How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?

[dan/california]

1 minute ago, Battlefront.com said:

Two articles of interest in Politico today:

1.  Germany reneges on its promise to meet NATO 2% GDP defense spending.  Now it appears to be saying that it will do so averaged over 5 years.  I'm a bit sympathetic to the logic, but other nations who meet the 2% threshold do so every year, which means there's no practical reason why Germany can't.

https://www.politico.eu/article/germany-defense-change-of-plan-nato-spending/

2.  Former GOP House staffer is working hard to keep the GOP led House supporting Ukraine.  He's doing so from Ukraine and with the insider knowledge of how the House works an thinks (loose use of that term!):

https://www.politico.com/news/magazine/2023/08/13/ukraine-capitol-hill-steven-moore-00108134

Steve

Germany could simply send any shortfall straight to the Ukrainian MOD, best possible use of the money really.

[kevinkin]

6 minutes ago, Battlefront.com said:

a noticeable quality decline

I agree with this line of discussion except we have to understand Russian might just go over the strategic defensive and cut their losses for a period of time. We can't assume they are not learning from this war and know less about their limitations than the west does. So almost immobile AFVs with conscripts could become valuable in a static warfare situation where they outnumber any attempt to cross a mined battleground. If US intel is funneling actionable information to Ukraine, it certainly has not resulted in significant advances this summer. There is a reason for that. Either US intel is bad, or Russia has enough to counter it. Static attritional warfare is something hard for the west to take. Putin and China could care less. That's the west's weakness and why this thing has to end soon with Ukraine in NATO, having defensible borders and a thriving economy. They will never get their stollen children and lives back. The biggest thing is NATO entry. Preventing this was Russia's purpose of the war in the first place. That would be a strategic win for the west. Russian will be back, but in an inferior position compared to last year. Ukraine will be a military state full with all the downsides that brings. But they have no choice. Living in a geopolitical borderland stinks.       

 

[kevinkin]

3 hours ago, dan/california said:

Because we are still holding desperately to the belief that Putin is rational, competent, and can be reasoned with. If he was any, much less all, of those things he would have  declared victory and gone home in March 2022.

Partly. But the desperation is more about Russia just collapsing and throwing in the towel. It could happen. It would of happened. It should of happened. Could of, would of, and should of, don't win conflicts. Putin is using the west's hate of combat losses and his ugly acceptance of the losses against Ukraine. From his POV it's rational; from ours it's evil. At some point there will nothing left of Ukraine to fight over with the country in tatters and population either dead, shell shocked or living elsewhere. This is Putin's and China's strategy - complacency of the west leaving Ukraine desolate, radiation free and readily occupied. 

Edited August 17, 2023 by kevinkin

[kevinkin]

1 hour ago, kevinkin said:

Don't forget the sad state of the maritime logistics the US has fallen into. I will look into that and report back. 

No numbers, but an interesting look on how it's done overall from last year. Funny that an authoritative state like Russia might know more about US capabilities than we do of theirs's - just from open source.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=l-6worA8siA

 

[Chibot Mk IX]

6 hours ago, Haiduk said:

This morning UKR General Staff oficially claimed units of 35th marines brigade liberated Urozhaine village. It's took more time than expected after Russians abandoned the village, because they defended own lasr positions in several houses in souuthern end of village and conducted two large counter-attacks in order to recapture Urozhaine back. Now Russians pulled back to Zavitne Bazhannia and Staromlynivka. Simultainoulsy, UKR troops started to make recon in force from Urozhaine toward Kermenchyk village - next keypoint of Russian defense in eastern direction.

DeepState TG reported the battle for Urozhaine was hard and as example told about UKR vehicle losses during liberation of Staromajorske and repelling of Russian counter-atatcks on this village - 19 differnent combat vehicles. 

On the video is an episond of 2-3 days ago during the fighting for Urozhaine - UKR tanks conduct "hit&run" attack of Russian positions in the village - UKR tank on full speed approaches to the village, conducting supressive fire with main gun. Russians fires back. On 2:28 something big has exploded - maybe remote controlled IED, which Russians activated too late, when the tank already passed this place.

There is other video of this episode, where UKR drone team, who watch this action cheers on guys in this tank

 

Did the tank commander turn out during the engagement?

[dan/california]

4 hours ago, Battlefront.com said:

Well, putting aside the report's mentioning the T-14 as active in Ukraine, it's the the usual mix of unrealistic Russian claims and Ukrainian/Western worst case estimates.  Nowhere in that article does it discuss the quality problems that are inherent with reviving decades old rusting tanks as replacements for newer tanks that went boom.  There was mention in there about sanctions dodging, but it's not just that.  Reviving 90 tanks a month, to me, doesn't seem plausible at all.  But taking it as if it is, I'd wager it is simply getting the thing running with whatever it had when it was junked.  Even if modern systems were available in quantity, which I also doubt, they would likely take more time to install and ensure worked correctly than what was quoted.

In short... even if we believe that Russia can keep up with losses by filling in with older revived tanks, there will be a noticeable quality decline from what Russia started with.  On top of that, there's the cost and training of new crews to consider as without the ability to support those two things the theoretical tank output is meaningless.

Steve

I guarantee you there parts the Russians are desperately trying to restart production of. I don't know if it is the wheel bearing of the front idler wheel wheel, of the tanks equivalent of a rear main seal, there is a weakest link. There something that time water and rodents have trashed on 99% of them. They probably have an entire prison camp trying fabricate whatever it is by hand with a file.

[dan/california]

Supposedly a long leaked  memo about the state of Russian drone procurement and operations by Dmitri Rogozin, who used to run Roscosmos.

Quote

https://threadreaderapp.com/thread/1691868791473316127.html

S

[dan/california]

 

[Fenris]

7 hours ago, Haiduk said:

Dash camera films UKR HMMWVV crew fight from inside. Three fighters dismount themeselves, driver, commnder and gunner still in vehicle. At the end Humvee was struck or blew by mine, but all three could abandon it.

 

 

Long version of the above.  The tank supporting them backs onto a mine and a twitter post says his HUMVEE was hit by RU artillery.  YT thinks it's russian so subs aren't great.

Edit - this is the same footage as the post above and has interviews, background and drone images to give overall the picture.

Quote

Re-upload for my western audience from Butusov Plus YouTube channel. this is the assault from the day I lost my 3rd hmmwv.

A heavy assault together with the fighters of the 59th brigade: the Humvee in which I was riding with the fighters blew up, the tank that supported us blew up, Russian artillery covered us on a minefield, but the assault groups of the 59th brigade regrouped and went on the assault again, destroyed the resistance and shot down a Russian FPV drone and took one of the important Russian positions at the crossroads of landings that allows us to move forward. In the second part, we will show the captured Russian position and dropped weapons. This is how the heavy steps of the Ukrainian infantry, which so hard liberated another large field and two landings from the enemy, look like from inside the battle.

 

 

Edited August 17, 2023 by Fenris

[Battlefront.com]

1 hour ago, dan/california said:

Supposedly a long leaked  memo about the state of Russian drone procurement and operations by Dmitri Rogozin, who used to run Roscosmos.

Anybody watching Russian drone and ATGM videos can see this for themselves.  The quality of those expensive systems is awful.  Obviously it is made worse by the images often being "2nd hand" (i.e. recorded using a monitor and a cellphone), but so are many Ukrainian videos.  The Ukrainian ones you can still make out extreme details, for Russian ones you're lucky if you can identify a blob as a vehicle.

In this sense Ukraine had, and reportedly still has, an advantage because it is using mostly COTS and Western supplied stuff that is all superior to Russian MoD junk they started the war with.  Russia was able to switch to COTS for some things, though apparently not as effectively as Ukraine.  The higher level MoD stuff is much slower to change due to the complexity.

Steve

[Maciej Zwolinski]

8 hours ago, Battlefront.com said:

In short... even if we believe that Russia can keep up with losses by filling in with older revived tanks, there will be a noticeable quality decline from what Russia started with.  On top of that, there's the cost and training of new crews to consider as without the ability to support those two things the theoretical tank output is meaningless.

Steve

And the more tanks Russian take out of storage/manufacture/otherwise procure, the more they have to pay, even to restore the old crap to the working conditions. According to the latest video from the Inside Russia channel, the financial troubles have finally come to Russia, and a huge component of that is the costs charged by the military industry. Apparently by August the Russians already burned through their military budget for the entire year 2023 and had to increase it by 100%.

So Russians increasing military production is not entirely a bad thing.

 

 

[acrashb]

3 hours ago, Maciej Zwolinski said:

According to the latest video from the Inside Russia channel, the financial troubles have finally come to Russia, and a huge component of that is the costs charged by the military industry.

The Economist agrees.  Of course, one needs to read instead of watch:

https://www.economist.com/finance-and-economics/2023/08/14/russia-will-struggle-to-cope-with-a-sinking-rouble

[Beleg85]

The Ukrainians are trying to use "something" like this by sappers (in the rear) who are clearing the fields of mines. Supposedly quite effective when undetected and stepped on mines such as the PFM-1, which contain only 40g of explosive, but you can lose a leg if you step on it.

 

[pintere]

1 hour ago, Beleg85 said:

The Ukrainians are trying to use "something" like this by sappers (in the rear) who are clearing the fields of mines. Supposedly quite effective when undetected and stepped on mines such as the PFM-1, which contain only 40g of explosive, but you can lose a leg if you step on it.

 

That looks scary af. What about anti-personnel mines that have a larger explosive charge? Also, wouldn’t stepping on a mine with that thing potentially startle someone, causing them to lose their balance and fall *** first into the minefield?

These are at least the things I think about after seeing that.

[cesmonkey]

Several Russian telegrammers mention that Ukraine is trying hard to push in the Rabotino/Tokmak direction today.

Here is WarGonzo's:
https://t.me/wargonzo/14409

Quote

The situation in the Rabotino area at 11:00 Moscow time️

From the field they report that the battle does not stop and the pressure of the Armed Forces of Ukraine only intensifies. The enemy returned to the original tactics, with which the counteroffensive in this sector began. Massive artillery strikes disassemble the positions of our fighters, leaving them no other option but to roll back to the next line. According to one of the sources, more than a thousand shells fly into the settlement every day.

Cassettes, phosphorus, and shrapnel are used - everything that the Armed Forces of Ukraine have on this sector of the front.
And if our fighters cope with enemy tanks and other armored vehicles perfectly, then there are problems with counter-battery combat and this has long been no secret to anyone.

As mentioned above, the offensive began with a similar artillery preparation, when forty packets of Grad fell into one forest belt, after which the enemy brought infantry and armored vehicles into battle. And given that many sources report the introduction of new Ukrainian reserves in this direction, we can expect another attempt to break through our defense line, followed by access to Tokmok.

But despite the huge losses and colossal efforts made by the Ukrainians near Rabotino, there is no breakthrough of the defense line. The heroic actions of our fighters continue to hamper the enemy’s offensive, forcing him to switch from blitzkrieg tactics to a “creeping” offensive, in which hundreds of meters become the most effective advance.

Mashovets writes that the Russians are deploying more regiments to this sector to shore up its defenses but doing so will likely make other sectors of the defensive line more vulnerable.

[kevinkin]

https://www.militarytimes.com/flashpoints/ukraine/2023/08/16/russia-hits-ukrainian-grain-depots-again/?utm_campaign=dfn-ebb&utm_medium=email&utm_source=sailthru&SToverlay=2002c2d9-c344-4bbb-8610-e5794efcfa7d

Crimes against humanity are widespread or systemic criminal acts which are committed by or on behalf of a de facto authority, usually by or on behalf of a state, that grossly violate human rights.

[dan/california]

Maybe just maybe the Russians are running a little short of stuff and bodies...

[Battlefront.com]

56 minutes ago, cesmonkey said:

Several Russian telegrammers mention that Ukraine is trying hard to push in the Rabotino/Tokmak direction today.

Here is WarGonzo's:
https://t.me/wargonzo/14409

Mashovets writes that the Russians are deploying more regiments to this sector to shore up its defenses but doing so will likely make other sectors of the defensive line more vulnerable.

Ah, so nice to read about the brave exploits of Russia's glorious defenders!    It hurts my head to think that this sort of drivel is accepted as fact by so many when it is so obviously poop painted a pretty color.

The fact that Russia wants to defend the outer belt of defenses to this extent tells me that they don't have much confidence in defending the next line any better.  Probably also some combination of a Stalin like moronic override of sound military decision making in favor of "no inch of soil lost to the enemy" commandment from Putin and/or someone trying to keep his job.

We're now seeing here, and elsewhere, that Russia's reserves are all used up.  If something new appears in Location A, something goes missing from Location B.  It also is very apparent that the Russian ground forces are now, more than ever, a loose collection of battalions with very little that amounts to a traditional chain of command.  Given the low quality level and lack of coordinating arms of these units it probably doesn't matter at this point.

This reality of Russian units is an opportunity for Ukraine that it hasn't (yet) been able to exploit.  For the most part Ukraine is conducting, in CM terms, a whole bunch of tactical Quick Battles where it boils down to who can do better on the patch of battlefield simulated.  Artillery and some other factors, such as ISR, come into play... but it really is more about whose tanks and infantry manage to get the better of the other side's.

What Ukraine needs to do a lot more of is operating one or two levels up in terms of how forces are used.  Feints, hitting unexpectedly in new places, tactical withdrawals designed to trap forces, etc. take coordination of units well outside of the battalion level.  Russia doesn't seem able to operate at this level, but theoretically Ukraine should.  On the recent visit by Kofman and others it was pointed out that Ukraine is lacking the ability (confidence?) to do this sort of operational level warfare.

Steve

[kevinkin]

18 minutes ago, Battlefront.com said:

(confidence?)

Good point. The battlefield is so deadly that it takes a lot of guts to move out of cover. And when the troops are asked to do so they need to have the confidence there is a plan in place to support/cover the move and the right systems to do so. That type support might not be available everywhere all the time. 

[dan/california]

31 minutes ago, Battlefront.com said:

Ah, so nice to read about the brave exploits of Russia's glorious defenders!    It hurts my head to think that this sort of drivel is accepted as fact by so many when it is so obviously poop painted a pretty color.

The fact that Russia wants to defend the outer belt of defenses to this extent tells me that they don't have much confidence in defending the next line any better.  Probably also some combination of a Stalin like moronic override of sound military decision making in favor of "no inch of soil lost to the enemy" commandment from Putin and/or someone trying to keep his job.

We're now seeing here, and elsewhere, that Russia's reserves are all used up.  If something new appears in Location A, something goes missing from Location B.  It also is very apparent that the Russian ground forces are now, more than ever, a loose collection of battalions with very little that amounts to a traditional chain of command.  Given the low quality level and lack of coordinating arms of these units it probably doesn't matter at this point.

This reality of Russian units is an opportunity for Ukraine that it hasn't (yet) been able to exploit.  For the most part Ukraine is conducting, in CM terms, a whole bunch of tactical Quick Battles where it boils down to who can do better on the patch of battlefield simulated.  Artillery and some other factors, such as ISR, come into play... but it really is more about whose tanks and infantry manage to get the better of the other side's.

What Ukraine needs to do a lot more of is operating one or two levels up in terms of how forces are used.  Feints, hitting unexpectedly in new places, tactical withdrawals designed to trap forces, etc. take coordination of units well outside of the battalion level.  Russia doesn't seem able to operate at this level, but theoretically Ukraine should.  On the recent visit by Kofman and others it was pointed out that Ukraine is lacking the ability (confidence?) to do this sort of operational level warfare.

Steve

I think you are perhaps underweighting the artillery battle. Ukraine finally seems to be winning it, whether DPICM is really better or they just have enough shells. If that trend holds I suspect the rest of the Ukrainian forces will suddenly start performing vastly better as commanders are willing to risk more concentration of forces, and persistence of those concentrations. Until now the counter offensive has borne an enormous resemblance to the fighting in Normandy before the breakout. Hopefully it will progress to similar breakout as well.

 

Edited August 17, 2023 by dan/california

[Artkin]

1 hour ago, Battlefront.com said:

a Stalin like moronic override of sound military decision making in favor of "no inch of soil lost to the enemy" commandment

To be fair at this point the Soviets were driven back hundreds of miles. The Germans were nearly to the Don and were very close to severing the last remaining rail line to the caucuses

[kevinkin]

https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/world/inside-the-russian-effort-to-build-6000-attack-drones-with-iran-s-help/ar-AA1fo979

Looks like a good target for clandestine NATO enable UA spec ops strike.

Long and detailed article.

A detailed inventory, based on data provided to the Russians by Tehran, shows that over 90 percent of the drone system’s computer chips and electrical components are manufactured in the West, primarily in the United States. Only four of the 130 electronic components needed to build the drone are made in Russia, according to the document.

It's difficult, but this crap has to stop. If multi use parts can't be removed from the chain then beef up Ukraine's air defense big time. 

Not a big fan of RAND. But I just want to think ahead and did a search on "rebuilding Ukraine":

https://www.rand.org/pubs/research_reports/RRA2200-1.html

Food for thought. 

Edited August 17, 2023 by kevinkin

[DesertFox]

3 hours ago, cesmonkey said:

Several Russian telegrammers mention that Ukraine is trying hard to push in the Rabotino/Tokmak direction today.

Here is WarGonzo's:
https://t.me/wargonzo/14409

Mashovets writes that the Russians are deploying more regiments to this sector to shore up its defenses but doing so will likely make other sectors of the defensive line more vulnerable.

That´s good news. Because that move will demilitarize even more Orcs.

[DesertFox]

Peter Caddick-Adams thoughts on Ukraine war so far. Well worth reading IMHO.

Just as in June 1944, the most we will be permitted to know of an attack is that President Zelensky has launched a counter-offensive. Whether it is the counter-offensive, we will only find out afterwards. Meanwhile, his army must “Keep Calm and Carry On”.

Schrödinger’s summer offensive | Peter Caddick–Adams | The Critic Magazine

[kevinkin]

1 hour ago, dan/california said:

as commanders are willing to risk more concentration of forces, and persistence of those concentrations.

I always have to remind it's the concentration of firepower not manpower. It's too dangerous to concentrate manpower like in past conflicts. The tactics are very tricky. But once mastered, they can make a big difference and differentiate the UA from the RA. And keep the good guys alive. Even back in the Cold War: 

Commanders mass fires on the battlefield by rapidly positioning weapon systems for concentrated fires on lucrative enemy
targets.

Humans have to be involved, but the key its to keep your guys a lot safer than the enemies. Concentrate manpower only when you sense fait accompli and need to occupy new ground. Then spread out again.