How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?

[Letter from Prague]

On reddit, people claimed that the answer to "why ATACMS now" is not political, but it's because the deliveries of PrSM (the ATACMS replacement with twice the range and presumably bigger boom) are now underway, so US doesn't need ATACMS anymore.

What would be a good way to confirm that?

[Haiduk]

17 minutes ago, akd said:

Yikes

 

Longer version

https://twitter.com/NOELreports/status/1700513523682406879

[Haiduk]

On 9/6/2023 at 1:21 AM, Centurian52 said:

A BTR-70 is still better than an M113.

I'm playing Combat Mission: Cold War right now, and I think I've built out something of a hierarchy for infantry carriers. Any other IFV is better than a BMP-1. Any IFV, BMP-1 included, is better than any APC. Anything with an enclosed turret, BTRs included, is better than an M113. Anything with armor and room for dismounts, M113 included, is better than nothing.

No. Each UKR soldier will tell you, that BTR-70 is a piece of sh...t in comarison with M-113/YPR-765

BTR-60/70/80 have too weak side hull armor, which can't maintain proper protection from 7.62 and often against 5.45 AP from close range, when M113 protects. Inner compartment of BTRs is too narrow for soldiers in modern equipment and body armor, because both and BTR and BMP series were designed in ColdWar era, when soldiers haven't such equipment and in design was put an avarage height of Soviet soldier in 1960-1970 as about 160-165 sm, this is one more answer, why RUS and UKR soldiers ride on the top of armor. Not only because if it hit, all will burn alive (it's enough exaggregation if it not 125 mm HE), but because of full squad of troops will waste value time, trying to disembark from narrow compartment under fire. So, UKR soldiers always ride inside M113 to enemy positions, because it much safer, and disembark time is much shorter, than from inside BTR-70

Enclosed turret of BTRs doesn't give enough protection, but instead strict natural LOS of gunner. M113/HMMMWV guneer can better to observe battlefield, when he gets targeting from comamnder or spot the target himself. 

One guy from "Azov" NG brigade wrote brigade try to get at least several dozens of M113 and he amazed, why it so hard. Even 3rd assault briagade "Azov", using M113/YPR, as he told indeed have very small of them and all M113, which you can see in their videos are the same several APC. 

Edited September 9, 2023 by Haiduk

[poesel]

15 minutes ago, Haiduk said:

Longer version

https://twitter.com/NOELreports/status/1700513523682406879

I wonder when we will see flamethrowers. Or is there a silent agreement on both sides not to use them?

[Haiduk]

20 minutes ago, poesel said:

I wonder when we will see flamethrowers. Or is there a silent agreement on both sides not to use them?

RPO-A and thermobaric grenades substitute them.

Soldier-flamethrower of 704th CBRN regiment, attached to some mech.infantry unit shoots at Russians in tree-plant with RPO-A near Robotyne

Since Feb 24th in 704th CBRN regiment reportedly was established flamethrowers battalion. Likely they can have captured RPO-A (Ukraine had too short number of them even in 2014) and own design RPV-16 (almost copy of RPO-A, but as soldiers told more worse quality). Maybe this battalion got captured TOS-1A, but it's known only usage of one captured TOS-1A by "Da Vinci wolves" battalion of 67th mech.brigade.

 

 

Edited September 9, 2023 by Haiduk

[Artkin]

13 minutes ago, poesel said:

I wonder when we will see flamethrowers. Or is there a silent agreement on both sides not to use them?

Or gun mounted flashlights

[billbindc]

36 minutes ago, Letter from Prague said:

On reddit, people claimed that the answer to "why ATACMS now" is not political, but it's because the deliveries of PrSM (the ATACMS replacement with twice the range and presumably bigger boom) are now underway, so US doesn't need ATACMS anymore.

What would be a good way to confirm that?

My understanding is that higher production doesn't begin until 2025 (for Lockheed anyway).

[kevinkin]

14 hours ago, Battlefront.com said:

And as I said above, the nature of UGVs means there's less need for all kinds of support personnel.  Think of vehicle recovery.  How many personnel does it take to transport a single M88 into theater?  How many to keep it ready for use?  How many to effectively use it in the field?  And how many soldiers are involved doing the same with tracked vehicle transporters?  By contrast, a single pickup truck with a trailer crewed by two soldiers can deploy an entire platoon's worth of UGVs and recover any number of damaged/immobilized vehicles with the same exactly steup (plus a recovery UGV).

Does this not make combat more digestible to those in power because civilians will be at more risk than the soldiers they command and hold them is power? The world will start behaving like inner city Chicago. There is something about making war difficult and not easier that is rational. The way to make it difficult on potential enemies is too out pace them with innovation and smother their ability to steal your ideas. Cheap trucks with armed trailers are scary since the ability to deploy them is outside the any control. If I try to sue a contractor with good reason, they could blow my house away in anger. Anarchy. This has to be avoided.

Edited September 9, 2023 by kevinkin

[dan/california]

https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/ukraine-the-latest/id1612424182?i=1000627283842

Interview with David Petraeus. A couple of weeks old, but a deep and sober assessment of the situation. He says the Ukrainians are not done yet.

[Haiduk]

Rare footage of tank vs. tank fight. Reportedly this is June - the beginning of UKR offensive. One Leopard 2 against two Russian tanks. Distance 1500+ m. After Russian tank was hit and damaged, both Russian tanks rolled back. 

UKR Leo likely used HE shell. But maybe ERA on Russian tank saved the vehicle from penetration

 

Edited September 9, 2023 by Haiduk

[holoween]

23 minutes ago, Haiduk said:

Rare footage of tank vs. tank fight. Reportedly this is June - the beginning of UKR offensive. One Leopard 2 against two Russian tanks. Distance 1500+ m. After Russian tank was hit and damaged, both Russian tanks rolled back. 

UKR Leo likely used HE shell. But maybe ERA on Russian tank saved the vehicle from penetration

 

If i had to bet id say HEAT shell hit ERA and failed to pen.

[Haiduk]

20 minutes ago, holoween said:

If i had to bet id say HEAT shell hit ERA and failed to pen.

Leo2 as I know, doesn't use "pure" HEAT, but DM12 MPAT (in our classification fragmental-HEAT)

Also it can use DM11 HE shell, and there were evidences of their supply to Ukraine: https://sundries.com.ua/zsu-pochaly-zastosovuvaty-snariady-dm11-z-prohramovanym-pidryvom-video/

 

[kevinkin]

https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/world/xi-jinping-is-done-with-the-established-world-order/ar-AA1gtcNM

Perhaps an indication that we are in WW3. Or at least a proxy war with China. So we buy their stuff at Target and Walmart and they send there stuff to Russia to keep them afloat. What an avoidable mess. 

The effort to build a rival bloc comes at a time when Xi appears to be distancing himself from the West. He and his top cadres welcomed four senior U.S. officials to Beijing in less than three months; the latest was Commerce Secretary Gina Raimondo, who dropped by in late August. But Beijing has not reciprocated by dispatching anyone to Washington during this period. The suggestion may well be that Xi is open to continued engagement with the United States only if the United States does the engaging. Now Xi won’t be at the G20 for even a handshake with President Joe Biden, let alone any more substantive discussion.

 

Edited September 9, 2023 by kevinkin

[Haiduk]

Meanwhile new war on Caucasus is coming.

Probably Azerbaijan will try to take whole territory of Nagornyi Karabakh and esatblish land corridor between Karabakh and Nakhichevan authonomy enclave.

Both Azerbaijanian and Armenian armies move troops to the border. Interesting that Azerbaijanian forces use Z and V symbols, but crossed out.

Also intersting that now Russia on background of cooling of relations with Armenia, will be likely unofficially support Azerbaijan. Armenian authorities, disappointed by reaction of Russia and ODKB alliance on Azerbaijanian offensive in Nagornyi Karabakh, now more and more turn to USA, claim intentions to leave ODKB. But more inetersting likely now Armenia has found new ally - Iran!

 

Iran and Turkey exchanged with sharp statements - Iran warned Turkey Azerbaijan and... Israel agaisnt invasion to Armenia. In own turn Turkey warned Iran that if their forces entere to Azerbaijan, Turkey armed foces will react immediately.

 

[FancyCat]

6 hours ago, Bulletpoint said:

I hope you are right, but I don't think the North Korean ammo deal makes that much of a difference in practice.

At least not if Ukraine is winning the artillery war and knocking out 215 (+19 MLRS) Russian artillery systems a week, like they claimed recently. Soon they won't have many guns left to shoot that NK ammo from.

Lets not forget that North Korea is banned from exporting military items by UN Security Council resolutions, and most likely North Korea will be attaining something in return, which may well be also banned. 

[Letter from Prague]

21 minutes ago, FancyCat said:

most likely North Korea will be attaining something in return, which may well be also banned. 

Yeah, possibly banned by certain non-proliferation treaty.

[dan/california]

What he said, Ukrainians have reached the point where they can stand and fire in whole batteries.

[kevinkin]

59 minutes ago, FancyCat said:

Lets not forget that North Korea is banned from exporting military items by UN Security Council resolutions, and most likely North Korea will be attaining something in return, which may well be also banned. 

Let also remember that the UN is impotent, irrelevant and a dinosaur from the Cold War. 

[Beleg85]

3 hours ago, Haiduk said:

Also intersting that now Russia on background of cooling of relations with Armenia, will be likely unofficially support Azerbaijan. Armenian authorities, disappointed by reaction of Russia and ODKB alliance on Azerbaijanian offensive in Nagornyi Karabakh, now more and more turn to USA, claim intentions to leave ODKB. But more inetersting likely now Armenia has found new ally - Iran!

 

We can imagine it was one of topics in meeting between Erdogan and Putin I guess... yup, Russia will try to meddle like crazy everywhere it can to shake international order, even risking long-term loose of influence over region. It also shows how picky can be Kremlin support; there was a time when help to Armenians ring authentic bells of sympathy in some parts of Russian society ( namely  intellectual traditions in RU view Armenians as "depositaries" of real Orthodoxy or "older brothers in Christ" of sort). If they really choose to ditch them now and swap alignments, it means Putin is desparate.

Violence int the region between informal blocks of Turkey/Azeri/Russia vs. Armenia/Iran with shadowy US support would be one of strangest off-shots of muscovite debacle in Ukraine.

 

Interesting, tanks from museums were reportedly in better conditions than those from depots:

https://www.forbes.com/sites/davidaxe/2023/09/08/to-train-ukrainian-troops-the-danish-military-had-to-borrow-leopard-1-tanks-from-three-museums/?sh=7616f9d045e2

Edited September 9, 2023 by Beleg85

[Simcoe]

2 hours ago, dan/california said:

What he said, Ukrainians have reached the point where they can stand and fire in whole batteries.

Probably not across the entire battlefield but I'm sure there are certain areas where Ukraine has gained artillery dominance.

One thing I've been curious about. I've been seeing a ton of footage of HIMARS hitting basic artillery pieces and SPG's. 

Does this mean there aren't any more high value targets left or large enough to be economical(command posts, supply depots)? Does Ukrainian artillery have a hard time seizing artillery dominance without HIMARS? Do they sense a breakthrough and refocus their attention toward counterbattery?

[Letter from Prague]

57 minutes ago, Simcoe said:

Probably not across the entire battlefield but I'm sure there are certain areas where Ukraine has gained artillery dominance.

One thing I've been curious about. I've been seeing a ton of footage of HIMARS hitting basic artillery pieces and SPG's. 

Does this mean there aren't any more high value targets left or large enough to be economical(command posts, supply depots)? Does Ukrainian artillery have a hard time seizing artillery dominance without HIMARS? Do they sense a breakthrough and refocus their attention toward counterbattery?

Last time we talked about it, the hypothesis was that high value targets get Storm Shadow now (and hopefully ATACMS soon), releasing HIMARS for more routine targets.

[Fenris]

Reports of Storm Shadow strikes have dried up over the past weeks making me wonder if UKR have exhausted their supply. Hopefully only for the time being.  Makes sense though to use them when they have them and free up HIMARS for other things.

In the absence of either side having air superiority and with the heavy reliance on infantry, artillery has proven to be a very effective weapon in this conflict.  If UKR can both degrade RU's ability to use their artillery and gain dominance I think it's well worth it - lack of ammunition is great but if you don't have the weapons to use the ammunition, even better.

Also, there was something the other day talking about RuAF getting better at distributing/hiding/protecting the higher value assets and targets from long range strikes, it's a few pages back I think.

Edited September 9, 2023 by Fenris

[dan/california]

5 hours ago, Haiduk said:

Meanwhile new war on Caucasus is coming.

Probably Azerbaijan will try to take whole territory of Nagornyi Karabakh and esatblish land corridor between Karabakh and Nakhichevan authonomy enclave.

Both Azerbaijanian and Armenian armies move troops to the border. Interesting that Azerbaijanian forces use Z and V symbols, but crossed out.

Also intersting that now Russia on background of cooling of relations with Armenia, will be likely unofficially support Azerbaijan. Armenian authorities, disappointed by reaction of Russia and ODKB alliance on Azerbaijanian offensive in Nagornyi Karabakh, now more and more turn to USA, claim intentions to leave ODKB. But more inetersting likely now Armenia has found new ally - Iran!

 

Iran and Turkey exchanged with sharp statements - Iran warned Turkey Azerbaijan and... Israel agaisnt invasion to Armenia. In own turn Turkey warned Iran that if their forces entere to Azerbaijan, Turkey armed foces will react immediately.

 

Well, the Central Asian melt down is suddenly kicking off with a bang.

[Halmbarte]

8 hours ago, Haiduk said:

No. Each UKR soldier will tell you, that BTR-70 is a piece of sh...t in comarison with M-113/YPR-765

BTR-60/70/80 have too weak side hull armor, which can't maintain proper protection from 7.62 and often against 5.45 AP from close range, when M113 protects. Inner compartment of BTRs is too narrow for soldiers in modern equipment and body armor, because both and BTR and BMP series were designed in ColdWar era, when soldiers haven't such equipment and in design was put an avarage height of Soviet soldier in 1960-1970 as about 160-165 sm, this is one more answer, why RUS and UKR soldiers ride on the top of armor. Not only because if it hit, all will burn alive (it's enough exaggregation if it not 125 mm HE), but because of full squad of troops will waste value time, trying to disembark from narrow compartment under fire. So, UKR soldiers always ride inside M113 to enemy positions, because it much safer, and disembark time is much shorter, than from inside BTR-70

Enclosed turret of BTRs doesn't give enough protection, but instead strict natural LOS of gunner. M113/HMMMWV guneer can better to observe battlefield, when he gets targeting from comamnder or spot the target himself. 

One guy from "Azov" NG brigade wrote brigade try to get at least several dozens of M113 and he amazed, why it so hard. Even 3rd assault briagade "Azov", using M113/YPR, as he told indeed have very small of them and all M113, which you can see in their videos are the same several APC. 

I thought the M113 was better because more guys can sleep on the open ramp and stay off the ground...

Realistically, the BTRs & M113 are both about as viable in a high threat environment as a yellow school bus. The armor is better than nothing but if you're depending on the armor to save you something has gone seriously wrong with the plan. 

Now, would I rather ride in a APC across 500m of ground that's covered by MGs & artillery or would I rather run, yeah, I'll ride any day. 

H

[kevinkin]

2 hours ago, Fenris said:

Reports of Storm Shadow strikes have dried up over the past weeks making me wonder if UKR have exhausted their supply. Hopefully only for the time being.  Makes sense though to use them when they have them and free up HIMARS for other things.

This aligns well with the west titrating support to Ukraine to avoid escalation and not really wanting to defeat Russia. Only time will tell if that view is correct. But at least voters should know what the end result would look like while not giving away state secrets. US leadership can't put two sentences together. John Kirby might be the only grown up in DC now. He is professional and making a name for himself.