How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?

[danfrodo]

7 minutes ago, Heirloom_Tomato said:

But, wouldn't that require a dress code?/s

I find it interesting that the same folks who think an attack by thousands of crazed zealots on the US capital was some trivial thing, now think the lack of dress code is the end of the world.

[Lethaface]

3 minutes ago, Butschi said:

This...

... and this precisely.

Nobody doubts what the Polish people have done for Ukraine. But other countries (incl. Germany) have also taken many, many refugees. And other countries (incl. Germany) have contributed equipment from their active units or equipment that was supposed to go to active units. And yes, Poland has contributed equipment that was supposed to be replaced, anyway. That's perfectly ok because other countries did that, too, or sent stuff that has been deprecated already (Leopard 1s).

What other governments didn't do was try to squeeze out every little bit of profit there was to gain for their election campaigns. Other governments didn't claim the moral high ground the way the Polish government did. Others also didn't spread anti EU and anti Getmany sentiments while gladly taking their money. He who lives by the sword, dies by the sword, as the saying goes. So, if the Polish government sings the song of solidarity with Ukraine, while bashing others, they had better make good on their words.

Anyway, let's not escalate this too much. Scholz & Co deserved a lot of the criticism they received and we German forumites just had to deal with it. I think the Polish government had this coming a long way, so the Polish members here will have to just deal with it, too. I admit to enjoying some Schadenfreude but I'll enjoy it quitely.

 Guilty as well. I think it would be a good name for a beer, 'Schadenfreude, best enjoyed silently'

[danfrodo]

Steve above highlighted the ISW report saying UKR now has vehicles & armor behind some layers of RU's defense lines.  I saw this last night and was quite excited and agree w Steve that 'maybe' cutting Tokmak is in play.  One of my dog walk neighbors predicted that "UKR would breakthrough within a week".  His prediction runs through Sept 24 so we'll find out is this guy was a prophet soon I guess.

I find it particularly interesting that RU seems unable to completely stop UKR in this region despite denuding other fronts of resources.  A very good sign.

[cesmonkey]

1 hour ago, Letter from Prague said:

Consider in US small coke is like half liter and small car has six tons, I hope it's at least a thousand.

Assuming the Wikipedia article is accurate - it's probably not up-to-date - you can do the math on how many are available:
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/MGM-140_ATACMS#Variants
 

Quote

Variants[edit]

• M39 (ATACMS Block I) missile with inertial guidance. It carries 950 M74 Anti-personnel and Anti‑materiel (APAM) bomblets. Range: 25–165 kilometres (16–103 mi). 1,650 M39 were produced between 1990 and 1997, when production ceased in favor of the M39A1. During Operation Desert Storm 32 M39 were fired at Iraqi targets and during Operation Iraqi Freedom a further 379 were fired.^[22][23] The remaining M39 missiles are being updated to M57E1 missiles.^[24][25] This is the only variant that can be fired by all M270 and M142 launcher variants.
• M39A1 (ATACMS Block IA) missile with GPS-aided guidance. It carries 300 M74 Anti-personnel and Anti‑materiel (APAM) bomblets. Range: 20–300 kilometres (12–186 mi). 610 M39A1 were produced between 1997 and 2003. During Operation Iraqi Freedom 74 M39A1 were fired at Iraqi targets.^[22][23] The remaining M39A1 missiles are being updated to M57E1 missiles.^[24][25] The M39A1 and all subsequently introduced ATACMS missiles can only be used with the M270A1 (or variants thereof) and the M142.
• M48 (ATACMS Quick Reaction Unitary [QRU]) missile with GPS-aided guidance. It carries the 500-pound (230 kg) WDU-18/B penetrating high explosive blast fragmentation warhead of the US Navy's Harpoon anti-ship missile, which was packaged into the newly designed WAU-23/B warhead section. Range: 70–300 km (43–186 mi). 176 M48 were produced between 2001 and 2004, when production ceased in favor of the M57. During Operation Iraqi Freedom 16 M48 were fired at Iraqi targets and a further 42 were fired during Operation Enduring Freedom.^[22][23] The remaining M48 missiles are in the US Army and US Marine Corps' arsenal.
• M57 (ATACMS TACMS 2000) missile with GPS-aided guidance. It carries the same WAU-23/B warhead section as the M48. Range: 70–300 km (43–186 mi). 513 M57 were produced between 2004 and 2013.^[22][23] Accuracy is 9 m (30 ft) CEP (Circular Error Probability).^[26]
• M57E1 (ATACMS Modification [MOD]) missile with GPS-aided guidance. The M57E1 is the designation for upgraded M39 and M39A1 with re-grained motor, updated navigation and guidance software and hardware, and a WAU-23/B warhead section instead of the M74 APAM bomblets. This variant includes a proximity sensor for airburst detonation.^[24] Production commenced in 2017 with an initial order for 220 upgraded M57E1s.^[22][23]

Update:
SLEP is the name of the program for updating the bomblet variants to the unitary warhead version M57E1.

The target was a maximum of 500 per contract:
https://www.militaryaerospace.com/sensors/article/14207794/munitions-navigation-and-guidance-payloads

(290 for FY 2019)
https://www.defensedaily.com/lockheed-martin-receives-358-million-atacms-deal-readying-precision-strike-missile-testing-2019/army/

Given that they funded this multiple times, nearly all may have been upgraded by now:
https://asc.army.mil/web/portfolio-item/atacms/

Quote

PROGRAM STATUS

2QFY18: ATACMS Unitary Height-of-Burst Operational Test #1 and #2 at White Sands Missile Range, New Mexico
3QFY18: SLEP 2 Production Contract Award
3QFY19: SLEP 3 Production Contract Award with two Options
2QFY20: SLEP 4 Production Contract Option 1 Award

PROJECTED ACTIVITIES

3QFY21: SLEP 5 Production Contract Option 2 Award

 

Edited September 22, 2023 by cesmonkey

[Lethaface]

51 minutes ago, Beleg85 said:

NBC site is blocked somehow, do they specify the numbers? "Small" can range anything from several to low hundreds.

AFAIK they don't have that many to begin with. So if it is true I guess small will be more like 20 than 200. Anyway it might help decision making in Germany for sending (small number of) Taurus and or other countries. 
All in all I don't see such developments making a crucial difference, given what Ukr is already achieving. But it could allow extra strikes against important targets, like the strike against the drydock. 
On the other hand, if Ukraine would be able to source hundreds of extra long range precision cruise/ballistic missiles it could make a large impact.

[dan/california]

 

Quote

https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/ukraine-the-latest/id1612424182?i=1000628836833

 

A long interview with a U.N. person. The interview leads me to the conclusion that the United Nations should simply close. They are much worse than worthless. 

[Lethaface]

12 minutes ago, danfrodo said:

Steve above highlighted the ISW report saying UKR now has vehicles & armor behind some layers of RU's defense lines.  I saw this last night and was quite excited and agree w Steve that 'maybe' cutting Tokmak is in play.  One of my dog walk neighbors predicted that "UKR would breakthrough within a week".  His prediction runs through Sept 24 so we'll find out is this guy was a prophet soon I guess.

I find it particularly interesting that RU seems unable to completely stop UKR in this region despite denuding other fronts of resources.  A very good sign.

To be honest I don't really pay much attention towards predictions anymore, nobody can predict this stuff without inside info, if even anyone with inside info can do it better compared to the average tarot card layer.

That being said, since last week orso there have been various positive developments. I think it's too early to say these developments will actually bring tangible changes beyond the intrinsic value/impact of the strikes/achievements themselves. But positive signs they are.

[Sekai]

1 hour ago, Letter from Prague said:

Consider in US small coke is like half liter and small car has six tons, I hope it's at least a thousand.

How many does the US has in stock of these little puppies?

Edited September 22, 2023 by Sekai

[Battlefront.com]

OK, let's put a cork in the whole bashing thing.  As with German Bashing™ in the past, it serves a valid function on this forum to get perspectives from various nationalities and political leanings to help us all come to a better understanding of what X government just did (or in the case of the Germans, didn't do.  Sorry, couldn't resist! ).  It takes a little while for that to be accomplished, then if it needs to stop (or at least pause) because it becomes distracting instead of helpful.

We're at that stage with the Polish stuff.

My overall take on it is governments never lose their incentives to make statements or take actions which are seen as politically beneficial for their domestic supporters.  No country is immune to this.  What is more important is to look at the overall track record.  Germany, quite rightly, was criticized for saying a bunch of stupid stuff and then not taking action on the smart stuff they did manage to say.  Poland has at times been a wrecking ball of statements, but one thing nobody can criticize them for (at least legitimately) is a lack of action.  Ukraine has also set a high bar for any nation in war for all future conflicts, but it has screwed up a few times with its messaging (Zelensky snubbing the German President and this grain row) and actions (like with corruption... #1 concern of the West, yet top levels of the MoD thought it would be OK).

And I won't even get started with the US' many issues, especially because it seems finally ATACMS are in play!

Sooooo... we are all learning a lot here.  I thank everybody for keeping the knowledge flowing.  But yeah, we have beaten the grain dispute enough and we should move onto happier topics like the HQ of the BSF going boom.

Steve

[dan/california]

1 minute ago, Battlefront.com said:

we should move onto happier topics like the HQ of the BSF going boom.

Steve

Osiinttechnical has an approximate infinity of very recent videos of Russian stuff going boom under the hammer of various PGMs. I think this radar is probably the most significant single piece of kit that got permanently demilitarized.

[dan/california]

Is  this true? And if so is it illegal? Their has to be some way to sanction any money changing hands? Even if we can't make him shut up.

[Battlefront.com]

2 hours ago, Haiduk said:

BSF HQ from other point of view.

For citizens of Sevastopol, who known with own boast and snobbery that they are live in the place of Russian glory and legendary BSF, who from the cradle know the city anthem "Legendary Sevastopol impregnable for foes", for them this HQ building is almost sacral center. So, the strike on it is almost the same if White House in Washington would be hit

I want to highlight what Haiduk stated here.

I've been waiting for a strike on the BSF HQ on this scale for the entire war.  Aside from a small attack early on, which small enough that most here probably forgot it happened, the Black Sea Fleet has been able to work out of this building specifically and Sevastopol generally, with impunity.  This week?  Not so much.

Hitting the HQ after smashing a few ships seems to me a very smart psychological approach.  Building up to this strike establishes escalation, and escalation breeds uncertainty which can then lead to panic.  Smashing the HQ first might have caused some naval targets to move before Ukraine had a chance to strike them.  This way, the panic is after.

Smart.

I agree with Haiduk that this strike on the HQ has meaning and ramifications well beyond the physical damage.  One thing is Russia is going to have to relocate it's large fixed command centers after this and the 58th CAA HQ was hit (also this week).  Russia has already had to pull back its more forward HQs, now it has to pull back its HQs far to the rear.  It's not impossible to continue overseeing this war from Vladivostok, but it sure will be a lot harder! 

If there's one thing we know about Russia's capabilities, they never ever have recovered from a setback.  Adapted?  Sure, but as our own beloved BFC Elvis loves to say... if Plan B was as good as Plan A then it would be Plan A.

Steve

[Lethaface]

1 minute ago, dan/california said:

Is  this true? And if so is it illegal? Their has to be some way to sanction any money changing hands? Even if we can't make him shut up.

Use your second amendment

 

[Lethaface]

3 minutes ago, Battlefront.com said:

I want to highlight what Haiduk stated here.

I've been waiting for a strike on the BSF HQ on this scale for the entire war.  Aside from a small attack early on, which small enough that most here probably forgot it happened, the Black Sea Fleet has been able to work out of this building specifically and Sevastopol generally, with impunity.  This week?  Not so much.

Hitting the HQ after smashing a few ships seems to me a very smart psychological approach.  Building up to this strike establishes escalation, and escalation breeds uncertainty which can then lead to panic.  Smashing the HQ first might have caused some naval targets to move before Ukraine had a chance to strike them.  This way, the panic is after.

Smart.

I agree with Haiduk that this strike on the HQ has meaning and ramifications well beyond the physical damage.  One thing is Russia is going to have to relocate it's large fixed command centers after this and the 58th CAA HQ was hit (also this week).  Russia has already had to pull back its more forward HQs, now it has to pull back its HQs far to the rear.  It's not impossible to continue overseeing this war from Vladivostok, but it sure will be a lot harder! 

If there's one thing we know about Russia's capabilities, they never ever have recovered from a setback.  Adapted?  Sure, but as our own beloved BFC Elvis loves to say... if Plan B was as good as Plan A then it would be Plan A.

Steve

Thanks for shedding more light on the potential worth of the target. 

[dan/california]

My hot take is that they have sent everything that would move under its own power to the front, and pulled the barrels off of everything that wouldn't. And when those barrels are used up, the next batch is coming from where exactly? This also gives a pretty good estimate of what percentage of one of these outside storage parks is vaguely usable.

[Vet 0369]

2 hours ago, holoween said:

Also poles like to conveniently ignore this when discussion contributions.

But lets put this to rest. Polish military aid has been invaluable by being there early on and in quantity.

But polish rethoric quite often doesnt square with their actions especially if there is a chance to screw over germany.

Let’s get our equations and definitions set. “Political rhetoric” equals “Political BS.” Both terms apply to the principle of pandering to a chosen electorate for the sole purpose of Politicians (again, the roots of “politician” are two words, Greek for “many” and ticks that are bold sucking insects) to attain or retain a political office. While I’m sure there are, and have been, some who seek office for altruistic reasons, I can’t find any in the entire political world!

[danfrodo]

2 minutes ago, Vet 0369 said:

Let’s get our equations and definitions set. “Political rhetoric” equals “Political BS.” Both terms apply to the principle of pandering to a chosen electorate for the sole purpose of Politicians (again, the roots of “politician” are two words, Greek for “many” and ticks that are bold sucking insects) to attain or retain a political office. While I’m sure there are, and have been, some who seek office for altruistic reasons, I can’t find any in the entire political world!

the whole concept of "all politicians are bad and therefore the same" is ridiculous.  It's just cliche' masquerading as insight.

[LongLeftFlank]

...when Tankies....

https://www.nakedcapitalism.com/2023/09/poland-ukraine-have-plunged-into-a-full-blown-political-crisis-with-no-end-in-sight.html

https://scheerpost.com/2023/09/16/ukraines-reconstruction-in-blackrocks-hands-gabor-mate-on-explosion-of-antidepressants/

AfterUkraine'sinfrastructureisdestroyedbyNATO'sproxywaragainstRussia,corporationslikeBlackRockandJ.P.MorganplantoworkwithcorruptUkrainianofficialsundermartiallawtoseizethelandandreapbillionsinprofit. 

All your base....

Edited September 22, 2023 by LongLeftFlank

[Huba]

Missile diving into BSF HQ caught on camera:

 

[Letter from Prague]

I mean I enjoy Germany-bashing and Poland-bashing about as much (normal are neighbour relations, I think) but that chart with contributions should definitely be per-capita. Then the whole discussion would probably be "why are we giving so much money to Hungary?"

 

[danfrodo]

12 minutes ago, Huba said:

Missile diving into BSF HQ caught on camera:

 

Dumb question of the day:  how does degrading RU naval capabilities affect the war?  Because these ships launch missiles at UKR?  Because these ships would attack other shipping?  To some here may seem dumb question, but seriously what does this achieve?  I get how much fun this is to watch, but since it's a land war what does this do?

[Harmon Rabb]

Translated using Google Translate.

Quote

departmental discussion a draft of a new mandate for the training of the Ukrainian military in the country. Defense Minister Yana Chernokhova announced this on September 21 during an open discussion in Prague with her former Slovak colleague Yaroslav Nad. Yana Chernokhova also pointed out that the Czech Republic is negotiating with Sweden about the training of Ukrainian pilots on the "Grypen" fighters on the territory of the Czech Republic. In the spring and early summer, about 2,000 Ukrainian servicemen trained at the Lybava training ground in Olomouc. According to the previously adopted decision of the government, the goal was to train about 4,000 Ukrainian military personnel on the territory of the Czech Republic by the end of 2023. The head of the Ministry of Defense said that the Czech Republic will continue to provide support to Ukraine, including in the form of arms supplies. Although the stocks in the Czech Republic are decreasing, the transfer of weapons to Ukraine may continue in the future, including thanks to the Czech Army's supply of new Western equipment. "Our equipment [transferred to Ukraine] was not even from mobilization stocks. This was the kind of equipment that we will never use again, and a significant number of military personnel were not even trained to work with it," the minister said, clarifying that there are no spare parts and ammunition for this equipment. According to Chernokhova, compensation for military aid to Ukraine is generally higher than what the Czech Republic spent on its supplies. The minister did not name the specific amounts, however, according to her, "the Czech Republic is in the red."

Source: Radio Prague International

[Letter from Prague]

1 minute ago, danfrodo said:

Dumb question of the day:  how does degrading RU naval capabilities affect the war?  Because these ships launch missiles at UKR?  Because these ships would attack other shipping?  To some here may seem dumb question, but seriously what does this achieve?  I get how much fun this is to watch, but since it's a land war what does this do?

All of the above - but also the whole reason we are even now talking about Poland relations is because Russian fleet makes it difficult for Ukraine to export grain via the sea.

Ane the fleet will be important part of the occupiers supplying themselves if Ukraine manages to blow up the Kerch bridge, cut the rail connection, etc

[dan/california]

24 minutes ago, danfrodo said:

Dumb question of the day:  how does degrading RU naval capabilities affect the war?  Because these ships launch missiles at UKR?  Because these ships would attack other shipping?  To some here may seem dumb question, but seriously what does this achieve?  I get how much fun this is to watch, but since it's a land war what does this do?

More than anything else Ukraine seems to be systematically demilitarizing the Russian IAD system in Crimea. Once that is gone all sorts of bad things happen to the Russians. If they bring in a bunch of new systems, well there is a weak spot somewhere else, because Russia doesn't have spare anything at this point.

Edited September 22, 2023 by dan/california

[Lethaface]

35 minutes ago, Letter from Prague said:

I mean I enjoy Germany-bashing and Poland-bashing about as much (normal are neighbour relations, I think) but that chart with contributions should definitely be per-capita. Then the whole discussion would probably be "why are we giving so much money to Hungary?"

 

The problem is more with Orban's oligarch tendencies than those numbers imo.