How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?

[Haiduk]

Yeaterday Russians struck the bridge through Oskol river in Kupiansk and destroyed it. 8 people, who have droven in own cars in moment of strike were killed. 

Today it was claimed Russians have used own new wepon - hybride bomb-missile Grom-E1. This is gliding 500 kg bomb, integrated in the hull of new Kh-38 missile. It has 120 km of range. This weapon was introduced in 2012, and first examples were adopted in 2015, but level of production still very low - no more several pieces for a month.

   

[kimbosbread]

48 minutes ago, The_Capt said:

Illustrates my point perfectly.  I personally think Pinker is selling cool aid and using selective statistic to try and flavour.  Considering the potential long term impacts of this war, I do not think a "well at least it isn't WW2" line of thinking is really all that helpful.  The scope and scale of its impact are not directly related to body counts or any single metric.  

Yeah. Arab Spring wasn’t a war, but the ongoing refugee crisis has the potential to seriously destabilize Europe in the long run.

[kimbosbread]

15 minutes ago, Haiduk said:

Today it was claimed Russians have used own new wepon - hybride bomb-missile Grom-E1. This is gliding 500 kg bomb, integrated in the hull of new Kh-38 missile.

What kind of guidance are they using? All of the sudden they can hit targets precisely?

[L0ckAndL0ad]

Pretty intense, wallshaking bavovna after 0000. Massive and long. No sirens/alerts, no shelters opened. Informational vacuum in the dark of the night. Seems to be happening all over the place.

Here's to low CEP errors and reliable hardware. 

[Battlefront.com]

1 hour ago, L0ckAndL0ad said:

I've deleted my twitter account some months ago (and don't regret it), but I've unrolled it via another site and yeah, in my opinion that's accurate information. Just like with inserting and supplying Girkin and his buddies (Babai, Bezler etc) in the east (I still remember seeing a photo of that first truck fully loaded with RPGs "magically" appearing, and their first AKs on photos near administrative buildings), Russia was responsible for all sorts of events like that one. Odessa was just another point where they've created tension via various means. They've been doing stuff like that for a while, and for a lot of countries. Their special services are behind all kinds of really nasty stuff.

heh... I remember that exact picture of the truck full up to the top of the buckboard sides, crate after crate of neatly stacked RPGs.  This truck was magically "captured" after a successful run of Ukrainian armor through various roadblocks and villages with just enough "separatists" to beat up/murder/torture anybody who got in their way.  Similar timing with the "sewing machines" (AA guns) that showed up after Ukraine's Airforce started conducting successful strikes.  And of course it got more and more absurd with each passing day, like an entire 2S9 battalion with consistent tactical markings all lined up for field inspection.

But before that, there was all the confirmed "crisis actors" documented on film and pictures.  IIRC there was a single woman that was in something like 6 different wildly dispersed areas talking about how she, as a local to each place, was being raped and beaten up by Ukrainian soldiers.

1 hour ago, L0ckAndL0ad said:

ps: There's a lot of burning grass today in Crimea. 

6 minutes ago, L0ckAndL0ad said:

Pretty intense, wallshaking bavovna after 0000. Massive and long. No sirens/alerts, no shelters opened. Informational vacuum in the dark of the night. Seems to be happening all over the place.

Seems grass fires behave differently in Crimea than around where I live.

6 minutes ago, L0ckAndL0ad said:

Here's to low CEP errors and reliable hardware. 

Thankfully, your area is being targeted by accurate weapons by people not aiming to harm civilians. 

I hope your windows hold out.

Steve

[Harmon Rabb]

MAKS 23 is quickly becoming one of my favorite people to follow on Twitter. Great kid.

[FancyCat]

This sort of Crimea campaign is pretty impressive, I know asymmetry in land and air has been discussed, do we suppose the sea has some major rethinking to occur? Especially in locations like the straits of Taiwan or Singapore or Persian Gulf. Tho, I wonder how much of Russia's performance is due to shoddy Naval upkeep and training.

[Kinophile]

Speaking of Crimea 

Yah @Harmon Rabb maks23 is good 

 

[Kraft]

Russian soldier in a difficult situation, but he's got his Cooking Pan and Baking Tray ballistic protection on.

A revolutionary first in this war as far as Im aware. 

For the full, action and explosion packed video: t.me/karymat/3844

(Not sure how to embedd these videos)

Edited September 20, 2023 by Kraft

[Battlefront.com]

5 minutes ago, Kraft said:

A Russian soldier in a difficult situation, but atleast he's got his Cooking Pan and Baking Tray ballistic protection on, a first in this war as far as Im aware. 

For the full, action and explosion packed video: t.me/karymat/3844

Well, apparently Russia is sending its cooks into combat.  Now we have proof!

Speaking of that, getting back to the "plea" video that was just posted.  It is interesting that the mortar unit was getting issued defective ammo and then got nothing so they ordered them to the front.  I last remember seeing this when LDPR 122mm gun units ran out of ammo last year (summer?).  So nothing new, but definitely a sign that at least there's local supply issues and Russian command is thinking short term.

Steve

[kimbosbread]

So if Russia is locally running out of various artillery ammo, and will just get rid of trained crews cause yolo… how are they supposed to sustain this for that much longer?

Is this just a desparate game of musical chairs where Putin and MOD hope to outlast the West’s will?

[Fenris]

Just posted (pretty blurry and hard to see what's really going on)

Quote

Notable development. After weeks of mostly small-scale dismounted infantry assaults, it looks like Ukraine's 82nd Air Assault Brigade is assaulting with armor again towards Verbove past the anti-tank obstacle line with Strykers, Marders, and MaxxPro MRAPs.

 

Edited September 20, 2023 by Fenris

[Beleg85]

4 hours ago, Harmon Rabb said:

Hopefully Ukraine and Poland work it out. So far the Ukrainian-Polish relationship during this war has been nothing short of incredible.

Nope- it's rosy version of reality. While common people are generally still super friendly to each other, a lot of political tensions exist, usually hidden under the carpet and covered with smile forced by difficult situation Ukraine is in. Whatever one thinks about complicated grain issue (Morawiecki is to blame for anomalies in early stages of grain access, but on other hand we cannot allow agroligarchs like Akhmetov to completelly destroy our agriculture), it's extremely undiplomatic Zelensky put Central Europe, also Slovakia, Romania and several others, in one line with Russia on the floor of UN. Reception of his words here is like painful cold shower even for most pro-UA activists. It will cost Ukrainian soldiers private donations and subsequently will damage their war effort. But hey, we saw they don't care that much anyway on example of this prevalent nazi symbolic; so it's their call in the end.

Situation should get a little better in November after elections, depending on their outcome.* It is likely PiS will be forced to create a government with far right (called Konfederacja), then I am afraid Ukraine will pay dearly for it. Hopefully they won't win, though, and it will all end on PiS pretending they are very indignant now to channel people's anger and then chill out later.

* Campaign and doemstic political culture became so toxic last months that one can only start to see medieval trials by combat as very elegant and civilized solution to political debates. A pitty we cannot reintroduce them.

Going back to war: https://www.sightmagazine.com.au/news/32266-russian-attacks-kill-nine-in-ukraine-lviv-warehouses-set-ablaze-officials.

Lately Russian missile destroyed, among others, warhouse in Lviv. It is too early to tell, but some speculated that given that it was filled with winter clothes, generators and Caritas humanitarian help, we may wtiness very early attempts of another muscovite winter strikes campaign. Did anybody saw estimates as to Russian curent missile capabilities?

Edited September 20, 2023 by Beleg85

[dan/california]

13 minutes ago, Beleg85 said:

 

* Campaign and political culture became so toxic last months I start to see medieval trials by combat as very elegant and civilized solution to political debates. A pitty we cannot reintroduce them.

Everyone feels that way about their own country's politics. At least Musk and Zuckerberg are doing their part to revive the practice. 

[Joe982]

2 hours ago, kimbosbread said:

What kind of guidance are they using? All of the sudden they can hit targets precisely?

They have hit 1,300 schools precisely.

[Harmon Rabb]

1 hour ago, Beleg85 said:

Nope- it's rosy version of reality. While common people are generally still super friendly to each other, a lot of political tensions exist, usually hidden under the carpet and covered with smile forced by difficult situation Ukraine is in. Whatever one thinks about complicated grain issue (Morawiecki is to blame for anomalies in early stages of grain access, but on other hand we cannot allow agroligarchs like Akhmetov to completelly destroy our agriculture), it's extremely undiplomatic Zelensky put Central Europe, also Slovakia, Romania and several others, in one line with Russia on the floor of UN. Reception of his words here is like painful cold shower even for most pro-UA activists. It will cost Ukrainian soldiers private donations and subsequently will damage their war effort. But hey, we saw they don't care that much anyway on example of this prevalent nazi symbolic; so it's their call in the end.

Situation should get a little better in November after elections, depending on their outcome.* It is likely PiS will be forced to create a government with far right (called Konfederacja), then I am afraid Ukraine will pay dearly for it. Hopefully they won't win, though, and it will all end on PiS pretending they are very indignant now to channel people's anger and then chill out later.

* Campaign and doemstic political culture became so toxic last months that one can only start to see medieval trials by combat as very elegant and civilized solution to political debates. A pitty we cannot reintroduce them.

Going back to war: https://www.sightmagazine.com.au/news/32266-russian-attacks-kill-nine-in-ukraine-lviv-warehouses-set-ablaze-officials.

Lately Russian missile destroyed, among others, warhouse in Lviv. It is too early to tell, but some speculated that given that it was filled with winter clothes, generators and Caritas humanitarian help, we may wtiness very early attempts of another muscovite winter strikes campaign. Did anybody saw estimates as to Russian curent missile capabilities?

Thanks for the details.

I would like to think that maintaining unity would be more important than any trade dispute during a war as brutal as this. Then again I'm not a European farmer. My grandfather had a farm so I think I can understand how important this issue is to both Polish and Ukrainian farmers.

Here's hoping the situation gets a little better this November.

[Vanir Ausf B]

Poland to stop supplying weapons to Ukraine over grain row

Weapons from other nations can still transit through Poland.

[dan/california]

 

Quote

 

https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-september-20-2023

A Russian milblogger also accused the Russian military command of ordering Russian troops to recapture Andriivka (10km southwest of Bakhmut) and the surrounding area without setting proper conditions for such counterattacks.[10] The milblogger claimed that the Russian military command was planning “weak” counterattacks and failed to provide accurate intelligence to Russian assault units. The milblogger observed that Russian forces also lack artillery support, while “hysterical” counterattacks are depleting Russian resources and reserves. The milblogger also claimed that Russian defenses on the adjacent heights in the Andriivka area had collapsed, and it is likely that the Russian military command’s efforts to regain lost positions are preventing Russian forces from preparing new defensive positions on Bakhmut’s southern flank.

 

If this has any bearing on reality? Either the Russians find a couple of new semi-competent brigades to plug this hole with, or they are going to get flanked right out of Bakmuht.

[JonS]

There must be some way to blame Scholz for this?

[dan/california]

11 minutes ago, Vanir Ausf B said:

Poland to stop supplying weapons to Ukraine over grain row

Weapons from other nations can still transit through Poland.

This. is getting a wee bit out of hand. How much would it cost the EU to just pay the bleeping farmers? I don't even really care which farmers. Or we coulds have given the Ukrainians ATACMS last month,and there might be a black sea fleet to left to blockade anything. As. is the last big strike did a ton of damage. Twenty ATACMS at the same time, with a much faster targeting cycle would have sunk most of what was in port.

[Battlefront.com]

55 minutes ago, dan/california said:

 

If this has any bearing on reality? Either the Russians find a couple of new semi-competent brigades to plug this hole with, or they are going to get flanked right out of Bakmuht.

To me, this is the time and place to introduce a new brigade into the fight.  As Haiduk mentioned, the 3rd Assault Brigade (in particular) has been on the offensive for something like 4 months solid.  They need a break and Russia is hoping to repeat Svatove and Kreminna where the Ukrainian forces were just on the cusp of another major push but couldn't manage the strength to do it.

With progress being made in the south, it is more important than ever to kick the crap out of the Bakhmut area.  Russia can not afford to have this sector blow open and that means it will have to make tough choices.  Probably another mass mobilization which, it is obvious, Russia doesn't want to do.

The investment in Bakhmut needn't be very large.  A full brigade should be enough to allow the existing units in the south to get some much needed rest.  Couple of weeks and those guys will be back in action as they won't want to miss out on taking major ground.

If all goes well in the south I should think Russia will, short term, deplete the forces north of Bakhmut and in the city itself.  So much so that I would bet the existing forces in the Soledar area could make some real progress without major investment.

Collapsing the Bakhmut front seems feasible if it is prioritized.

Steve

[Battlefront.com]

1 hour ago, Vanir Ausf B said:

Poland to stop supplying weapons to Ukraine over grain row

Weapons from other nations can still transit through Poland.

This is what we Americans call an "unforced error" by Ukraine generally and Zelensky specifically.  For all the brilliance of how Zelensky and his government has handled themselves thus far, going after its staunchest allies to try and force them to do something that is clearly viewed negatively by the people in those countries, is extremely poor judgement.

I hope that Zelensky learns a lesson from this that biting any of the hands that feeds it might get other hands to be withdrawn.  These things have a way of spreading by like minded political movements that say "see what happened to Poland?  Elect us and we'll make sure it doesn't happen here".

Unfortunately, our predictions made here back in the Spring are unfolding as we had not wanted them to.  The slow offensive, as necessary and overall successful as it may be, is giving the Russian aligned political movements more reasons to excuse withdrawing/limiting support for Ukraine.  2024 will likely be the end of aid flooding into Ukraine.  Hopefully what remains will be enough to keep the war going on its terms.

ATACMS in Ukraine's hands in and of itself won't change the equation, but along with some other actions it could help slow the gains being made but Russian aligned interests.

Steve

[dan/california]

49 minutes ago, Battlefront.com said:

2 hours ago, Vanir Ausf B said:

 

This is what we Americans call an "unforced error" by Ukraine generally and Zelensky specifically. 

You can only console the children, wives and mothers of so many dead soldiers before you start to get stressed. Obviously the timing was poor.

[Carolus]

 

Hopefully the tensions between Ukraine and Poland can be resolved quickly. But the fact that countries like Hungary and Poland like to willy-nilly break EU law constantly never spoke for their reliability in international affairs. 

Luckily other countries seem to slowly gain momentum. The last German aid package is a nice fat "American size". Over 100.000 shells for 155mm, unmanned vehicles of different sorts and demining equipment. Hopefully it's not an aberration but a sign of things to come.

Also, while the German far right and far left are deeply entangled with Russia, they are very unlikely to get any government positions on the federal level, and for the moment German conservatives are criticizing the government for too little military aid (tbf they will say that whatever the government does, but notably they are not on the "stop sending our taxes" train).

Edited September 21, 2023 by Carolus

[L0ckAndL0ad]

6 hours ago, Battlefront.com said:

Thankfully, your area is being targeted by accurate weapons by people not aiming to harm civilians. 

I hope your windows hold out.

True, and I really do appreciate it.

The drones, however, are flying over the city (one went pretty much overhead), and stray missiles and bullets (30mm with failed airburst fuzes) tend to hit whatever is in their way.

The midnight strikes went for almost two hours, I think. The most intensive air raid so far IMO.