How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?

[Haiduk]

Today's UKR strike on logistic warehouses in Dolomitne settlement, Donetsk oblast (between Bakhmut and Debaltseve), 15-16 km from nearest frontline section.

 

Edited September 1, 2023 by Haiduk

[Haiduk]

Old video. Deleted.

 

Edited September 1, 2023 by Haiduk

[dan/california]

2 minutes ago, Haiduk said:

...Also this night a stand of fuel trucks was struck in Svatove

 

Perhaps the clearest case ever of just NOT learning. To park ~ten fuel trucks to together like at that within 200 km of the front line is just willful stupidity, or actively working for the other side. They have only been a max priority target since the second ay of the war.

 

[Battlefront.com]

9 hours ago, Haiduk said:

On the video more likely not balistic Hrim-2, but some new cruise missile with powder booster, dropping after the launch. I doubt this is upgraded Neptun, because it's need bigger hull to place enough fuel for 700 km of range

I was not clear with my post.  My reaction is that Hrim-2 is "dead" because there is something new that does the same job but without the very big industrial costs.  It will be interesting to see how this new weapon is used and, most importantly, how many Ukraine can produce quickly enough to make a difference this year.

Steve

[Battlefront.com]

6 hours ago, Haiduk said:

I've stopped to read Cooper's analysis more than year ago.

Me too.  Cooper's information gathering skills are questionable and he takes that information and runs with it, far more than the information supports.  So it's a double whammy.  His underlying information isn't accurate and then he stretches his conclusions even further.

Steve

[Haiduk]

4 minutes ago, Battlefront.com said:

I was not clear with my post.  My reaction is that Hrim-2 is "dead" because there is something new that does the same job but without the very big industrial costs.  It will be interesting to see how this new weapon is used and, most importantly, how many Ukraine can produce quickly enough to make a difference this year.

Steve

I can recall the project of cruise missile "Korshun-2" (eng. "Kite"), developing by DB "Pivdenne" and DB "LUCH" after 2010 and presented in 2014. But this project, based on Kh-55 missile then was "burried" - UKR military didn't interest in it. But it range was claimed 280-300 km 

[dan/california]

1 minute ago, Haiduk said:

I can recall the project of cruise missile "Korshun-2" (eng. "Kite"), developing by DB "Pivdenne" and DB "LUCH" after 2010 and presented in 2014. But this project, based on Kh-55 missile then was "burried" - UKR military didn't interest in it. But it range was claimed 280-300 km 

It is entirely possible that a NATO defence contractor was encouraged to help Ukraine get a cruise missile program over the hump. It gives Ukraine a "domestic" long range strike option that takes a lot of pressure off of the politics of things blowing up all over European Russia. 

 

[Battlefront.com]

51 minutes ago, Haiduk said:

...Also this night a stand of fuel trucks was struck in Svatove. Cameraman says, a driver has burned alive to ashes in the second KRAZ (many KRAZ-260 and older models, produced in Ukraine in Soviet time and still in use in Russian army)

 

This is a significant loss!  Not only does it have an immediate effect on the frontline it is servicing, but now these trucks need to be replaced.  For sure it is easier to replace a tanker than a tank, but they still don't grow on trees.

A fuel truck like this is probably about $500k to build new these days (obviously US prices!).  10 trucks destroyed means is $5m in lost capital.  Obviously prices are all relative, but it is probable that the relative cost of Russian replacements is similar to the overall budget it has to work with.

Also, I have no idea what Russia's truck manufacturing capabilities are these days, but here in the US it is much slower than it has been to get something like this made.  The major delays here are coming from a shortage of chassis from the big truck makers.  If you are going to make a dump or a tanker truck, a chassis is kinda a necessary thing.

Steve

[Haiduk]

11 minutes ago, Battlefront.com said:

This is a significant loss!  Not only does it have an immediate effect on the frontline it is servicing, but now these trucks need to be replaced.  For sure it is easier to replace a tanker than a tank, but they still don't grow on trees.

A fuel truck like this is probably about $500k to build new these days (obviously US prices!).  10 trucks destroyed means is $5m in lost capital.  Obviously prices are all relative, but it is probable that the relative cost of Russian replacements is similar to the overall budget it has to work with.

Also, I have no idea what Russia's truck manufacturing capabilities are these days, but here in the US it is much slower than it has been to get something like this made.  The major delays here are coming from a shortage of chassis from the big truck makers.  If you are going to make a dump or a tanker truck, a chassis is kinda a necessary thing.

Steve

9 fuel trucks is about a half of vehicles in fuel supply platoon of brigade's logistic battalon. This is ATs-10-260, carring 10 000 liters of fuel each. But I suppose this is higher level logistic unit, because in brigades/regiments usually have 8000 liters refuelers (at least had 10-15 years ago)   

[mosuri]

Salty Pickle wants to be the president of russia:

https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/jailed-russian-nationalist-girkin-says-hed-be-better-president-than-putin-2023-08-31/

[Battlefront.com]

3 hours ago, Elmar Bijlsma said:

Last couple of days it kinda looks like Ukrainians have an easier time advancing. Which given they just bumped into the Surovikin Line is kinda counter intuitive.

That leaves me with the impression that the Russians degraded their manpower and defensive capacity in front of their main line to a degree that their main line of defence is now largely ineffective. Are we once again very lucky they are so f-ing stupid? Or am I seeing things that aren't there?

I've been thinking along these lines for the last two months or so.  I think they had enough time and resources to invest in a very good forward defenses, but not enough of the combo to do up a proper (by their doctrine) 1st line and even less for the 2nd line.  Add to this traditional difficulties Russia has with corruption and competence, and there's a further reason for things being "half assed".

It seems that Russia has suffered too many artillery losses in the theater and there's nothing to replace them with.  Since Russian defenses are heavily dependent upon artillery, and it's ability to strike from the air quite limited, the fighting units are now largely on their own.

The ground units are, by all accounts, too few in number to adequately man these positions.  There isn't enough to rotate, there isn't enough to replace, there isn't enough to reinforce, and there isn't enough to counter attack.  It can do all of these things to some extent, of course, but each time it does it's weaker than the time before because there manpower is capped by whatever dregs they can get to "volunteer".  They need another 100k in uniform, equipped, and trained to overcome this shortage, and there's no signs of that happening.

Sooooo... they have been fighting hard for the forward positions because they know that their main positions aren't better.  Now that Ukraine is fighting the main positions in a few places, it seems that this is at least confirmed for specific areas.

Steve

 

[Battlefront.com]

3 minutes ago, Haiduk said:

9 fuel trucks is about a half of vehicles in fuel supply platoon of brigade's logistic battalon. This is ATs-10-260, carring 10 000 liters of fuel each. But I suppose this is higher level logistic unit, because in brigades/regiments usually have 8000 liters refuelers (at least had 10-15 years ago)   

Whether it is brigade or above, the impact should be significant.  If it is a brigade's trucks, 50% loss (assuming full strength!) is huge.  If it is a higher level logistics unit, that means any difficult situation faced by a brigade is that much harder to fix.

Steve

[Haiduk]

Russian milblogger clarified significance of IL-76 losses in Pskov, because some military officials and milblogers became to calm Russians, that this attack hadn't any military importance

One board just has returned from repair. On two other were mounted just repaired engines. Because of this the loss of these boards is very unpleasant. Now we can produce 3 IL-76 for year. So, a loss of four ILs this is about 1,5 years of producing. 

MoD still has 119 ILs - this loss is 3,36 % of all ILs fleet and 8 % of commercial IL-76 fleet (from about 50 of operate). The cost of one IL is 5 milliard of Rubles. For one night 20 milliard of Rubles burned down.

We have 42 boards in storage, but unknown how much of them have resourse. 

Edited September 1, 2023 by Haiduk

[Battlefront.com]

6 minutes ago, Haiduk said:

Russian milblogger clarified significance of IL-76 losses in Pskov, because some military officials and milblogers became to calm Russians, that this attack hadn't any military importance

One board just has returned from repair. On two other were mounted just repaired engines. Because of this the loss of these boards is very unpleasant. Now we can produce 3 IL-76 for year. So, a loss of four ILs this is about 1,5 years of producing. 

MoD still has 119 ILs - this loss is 3,36 % of all ILs fleet and 8 % of commercial IL-76 fleet (from about 50 of operate). The cost of one IL is 5 milliard of Rubles. For one night 20 milliard of Rubles burned down.

We have 42 boards in storage, but unknown how much of them have resourse. 

Thanks!  I have been wondering about the impact.  It seems the Wikipedia entry for the IL-76 has reasonably accurate information about Russia's total operational inventory.

Interesting detail that two of the damaged aircraft had just experienced significant, and expensive, overhauls (engines).  Which means those resources are not available for overhauling other aircraft.  That's a double bonus for Ukraine!

Steve

[Haiduk]

 

[Haiduk]

VERY close fight in the forest around Kreminna. UKR troops mop-up Russian position.

https://twitter.com/herooftheday10/status/1697661709442326901

In recent two days Russians could seize one piece of forest, according to Deepstate map. 

Also today was one panic message in Russian TG taht UKR troops eneterd to Dibrova village, but likely this was either PsyOps, or just panic rumors. 

 

[Haiduk]

UKR soldier shows how his body armor saved his life

 

[Haiduk]

Unofficial statictic of UKR AD work for month

Shakheds - 231 launched / 152 shot down (65,8 %)

Kh-101/555 - 87/61 (70,11 %)

Kalibr - 43 / 29 (67,44 %)

Iskander-K - 8 / 1 (12,5 %)

Kinzhal - 7 / 1 (14,29 %)

Kh-22 - 6 / 0

Iskander-M - 12 / 0

Kh-59 4 / 4 (100 %)

Total: 398 / 248 (62,31 %) 

 

PS. Number of shot down Kinzhals can be some bigger, because some monitoring sources calimed 2-3 were shot down, officially AF Command rejected to comment this information. 

 

[Haiduk]

1 hour ago, Battlefront.com said:

This is a significant loss! 

Alas, turned out this is previous year video

[cesmonkey]

This is a pretty interesting listen about the training of Ukrainians "in country" by westerners:
 

 

[FancyCat]

Quote

India’s “splurge on cheap Russian crude” may be over, as Mid-East suppliers step back in with attractive conditions. “Our dependence on Russian oil is going to decrease sharply,” says Oil Minister Hardeep Puri

 

[Jr Buck Private]

Seems like ever since Ukraine received cluster munitions that things have picked up for them.   I heard an analyst say the Ukrainians are even using them to help clear minefields?   I didn't think that was what they were designed for?  Anybody else hear anything along those lines?   I hope it's true.   Seems like the Russian line is cracking.   I think the next few weeks will be very telling in how this campaign season ends up.  

[Centurian52]

1 minute ago, Jr Buck Private said:

Seems like ever since Ukraine received cluster munitions that things have picked up for them.   I heard an analyst say the Ukrainians are even using them to help clear minefields?   I didn't think that was what they were designed for?  Anybody else hear anything along those lines?   I hope it's true.   Seems like the Russian line is cracking.   I think the next few weeks will be very telling in how this campaign season ends up.  

I seriously doubt that cluster munitions are well suited to clearing minefields.

[akd]

BFIST in Ukraine:

 

[Centurian52]

Well, ISW still hasn't updated their map with any recent Ukrainian advances (though it does look like they've improved their visual representation of Russian fortifications). But they were surprisingly prompt with their monthly update to their time-lapse maps!

https://storymaps.arcgis.com/stories/733fe90805894bfc8562d90b106aa895