take huge casualties to 'depopulate' the region.  But I can see where China is happy to see Putin push these regions to revolt over the ongoing kidnapping & murder of these people ( by kidnapping & murder I mean, of course, RU conscription).  

Great point.  I actually feel a little happier thinking of it that way.  

It is actually a double cut.  Putin is taking the young male population leaving the female population with few options beyond marrying the likely wealthier Chinese population.  Xi probably couldn't be happier.

[Battlefront.com]

4 minutes ago, danfrodo said:

Ah, I see.  I think this is unrealistic because it would take huge casualties to 'depopulate' the region.  But I can see where China is happy to see Putin push these regions to revolt over the ongoing kidnapping & murder of these people ( by kidnapping & murder I mean, of course, RU conscription).  

For sure nobody is seriously considering that Putin will kill off more than a fraction of the population.  However, he's killing off an important demographic slice of it.  There's no great data to know where Russia's casualties are really coming from, but Buryatia has just shy of 1m people.  If they lose a couple tens of thousands killed in the 18-50 year old male demographic, that's statistically significant.

My state has a population of just over 1m.  If we lost 10,000 males in the working age demographic it would be noticed quite readily.  It also would ensure that pretty much everybody knew at least one person, even if tacitly, who died.

Steve

[sburke]

1 hour ago, Battlefront.com said:

Hah!  I knew this all sounded familiar!  How you remembered sending me something in 2015 will forever astonish me

Obviously this topic was discussed after Russia moved into Ukraine the first time.  Here is a new link as the one you sent me is dead:

https://www.esd.whs.mil/Portals/54/Documents/FOID/Reading Room/International_Security_Affairs/09-F-0759_The_Great_Siberian_War_Of_2030.pdf

Steve

I'm not quite dead yet... I feeeel happy!!

[Battlefront.com]

3 minutes ago, sburke said:

It is actually a double cut.  Putin is taking the young male population leaving the female population with few options beyond marrying the likely wealthier Chinese population.  Xi probably couldn't be happier.

It's a triple cut!  Many of the dead who reside in the Asiatic provinces are ethnic Russians likely descended from various Tzarist and Soviet relocation programs.  I'm sure the Chinese are not unhappy that their bordering regions are looking a lot more like them.

Steve

[danfrodo]

33 minutes ago, chuckdyke said:

Just what they need Climate Change Zealots in the Ukraine.

Maybe these young people are climate change zealots because they have to live with the catastrophe that our generation chose to mock & ignore.  Did you see the temperature data from this summer?  This september?  -- Off the f--ing charts.  Things are getting bad much, much faster than projected a decade ago.  

[Offshoot]

45 minutes ago, chuckdyke said:

Just what they need Climate Change Zealots in the Ukraine.

 

This was in Amsterdam and referencing Israel and Gaza. What has it got to do with Ukraine? Given your wording, it sounds like you are just trying to shoehorn a personal bugbear.