How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?

[Haiduk]

Video of "Askold" is being hit with three missiles

 

 

[Billy Ringo]

3,000 thanks to everyone for all the great discussion, debate and invaluable experience and knowledge shared over the past 18 months.  God bless the Ukrainians.

[Haiduk]

2 hours ago, acrashb said:

Ukraine is taking a long and wide view of the war.  Long as in war criminals will be hunted until they are gone.  Wide as in not just on the Russo-Ukraine front:

Somehow this type of action will interact with any formal pause in hostilities - can they keep killing their enemies globally if Ukraine and Russia cease fighting on the front lines?  

And how on earth did they insert forces into Sudan?  Which leads to understanding of how they will do it in future.

Edit: squeaked in on 3000

Number of Wagner troops around the world. Our SOF will have a lot of work even after the war

[Haiduk]

Russian FAB-250 with UMPK gliding kit fell down and didn't explode. For yesterday Russians set new record 87 gliding bombs were launched on Kherson oblast. Alas, we havn't "antodot" for this weapon and command likely didn't wan't to risk, moving here Patriot battery. 

By the rumors there were two attempts to reinforce AD with some coplexes, presumably S-300, but they probably were hit

I can't understand, why we have so small number of JDAMs and why we to this time didn't produce these gliding kits for our dumb bombs. As far as long before the war some our developers offered similar system, but it didn't interest MoD.

Edited November 6, 2023 by Haiduk

[Ultradave]

30 minutes ago, Haiduk said:

Video of "Askold" is being hit with three missiles

 

 

Lots of pieces and bits flying off that! Looks like (but hard to tell) the missiles all hit the top surface of the superstructure. 

Dave

[JonS]

Who ever took that video knew exactly when and where "something" was about to happen. Not a coincidence.

[Haiduk]

20 minutes ago, Ultradave said:

Lots of pieces and bits flying off that! Looks like (but hard to tell) the missiles all hit the top surface of the superstructure. 

Dave

One Russian TG claims bow part was hit and missile launcher inside superstructure taken out

On 27th of November a ceremony of comissioning of this ship was planned. "Askold" had to be part of 41st missile ships and boats brigade and join her sistership "Cyclone", which already in service. Two more 22800 corvettes still under building in Kerch and two other in Feodosia

Edited November 6, 2023 by Haiduk

[Haiduk]

Russian milblogger Romanov92 issued a screen how UKR PTS-2 amphibious carrier delivers some armor on UKR-held bridgehead on left bank of Dnipro

[Harmon Rabb]

55 minutes ago, Haiduk said:

Video of "Askold" is being hit with three missiles

 

 

Tis But A Scratch.

[LongLeftFlank]

...It'll buff right out

[Battlefront.com]

2 hours ago, danfrodo said:

Since the wave strength will reduce as the radius^2, I wonder if just have the crew move 5-10 meters away for each shot would significantly help.  Can they fire by pulling a rope?  

impractical because of loading/unloading and adjustments.  Can't keep up a decent RoF with guys having to sprint 5-10m before and after every shot.

The real solution is an auto loader.  This not only keeps the crews from experiencing trauma from the shots fired, but also allows for them to be stationed far enough away to avoid injury from counter battery fire.

Of course there are a lot of downsides to an auto loader...

Steve

[Battlefront.com]

1 hour ago, Haiduk said:

Number of Wagner troops around the world. Our SOF will have a lot of work even after the war

I presume those numbers include non-Russians in the hire of Wagner.  SOF could ignore them

Steve

[Kraft]

Quote

Commander-in-Chief of the Armed Forces:

 Unspeakable pain and heavy loss for the Armed Forces of Ukraine and for me personally.

 Today, under tragic circumstances, is his Day

 my assistant and close friend, Major Gennadiy Chastyakov, died in the family circle. An unknown explosive device went off in one of the gifts. Gennady is survived by his wife and four children. My deepest condolences to the family...

 From the beginning of the full-scale invasion, Gennady was a reliable shoulder for me, completely devoting his life to the Armed Forces of Ukraine and the fight against Russian aggression.

 The reasons and circumstances will be established during the pre-trial investigation.

 Eternal memory!

Zaluzhnyis assistant Major was assasinated, according to his TG.

Other sources claim it was a result of inproper handling of a German DM-51 grenade. 

Edited November 6, 2023 by Kraft

[The_Capt]

1 hour ago, Haiduk said:

Number of Wagner troops around the world. Our SOF will have a lot of work even after the war

Ugh, we are going to be playing grab-a$$ with these guys for years. 

[poesel]

A bit of statistics about this thread.
First post 11.2.2022.
Page 1000 on 7.7.2022, 2000 on 3.2.2023 and 3000 on 6.11.2023.

It took 146 days for the first 1000. Then 211 for the next and another 276 for the last. So we are slowing down.

With a bit of extrapolation, it will take 318 days for the next 1000 - that would be September 19, 2024. Let's hope we are discussion the end of the war by then.

 

[Haiduk]

43 minutes ago, Kraft said:

Zaluzhnyis assistant Major was assasinated, according to his TG.

Other sources claim it was a result of inproper handling of a German DM-51 grenade. 

By the last information it was assasination, not inproper handling. Major Hennadiy Chystiakov celebrated his birthday and brough to home a gift - metal box with alcohole and glasses, made as hand grenades - such  sort of souvenirs very popular now in Ukraine and even on the West. When officer opened thу box it was exploded and killed him. His 13 y.o. son got heavy wounds. 

Zaluzhyi made a statement that this is heavy loss personally for him, because Hennadiy Chystiakov was more than adjutant, he was real assistant and support for him.

 

Assasination of Chystiakov is obvious next step of Russian game, throwing inside of UKR society a thread of "withstanding between President's Administration and Zaluzhnyi". This message, alas joyfully was picked up by Poroshenko followers. His bot-farms and social media influencers already long time "keep gradus", developing new and new conspiracies, how "Zaluzhnyi foil  plans of Yermak and Zelenskiy to give up Ukraine to Russia", so "ZeRmak" want to remove Zaluzhnyi. Already now in UKR social media started mass bot attack - one part blaims Zelenskiy in assasination, other part - Poroshenko. Divide and rule.

Recent provocative deafitist articles in western media, interview of Zaluzhnyi to "Economist" and nervous reaction on this from Yermak's deputy and oponing of Zelenskiy to some of his statements, strange retirement of SOF chief, tense situation in Avdiivka, uncertainty about US support, fakes about elections in 2024 from Poroshenko folowers - all this siginficantly shake situation inside society, which by old Ukrianian tradition now can "search the traitors".    

Edited November 6, 2023 by Haiduk

[Twisk]

7 hours ago, Sgt Joch said:

Well, 30-60-90 Abrams while nice would not be a “magic bullet”. As we know from CM and other conflicts, they can be immobilized by say mines and can be killed by ATGMs, direct tank fire to sides/rear. Even if they do manage to break through Russian lines, if they are alone because infantry is pinned by artillery fire, they will eventually have to fall back.

I wouldn't expect them to dramatically change the outcome (in a direct way) but from what I've seen Western tanks and historically tank crews have lower loss rates than infantry. We've also only ever seen Ukraine make breach attempts under the duress of limited armor replacements. So I would be interested in seeing what they would decide to do if they had a guaranteed feed of replacement armor. Even if they only made it as far as they currently did but the losses were heavy lopsided in favor of tanks over infantry that would likely be a better deal for Ukraine.

There might be benefit to Ukraine of having excess armor to throw around. Fighting for Robotyne, expanding the breach to the flanks, exploiting areas between breaches. That might lead to the breach formations having more infantry strength to then continue breaching operations and keep up pressure on the Russian line.


 

I guess the question I have is how much is the Ukrainian reliance on small groups of infantry a result of armor not working as opposed to armor not working well enough given their severely limited replacement ability. We've not seen a Ukrainian force operate armor under an environment where they are sure they can get more tanks to replace what is lost.

[Zeleban]

31 minutes ago, Kraft said:

Zaluzhnyis assistant Major was assasinated, according to his TG.

Other sources claim it was a result of inproper handling of a German DM-51 grenade. 

Yes, another fact of the unprofessionalism of our military. Someone thought of giving him live grenades for his birthday (this fact well demonstrates the attitude of our military towards the help of Western countries). Anyone who has dealt with military weapons in their professional activities knows well that weapons do not forgive a frivolous attitude towards themselves. However, even a professional military man of this level allowed himself to bring military grenades to his home to his family (but why? No sane person over 18 years old would have thought of such a thing)

[Zeleban]

6 minutes ago, Haiduk said:

By the last information it was assasination, not inroper handling. Major Hennadiy Chystiakov celebrated his birthday and brough to home a gift - metal box with alcohole and glasses, made as hand grenades - such  sort of souvenirs very popular now in Ukraine and even on the West. When the officer opened teh box it was exploded and killed him. His 13 y.o. son got heavy wounds. 

Zaluzhyi made a statement that this is heavy loss personally for him, because Hennadiy Chystiakov was more than adjutant, he was real assistant and support for him.

 

Assasination of Chystiakov is obvious next step of Russian game, throwing inside of UKR society a thread of "withstanding between President's Administration and Zaluzhnyi". This message, alas joyfully was picked up by Poroshenko followers. His bot-farms and social media influencers already long time "keep gradus", developing new and new conspiracies, how "Zaluzhnyi foil  plans of Yermak and Zelenskiy to give up Ukraine to Russia", so "ZeRmak" want to remove Zaluzhnyi. Already now in UKR social media started mass bot attack - one part blaims Zelenskiy in assasination, other part - Poroshenko. Divide and rule.

Recent provocative deafitist articles in western media, interview of Zaluzhnyi to "Economist" and nervous reaction on this from Yermak's deputy and oponing of Zelenskiy to some of his statements, strange retirement of SOF chief, tense situation in Avdiivka, uncertainty about US support, fakes about elections in 2024 from Poroshenko folowers - all this siginficantly shake situation inside society, which by old Ukrianian tradition now can "search the traitors".    

The box in the photo is absolutely intact, as are the grenades inside. It's unlikely that something exploded inside that box. 

[Zeleban]

 

Another good example of the stupid attitude of our military towards Western assistance. What could be better than shooting through an entire box of ammo for a stupid TikTok video. Mentality of a teenager 16-18 years old.

[Haiduk]

4 minutes ago, Zeleban said:

The box in the photo is absolutely intact, as are the grenades inside. It's unlikely that something exploded inside that box. 

This is version of his wife. He opened a pack with gift, not a metal box. Anyway those, who gave to him this pack should be his familiar. I doubt, adjutant of Chief-in-Command would be take gifts from unknown man. I hope, gifter will be arrested soon. 

https://www.pravda.com.ua/news/2023/11/6/7427515/

Edited November 6, 2023 by Haiduk

[chrisl]

56 minutes ago, LongLeftFlank said:

...It'll buff right out

Needs a bit of Bondo first.

[Battlefront.com]

4 minutes ago, chrisl said:

Needs a bit of Bondo first.

To paraphrase one of my favorite lines from one of my favorite movies:

"Anybody got Bondo? Somebody's gotta go back and get a s***load a' Bondo."

Steve

[akd]

1 hour ago, JonS said:

Who ever took that video knew exactly when and where "something" was about to happen. Not a coincidence.

There are CCTV cameras everywhere in Russia. Even possible this one was hacked to obtain footage rather than leaked.

[Zeleban]

 

The Minister of Internal Affairs has already commented on the death of Zaluzhny’s assistant.

He brought the grenades home and began to demonstrate them to his son. “At first, his son took the grenade and began to twist the ring. Then the military serviceman took the grenade from the child and accidentally pulled out the ring, provoking a tragic explosion”