Jr Buck Private Posted October 18, 2023 Share Posted October 18, 2023 7 hours ago, Homo_Ferricus said: Timing of this left bank raid is definitely interesting. I'm thinking the purpose may be to draw Russian reinforcements/redeployments to the Kherson region, which can be clobbered with their shiny new ATACMS cluster missiles as they redeploy along the old familiar paths (which are now in range). To me this might be a test to see how many reserves Russia still has left. I don't know how many men they need to get across before it becomes more than a nuisance but at some point it will become a major problem. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Battlefront.com Posted October 18, 2023 Share Posted October 18, 2023 3 hours ago, Carolus said: Russia transporting more iron to the war zone. Might be autumn, might also be from earlier this year. Looks like a redeployment move rather than "new" production. To put this into perspective, this is about 2/3rds of what Russia just lost in the latest push in the norther part of Avdiivka (according to Deep State). Steve 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Battlefront.com Posted October 18, 2023 Share Posted October 18, 2023 37 minutes ago, Jr Buck Private said: To me this might be a test to see how many reserves Russia still has left. I don't know how many men they need to get across before it becomes more than a nuisance but at some point it will become a major problem. Yup, it will be interesting to see what Russia has left to put in there. The last time they had to use VDV to stabilize the area, but they were pulled out to fight Ukraine's counter offensive. That likely means whatever is in positions is bottom of the barrel stuff. Referencing the Andriivka video on the previous page, it still astonishes me how many videos we see of Russians running around without a rifle. That doesn't indicate quality infantry, that's for sure. Steve 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cesmonkey Posted October 18, 2023 Share Posted October 18, 2023 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Beleg85 Posted October 18, 2023 Share Posted October 18, 2023 More about Avdiivka battle, because never enough of burned-out Russian wrekcs. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hapless Posted October 18, 2023 Share Posted October 18, 2023 8 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carolus Posted October 18, 2023 Share Posted October 18, 2023 (edited) "“We regularly consult with Ukrainians about what they need. But I’m not going to announce anything that might be included in future packages,” said Pentagon Deputy Spokesperson Sabrina Singh." Excuse my french, but thank-bleeping-finally. Edit: Now that I reread it, it occurred to me she only meant with regard to that specific question, not a new policy about packages in general. My bad. Edited October 18, 2023 by Carolus Misunderstanding 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carolus Posted October 18, 2023 Share Posted October 18, 2023 (edited) Quote Denis Kapustin / Denis Nikitin from the Russian Volunteer Corps said that a number of Wagner mercs and members of Russian Shtorm Z units have joined their ranks. He said they only take those into the corps who have not committed war crimes. "They get to do what they love to do, and as commander of the RVC I have to provide them with the opportunity." Also "Some have already participated in an operation to liberate Ukrainian territory." Obviously Nikitin is a questionable personality, but I find this interesting if true. Over history, men have joined different military causes for a myriad of reasons, and often less than honorable ones. Some may be sick of the abysmal treatment they got from their Russian slavedrivers, some might be coming because they have nowhere else to go, some might harbour feelings of revenge, some might just be completely indifferent to what they do as long as they get some food and pay, some might harbour genuine regrets and now believe in the cause, some might have never been on board with the Russian invasion in the first place, and some might just be killers who thought this is the easiest way to get back into the thick of it. I am personally of the opinion that in this war of attrition, any man who is siphoned away from Russia is a net benefit for Ukraine, even better if he is willing to shoot at the Russian Army - though any egregious war criminal should be turned over to the authorities. Edited October 18, 2023 by Carolus 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dan/california Posted October 18, 2023 Share Posted October 18, 2023 Quote https://www.threads.net/@maks_23_ua/post/CyjF8NhLzZ3 Cyber specialists of the SBU used FPV drones to destroy 4 of Russia's newest "Murom" surveillance complexes, one "Pergam" and one "Pole-21" EW. Drones killing sensors is the new face of war. Discussed at length in the "Arms of the Future" book from RUSI. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kimbosbread Posted October 18, 2023 Share Posted October 18, 2023 3 minutes ago, dan/california said: Drones killing sensors is the new face of war. Discussed at length in the "Arms of the Future" book from RUSI. Man am I excitied to start reading tonight. But a better strategy would be to hack the sensors, or replace them, or feed them bad data! 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dan/california Posted October 18, 2023 Share Posted October 18, 2023 8 minutes ago, kimbosbread said: Man am I excitied to start reading tonight. But a better strategy would be to hack the sensors, or replace them, or feed them bad data! I am sure they are working on it. But I think it requires a drone with two or three orders of magnitude more sophistication from the drone. Killing expensive sensors with cheap drones is certainly not perfect, but is very much good enough. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maciej Zwolinski Posted October 18, 2023 Share Posted October 18, 2023 On 10/16/2023 at 9:46 PM, LongLeftFlank said: The vatniks are seriously assaulting across open, mined terrain mounted in softskinned trucks? (first :30) Wot he said.... The deterioration of the Russian ORBAT reminds me of the late WW2 Wehrmacht KSTNs. Russians are not yet at the stage of Panzergrenadier regiments mounted on bicycles per ToE, but gettng there fast 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maciej Zwolinski Posted October 18, 2023 Share Posted October 18, 2023 17 hours ago, The_Capt said: This is exactly what I was looking for…so it is probably just a raid. Oh, my but if they can achieve operational level breakthrough… I have seen estimates of the force gathered on the UKR side of Dnieper (for lack of better term; I know that both sides are legitimately UKR) at 12.000 men. Not enough for anything operational. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maciej Zwolinski Posted October 18, 2023 Share Posted October 18, 2023 14 hours ago, Battlefront.com said: I think this was posted the other day, but I don't recall anybody pointing out that it is a BMP-1AM "Basurmanin": On an unrelated note, the name always gets me. In Polish it is an really old style (like XVII century) derogatory term for a Muslim. Have Russians actually named an IFV after a 500-year old ethnic slur? So random.... 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cesmonkey Posted October 18, 2023 Share Posted October 18, 2023 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Battlefront.com Posted October 18, 2023 Share Posted October 18, 2023 7 minutes ago, Maciej Zwolinski said: I have seen estimates of the force gathered on the UKR side of Dnieper (for lack of better term; I know that both sides are legitimately UKR) at 12.000 men. Not enough for anything operational. 12,000 over the river and properly supported would have operational potential. Attacking westward would hit diminishing amounts of resistance and resources with each settlement retaken. Once cleared to the west there would be little need to garrison for defense, which would free up those forces to march eastward into the southern portion of its western flank of Russia’s southern front. Steve 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FancyCat Posted October 18, 2023 Share Posted October 18, 2023 Quote 27 ships! Six more ships have now sailed through the Black Sea humanitarian corridor, bringing the total to 27. Russia’s brutal war cannot stop Ukrainian grain and valuable cargo from reaching the world. 5 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FancyCat Posted October 18, 2023 Share Posted October 18, 2023 To compare, 4 days ago there were 21 ships that went thru, with the count being 27 today, in the span of 4 days, 6 ships have transited the corridor. Congrats to Ukraine despite having no navy, and contested airspace, on breaking a naval blockade allowing transit by ships crewed by 3rd party citizens. (the shipping insurers aren't afraid i think this means! not sure how these vessels are chartered for these voyages to Ukraine's ports) Quote With two more today, 21 ships have now departed through the Black Sea humanitarian corridor. Freedom of navigation prevails despite Russia’s attempts to block civilian shipping. The Black Sea should be open for commerce and remains an important route for ’s exports. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LongLeftFlank Posted October 18, 2023 Share Posted October 18, 2023 36 minutes ago, Maciej Zwolinski said: On an unrelated note, the name always gets me. In Polish it is an really old style (like XVII century) derogatory term for a Muslim. Have Russians actually named an IFV after a 500-year old ethnic slur? So random.... Well, the wokesters haven't come after 'Paddywagons' yet. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fenris Posted October 18, 2023 Share Posted October 18, 2023 (edited) Pretty impressive counter battery work of a sort - track a GRAD to it's base. Then destroy everything that's there - vehicles, ammo, personnel. Edited October 18, 2023 by Fenris 7 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maciej Zwolinski Posted October 18, 2023 Share Posted October 18, 2023 21 minutes ago, LongLeftFlank said: Well, the wokesters haven't come after 'Paddywagons' yet. That one is actually a bit of Schroedinger's slur, which may or may not be derogatory, depending on where actually the Irish gentlemen are intended to be travelling... 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dan/california Posted October 18, 2023 Share Posted October 18, 2023 1 hour ago, Battlefront.com said: 12,000 over the river and properly supported would have operational potential. Attacking westward would hit diminishing amounts of resistance and resources with each settlement retaken. Once cleared to the west there would be little need to garrison for defense, which would free up those forces to march eastward into the southern portion of its western flank of Russia’s southern front. Steve If they get 12,000 across, and a bridge up, they will find some more. They don't have to be the worlds best troops to shoot up supply convoys and artillery parks. Brilliant timing with several Russian brigades, and the operational ammo reserve being burnt to a cinder at Aviidka, and the ATACMS panic just good and started. Brilliant timing for a convincing fake, or the real deal either one. 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dan/california Posted October 19, 2023 Share Posted October 19, 2023 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The_Capt Posted October 19, 2023 Share Posted October 19, 2023 (edited) 4 hours ago, Battlefront.com said: 12,000 over the river and properly supported would have operational potential. Attacking westward would hit diminishing amounts of resistance and resources with each settlement retaken. Once cleared to the west there would be little need to garrison for defense, which would free up those forces to march eastward into the southern portion of its western flank of Russia’s southern front. Steve Heh, was going to be my comment. 12000 effective fighting force is a freakin division. A Division on the enemy side of the Dnipro with a secure sustainment link is terrifying for the RA defence. I am not confident we are seeing that level of operation but a boy can hope and pray. Edited October 19, 2023 by The_Capt 7 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Battlefront.com Posted October 19, 2023 Share Posted October 19, 2023 43 minutes ago, The_Capt said: Heh, was going to be my comment. 12000 effective fighting force is a freakin division. A Division on the enemy side of the Dnipro with a secure sustainment link is terrifying for the RA defence. I am not confident we are seeing that level of operation but a boy can hope and pray. Oh, I agree! 12,000 sounds very high. Consider that the Russian force at the start of the Kherson counter offensive was something like 22,000. Even if there are two full Ukrainian Marines Brigades that's, what, about 3000-4000 total? If Ukraine can put across even a couple thousand that would be a pretty heavy hitting force given the numbers and quality of Russian defenders. Steve 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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