How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?

[Tux]

So, in the last few months it seems to be the case that Ukraine have:

1. Successfully countered/neutralised the attack helicopter threat which caused some worrying tactical issues in the early stages of the offensive.
2. Improved their air defenses to the point where it seems like few Russian drone/missile attacks ever actually get through to hit their targets.
3. Apparently resolved a potential artillery ammunition shortage by receiving/using DPICM where necessary.
4. Developed a significant additional threat to ocean-going and coastal vessels/infrastructure almost entirely through the use of unmanned surface drones.
5. Developed a long-range drone/missile threat that now routinely hits targets deep inside Russia.
6. Established occasional small-scale attacks on facilities in Crimea as basically routine.
7. Apparently broken through the Russian forward line in the south, with Western consensus seeming to be that further progress should now be relatively easy to achieve.

While, in the last few months, it seems to be the case that Russia have:

1. Tweaked the age limits on existing conscription law, apparently in an attempt to scrape together a few thousand more men without further annoying the populace.
2. Wallowed in internal mafia-politics, eventually resulting in the probable assassination of the Wagner leadership and subsequent apparent efforts to dissolve the rest of the group.

So, first of all, is there anything significant that I have missed out from or got wrong about the above lists?

If not, what do we make of the fact there seem to be no real signs of serious concern or panic coming from the Russian leadership?  Where is the frantic lashing out and searching for solutions that you might expect of a military that appears to be heading towards at least an operational collapse?

Is it:

1. We are lacking in the information needed due to fog of war and/or biases in the information we have access to.
2. The Russians are incapable of developing at the same pace as the Ukrainians for practical, cultural or economic reasons.
3. The Russians do not actually perceive any serious threat posed by this summer's offensive, to the point that they are happy to sit in their trenches, confident that they will see it through.

Assuming for argument's sake it is not actually #3, what do we expect to see from the Russian leadership in the next few weeks as a response to the worsening military situation?  I cannot imagine that the Ukrainians will break through additional lines of defence and begin moving into places like Tokmak without the Russian government trying pretty damned hard to manage that situation both militarily and publicly.

[Ales Dvorak]

On 9/3/2023 at 1:21 PM, poesel said:

and a nice joke:

https://twitter.com/DefMon3/status/1698259322755580209

Rama made a joke saying who the Western Balkan states should be waiting to attack to quickly join Ukraine.

"I'm saying okay, who should attack who in this panel, to get quick membership with Ukraine. Bulgaria can easily attack North Macedonia, Croatia can easily attack Serbia, Serbia can easily attack Kosovo, Bosnia-Herzegovina can attack itself if it wants without problem. If we ask our Greek friends to do us a favor, they would attack us in Albania without a problem. Montenegro can pretend to be dead at sea. In this way, we would all be ready to join the train with Ukraine", said Rama, causing laughter in the audience.

[Bearstronaut]

50 minutes ago, photon said:

So, I've been thinking about mines and weather. How do pressure triggered mines react to mud? Physics wise, it seems like being in mud would make them harder to trigger? And do mines float in mud? When the weather turns, are there doing to be millions of mines sunk a meter into the ground come winter? What happens then? Presumably a mine detonation with a meter of earth between you and the mine is better than a detonation without?

Wet weather moves mines. Probably less so  in Ukraine than in places with significant elevation changes (Korea). There is a place I used to go hiking in Korea where the trails got swept a couple of times a year by ROKA engineers because it was near an old minefield and they wanted to make sure hikers didn’t get blown up by mines moved there by the monsoons. The picture is me about ten years ago on that trail.

 

Edited September 4, 2023 by Bearstronaut

[chris talpas]

Would the mines also tend to get pushed to the surface during freeze thaw cycles similar to how farmers fields grow rocks?

[LongLeftFlank]

43 minutes ago, Bearstronaut said:

 

"A Elbereth! Gilthoniel!"

Edited September 4, 2023 by LongLeftFlank

[Joe982]

1 hour ago, photon said:

So, I've been thinking about mines and weather. 

The Ukranians would have already studied this. They have the answer. And this is their second autumn at war.

[The_Capt]

1 hour ago, Tux said:

If not, what do we make of the fact there seem to be no real signs of serious concern or panic coming from the Russian leadership?  Where is the frantic lashing out and searching for solutions that you might expect of a military that appears to be heading towards at least an operational collapse?

It’s Chernobyl - no one is going to deliver bad news to the boss, who just blew a plane load of opponents out of the sky, so they try to ignore it.  The human mind is fantastic at rationalization and that is what we are likely seeing here.  There was no mass panic last Fall (correct me if I am wrong), it was written off as an “operational adjustment” of the lines.  There wasn’t even a panic the previous spring when the entire Northern front collapsed.  This is not likely stolid Russian steel will, it is simply denial.

My sense is Russian forces could be dog paddling in the Azov Sea and Russian senior military and political leadership would frame it as a “reverse amphibious assault” to draw the UA into a trap.  This is not good news in reality because it is signalling that Russia is not negotiating with its own defeat.  There appears to simply be no outcome in their reality where they do not win.  This really means there will likely need to be a complete collapse of the current political power system for this war to end - of course many were saying this already.  The tricky part is quickly inserting a new political system into place to replace the old one before things unravel.  It has happened before in the 90s, although was pretty dicey at times.  

[The_Capt]

2 hours ago, photon said:

So, I've been thinking about mines and weather. How do pressure triggered mines react to mud? Physics wise, it seems like being in mud would make them harder to trigger? And do mines float in mud? When the weather turns, are there doing to be millions of mines sunk a meter into the ground come winter? What happens then? Presumably a mine detonation with a meter of earth between you and the mine is better than a detonation without?

Really depends.  Most AT mines need around 100kg of pressure to detonate.  So mud could soften the ground and make that a bit harder.  But Tanks and AFVs weigh tons so I would not bet the farm on doing doughnut drag circles in a middle of a minefield because it gets muddy.  In fact it could complicate breaching operations for both mechanical and explosive systems.  Solutions to minefields are the same as they always were:

- breach the minefield

- kill all the enemy covering the minefield

- breakout 

Those first two seem to be the problem here as it looks like one has to spend a lot more time on the second before you can do the first.

[Tenses]

5 minutes ago, The_Capt said:

It’s Chernobyl - no one is going to deliver bad news to the boss, who just blew a plane load of opponents out of the sky, so they try to ignore it.  The human mind is fantastic at rationalization and that is what we are likely seeing here.  There was no mass panic last Fall (correct me if I am wrong), it was written off as an “operational adjustment” of the lines.  There wasn’t even a panic the previous spring when the entire Northern front collapsed.  This is not likely stolid Russian steel will, it is simply denial.

My sense is Russian forces could be dog paddling in the Azov Sea and Russian senior military and political leadership would frame it as a “reverse amphibious assault” to draw the UA into a trap.  This is not good news in reality because it is signalling that Russia is not negotiating with its own defeat.  There appears to simply be no outcome in their reality where they do not win.  This really means there will likely need to be a complete collapse of the current political power system for this war to end - of course many were saying this already.  The tricky part is quickly inserting a new political system into place to replace the old one before things unravel.  It has happened before in the 90s, although was pretty dicey at times.  

This.

If Russia will be pushed out of the Ukraine pre-2014 borders, they will act just like on casual day, when some village had to be abandoned. There will be absolutely no change of mind or second thoughts. Wonderland will exist until serious internal collapse will happen. Small ones, like recent coup, are just noise in general flow of things. 

[cesmonkey]

4 hours ago, hcrof said:

Excellent article as always from RUSI:

https://rusi.org/explore-our-research/publications/special-resources/stormbreak-fighting-through-russian-defences-ukraines-2023-offensive

 

Gives a detailed after action report and recommendations for how to improve western training efforts for Ukraine. 

Silly me, I just realized the that the text on that page is the executive summary. If you download the PDF there is a lot of good info including detailed maps and analysis. The length of the PDF is 25 pages.

[billbindc]

36 minutes ago, The_Capt said:

It’s Chernobyl - no one is going to deliver bad news to the boss, who just blew a plane load of opponents out of the sky, so they try to ignore it.  The human mind is fantastic at rationalization and that is what we are likely seeing here.  There was no mass panic last Fall (correct me if I am wrong), it was written off as an “operational adjustment” of the lines.  There wasn’t even a panic the previous spring when the entire Northern front collapsed.  This is not likely stolid Russian steel will, it is simply denial.

My sense is Russian forces could be dog paddling in the Azov Sea and Russian senior military and political leadership would frame it as a “reverse amphibious assault” to draw the UA into a trap.  This is not good news in reality because it is signalling that Russia is not negotiating with its own defeat.  There appears to simply be no outcome in their reality where they do not win.  This really means there will likely need to be a complete collapse of the current political power system for this war to end - of course many were saying this already.  The tricky part is quickly inserting a new political system into place to replace the old one before things unravel.  It has happened before in the 90s, although was pretty dicey at times.  

Edward Luttvak was yattering on about this topic over the weekend and taking exactly the wrong conclusion...which he claimed to be that since Russia was convinced it couldn't lose then it wouldn't. There *is* a mismatch between the sides in that Ukraine and the West are making reasonable cost/benefit analyses of the situation (even when we disagree with them) while Russia isn't really doing cost/benefit analysis at all. And the idea falls apart when you look at what it would look like if Russia "won". It would still be a high sanctioned pariah state with heavily armed neighbors watching it like a hawk, a permanent externally supported insurgency and a resource extraction economy reliant on an entirely cynical dictatorship that covets Russian territory in Far East.

Where folks like Luttvak (who for the moment let's pretend isn't just being a controversialist/opportunist/clown) don't understand is that Russian intransigence and/or inability face reality is simply a function of time and resources. Russia has been steadily losing this fight since about 6 weeks after it began. It's *already* had an almost successful coup attempt designed to reverse the trend. A third to a half of Russian war related industries are understaffed because more than a million younger Russians would rather try to eke it out in Tbilisi than serve in the war. Conscription has already been enacted multiple times because average Russians don't want to fight this war. The ruble is once again losing traction and reserves are going in the wrong direction. 

So while it's tempting to say "the Russian's won't quit", there is every indication that they *are* quitting the war...and losing...already.

[LongLeftFlank]

33 minutes ago, billbindc said:

Edward Luttvak was yattering on about this topic over the weekend and taking exactly the wrong conclusion...which he claimed to be that since Russia was convinced it couldn't lose then it wouldn't. There *is* a mismatch between the sides in that Ukraine and the West are making reasonable cost/benefit analyses of the situation (even when we disagree with them) while Russia isn't really doing cost/benefit analysis at all. And the idea falls apart when you look at what it would look like if Russia "won". It would still be a high sanctioned pariah state with heavily armed neighbors watching it like a hawk, a permanent externally supported insurgency and a resource extraction economy reliant on an entirely cynical dictatorship that covets Russian territory in Far East.

Where folks like Luttvak (who for the moment let's pretend isn't just being a controversialist/opportunist/clown) don't understand is that Russian intransigence and/or inability face reality is simply a function of time and resources. Russia has been steadily losing this fight since about 6 weeks after it began. It's *already* had an almost successful coup attempt designed to reverse the trend. A third to a half of Russian war related industries are understaffed because more than a million younger Russians would rather try to eke it out in Tbilisi than serve in the war. Conscription has already been enacted multiple times because average Russians don't want to fight this war. The ruble is once again losing traction and reserves are going in the wrong direction. 

So while it's tempting to say "the Russian's won't quit", there is every indication that they *are* quitting the war...and losing...already.

Lol, I was going to wind you up (again) by posting his latest tweets (he's still pushing the idea of this Russian -- now Wagner -- "outta nowhere" right hook through the Pripet marshes to sever the Uke supply lines at Lviv!), but abstained.

But I tell you, the man is great fun at parties.

[dan/california]

7 hours ago, Bulletpoint said:

Once the cluster munitions have been provided, they will also be used in areas where the Russians have not planted mines. Villages, orchards, rear areas, artillery positions, etc.

Officially, there is a promise that they will note and log all areas they hit with these things, but experience from Iraq shows that doesn't happen in practice.

You can look at all this and say "Ok, but they still need these weapons because they absolutely need to win the war", and that's a perfectly fine argument.

Just don't say that the article is based on misconceptions, because it does address both of those points (already existing massive Russian minefields and cluster use, as wel as lack of conventional shells) towards the end.

The article is not based on the opinion of some random journalist with soft liberal sensitivities, but on interviews with actual US combat veterans.

 

7 hours ago, JonS said:

That's true almost by definition, since the Russians are not going to he in the middle of their own minefields. Anyone who thought otherwise is deeply deluding themselves.

But it all comes down to what is the other choice? Letting the current lines freeze into  a much less stable DMZ, while Russia rearms frantically? Should they take two or three times their already high casualties to literally dig the Russians out with their bare hands? All of the discussion of DPICM acts like there is some sort of immaculate option that doesn't involve the Russians squatting on 20% of Ukraine forever like a literal orcish horde. Ukraines choices are shoot every round of DPICM they can get their hands on, convince the U.S. Air Force to join this war, or lose. I m still waiting for somebody to explain another option.

I am in no way underestimating the issue of the eventual clean up, but it really is a matter of degree instead of some sort entirely new issue. The Russians have fired every round of Soviet DPICM they had in inventory with dud rates that beggar the imagination. They have mined thousands of square miles , literally. Ukraine is simply going to have to get infinitely better at de-mining than anyone has ever been before. This would be true if Ukraine never fired one round of DPICM themselves. The people who wrote the times article are still stuck in the mental framework of twenty years of counter insurgency, where the most dangerous thing on the battlefield was our own mistakes. The War In Ukraine simply couldn't be more different. 

Edited September 4, 2023 by dan/california

[danfrodo]

6 hours ago, Teufel said:

More surrenders along the contact line, this time in Klishchiivka. Which serves as update of what’s going on in Bakhmut direction.

This is my great hope.  Holes open up in RU line and maybe the command doesn't even know for a few hours.  No communication so sends a couple guys to check it out and they go silent.  Finally, hours later he learns the position is filled w UKR troops.

[danfrodo]

2 hours ago, The_Capt said:

 There was no mass panic last Fall (correct me if I am wrong), it was written off as an “operational adjustment” of the lines.

exactly what I was thinking, you beat me to it.  Putler will just move the goalposts like he's done the entire war.  If they lost landbridge west of tokmak-melitopol line, for example, they'd just say doesn't matter because the real prize is Mariupol or some other nonsense.  

I hope that Putler is getting overly optimistic view.  Like Hitler, seeing on map regiments moved to block the enemy and believing these are actually regiments, meaning fully staffed & equipped and supplied.

 

[danfrodo]

6 hours ago, Teufel said:

Last one as this is turning into spamming of thread but very good point about the structure of the Russian defensive lines.

spamming?  How is posting something on-subject and interesting spamming?  Was good post.

[Carolus]

I think the perspective is really new for many of us (and people in general).

Most people here on the forum have read historical accounts or research about wars, and thus we enjoyed the hindsight perspective.

We read that X retreated from Y in the year so and so, but usually we don't know what that meant in detail from day to day or hour to hour for the involved units (unless someone really dug into the research).

Here we actually see hour to hour updates. It's a train wreck in slow motion. You can infer certain things, liek that it will never reach the station in time, buy who knows what it looks like when the dust settles.

[kimbosbread]

30 minutes ago, dan/california said:

Ukraines choices are shoot every round of DPICM they can get their hands on, convince the U.S. Air Force to join this war, or lose. I m still waiting for somebody to explain another option.

This is correct: Ukraine negotiating while they still have military advantage is losing, when faced with an irrational enemy like Russia.

However, "winning" is way less straightforward. Kick Russia out is not enough, they need to be defanged otherwise there's a serious risk of another war in a decade. Likewise, if the FSB faction holds on, we might see a Best Russia case (pariah/client state of China). Or we have Russia collapse, or a less ****ty government comes in and then we have dolchstoss etc. Is there a less ****ty scenario I'm missing?

I understand the argument that a collapsing Russia is very dangerous, but I fail to see how Best Russia is not equally bad or worse. Moreover, Russia without ethnic minorities to bully and murder and conscript is not capable of waging the only kind of war it knows. Finally, Russia has managed to sow exceptional discord in the western world (as always, based on some underlying truths, but amplifying them)- removing that will be a significant win and make us stronger for the 100 years that lie ahead, where we have some series struggles: Climate change, AI/automation, and the mass ageing of society.

Edited September 4, 2023 by kimbosbread

[kevinkin]

8 hours ago, Battlefront.com said:

Did you really re-read the posts where you attacked me personally after issuing a warning?

That's fine. Got it.

But I would like to know what sentence or two of mine attacked you?  I have never attacked anyone in my entire life. This would be a first. If you are unwilling to point out what ticked you off, we will all have to assume there is truth in whatever was said. It would be informative to everyone to know where you are coming from.

BTW, associating me with a pro-Russian fascist is a typical indirect insult and is more of an attack on me than whatever the Hell I said two weeks ago. 

Edited September 4, 2023 by kevinkin

[billbindc]

1 hour ago, LongLeftFlank said:

Lol, I was going to wind you up (again) by posting his latest tweets (he's still pushing the idea of this Russian -- now Wagner -- "outta nowhere" right hook through the Pripet marshes to sever the Uke supply lines at Lviv!), but abstained.

But I tell you, the man is great fun at parties.

Yeah...Luttvak is one of those guys who vultures off of whatever the latest natsec grift there is and manages to be taken seriously by far too many people who should know better. A Valdai specimen, par excellence.

[kevinkin]

28 minutes ago, kimbosbread said:

This is correct: Ukraine negotiating while they still have military advantage is losing, when faced with an irrational enemy like Russia.

Playing devil's advocate: negotiating while having a military advantage can be a good thing if done right. Assuming Russia is irrational is correct from a western POV sitting in our comfortable armchairs. Today, Genghis Khan would be considered and irrational butcher. But there was a method to his madness. 

[kimbosbread]

29 minutes ago, billbindc said:

Yeah...Luttvak is one of those guys who vultures off of whatever the latest natsec grift there is and manages to be taken seriously by far too many people who should know better. A Valdai specimen, par excellence.

An expert rating site would be good fun- basically track all the online personalities, judge their expertise, sources etc. and give them a ranking from Jesus - HI Sutton - Scott Ritter.

[kimbosbread]

14 minutes ago, kevinkin said:

Playing devil's advocate: negotiating while having a military advantage can be a good thing if done right. Assuming Russia is irrational is correct from a western POV sitting in our comfortable armchairs. Today, Genghis Khan would be considered and irrational butcher. But there was a method to his madness. 

I vehemently disagree.

Based on recent history, Russia will not negotiate in good faith, will renege on agreements and generally is not reliable. That's one top off the whole genocide, kidnapping children, destroying dams, threatening nuclear war, etc.

Could you elaborate on the devil's advocate position? How exactly are we supposed to normalize relations with an FSB-faction government? Nobody in Eastern Europe is going to take this other than anything a giant stab in the back, and I think we can agree it means nuclear proliferation will be entirely dead, not mostly.

[Beleg85]

 

[Maciej Zwolinski]

6 hours ago, chuckdyke said:

He has life insurance?

 

Excellent planning. If they take him in the woods, they won't have to take him to the woods afterwards.