How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?

[Carolus]

22 minutes ago, dan/california said:

In another Mid-east complication, and perhaps a more significant one for Ukraine, The U.S. and Turkey are either having major trust issues, or major deconfliction issues. U.S. clearly did not want that drone overhead. Article goes on to imply it was some Turkish intelligence agency. Maybe everyone involved will be smart enough too declare it was an accident, even if it maybe wasn't.

Let Turkey publicly deny that it was theirs, let water flow under the bridge, do some polite phone calls. 

I think everyone involved has learned their lesson.

[kimbosbread]

1 hour ago, Battlefront.com said:

I personally experienced this with 9/11.  I despised Bush Jr right up until that fateful day, at which point I literally stated that I'd put that aside and support doing what needed to be done. 

I was in freshman physics when this happened and looked and my neighbor and said “godammit the bastard got it done on the second try”. He nodded, and then I said “Lemme guess, I bet we will invade afghanistan instead of KSA”. This was followed by “**** I guess that’s it for going off my Lawrence of Arabia adventure next sumer”. We are still good friends. 

20 minutes ago, dan/california said:

In another Mid-east complication, and perhaps a more significant one for Ukraine, The U.S. and Turkey are either having major trust issues, or major deconfliction issues.

Oh, like the whole fake coup where we burned ourselves completely didn’t erode whatever “trust” existed before? There has been zero trust for a long time now.

[dan/california]

9 minutes ago, Carolus said:

Let Turkey publicly deny that it was theirs, let water flow under the bridge, do some polite phone calls. 

I think everyone involved has learned their lesson.

This exactly, pretend it never happened.

8 minutes ago, kimbosbread said:

I was in freshman physics when this happened and looked and my neighbor and said “godammit the bastard got it done on the second try”. He nodded, and then I said “Lemme guess, I bet we will invade afghanistan instead of KSA”. This was followed by “**** I guess that’s it for going off my Lawrence of Arabia adventure next sumer”. We are still good friends. 

Oh, like the whole fake coup where we burned ourselves completely didn’t erode whatever “trust” existed before? There has been zero trust for a long time now.

Trust was perhaps the wrong word. The U.S.-Turkey relationship is built on the basis that that we both dislike Russia, and Iran, more than we dislike each other. Indeed Erdogan was in The Caucuses this week trying to tighten the squeeze on Armenia and thumb his nose at Iran. He is pushing a corridor through Armenia from Turkey to Azerbaijan. Iran is less than enthusiastic, nobody seems to actually care what the Armenians think. The Russians are obviously a little busy. The Armenians have crap choices in both friends and neighborhoods. 

[Aragorn2002]

8 hours ago, Kinophile said:

I know Congress is important to Ukraine support but right now we know f-all, basically,  and no way to know more. 

Can we get back to the main course,  please? 

Well, I'm reasonably informed about US politics (for a European), but recently it's so hard to understand, that I'm reading the comments on this forum on this subject with greater interest. It's still hard to understand, but it helps me to understand how big the political mess in the US really is. And how things can go wrong very quickly in the coming years.

[chuckdyke]

9 minutes ago, Aragorn2002 said:

it's so hard to understand,

The pay is reasonable I would say, the retirement support is decent too. How come that position only attracts geriatrics? They could do more useful things like playing Combat Mission games. 

[FancyCat]

Looks like Russia is doubling down on sustained missile fires on civilians, looks like a apartment block. I swear, whenever Russia gets the idea that Ukraine is closing in on getting new capabilities, they turn on the civilian killing dial in some misguided belief that it dilutes the west from supplying it.

Makes no sense, for them to hit apartment buildings, market squares, hospitals literally days after Scholz advises caution and deescalation regarding Taurus missiles.

Maybe it's some "Scholz is a lying ****" method of making him look bad cause I really don't understand how images of apartment buildings torn apart does anything except corner the West into supplying missiles.

Quote

This morning, russians attacked the center of Kharkiv with Iskander missiles. Two buildings have been damaged, while another has been destroyed. Sixteen civilians have been injured. A 10-year-old child was killed. His body was discovered beneath the debris by rescue workers.

 

[Aragorn2002]

1 hour ago, chuckdyke said:

The pay is reasonable I would say, the retirement support is decent too. How come that position only attracts geriatrics? They could do more useful things like playing Combat Mission games. 

Indeed. I don't dislike Biden, but for Heaven's sake, wasn't there a younger, more mobile candidate in that huge country? And a colored lady as vice president. No problem in most Western European countries, but how many Americans will NOT vote for her, because she's black AND a woman? Sounds like a recipy for disaster to me.

Personally I will vote for a certain smart lady from Turkish-Kurdish origin in the next elections in the Netherlands (there's a good chance she will be the next prime minister of the Netherlands, as candidate for the VVD, which is a centre right liberal political party), but I doubt she would stand a chance in the US.

Edited October 6, 2023 by Aragorn2002

[chuckdyke]

13 minutes ago, Aragorn2002 said:

Indeed. I don't dislike Biden, but for Heaven's sake, wasn't there a younger, more mobile candidate in that huge country? And a colored lady as vice president. No problem in most Western European countries, but how many Americans will NOT vote for her, because she's black AND a woman? Sounds like a recipy for disaster to me.

I was there when Trump was the president and funny enough most people didn't talk about politics in the local bar. If it hadn't been for Covid he would have been reelected. He blames the Chinese most of all and most Americans are not racist was the definite expression I had. But that was California with a strong Latin influence. No, I felt completely at home there, San Diego was much like Perth West Australia weather wise. I think state politics play a bigger role than most people outside the US realize. That was my opinion when I was there. 2nd Amendment sporting store in San Francisco had all the goodies for sale and that is one of the strictest states in US. In my view a proper run store with all the securities in place. 

Edited October 6, 2023 by chuckdyke

[Teufel]

Interesting explanation to the accident of private jet traveling cross borders. I assume those hand grenades were purchased at the Duty Free Zones in Russia prior departure. Otherwise, we all know the rules, no grenades in hand luggage unless purchased after check in.

 

[Anon052]

There are talks that russia now uses a satellite guided missile-system similar to HIMARS with range up to 120 kms. Did anyone hear something? The surge in russian precision strikes on trains and similar targets way behind ukrainian lines points in that direction. If true it would be very bad news.

Edited October 6, 2023 by Anon052

[Teufel]

Let’s add few more things for those that missed this event. It’s no longer SMO but “so called war”.

Those bloody Israelites are bit of annoyance but we have plan to fix that.

 

[Teufel]

I forgot this one, end of truth newspeak after this one.

 

 

[chuckdyke]

13 minutes ago, Teufel said:

Interesting explanation to the accident of private jet traveling cross borders. I assume those hand grenades were purchased at the Duty Free Zones in Russia prior departure. Otherwise, we all know the rules, no grenades in hand luggage unless purchased after check in.

 

They have years and years experience shooting down airliners.

[Teufel]

In other realms of reality, we have this perspective.

 

[Teufel]

21 minutes ago, chuckdyke said:

They have years and years experience shooting down airliners.

Are you suggesting Putin is not telling the truth?!

[The_MonkeyKing]

https://kyivindependent.com/reuters-us-public-support-for-providing-arms-to-ukraine-declines/

Reuters: US public support for providing arms to Ukraine declines

The two-day poll, which concluded on Oct. 4, revealed that only 41% of respondents agreed with the statement that Washington "should provide weapons to Ukraine," while 35% disagreed, and the remainder were uncertain.

 

for reference War in Afghanistan support over time:

https://genzmilitary.com/2019/06/19/the-afghanistan-war-over-time/

[chuckdyke]

1 minute ago, Teufel said:

Are you suggesting Putin is not telling the truth?!

My dad told me sometimes Russians don't tell the truth. 

[Aragorn2002]

5 minutes ago, chuckdyke said:

My dad told me sometimes Russians don't tell the truth. 

My dad told me for Russians lying is as naturally as breathing. It sounds like we both had a wise father.

Edited October 6, 2023 by Aragorn2002

[Hapless]

An interesting interview with Ukrainian tankers:

What stands out is the use of tank-as-artillery.

The Ukrainians are engaging targets 7-8km out, enabled by drone spotters.
The Russians use tanks as static emplacements- when they need to fire, the gunner runs to the tank, jumps in, fires on assigned coordinates, then bails out and runs back. The tank stays where it is.

 

[Beleg85]

33 minutes ago, Teufel said:

Interesting explanation to the accident of private jet traveling cross borders. I assume those hand grenades were purchased at the Duty Free Zones in Russia prior departure. Otherwise, we all know the rules, no grenades in hand luggage unless purchased after check in.

Yup, another Valdai meeting. What is of note is that Putin is visibly much more relaxed on this than previous one; it's probably most jouyfull of his public meetings I can remember for last 2 years.

From his perspective, things are clearly going ok, or at least okayish. Ukrainian offensive was stopped or at least slowed down, Russian military hardened in blood (but this is also good from Kremlin point of view) and improved in many areas, state is now preparing itself for prolonged war. Human and economic costs are very high, but seems acceptable (let's hope at least about second part he is wrong and fed wrong data). Crucially- Prig is dead with Wagner partitioned, most vocal and fractious opponents shut down too, so his power is uncontested.

He is ofc. fully in narration of  "New, more natural, multicentric world", also traditional litanny of USA-related grudges follows.

[The_Capt]

Quick call for assistance from the community - in the massive stream of videos and link being posted on this monster thread, there was one that showed a UA company/bn attack from planning to execution - drones being used while HQ is directing.  Can someone re-post that link for me as a favour because I have no idea how to find it in the stream.  It was maybe last month, or even Aug?  Doesn't matter really, just need one of UA doing a deliberate attack and how they are doing tactical C2.

Please and thank you.

[chuckdyke]

Here is a good analysis why breaching the Russian lines takes so long. Subtitles are fine if you go to settings.

 

[Offshoot]

12 minutes ago, The_Capt said:

Quick call for assistance from the community - in the massive stream of videos and link being posted on this monster thread, there was one that showed a UA company/bn attack from planning to execution - drones being used while HQ is directing.  Can someone re-post that link for me as a favour because I have no idea how to find it in the stream.  It was maybe last month, or even Aug?  Doesn't matter really, just need one of UA doing a deliberate attack and how they are doing tactical C2.

Please and thank you.

These are a bit older (July) but this one on Maryinka might fit the bill - https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=yec-NG0CM8E&t=1449s

Or possibly also this one - https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0bZ8Lcf6wKY

 

Edited October 6, 2023 by Offshoot

[The_Capt]

Thanks guys.  Guess who got tagged to do a Future of Joint Warfare piece at work?  Yep, the guy who won't shut up about it.  If Steve was particularly profit driven he would charge a membership fee for this thread.

[Hapless]

14 minutes ago, The_Capt said:

Doesn't matter really, just need one of UA doing a deliberate attack and how they are doing tactical C2.

Please and thank you.

Drone operator video, looks like they have some kind of HQ element in the trench with them. Multiple parts.