How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?

[Teufel]

Footage of snipers from Bakhmut direction…

https://www.reddit.com/r/UkraineWarVideoReport/comments/162nn8x/russians_being_hit_from_a_distance_of_160_to_1200

 

 

 

…and those unsexy Engineers in action again.

https://www.reddit.com/r/UkraineWarVideoReport/comments/162npn6/the_mykolaiv_marine_engineers_together_with_their

 

[The_Capt]

10 minutes ago, Teufel said:

…and those unsexy Engineers in action again.

You shut your mouth!  Super sexy…almost too sexy.  All covered in dirt and bad manners.

[Teufel]

13 minutes ago, The_Capt said:

You shut your mouth!  Super sexy…almost too sexy.  All covered in dirt and bad manners.

Haha! See that referenced discussion of engineers actually got home, if not, please do see bashing on “unsexy engineers” earlier in thread.

More of those guys where that came from.

Edited August 27, 2023 by Teufel

[The_Capt]

Just now, Teufel said:

Haha! See that referenced discussion of engineers actually got home, if not see references to bashing on “unsexy engineers” earlier in thread.

This is what happens when I leave you guys unsupervised.  We were moving most of Aug…god I hate moving.

[The_MonkeyKing]

Here interestingly US seems to have been thinking of reaching azov sea as a possibility.

[Vet 0369]

1 hour ago, The_Capt said:

This is what happens when I leave you guys unsupervised.  We were moving most of Aug…god I hate moving.

Hey, moving in any manner is preferable to not moving at all.

[kimbosbread]

2 hours ago, The_Capt said:

You shut your mouth!  Super sexy…almost too sexy.  All covered in dirt and bad manners.

That could be the hit calendar of 2024- UA engineers clearing minefields in the buff, so sexy, it hurts!

[Vet 0369]

4 hours ago, Teufel said:

This adds nothing but confusion, will post for reference anyway, in case there is some sense of this later.

Claimed to be Tokmak, could be anywhere, and story behind could be anything really. If anybody has plausible story to this, please do share.

 

I don’t know yet if anyone else posted this reply to this yet or not, but here goes my take. That “child” looks like a store mannequin to me. The drone, if armed, didn’t attack, so it did its job protecting the crews of the vehicles. Works for me!

[Vet 0369]

Sorry for all the dupes. For some reason it wasn’t reacting when I clicked on the button.

[The_MonkeyKing]

1 hour ago, The_MonkeyKing said:

Here interestingly US seems to have been thinking of reaching azov sea as a possibility.

And here is Ukrainan officer response: https://threadreaderapp.com/thread/1695867428247396359.html

 

And dufman:

 

 

Edited August 28, 2023 by The_MonkeyKing

[JonS]

17 minutes ago, kimbosbread said:

That could be the hit calendar of 2024- UA engineers clearing minefields in the buff, so sexy, it hurts!

[The_MonkeyKing]

5 hours ago, Haiduk said:

Interesting thread about defense fortifications around Novoprokopivka, Solodka Balka, Verbove and possible decisions how to breach them

 

Here is the most interesting map imo:

And threadreader: https://threadreaderapp.com/thread/1695879651158052910.html

[Battlefront.com]

3 hours ago, Teufel said:

Haha! See that referenced discussion of engineers actually got home, if not, please do see bashing on “unsexy engineers” earlier in thread.

More of those guys where that came from.

Please post Reddit stuff as a link and not embedded as Reddit stupidly autoplays their videos.  Really annoying to click on a thread and get a blast of combat sounds from somewhere in the page and have to scroll to find it.  Not your fault, Reddit sucks in that way.

What you do is paste the link and then look down to the bottom of where you type text to post.  Just above the normal paperclip "Drag files here to attach, or choose files..." option on gray background a temporary bunch of text on a blue background appears.  Click on "Display as link instead..." so that only the link is posted and not the embedded video.

Thanks!

Steve

[Battlefront.com]

1 hour ago, Vet 0369 said:

Sorry for all the dupes. For some reason it wasn’t reacting when I clicked on the button.

Fixed that fer yea

Steve

[Battlefront.com]

1 hour ago, The_MonkeyKing said:

And here is Ukrainan officer response: https://threadreaderapp.com/thread/1695867428247396359.html

 

And dufman:

 

 

I had the same exact reaction to the WP comment.  I was wondering if their "source" in the Pentagon was someone working in one of the many boiler or mail rooms, not someone who has a clue about what is going on.  Actually, I'm not being fair.  I think even the lowliest janitor scrapping gum from under the desks in the conference rooms would understand the importance of drones in this war.

I'm going to go with the guess that the journalist misinterpreted something that might sound pretty sensible ifi all the context was provided.

Steve

[Kinophile]

4 hours ago, The_Capt said:

You shut your mouth!  Super sexy…almost too sexy.  All covered in dirt and bad manners.

Don't forget bad breath. 

[The_Capt]

2 hours ago, The_MonkeyKing said:

Here interestingly US seems to have been thinking of reaching azov sea as a possibility.

Like to see what twit suggested “stop using UAS so much”.  Right, much better to send men forward to die while being spotted by the other sides UAS.

[Battlefront.com]

6 hours ago, Haiduk said:

Interesting thread about defense fortifications around Novoprokopivka, Solodka Balka, Verbove and possible decisions how to breach them

 

Thank you for posting this analysis.  This quote is the sort of thing I've been harping about since before the counter offensive started and I've recently stated it again... Russia has a long history of half assing things, so why should we think that the defenses in the south are going to be an exception?:

The main defence line west of Verbove seems to be in a significantly worse state. At the beginning of August, no preparation work for finalizing these trenches had begun. At the end of August, low-resolution images show almost no signs of any trench improvements either.

I've theorized for some time now that one of the reasons Russia has fought so hard to maintain it's forward defenses (in front of the 1st Line, or Zone 1 by some other ways of thinking) is because they didn't have the time and/or resources to make the 1st Line everything it needs to be. 

The way defensive lines are built, historically, is by creating "hedgehog" defenses in critical pieces of terrain.  In particular logistics hubs, choke points (like bridges), and high ground.  After these are established they are expanded towards each other.  If there's enough time and resources, the result is an unbroken line of defense with the most important terrain being particularly tough.  But what happens if the defender lacks time and/or resources to make all those connections between hedgehog positions?  Opportunities for the attacker to bypass and undermine from the rear positions that are otherwise very good.

I am hoping that is what we see happen in this sector over the next couple of weeks.

Steve

[dan/california]

2 hours ago, The_MonkeyKing said:

Here interestingly US seems to have been thinking of reaching azov sea as a possibility.

 

2 hours ago, The_MonkeyKing said:

And here is Ukrainan officer response: https://threadreaderapp.com/thread/1695867428247396359.html

 

And dufman:

 

 

 

18 minutes ago, The_Capt said:

Like to see what twit suggested “stop using UAS so much”.  Right, much better to send men forward to die while being spotted by the other sides UAS.

Quote

 There’s growing backing in Washington for providing rocket-launched cluster munitions, for example, which could strike deeper than the artillery-fired versions the United States began supplying last month.

The above is from the same WaPo article referenced above. The Ukrainians have been begging for these rockets for well over a year. It is my understanding the current U.S. plan for its stocks is to pay a bunch of money to destroy them. The fact that aren't already there by the trainload is a case study in how we could have done better.

The guy calling for more in person reconnaissance needs to be invited to walk across an overgrown wheat field in the dark that has been covered in  whatever the Pentagon uses to simulate those nasty little petal mines. After he sets fifteen or twenty of them off ask him for his revised opinion. If the Pentagon does not have a decent training simulator for them that is its own huge red flag, and might explain said idiotic opinion.

More generally the U.S. keeps asking Ukraine to fight like the U.S. Air Force is fully involved in this war. If Ukraine could drop 500 JDAMS a day, instead of ten, they would be using a lot less artillery.

 

Edited August 28, 2023 by dan/california

[cesmonkey]

2 hours ago, The_MonkeyKing said:

And here is Ukrainan officer response: https://threadreaderapp.com/thread/1695867428247396359.html

 

And dufman:

Putting the argument over ground teams vs. UAS for reconnaissance, what about the question on how Ukraine is using artillery ammunition?  Are the supplied shells being used effectively or wastefully?

 

 

 

[danfrodo]

10 minutes ago, Battlefront.com said:

Thank you for posting this analysis.  This quote is the sort of thing I've been harping about since before the counter offensive started and I've recently stated it again... Russia has a long history of half assing things, so why should we think that the defenses in the south are going to be an exception?:

The main defence line west of Verbove seems to be in a significantly worse state. At the beginning of August, no preparation work for finalizing these trenches had begun. At the end of August, low-resolution images show almost no signs of any trench improvements either.

I've theorized for some time now that one of the reasons Russia has fought so hard to maintain it's forward defenses (in front of the 1st Line, or Zone 1 by some other ways of thinking) is because they didn't have the time and/or resources to make the 1st Line everything it needs to be. 

The way defensive lines are built, historically, is by creating "hedgehog" defenses in critical pieces of terrain.  In particular logistics hubs, choke points (like bridges), and high ground.  After these are established they are expanded towards each other.  If there's enough time and resources, the result is an unbroken line of defense with the most important terrain being particularly tough.  But what happens if the defender lacks time and/or resources to make all those connections between hedgehog positions?  Opportunities for the attacker to bypass and undermine from the rear positions that are otherwise very good.

I am hoping that is what we see happen in this sector over the next couple of weeks.

Steve

I can picture Putler being shown pictures of ditches and thinking it's some amazing defensive works and handing out kudos & promotions & bonuses to the enterprising commander that made it happen.  In some places it's certainly been very real defensive works, but that doesn't mean it's true back there.  Like you said, if those secondary lines are so great why are the reserves being sent in so far forward?  Or, like Elvis says, "if plan B were better than plan A, it would've been plan A".  Plan B in this case is the ditches.

Maybe I'll be proved wrong, but I am thinking those ditches are not as strong as some think they are.  I am also interested in what UKR does if RU throws everything into stopping the Robotyne advance by pulling from other sectors.  Does UKR have the strength to push in some other, weakened sector?

[Sojourner]

1 hour ago, dan/california said:

The guy calling for more in person reconnaissance needs to be invited to walk across the steppe SE of Robotyne.

FIFY

[Fenris]

Post says this is a pair of UKR T series tanks doing shoot and scoot.  One is very nearly hit by return fire at the 1:30 mark.  Thankfully they both appear to bug out successfully.

Posting as a link because all these tweets are flagged as restricted.  There's nothing R18+ in this one.

https://twitter.com/i/status/1695494020015726875

Edited August 28, 2023 by Fenris

[dan/california]

Quote

Russian authorities continue efforts to coerce migrants and foreigners living in Russia to fight in the war in Ukraine in exchange for Russian citizenship. Russian independent media outlet Horizontal Russia 7x7 reported on August 27 that Russian authorities refuse to consider citizenship applications from Tajik and Uzbek migrants in Kaluga Oblast until the migrants sign military service contracts.[68] Several migrants stated that Russian authorities continue to deny their citizenship applications despite the military enlistment office declaring them ineligible for military service.[69] Russian sources reported on August 26 that the Russian State Duma will consider a bill proposing that Russian authorities revoke the acquired citizenship of foreigners who fail to register for military service within two weeks of receiving their Russian passport or otherwise attempt to evade military duty.[70] The bill also proposes that Russian authorities deport foreigners after revoking their citizenship.[71]

Today's ISW up. A lot of it has already been discussed on the board. However, In addition to excellent maps they have, a LOT of detail on which Russian units are where. I posted the other interesting bit above. Russia is all but shanghaiing Central Asian immigrants. It also says a lot about conditions in the Stans that they still HAVE any central Asian migrants.

[Battlefront.com]

ISW's assessment of Russian manpower in the southern region:

The composition of Russian defensive positions in southern Ukraine and the ambiguities about how Russian forces are manning and equipping them continues to obscure how the next phase of fighting will transpire. ISW recently assessed that a lack of observed uncommitted Russian forces in the area may suggest that a subsequent series of Russian defensive positions may be less heavily defended than the positions that Ukrainian forces already penetrated to the north, although this remains unclear.[10] Russian forces have reportedly conducted additional lateral transfers to the Robotyne area with elements of the 76th Guards Air Assault (VDV) Division from the Kreminna area in Luhansk Oblast and are also reportedly redeploying unspecified elements from the Kherson direction to the area.[11] Russian forces committed elements of the 7th VDV Division immediately to combat after laterally transferring them to the Robotyne area in early August, although the Russian command could decide to commit these new reinforcements to strengthen the next series of defensive positions south of the current Ukrainian advance.[12] Russian forces committed a considerable amount of materiel, effort, and manpower to hold the series of defensive positions that Ukrainian forces are currently penetrating, and it is unclear if Russian forces will retain the advantages they have held if they cannot commit the same level of resources and personnel to these next layers of defense.[13] The next Russian defensive layer will, nevertheless, very likely pose significant challenges for the Ukrainian advance.