How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?

[Artkin]

21 minutes ago, Kraft said:

I think this footage is a month old atleast

Yep I thought we've seen this before too. That FPV drone footage was pretty memorable.

[Maciej Zwolinski]

2 hours ago, poesel said:

And in the second paragraph: ...1918-1945. Before WW1 Germany was not so much different to the other nations in Europe wrt world order.

I disagree, German Empire after its establishment in 1871 was throwing its weight around and tried to be recognised as a great power at the level somewhere between France and Great Britain. It was also widely perceived then as the "bad boy" and likely the new aggressor. By referring to 1900  I tried to catch the the moment where Kaiser's Germany started trying to catch up in the race for the colonies and conflicting itself with the old colonial powers.  The Entente Cordiale of 1904 was already a symptom of that and it must have taken quite a lot of external pressure to bring together the old enemies the French and the British, so I would say beginning of the XX century at the latest. BTW I  think that is why Germany was blamed for starting WW I despite the fact, that actually it did not. Either Austria or Russia should get the dubious distinction, however everybody was so expecting the Germans to start the next war, that it just stuck.

[Maciej Zwolinski]

1 hour ago, dan/california said:

They came on in the same old way, and we sent them back in the same old way."
The Duke of Wellingtons tactical summary would seem to apply here.

In fact, the Iron Duke's other remark at Waterloo may be motto for the rest of the Ukrainian war:

"Hard pounding this, gentlemen. Let's see who pounds the longest"

[dan/california]

9 minutes ago, Maciej Zwolinski said:

I disagree, German Empire after its establishment in 1871 was throwing its weight around and tried to be recognised as a great power at the level somewhere between France and Great Britain. It was also widely perceived then as the "bad boy" and likely the new aggressor. By referring to 1900  I tried to catch the the moment where Kaiser's Germany started trying to catch up in the race for the colonies and conflicting itself with the old colonial powers.  The Entente Cordiale of 1904 was already a symptom of that and it must have taken quite a lot of external pressure to bring together the old enemies the French and the British, so I would say beginning of the XX century at the latest. BTW I  think that is why Germany was blamed for starting WW I despite the fact, that actually it did not. Either Austria or Russia should get the dubious distinction, however everybody was so expecting the Germans to start the next war, that it just stuck.

Germany was throwing its weight around, and there was high and rising anxiety about a war breaking out. I would argue, though that Germany had not decided to kick over the table and send the entire twentieth century off the rails until dominoes fell in the Balkans in the worst possible way. The echoes of the Grand Dukes driver taking a wrong turn simply beggar the imagination.

 

[dan/california]

 

Quote

 

Biden Says Military Assistance Is on Its Way to Israel

Israel has asked for “additional assistance,” according to Secretary of State Antony J. Blinken.

 

We need to start building ammo plants like there is a war on, or we are going to be very, VERY sorry. We have had eighteen months of warning, and mostly wasted it. 

Edited October 8, 2023 by dan/california

[Letter from Prague]

Eh, they'll probably just stop supporting Ukraine to make up the help for Israel.

If Russia had hands in this, big win for them.

 

[Beleg85]

Since we will likely not escape Israeli parallells entirely, here is very short article about motoparagliders and Russian experiences with them:

https://threadreaderapp-com.translate.goog/thread/1711120649060520200.html?_x_tr_sl=auto&_x_tr_tl=en&_x_tr_hl=pl&_x_tr_pto=wapp

Albeit in Middle East they were used alreayd before:

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Night_of_the_Gliders

I don't think there is big chance we will see wider use of them in Ukraine, but it may serve as addendum to previous discussions about light forces targeting heavier ones.

[poesel]

1 hour ago, Maciej Zwolinski said:

I disagree, German Empire after its establishment in 1871 was throwing its weight around and tried to be recognised as a great power at the level somewhere between France and Great Britain.

My point. The German Empire wanted to be like the other empires - before WW1. Not much of a difference (broadly speaking). After WW1 - different beast.

To bring this back on topic: I guess Russia was never not an Empire or better: never was non-imperialistic. Let's see, if they get rid of it or not this time.

[The_Capt]

50 minutes ago, Letter from Prague said:

Eh, they'll probably just stop supporting Ukraine to make up the help for Israel.

If Russia had hands in this, big win for them.

 

Really damn risky play.  Far right in the US get wind that Russia backed a slaughter of Israelis and the whole thing could swing enormous support into the arms of “let’s get Russia”.  Would only be a big win of the US does not find out and given the intelligence architectures in the region, that is a stretch.

Done the math.  The “help” will likely be symbolic.  Israel does not need a lifeline of support to pound Hamas into sand, they just needed permission…and I think they just got it.

[dan/california]

 

16 minutes ago, The_Capt said:

Really damn risky play.  Far right in the US get wind that Russia backed a slaughter of Israelis and the whole thing could swing enormous support into the arms of “let’s get Russia”.  Would only be a big win of the US does not find out and given the intelligence architectures in the region, that is a stretch.

Done the math.  The “help” will likely be symbolic.  Israel does not need a lifeline of support to pound Hamas into sand, they just needed permission…and I think they just got it.

Russia is fast running out of any other kind, of course invading Ukraine in the first place was whatever is beyond utterly reckless. I think the thread has pretty clearly established they are not exactly strategic geniuses either. Putin did invite the Hamas leadership for a wine and dine in Moscow a year or so ago. The odds aren't zero.

[The_Capt]

21 minutes ago, dan/california said:

 

Russia is fast running out of any other kind, of course invading Ukraine in the first place was whatever is beyond utterly reckless. I think the thread has pretty clearly established they are not exactly strategic geniuses either. Putin did invite the Hamas leadership for a wine and dine in Moscow a year or so ago. The odds aren't zero.

Russia really has been playing both sides down there.  They were pretty “ok” with Israel too, a lot of people with Russian family roots in Israel - ironic, they left because life was so crappy in Russia.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Israel–Russia_relations

There is also the whole “anti-Nazi” thing.  But at the same time Russia has sided with al-Assad in Syria and played footsie with Hamas and others aligned with Iran.  It seems pretty complicated.

I honestly think there is daylight between these two wars on the Russian side of the equation.  It will likely have an impact on the Westerd side but I am betting it was a surprise to Russia and they are basically going to try and stay neutral.  Hamas is a tiny militant group by conventional warfare standards - something like 40,000 at the upper end.  Their capabilities are not zero but no AirPower or Seapower.  They are very likely to loom at the lessons of Denial in Ukraine and types to apply them but it is a very different dynamic.  

I mean the world is a crazy place so if hard evidence linking this latest Hamas action directly comes it will be surprising - given Russian history of strategy-stupid.  But I really do not expect it.  Iran, definitely.  That is the shoe to drop on this one.  Gaza is screwed.  Ground invasion and house cleaning is almost guaranteed.  Hell, Israel might go so far as forced deportation but then Egypt gets weird.  But if Israel decides to make an a example with Iran we could see a repeat of something like:

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Operation_Opera

Gonna need a bigger forum if that happens.

 

[Kinophile]

Dunno if already posted

 

[MOS:96B2P]

43 minutes ago, The_Capt said:

But if Israel decides to make an a example with Iran we could see a repeat of something like:

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Operation_Opera

“Boys will be boys!” 

[kimbosbread]

Re paragliders, how well would they work for heavy cargo drones that are portable and easy to assemble and deploy?

[dan/california]

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Joint_Precision_Airdrop_System

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Joint_Precision_Airdrop_System#/media/File:JPADS_Illustration.png

The USAF aready has a gps guided parachute, it isn't a whole lot of engieering to get the rest of the way if somebody has not already done it. I have doubts about the utility outside of niche applications. A successful surprise attack would be exhibit one, as demonstrated unfortunately.  

Edit: although if the entire thing was plastic with a super low radar signature...

Edited October 9, 2023 by dan/california

[dan/california]

1 hour ago, The_Capt said:

Russia really has been playing both sides down there.  They were pretty “ok” with Israel too, a lot of people with Russian family roots in Israel - ironic, they left because life was so crappy in Russia.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Israel–Russia_relations

There is also the whole “anti-Nazi” thing.  But at the same time Russia has sided with al-Assad in Syria and played footsie with Hamas and others aligned with Iran.  It seems pretty complicated.

I honestly think there is daylight between these two wars on the Russian side of the equation.  It will likely have an impact on the Westerd side but I am betting it was a surprise to Russia and they are basically going to try and stay neutral.  Hamas is a tiny militant group by conventional warfare standards - something like 40,000 at the upper end.  Their capabilities are not zero but no AirPower or Seapower.  They are very likely to loom at the lessons of Denial in Ukraine and types to apply them but it is a very different dynamic.  

I mean the world is a crazy place so if hard evidence linking this latest Hamas action directly comes it will be surprising - given Russian history of strategy-stupid.  But I really do not expect it.  Iran, definitely.  That is the shoe to drop on this one.  Gaza is screwed.  Ground invasion and house cleaning is almost guaranteed.  Hell, Israel might go so far as forced deportation but then Egypt gets weird.  But if Israel decides to make an a example with Iran we could see a repeat of something like:

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Operation_Opera

Gonna need a bigger forum if that happens.

 

Maybe it as simple as hoping Mideast chaos bumps the oil price, which bumps Trump's chances?

 

[alison]

Please, guys, it's bad enough this thread has been dallying with conspiracy theories about how Russia invaded Ukraine because of Canada or something. I don't think it illuminates much about what's happening in Ukraine right now to theorize about how a conflict happening thousands of kilometers away - one which has been happening for decades longer than either Russia or Ukraine existed in their current incarnations - is actually all masterminded by Putin in order to... elect Trump?! I love political thrillers and spy stories too, but sometimes stuff around the world just happens, it doesn't all need to be connected to a sinister grand plan. For sure everything that happens everywhere in the world is connected in some way or another because that's the nature of human civilization, but that's a less interesting insight than I hope for given the expertise of people on this thread.

[Kinophile]

Definitely a smell of fevered dreams on here over the last few days... 

[Kinophile]

10 hours ago, Maciej Zwolinski said:

 

Why specifically Canada supports Ukraine, I cannot tell and you are obviously much better placed to know this, so if you are saying it is for moral reasons, then I won't argue too much. But I will not refrain from pointing out, that neither in the Ossetia war nor in 2014 Ukraine was Canada was engaged to the same extent.

 

 

It's really not tricky. 2008 Georgia and 2014 Ukraine were limited wars with limited objectives,  and limited effects on the Order Of Things -  so,  limited reactions. 

This war throws out every limit.  While it is nominally limited geographically its certainly not limited in its geopolitical ramifications and implications. 

So, very much not limited reaction but also limited in certain scopes (no direct boots on ground). 

Canada is 110% invested in the Current Order Of Things,  as is the US.  Ergo,  support. 

 

[dan/california]

38 minutes ago, Kinophile said:

Definitely a smell of fevered dreams on here over the last few days... 

Bleep it, I resemble that remark. I just can't shake the feeling that this is a re-run of August 1914. That we are somewhere past the actual assassination of the Grand Duke, but before The Austrians gave the Serbs a demarche they new would be rejected. Really hoping I am wrong.

Edited October 9, 2023 by dan/california

[billbindc]

On 10/7/2023 at 11:29 AM, The_Capt said:

I honestly do not even see that link.  Israel does not need anymore western support to deal with Hamas. The IDF is the 15th largest military on the planet by budget and has about 650k thousand troops to pull on.  They are amongst the most modern equipped and trained land forces in the world.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Israel_Defense_Forces

Hamas military wing is a fraction of that:

 https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Izz_ad-Din_al-Qassam_Brigades

An although getting some pretty deep pockets for a terror organization, is not in the same league with respect to conventional warfare.  

I am not sure what triggered this whole thing right now, but my money is on internal pressures not international events.

In fact Hamas timing is actually poor.  With the West being distracted and somewhat numb we probably will be less likely to care when the IDF start pounding the ever living crap out of Gaza, followed up by a brutal ground invasion.

Exact timing? Who knows. But in the larger picture, KSA and Israel are normalizing relations and that process is happening in a milieu where the importance of the Palestine issue is declining. Hamas is attempting to regain the leverage lost.

[billbindc]

3 hours ago, The_Capt said:

Russia really has been playing both sides down there.  They were pretty “ok” with Israel too, a lot of people with Russian family roots in Israel - ironic, they left because life was so crappy in Russia.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Israel–Russia_relations

There is also the whole “anti-Nazi” thing.  But at the same time Russia has sided with al-Assad in Syria and played footsie with Hamas and others aligned with Iran.  It seems pretty complicated.

I honestly think there is daylight between these two wars on the Russian side of the equation.  It will likely have an impact on the Westerd side but I am betting it was a surprise to Russia and they are basically going to try and stay neutral.  Hamas is a tiny militant group by conventional warfare standards - something like 40,000 at the upper end.  Their capabilities are not zero but no AirPower or Seapower.  They are very likely to loom at the lessons of Denial in Ukraine and types to apply them but it is a very different dynamic.  

I mean the world is a crazy place so if hard evidence linking this latest Hamas action directly comes it will be surprising - given Russian history of strategy-stupid.  But I really do not expect it.  Iran, definitely.  That is the shoe to drop on this one.  Gaza is screwed.  Ground invasion and house cleaning is almost guaranteed.  Hell, Israel might go so far as forced deportation but then Egypt gets weird.  But if Israel decides to make an a example with Iran we could see a repeat of something like:

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Operation_Opera

Gonna need a bigger forum if that happens.

 

I will be legitimately surprised if there was any significant Russian help given Hamas in setting up this operation. Visibility maybe to what was coming but the Russian state is struggling to hold onto Verbove and I seriously doubt they have the bandwidth for much more. That said, never underestimate the GRU's ability to grab a hot stove with both hands: 

 

Edited October 9, 2023 by billbindc

[The_Capt]

11 minutes ago, billbindc said:

I will be legitimately surprised if there was any significant Russian help given Hamas in setting up this operation. Visibility maybe to what was coming but the Russian state is struggling to hold onto Verbove and I seriously doubt they have the bandwidth for much more. That said, ever underestimate the GRU's ability to grab a hot stove with both hands: 

 

It this kinda goofing (the cyber thing) that tells me that there was no master plan- bunch of come latelies trying to cash in on news cycle.  Hamas went and made a mess because they are Hamas and want attention - and they are going to get it.  As dramatic as the action was, it was not decisive.  Israel has not lost strategic option space, they have gained it.  Typical Palestinian strategy of crushing enemies by burning your own house down.

As to the war in Ukraine, I mean sure there could be secondary or tertiary overlaps but any “master plan” by Russia is laughable considering how badly they screwed up in Ukraine.  As you note they may have some GRU goons pretending to be players but that entire region is like holding a skunk with a firecracker up its *** in the manipulation department.

Humans abhor uncertainty - most humans anyway - and we tend to invent patterns to try and make sense of it all.  Sometimes it is just another crappy day in the Middle East.  As to impact on this war, well I suspect they will be treated as separate issues for awhile but politics are the Playing Fields of Angry Ignorance at the best of times, so we will have to see.

[billbindc]

2 minutes ago, The_Capt said:

It this kinda goofing (the cyber thing) that tells me that there was no master plan- bunch of come latelies trying to cash in on news cycle.  Hamas went and made a mess because they are Hamas and want attention - and they are going to get it.  As dramatic as the action was, it was not decisive.  Israel has not lost strategic option space, they have gained it.  Typical Palestinian strategy of crushing enemies by burning your own house down.

As to the war in Ukraine, I mean sure there could be secondary or tertiary overlaps but any “master plan” by Russia is laughable considering how badly they screwed up in Ukraine.  As you note they may have some GRU goons pretending to be players but that entire region is like holding a skunk with a firecracker up its *** in the manipulation department.

Humans abhor uncertainty - most humans anyway - and we tend to invent patterns to try and make sense of it all.  Sometimes it is just another crappy day in the Middle East.  As to impact on this war, well I suspect they will be treated as separate issues for awhile but politics are the Playing Fields of Angry Ignorance at the best of times, so we will have to see.

If pressed, I would say that any significant effect on Iranian aid to Russia will only come if Hezbollah jumps in with both feet and there's a full bore war in Lebanon. Other than that, the effects are going to be quite limited. I am getting the feeling that there's a not small chance that this changes Israeli attitudes towards the war in Ukraine. When the Gaza incursions are somewhat sorted out, we may see some interesting things.

[dan/california]

 

40 minutes ago, billbindc said:

If pressed, I would say that any significant effect on Iranian aid to Russia will only come if Hezbollah jumps in with both feet and there's a full bore war in Lebanon. Other than that, the effects are going to be quite limited. I am getting the feeling that there's a not small chance that this changes Israeli attitudes towards the war in Ukraine. When the Gaza incursions are somewhat sorted out, we may see some interesting things.

Quote

https://thehill.com/policy/international/4243692-zelensky-on-israel-attack-everyone-who-values-life-must-stand-in-solidarity/

 

Zelensky's statement on the situation in Israel was perfect