How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?

[Carolus]

9 hours ago, Battlefront.com said:

Second video seems to show a FPV kamikaze slamming into the grouping right at the end.

Steve

This seems to be this exact drone.

Shows there are also more soldiers in the bushes / treeline nearby, on the right side, which explains the amount of ammo targeting that direction.

[dan/california]

 

11 minutes ago, Carolus said:

This seems to be this exact drone.

Shows there are also more soldiers in the bushes / treeline nearby, on the right side, which explains the amount of ammo targeting that direction.

The overall amount of video we are getting from this war is nuts. The number of time we get multiple views of the same action, complete with GPS coordinates, and in many cases contemporaneous accounts from the participants is what ever is after off the charts. 

Also, this batch of Russians drew the shortest of short straws.

[kevinkin]

2 hours ago, JonS said:

Lol. Way to make it all about you. Kill more people, plz, so I avoid imagined humiliation.

Please explain what you mean with a coherent thought or two or maybe three. Sucks, you will not because you can't.

[Kinophile]

10 hours ago, akd said:

HE / DPICM mix seems to be a trend:

 

In that second vid, what is that last munition that lands square on the group of guys? It looks tossed/thrown?

Ah I see

Edited September 4, 2023 by Kinophile

[Offshoot]

16 minutes ago, Kinophile said:

In that second vid, what is that last munition that lands square on the group of guys? It looks tossed/thrown?

At first I thought it was thrown too because it arcs and seems to originate from a guy who is in the right of frame (under the watermark), but if you watch it full screen you can clearly see it is a drone that comes in from the far right of the screen. And Carolus' post above shows the drone's view.

Edited September 4, 2023 by Offshoot

[kevinkin]

1 hour ago, danfrodo said:

KEVINKIN: I am assuming you just used your words poorly in that one phrase.  So hopefully won't feel the need to get into  debate w JonS and thereby derail the thread. 

Just seeking clarification. 

[Kinophile]

Possibly the best side effect of the Wagner mutiny was Surovikin getting arrested and removed from active duty. For all that he is a brutal , child-murdering scumbag since Syria, he was realistic about what was coming v ZSU.

If he was is still in charge during this offensive I suspect the Ukrainians would have had an even tougher time so far and with a lot still ahead of them. As it is, it seems they are on the verge (2 weeks?) of a dangerous breakthrough.

Thanks Priggy. 

Evil is always the source of its own defeat... 

 

[Grossman]

Russian economy to be smaller than Indonesia

https://uk.finance.yahoo.com/news/russias-massive-brain-drain-ravaging-203001178.html

 

[Battlefront.com]

On 9/2/2023 at 12:35 AM, kevinkin said:

But when I read my posts from 2 weeks ago, they were really really harmless.

I have only banned 2 people in the last few months; you and a pro-Russian fascist who got himself permanently banned despite decades of major contributions to CM modding.  Did you really re-read the posts where you attacked me personally after issuing a warning?  Because if you did and saw nothing wrong, I don't hold out much hope for you retaining your posting privileges.

A very long time ago in my nearly 25 years of moderating this Forum I learned moderating duties are best done in public and not PM.  All I can do is point out that it is rare to see people publicly state they have put someone on their Ignore list.  In this thread we rarely have personal confrontations.  You are the only one posting here now that has claim on both of these, which is also why you have been warned 2 times and put on a mandatory 2 week vacation.

If you want to retain posting privileges you need to sort things out as I don't extend 3rd chances to anybody.  There will be no warnings issued the next time I see you derailing this thread and the ban that follows will be permanent.  Maybe it is best if you voluntarily refrain from posting in this particular thread, at least for a while, so you don't put your ability to post elsewhere at risk.

Steve

[Battlefront.com]

2 hours ago, Carolus said:

This seems to be this exact drone.

Shows there are also more soldiers in the bushes / treeline nearby, on the right side, which explains the amount of ammo targeting that direction.

Good find.  Yup, that definitely is the same drone strike seen in the other video.  Interesting impact triggers (I assume that is what they are) seen in this video.  I've not seen anything like that before.

Steve

[Battlefront.com]

8 hours ago, Offshoot said:

Still, it is better than nothing, just how much better we don't know. But it clearly does show that Russia was in no way prepared, or perhaps never even expected, that Ukraine would bring the war to their territory.

I wonder how prepared for this they are, assuming it isn't just psyops:

Ukrainian-made missile able to hit targets 1,500 km inside Russia nearly ready - https://english.nv.ua/nation/ukraine-will-be-able-to-hit-russian-targets-located-1-500-km-away-50350864.html

 

Another aircraft grade aluminum nail in traditional air warfare's coffin.

Back when Ukraine got a hold of HIMARS the obvious way Russia could work around the threat was to move operational and strategic assets to points beyond its range.  It seems to have done a lot of this, but there are practical reasons (discussed here) why it can't.  And even if it did get out of HIMARS range, the introduction of weapons like Storm Shadow pushed the envelope out even further and made it even less practical to keep the area clear of juicy targets.

Ukraine's increased strike ranges have obligated adjustments to Russia's use of air power.  Helicopters, which doctrinally are supposed to be kept close to the front, are now forced to use improvised facilities within strike range.  That option doesn't exist for fixed wing aircraft, especially bombers and large transports.  Now that Ukraine has further increased it's strike range Russia either needs to figure out an effective defense (AD, EW, bunkers, frequent relocations, etc.) of its already marginal ability to use air power will be reduced to about nil.  Either because its aircraft are based too far away to be effective or Ukraine blows them up on the ground.

Drones have certainly made maintaining a traditional airforce (including doctrine) all that much harder to do.

Steve

[cesmonkey]

 

[chuckdyke]

Remember is never took much to outrange the enemy. David used a smooth stone to outrange the heavily outfitted Goliath. 

[Offshoot]

A lightish article on the production of realistic decoys by a Ukrainian company:

‘A psychological weapon’: inside a Ukrainian factory making decoy kit - https://www.theguardian.com/world/2023/sep/04/a-psychological-weapon-inside-a-ukrainian-factory-making-decoy-kit

Quote

 

Metinvest’s main shareholder is Ukraine’s richest man, Rinat Akhmetov, who has backed the decoy project personally, a spokesperson said.

The team is all volunteers, drawn from the payroll before February 2022. This ensures confidence in a group whose project makes them a target. “We have to be able to trust each other, we didn’t just hire people off the streets. We know these guys,” one says.

 

 

[Teufel]

Probably more serious than the stray air defense rocket that fell in Poland many months ago. Questionable if it will have any consequences given no casualties have been reported. Nevertheless, interesting developments if confirmed to be on territory of Romania. If nothing else, lack of response from NATO is also interesting in this.

 

[Teufel]

Early wake up call for Russians in Verbove direction.

Russians acknowledging Ukrainian progress in same direction. Given information yesterday that trenches are filled with Ukrainian soldiers in large numbers. That the now famous hill 166 allegedly is under Ukrainian control starts to show signs of serious strain on Russian defensive lines in this direction. 

Plenty of stuff going up in smoke, don’t add much new but is interesting as geolocations are given at time stamps.

 

Edited September 4, 2023 by Teufel

[Teufel]

As mentioned several times before and discussed as important indicator of declining conditions for Russians. More surrenders along the contact line, this time in Klishchiivka. Which serves as update of what’s going on in Bakhmut direction.

 

[Teufel]

Russians pointing fingers at Western Balkan and Caucasus screaming about terrorism. Some time ago the same Russians bought up plenty of land in the hills and mountains of NATO member Montenegro. Before being ousted and acquired land confiscated by government of Montenegro when plans to build airport for charter flights from Russia surfaced.

Apparently same region is full of terrorists, in NATOs own backyard. Of course the damned Americans are turning the blind eye and Russia must intervene if NATO does not!

 

[Teufel]

Last one as this is turning into spamming of thread but very good point about the structure of the Russian defensive lines. Long post well worth reading in full but two extracted points;

“It started Velyka Novosilka which was culminating in the devastating Russian defeat and costly withdrawal in Urozhaine. Far more dangerous, however, for the Russian war effort are the Ukrainian operations south of Orikhiv. Russians have specifically fortified this area. Especially, Robotyne was vital for the Russian defense sector. It also explains also why Russians continue to counter attack this area, knowing their weakness in the hinterlands.

But this is not even the worst for the Russians. Far worse is that this whole battle has evolved in an open tug-of-war. Both sides know more less the strengths and weaknesses of each other. The open terrain makes sneak attacks and counterattacks virtually impossible. This is only emphasized by the usage of drones. Some might argue that this point might be favorable for Russians but even that Russians squandered long ago. The biggest thinking error many, especially Russians, are making is to make this about trench networks. The trenches are delaying the advance, there is no doubt about that. But the most crucial aspect of this battle is logistics, as always. And here Russians made absolutely decisive mistakes, by not targeting Ukrainians logistic lines in the same way than the other way around.

All and all Russians have completely lost the initiative and only hope that Ukrainians stop their assault. The frantic call of Pro-Russian minions such as Hungary's Orban are a very good sign how much in distress Russia has come. They desperately need and hope that the Ukrainian attack stops, and if they don't then we are not far away from a complete Russian collapse along the southern front.”

Add to the above this analysis in great post from “RO37” of accelerating development that gathered little attention. Seen few posts last couples of days on X about some of it, but great comprehensive summary of what going on.

Domestic and international systems coming online with S400 air defense in Crimea going up in smoke as prominent result.

Well worth reading in full although long post.

https://www.dailykos.com/stories/2023/9/2/2190270/-Ukraine-Update-Ukraine-is-getting-stronger

Edited September 4, 2023 by Teufel

[Bulletpoint]

6 hours ago, dan/california said:

 

Of course the NYT has picked this moment to expound endlessly on the dangers of cluster munitions. They have two interrelated and deeply held misconceptions. The first is that Russia hasn't already mined the front lines on an unimaginable scale. The second is that Ukraine had some mythical better choice that didn't involve the U.S. Air Force joining this war.  

 

Once the cluster munitions have been provided, they will also be used in areas where the Russians have not planted mines. Villages, orchards, rear areas, artillery positions, etc.

Officially, there is a promise that they will note and log all areas they hit with these things, but experience from Iraq shows that doesn't happen in practice.

You can look at all this and say "Ok, but they still need these weapons because they absolutely need to win the war", and that's a perfectly fine argument.

Just don't say that the article is based on misconceptions, because it does address both of those points (already existing massive Russian minefields and cluster use, as wel as lack of conventional shells) towards the end.

The article is not based on the opinion of some random journalist with soft liberal sensitivities, but on interviews with actual US combat veterans.

[JonS]

5 minutes ago, Bulletpoint said:

Once the cluster munitions have been provided, they will also be used in areas where the Russians have not planted mines

That's true almost by definition, since the Russians are not going to he in the middle of their own minefields. Anyone who thought otherwise is deeply deluding themselves.

[hcrof]

Excellent article as always from RUSI:

https://rusi.org/explore-our-research/publications/special-resources/stormbreak-fighting-through-russian-defences-ukraines-2023-offensive

 

Gives a detailed after action report and recommendations for how to improve western training efforts for Ukraine. 

[chuckdyke]

He has life insurance?

 

[Baneman]

1 hour ago, Bulletpoint said:

...

Officially, there is a promise that they will note and log all areas they hit with these things, but experience from Iraq shows that doesn't happen in practice.

.

But remember, it wasn't Iraqi's using them.

I suspect the Ukrainians will be a bit more careful on this, having somewhat greater motivation.

[photon]

So, I've been thinking about mines and weather. How do pressure triggered mines react to mud? Physics wise, it seems like being in mud would make them harder to trigger? And do mines float in mud? When the weather turns, are there doing to be millions of mines sunk a meter into the ground come winter? What happens then? Presumably a mine detonation with a meter of earth between you and the mine is better than a detonation without?