How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?

[Seedorf81]

15 minutes ago, Lethaface said:

 

While all media has it's issues with bias at times, even public ones like NOS and Nieuwsuur, I feel it's more farfetched to think they area all (including their European partners) bought by FSB.
FWIW the investigative journalism on the side of Nieuwsuur / NOS is usually of a high level. These are publicly governed and funded news organizations providing among other things the public daily journals in The Netherlands (you know but not everyone here).

The information from the MIVD is also unlikely to be orchestrated by the FSB, unless one believes our military intelligence is compromised. 

Anyway, they don't rule out the Ukrainian assets where in some form used / orchestrated from Russia. Without having access to secrets we don't know how credible the MIVD itself think it's source is. Credible enough to act on it, that is for sure. 

Anyway I think it's dumb to look at this and think 'blablabla Russia is behind it and I won't believe anything else'. At the same time it would be dumb to conclude for certainty, at this time, that the Ukrainian leadership is behind this. There are still many possibilities, but as more information surfaces there is at least some doubt to be cast on the idea 'must be the Russian's. 
Therefore this again proves that it is always imperative to keep an open mind about uncertain things. 

 

Anyway, a 30min video about the findings (some of it is in Dutch):

https://nos.nl/nieuwsuur/video/2491937-nord-stream-hoe-alle-sporen-leiden-naar-oekraine

 

My thoughts exactly.

We should not forget that "All is fair in love and war".

I am not saying that I believe that the Ukrainians did blow up Nordstream2, and I wouldn't approve of it, but there is  a real possibility that they did.

If you feel that you fight for your bare existance, you do not (have to) consider the "hurt" feelings/goods of even your closest allies. See ww2 Mers - el Kebir, for instance.https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Attack_on_Mers-el-Kébir

We shouldn't exclude possibilities just because we don't like them.

[Dave2214]

I do not think the true history of this war will be known and printed for the public for a decade or more. It is that bad. Raw data is one thing; analysis is another. 

David

[Beleg85]

Galeotti linked this article lately, and it is indeed worth to post it here, if someone like to understand why rural Russians, against hopes of some analysts early in the war, are viewing Special Military Operation as something net positive. Not very heartworming but predictable. Urban centers can be different, though.

https://russiapost.info/regions/majority

Also, Shoigu on last conference with General Staff stated that they expect their war to last at least into 2025 and prepare themselves accordingly. There are also reportedly big changes coming in their military structures, namely new military districts are about to be created.

Edited September 27, 2023 by Beleg85

[dan/california]

40 minutes ago, Beleg85 said:

Galeotti linked this article lately, and it is indeed worth to post it here, if someone like to understand why rural Russians, against hopes of some analysts early in the war, are viewing Special Military Operation as something net positive. Not very heartworming but predictable. Urban centers can be different, though.

https://russiapost.info/regions/majority

Also, Shoigu on last conference with General Staff stated that they expect their war to last at least into 2025 and prepare themselves accordingly. There are also reportedly big changes coming in their military structures, namely new military districts are about to be created.

 

I agree it is a useful perspective. It does not entirely square with the difficulty that the Russian Regime seems to have raising new troops. It does explain the the overall passivity though. And Russia is certainly a large and complicated place. The_Capt wrote an excellent post many, many months ago about how a society consists of a multitude micro-social environments that have complicated arrangements with each other, and with the actual government. This particular micro-social environment seems to think that the regime is keeping/improving its bargain with them. 

I think a fair bit of this comes down to the regime needing something beside passive acquiescence to kleptocracy, and for the moment it is willing and able to actually pay for it. For decades now the Russian state has simply been a vehicle to turn oil money into princely lifestyles for those at the top. Whatever little bit had to be spent on the rest of the population was basically just a tax on the fortunes of the new Czars court. The war has forced a change in this arrangement. Now the regime actually needs people to do something, rather badly. So the sudden shower of money and attention appears to be an acceptable trade for the zinc coffins. The previous societal bargain was so bad this one seems better. There is nothing for it but see how many zinc coffins it takes to change their minds. The situation as described also seems primed for severe inflation once enough rubles have been sprinkled around randomly.

And of course all this is coming at the expense of those Princely Lifestyles(tm) one way or another, that may yet turn out to matter.

Edited September 27, 2023 by dan/california

[The_Capt]

29 minutes ago, Beleg85 said:

Galeotti linked this article lately, and it is indeed worth to post it here, if someone like to understand why rural Russians, against hopes of some analysts early in the war, are viewing Special Military Operation as something net positive. Not very heartworming but predictable. Urban centers can be different, though.

https://russiapost.info/regions/majority

Also, Shoigu on last conference with General Staff stated that they expect their war to last at least into 2025 and prepare themselves accordingly. There are also reportedly big changes coming in their military structures, namely new military districts are about to be created.

Very interesting on many levels.  Couple things jumped to mind:

- Rural Russia has not really changed since the Cold War.  In fact many may well have had it better under communism.

- Putin knew this and perhaps this is why the war happened in the first place.  It gives this entire demographic hope and a level of redistribution of wealth.

- It will work for at time but there are flaws built into the entire theory.  First if one is sustaining a war with mercenaries - and the dynamic in this article is very much mercenary-like, no one noted once an ideological reason for the war - you are going to get a military that fights like mercenaries.  They will fight but surviving to get paid is also on the agenda.  Once the pay stops, the will to fight stops.  This is a very dangerous internal transactional agreement for Russia.  People will not likely rise up en masse, they will simply stop showing up to fight.  Russian Will in this war is brittle based on this viewpoint.

- So how long can Russia afford to keep the money flowing?  At what point does the war become so lethal that no amount of money is worth it?

[dan/california]

18 minutes ago, The_Capt said:

- So how long can Russia afford to keep the money flowing?  At what point does the war become so lethal that no amount of money is worth it?

Or inflation makes the money itself worthless, with the same results..

[Kraft]

Interesting little guy riding the bomb into a Russian BMP.

[Ultradave]

18 hours ago, NamEndedAllen said:

For those who doubt that a tiny minority of USA Congressional Representatives can disrupt aid to Ukraine, let alone shut down the government of the USA:
https://www.nytimes.com/2023/09/25/us/politics/senate-shutdown-ukraine.html?smid=nytcore-ios-share&referringSource=articleShare
Money for Ukraine at Center of Senate Bid to Avert Shutdown

Resolved. There is money in the Senate continuing resolution for Ukraine aid (and US disaster relief as well). Now, the real question is whether the House will even consider it for a vote that way. 

I don't think there is much doubt that the Senate will continue to support Ukraine. And really the House as well, EXCEPT in the House, there are ~20 who will not under any circumstance, at least as yet, and that 20 of 435 can hold up everything, since there is only a 4 seat majority.  In the past, dissenters had "permission" to vote against, to satisfy their constituents, because when the votes were counted there were sufficient without the dissenters. This isn't the case now, and 20 are dictating terms to the entire 222 majority. And Speaker McCarthy is in a bad situation, of his own making. If he tries to pass the Senate bill, it may pass with Democratic help, since the Senate bill was bipartisan, but he'll be voted out of the speakership because he will supposedly have reneged on the agreement made with the 20 to get to be Speaker. If he tries to put forward his own resolution, and includes ALL the demands of the 20, it *might* pass, but will NEVER pass the Senate. It might not even pass the House, because there are plenty of Republicans who don't support the positions that the vocal 20 member minority hold. I'm using 20 because it's *about* that many and fluctuates day to day - we all know who the MOST vocal minority of the minority are and they seem to hold the power, a pretty amazing spectacle for first term Congresscritters to display.

Been watching all this with a feeling of both interest and horror. Not that it hasn't happened before, but in the past no one was holding the Speaker's job hostage at the same time.

The Pentagon has stated that in a shutdown, aid to Ukraine would continue as a priority measure not to be interrupted. So that's good anyway.

Dave

[Aragorn2002]

4 hours ago, Lethaface said:

 

While all media has it's issues with bias at times, even public ones like NOS and Nieuwsuur, I feel it's more farfetched to think they area all (including their European partners) bought by FSB.
FWIW the investigative journalism on the side of Nieuwsuur / NOS is usually of a high level. These are publicly governed and funded news organizations providing among other things the public daily journals in The Netherlands (you know but not everyone here).

 

Never said 'they all are'. But some for sure.

4 hours ago, Lethaface said:

 

The information from the MIVD is also unlikely to be orchestrated by the FSB, unless one believes our military intelligence is compromised. 

 

Again no. But the information of the MIVD can be manipulated by the FSB, which possibility is more or less admitted in  this documentary. The MIVD will be the first to admit that.

4 hours ago, Lethaface said:

 

Anyway I think it's dumb to look at this and think 'blablabla Russia is behind it and I won't believe anything else'. At the same time it would be dumb to conclude for certainty, at this time, that the Ukrainian leadership is behind this. There are still many possibilities, but as more information surfaces there is at least some doubt to be cast on the idea 'must be the Russian's. 

Therefore this again proves that it is always imperative to keep an open mind about uncertain things. 

 

 

Let's assume this is a Ukrainian-Polish operation. Perhaps even covered by the Americans, given the dutch warning to Washington, that such an operation was planned by the Ukrainians. Who is to benefit from getting that public? Right.

The 'people' do not have a 'right' to know the truth. Most of them are far too stupid for that and will draw the wrong conclusions. Russia is at this moment the enemy. That neither Ukraine nor Poland can be entirely trusted is no surprise to those who know the history of these two countries. But at this moment everybody must believe the Russians are behind it. That Swedish/Danish documentary I watched some time ago, is far more convincing than this dutch documentary.

I smell a rat and it's name is FSB.

Edited September 27, 2023 by Aragorn2002

[dan/california]

 

[Battlefront.com]

15 minutes ago, Aragorn2002 said:

Again no. But the information of the MIVD can be manipulated by the FSB, which possibility is more or less admitted in  this documentary. The MIVD will be the first to admit that.

This is the salient point.  The FSB is masters of using "cutouts" to push information into places that individuals/groups might legitimately think is real.  It's not a technique limited to the FSB either, as this is how the neocons shaped part of the false WMD premise for invading Iraq.  There was the infamous NYT article documenting the evidence that Cheney publicly pointed to as definitive proof the story was true, but it was later discovered that the NYT's sources all traced back to Cheney's office.  Where the NYT investigators on the neocon payroll?  Nope, they were just duped by someone more clever than they were.

Steve

[Battlefront.com]

4 hours ago, Fenris said:

Heh, the details paint a slightly different picture IMO. I don't think the MoD was actually wrong.  The 25th CAA was established a couple of months ago and wasn't due to finish it's training until December IIRC... So this reserve has only just been raised and did not exist at the start of the offensive.

I'm hopeful this means their usefulness is quite limited.

Yup.  I wonder what the reporting would look like when Russia finally relents and does another wave of mobilization?  "Ukraine said Russia's resources were stretched thin, but Russia in fact has 300,000 fresh forces moving into Ukraine now!"

Anyhoo, the Ukrainian MoD is correct that Russia's line is stretched thin and it has very little in the way of reserves.  The evidence of that is premature use of forces that were intended to see Russia through the winter.

Steve

[Battlefront.com]

48 minutes ago, Ultradave said:

And Speaker McCarthy is in a bad situation, of his own making. If he tries to pass the Senate bill, it may pass with Democratic help, since the Senate bill was bipartisan, but he'll be voted out of the speakership because he will supposedly have reneged on the agreement made with the 20 to get to be Speaker

This is an example of poor leadership.  Country should always be above party and absolutely above personal power.  He should be willing to "die on this hill" to make a stand against the extremists within his own party.

There are options, such as making a deal with the Dems and moderate Republicans to pass something that both sides agree to and the Dems cover McCarthy's butt by voting for him in the inevitable leadership challenge.  It's easy to take the power away from the extremists if their votes no longer matter.

But I'm daydreaming here.  McCarthy is not going to do the right thing even though, in the end, I don't see him surviving as Speaker because he chose to empower the extremists.

Steve

[Maciej Zwolinski]

2 hours ago, Beleg85 said:

Galeotti linked this article lately, and it is indeed worth to post it here, if someone like to understand why rural Russians, against hopes of some analysts early in the war, are viewing Special Military Operation as something net positive. Not very heartworming but predictable. Urban centers can be different, though.

https://russiapost.info/regions/majority

If this article correctly shows the sentiment in most of rural Russia, then Putin does not need to worry about the popularity of a new draft. People in that village should be happy to be conscripted. Therefore I am wondering what is keeping Putin back from announcing it - perhaps economy? Taking away people from productive economy and printing money for their pay is a double hit towards inflation.

[Letter from Prague]

The whole nordstream discussion is very strange.

I read (maybe in this very thread) that you need specialized training and specialized equipment to pull something like that off. A group of random divers operating from a tiny boat won't do, because it is too deep, etc.

Does Ukraine have that capability? Unlikely. Does Ukraine have a reason to do it? Not unless you do a lot of mentsl gymnastics. Does Ukraine have a history of messing with other countries' underwater infrastructure? Nope. Were any Ukrainian assets seen around? One suspected boat according to "anonymous sources" and the link to Ukraine seems to be some "Ukrainian" but actually Russian lady who visited Crimea maybe?

Does US have the capability? Probably, I'm sure SEALS can do some crazy stuff. Does US have a reason to do it? I'd say not much but it can be discussed (it seems the relationship impact would be very much not worth it even if US really didn't like the project). Does US have a history of messing with other countries' underwater infrastructure? Not that I know. Were US assests seen in the area? Not that I know of.

Does Russia have the capability? Yes. Does Russia have a reason to do it? Very much yes. Does Russia have history of messing with other coutries' underwater infrastructure? Yes. Were Russian assets seen in the area? Yes, specialized ship for underwater works was seen nearby before and after.

I mean, it is definitely possible Ukraine is behind it, or the US. But if you say "it's not the guys with the means, motive, history of doing something like it and who was seen around, it is actually the guys who had no reason, unlikely means, no history of doing it!" then I would expect a lot very very clear evidence. 

But we really don't have that, from what I've seen. Everything is pretty spotty.

Edited September 27, 2023 by Letter from Prague

[Kinophile]

 

 

[Kinophile]

 

 

[Beleg85]

2 hours ago, The_Capt said:

- It will work for at time but there are flaws built into the entire theory.  First if one is sustaining a war with mercenaries - and the dynamic in this article is very much mercenary-like, no one noted once an ideological reason for the war - you are going to get a military that fights like mercenaries.  They will fight but surviving to get paid is also on the agenda.  Once the pay stops, the will to fight stops.  This is a very dangerous internal transactional agreement for Russia.  People will not likely rise up en masse, they will simply stop showing up to fight.  Russian Will in this war is brittle based on this viewpoint.

I am not sure how this mode of recruitment translates into actual tactical effects that average Russian takes to the table, to be frank. We see numerous times that when fighting defensively from fortifications, even mobiks can be very stubborn soldiers, dying with weapons in hands like no westerners would do. Even if eventually golden rain of money (golden in glubinka's terms, not urban ones) will start to drain out, it is quite likely population will be obedient nonetheless, at least for some time. They may not like it like before, but will comply.

Now, Kremlin would probably need to admitt to itself that it lost most of its offensive potentiall in such predicament; soldiers may be less inclined to leave their hidings on small assaults which may be relegated to specialists like VDV or new PMC's. But since this war is waged defensively  and much part of it rest on artillery/drones anyway, the drop in fighting spirit may unfortunatelly be of relatively lesser importance. And note we talk about long time from now.

2 hours ago, The_Capt said:

At what point does the war become so lethal that no amount of money is worth it?

Apart from numbers, Ithink the crucial issue here is "we" and "I". Russian "I" can endure a long time of pressure from the state, including passive but distant danger of being drafted. "They may put my neighbours' son into the army, but as long as my family is ok- na chui dwell on it? Not my business. And the young brat would benefit from soem discipline and adventure btw." (large part of pupulation still is hooked on old Soviet story of war as adventrue, kind of physical excercise that is good for young men to mature up). Due to disjoined nature of their polity and lack of public-civic sphere, "we" does not work like in our societies. Additionally, gregarious and energetic persons undoubtedly know many ways of twisting out of service; this ability likely even evolved from the time we saw those young guys fleeing abroad early in war.

But I assume entire business of support for war may be one day decided in urban centres anyway, which are also centers of power. This can happen and shorten the war; just I wouldn't count on possiblity that Russia will run out off village boys to throw into meatgrinder. By the way- they always fight their wars like that. Kremlin is absolutelly aware and even admitt publically, that their ultimate resource is passivity and endurance. They aren't wrong, even if modern Muscovia lacks coherent driving ideology.

Edited September 27, 2023 by Beleg85

[Beleg85]

14 minutes ago, Kinophile said:

 

 

Alive and relatively well:

 

 

[Battlefront.com]

ISW has a pretty diverse group of detailed topics in the top section of yesterday's report.  Here's the opening statement for a long discussion on Russia's 42nd MRD:

Quote

Likely degraded elements of the Russian 58th Combined Arms Army’s 42nd Motorized Rifle Division are increasingly counterattacking in the Novoprokopivka area, suggesting that Ukrainian counteroffensive operations may have degraded relatively more elite Russian Airborne (VDV) elements that were responsible for counterattacking in the area. 

The gist of it is that this division was part of Russia's initial defensive force at the start of the counter offensive.  It was badly mauled and was withdrawn about a month ago.  I has likely been rebuilt/refreshed to some extent and is now participating in counter attacks.  ISW posits two possible reasons for this:

1. Russia's 7th and 76th VDV elements are no longer capable of conducting counter attacks and the 42nd was committed as a substitute
2. the 42nd's elements were already in Novoprokopivka and are simply engaged because they were already there

It could also be that both are true to some extent.

There is also discussion about the conflicting information about the status of Admiral Viktor Sokolov, the commander of the Black Sea Fleet, and some recent shenanigans by Kadyrov.  Which ties into the Nordstream discussion going on in previous posts.  One of Russia's tricks to mask potentially bad news is to deliberately spread multiple false reports of even worse news, then quickly counter their own false narrative.  This serves to confuse and discredit sources of information that might otherwise have made more accurate reporting.

Kadyrov is possibly a good example of this.  It is very possible that he had some sort of major health scare and that information leaked out.  Knowing there is a real health problem they don't want anybody to know about, multiple stories of him being dead or in rehab or whatever were "leaked" to Russian assets and legitimate sources that don't check their sources thoroughly enough.  The result is everybody is chattering about Kadyrov being dead or gravely ill, then when it's clear that people have taken the bait, proof that the extreme stories are untrue is offered.  In this case, a video of Kadyrov that is clearly recent.

The same might have happened with Sokolov.  He could have been severely injured, Russia leaked that he was dead, then they show him alive.  This is probably what happened with Putin and Lukashenko last year.

This same thing could be going on with Nordstream with Russia feeding information to various groups that then treat the false information seriously.  Even if the reporting is done cautiously, the underlying disinformation still gets out there and reinforces the message Russia wants.

Steve

[Harmon Rabb]

As a DCS player I love this video. Ukrainian pilots using DCS to familiarize themselves with the F-16.

If this is not a testament to the quality of the F-16 module for DCS I don't know what is. Highly recommend trying that module by the way.

Edited September 27, 2023 by Harmon Rabb

[Astrophel]

4 hours ago, Dave2214 said:

I do not think the true history of this war will be known and printed for the public for a decade or more. It is that bad. Raw data is one thing; analysis is another. 

David

I fear when we look back at this war in a decade or more we will be kicking ourselves for not getting more directly involved.  The extent of russian barbarity is truly shocking and it is happening next door - clash of cultures.

[Harmon Rabb]

1 hour ago, Beleg85 said:

Alive and relatively well:

 

 

Do we know when this video was filmed? I have heard some claim that this was filmed before the attack. I don't think I heard him directly mention the attack in this video.

I'm not arguing that he is dead or alive, I just want to try getting all the facts straight here.

Edited September 27, 2023 by Harmon Rabb

[Ultradave]

48 minutes ago, Battlefront.com said:

This is an example of poor leadership.  Country should always be above party and absolutely above personal power.  He should be willing to "die on this hill" to make a stand against the extremists within his own party.

There are options, such as making a deal with the Dems and moderate Republicans to pass something that both sides agree to and the Dems cover McCarthy's butt by voting for him in the inevitable leadership challenge.  It's easy to take the power away from the extremists if their votes no longer matter.

But I'm daydreaming here.  McCarthy is not going to do the right thing even though, in the end, I don't see him surviving as Speaker because he chose to empower the extremists.

Steve

Yes, McCarthy is no leader. At all. And that is not a partisan remark. He just is not up to the job he's in. It's like the title of Speaker was his goal, but not performing the role of Speaker. 

I gather from remarks made that Democrats are not eager to prop up McCarthy. It may come to that though, if the alternative is such chaos that Democrats feel they just have to in order to avoid a lot of damage to the public. I have to say I'd LOVE to see the sputtering and indignation from the "insurgents" if that happens. It will be epic!

As a general comment, there are a LOT of politicians that need to be reminded of their oath of office. Maybe they should recite THAT every day before business starts, rather than the pledge of allegiance. 

To stay somewhat on topic, it seems that US aid to Ukraine is still safe for the foreseeable future. Whatever happens with the above, there appears to be plenty of pro-Ukraine aid sentiment to overcome any opposition.

Dave

[The_Capt]

37 minutes ago, Beleg85 said:

I am not sure how this mode of recruitment translates into actual tactical effects that average Russian takes to the table, to be frank. We see numerous times that when fighting defensively from fortifications, even mobiks can be very stubborn soldiers, dying with weapons in hands like no westerners would do. Even if eventually golden rain of money (golden in glubinka's terms, not urban ones) will start to drain out, it is quite likely population will be obedient nonetheless, at least for some time. They may not like it like before, but will comply.

Now, Kremlin would probably need to admitt to itself that it lost most of its offensive potentiall in such predicament; soldiers may be less inclined to leave their hidings on small assaults which may be relegated to specialists like VDV or new PMC's. But since this war is waged defensively  and much part of it rest on artillery/drones anyway, the drop in fighting spirit may unfortunatelly be of relatively lesser importance. And note we talk about long time from now.

Apart from numbers, Ithink the crucial issue here is "we" and "I". Russian "I" can endure a long time of pressure from the state, including passive but distant danger of being drafted. "They may put my neighbours' son into the army, but as long as my family is ok- na chui dwell on it? Not my business. And the young brat would benefit from soem discipline and adventure btw." (large part of pupulation still is hooked on old Soviet story of war as adventrue, kind of physical excercise that is good for young men to mature up). Due to disjoined nature of their polity and lack of public-civic sphere, "we" does not work like in our societies. Additionally, gregarious and energetic persons undoubtedly know many ways of twisting out of service; this ability likely even evolved from the time we saw those young guys fleeing abroad early in war.

But I assume entire business of support for war may be one day decided in urban centres anyway, which are also centers of power. This can happen and shorten the war; just I wouldn't count on possiblity that Russia will run out off village boys to throw into meatgrinder. By the way- they always fight their wars like that. Kremlin is absolutelly aware and even admitt publically, that their ultimate resource is passivity and endurance. They aren't wrong, even if modern Muscovia lacks coherent driving ideology.

I really do not understand something here - and I am not pushing back or being confrontational, honestly puzzled.  What is it about Russian society that somehow embraces these paradoxes?

In the article the writer described a largely detached micro-social dynamic.  No one is mentioning an ideal - no Mother Russia or greater purpose to defend and die for. The entire thing is "well now we can afford a toilet that flushes...totally worth it."  Secondary we see peer-pressure and social values at play in a micro-sense.  The little a$$hat of the neighborhood is now a Wagner war hero - guys like that will milk this for the rest of their lives.  Wars bring bragging rights, tale as old as time and particularly impactful in a largely disenfranchised sub-set of society. 

All that, plus a largely transactional mercenary agreement does not scream "social resilience" to me.  Why on earth would that neighborhood send its young men to die if the money runs out?  Why obey a macro-social construct whose major benefit has been "gas, not coal" in the last 30 years?  To my mind these are signs of an incredibly brittle society, held together by shared misery.  Not something one can use as a foundation for a major war.

"We" and "I" is a tale as old as time.  It is why I did up that calc that Russia needs to lose around 1.5 million young men before everyone feels it.  And based on this article I am not sure even then a lot of Russians will give a crap.  I know this is one snapshot but it portrays a sprawled out and dis-connected society where apathy and quick monetary gain, not ideas or morality, rule.  

Of course mobiks can dig in an die.  Surrender means PoW, which likely means "no money" and social shame - most teenagers will choose death first.  This is not solely Russian in the least.  The worst troops will fight like badgers when they have zero other options.

Urban centers as far as I can see have 1) left the entire discussion, or 2) bought off and are all nationalistic.  An over-simplification I understand.

I can see no clear reason why Russia started this war (we have discussed this at great length and no clear theory has ever been presented).  But I can even understand less how Russian society can sustain losing it for this long.  This article really highlights a theme we have seen before - Russia is one big messy paradox:

- Meh, I don't really care...but I will send all my kids to fight and die in Ukraine because Putin says so!

- Meh, I am only in the army for the money.  But I will die to the last man holding onto this patch of dirt!

- I am dodging service like a madman, but I support the war, even passively. 

I have never seen such a collection of aggressive-apathy/apathy-aggressive paradoxes.