How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?

[Vet 0369]

18 hours ago, kevinkin said:

Same as Seals. Why would Seals operate in mountainous terrain? It comes down to marketing and drawing young people toward a specific service regardless of the name of the service in some instances. In a country the size of the US, we will find those that just want the challenge to be a Seal, a marine, a fighter pilot, a tank leader. It almost makes you think why do all these services exist in the first place given there is so much overlap? Tradition I suppose. Each service is its own kingdom. I like it that way as long as they fight as a well oiled team. 

“In the Beginning,” the Continental Army was basically created when Washington took command of the Massachusetts Militia on June 14, 1775, after the fiasco of Breed’s Hill (misnamed Bunker Hill). At that time, the Militia had enough powder and ball to fight a 3-minute fixed battle with the Regulars in Boston.

the Continental Marines were created on November 10, 1775, were modeled on the Royal Marines, and created as “Soldiers of the Sea” primarily to act as snipers in the rigging, to provide defense for landing parties, and to prevent mutiny on the ship.  The Continental Army at Boston didn’t get any additional ammunition until the Continental Marines took the fort on New Providence Island in January 1776.

During, and after the Civil War, in addition to sniping and landing party work, manned the ship guns which created the rank of Gunnery Sergeant.

After the positive publicity on the performance of Marines in WWI, and particularly their Pacific successes in WWII, the Army actively began politicking to combine the Marine Corps into Army to get a larger share to the reduced funding. At the same time, the newly spun off U.S. Air Force tried to get the U.S.Navy aircraft carrier program cancelled by claiming that their strategic bombers with the Atomic Bomb made the carriers obsolete. It almost happened, but than God it didn’t because when North Korea invaded and rolled up the U.S and South Korean Armies all the way down to Pusan due to TO&E blunders and outdated thinking by the U.S.Army brass, the only thing that prevented collapse of the Pusan Perimeter was the Navy’s ability to deliver supplies, equipment, and most importantly, the U.S. Marine Rapid Deployment Force AND the Navy and Marine Close Combat air support that they had honed to a Razor’s edge during WWII.

Even after the debacle of the Korean Conflict, the Army and Air Force continually try to cut the funding, and absorb the Marine Corps into the Army.

All four services serve uniquely different functions and missions, but the antics of the Army brass and former Army Air Corps have done nothing but create  dissension and trouble for more than a Century. 

End of rant.

Edited August 12, 2023 by Vet 0369
Spelling

[cesmonkey]

Russian telegrammer:
https://t.me/RVvoenkor/51160
 

Quote

“The enemy outplayed us - we are losing Harvest”
The soldiers of the Vostok battalion report a difficult situation on the Vremevsky ledge at the junction of Zaporozhye and the DPR.
➨"The enemy outplayed us - we are losing the crop. For several days we withstood its onslaught, but somewhere there was a failure. We are still fighting back, but the situation is not in our favor. ➨ The enemy today already tried to hoist the flag
at the village council, but one armor was blown up ➨ And although the
capture of this village will cost the enemy a great price, its loss after such heroic resistance is painful for us.
➨ It does not console, but slightly reconciles with the situation, that if he takes each village in the same way as Harvest, it will end soon. We hope that we will somehow dodge and push the enemy back - but you have to be realistic."
t.me/RVvoenkor

 

[buena]

2 hours ago, Splinty said:

I didn't fight for the abstract concept of nationhood. But I DID choose to join the military (US Army) as a career. Because I love my friends and family, and being a soldier was my best way to serve THEM. When it actually came to war, I fought for the folks on my left and right. Nationhood sounds good as a thing to fight for, but there are very few people who actually do that.

All the power to you for doing what you thought was right but it doesn't change the fact that some people profited from it very handsomely

[buena]

7 hours ago, Haiduk said:

If somebody wants to search black cat in dark room, especially if realy no cat in this room, this is his right. For Eastern European countries, military aspect in their cultures always played important role in upbringing. I think, not a last role in "phenomenon" of fierce Ukrainian resistance played "military culture" memory with an attitude "I have an obligation to be defender of my land", different youth scout and paramilitary organisations, upbringing low-level leaders. Alas, contemporary western culture with it's negative aspects like "life for enjoying and consumption", globalization moods "Nations don't exist, I'm citizen of Universe", leftism, libertarianism etc significantly undermined nation readiness to fight. Now in Ukrainian society more and more we are hearing voices (and this is not only Russian PsyOps): "Why I have to go at the war! Only professionals must to go! I was born to enjoy a life, not to die on minefields! They havn't a right to force me to fight! This is violation of my human rights! If Russians come I will defend my family - we just relocate them to other country, but you closed borders for men, violating my basic human rights to choose a safe place for life!"

When about week ago was published a photos of daughter of marine, fallen in 2020 - three years ago, where she was 10 y.o with a portray of his father and today's photo, where she is 13 y.o with sniper rifle as a cadete of military college, huge number of "snowflakes" and "human right defenders" started to faint "OMG! Little girl with a weapon! It's unacceptable!" Maybe this is a reason why in EU so low level of people, who ready to fight with a wepon for their countries. If education system try to upbrings kids as "snowflakes in rose unicorn kingdom", keeping them from "unwanted stresses, violence, militarism, hard situations" etc. then even usual mountain trip with a tent without a bed and toilet turned out for many of them in dangerous challenge, not speaking of to readiness to engage with a war reality. 

So, I'm for "golden mean clever militarism" in youth upbringing. This is a question of nation health and future stability of countries.
https://brilliantmaps.com/europe-fight-war/

  

I wouldn't fight for my country if it was a  military dictatorship for example and at war with a democratic country.  In fact, I'd more likely fight against my country in order to return it to a democracy.

[Pete Wenman]

Eliot Higgins Retweeted

Ukrainians advance 16-20 kilometers in 'tactically significant' move. Ukraine made a "tactically significant" advance along two lines of attack towards the southern coast, according to the Russian and Ukrainian sources.

 

 

[Yet]

3 hours ago, Haiduk said:

Reportedly no damages on the bridge, a movement has been opened again. Russians claimed UKR used converted S-200 SAM misisles for attack. Number of used missiles is unknown - locals write about 4,6 and even 11 explosions.

I wonder, why Storm Shadow arn't used? Either Kerch bridge is "restricted" target for them in order to "not escalate" 

or... the storm shadows were identified by RU AD and primarily downed.

or... Ukr didnt throw in Storm Shadow yet for tactical reasons

or... Ukr doest have the possibility to send birds in the sky (so close to the front) to deploy Storm Shadow

or

or

...

[Beleg85]

4 hours ago, Butschi said:

That is what I was trying to explain with my story. Almost every country on this planet is the result of what some nobleman or other similar despot was able to take by force and was able to hold on to. A few hundred years ago, nobody cared about that. You ploughed your field and to which fiefdom you belonged had little meaning. Only with the birth of nation states were people deceived into believing these "lines on a map" had actual value by telling us it was about tradition and culture and all that.

If this line on a map is the border between civilization and tyranny, as in your case, that border has a meaning. But because of that not because of any construct called "nation". People, culture and tradition on this side of the German/Dutch border aren't much different than people on the other side. On the other hand, Swabians are an entirely different lot than people in Hamburg.

Not entirely agree- only if because citizenship, republicanism and nation is much older and has roots in Antiquity. I don't think Athenians at Salamina, nor Carthaginians cramped inside its city walls just before the fall thought in your terms (they didn't have that luxury in first place); nor the Romans for whom for centuries dying with weapons in hand as part of militia for sake of own country was very natural business, both commoners and senators alike.

While I concur for many of your thougths (especially about unification of Germany by militaristic Prussia specifically as tragedy for both Europe and Germany), history of large human polities simply cannot be limited to this very narrow, post-modern understanding of nation and state as external constructs made by some nobles. Modern nation is simply category of human collective identity in the era of fast communication and better governence. Nationalism is kidnapping of that idea, in turn.

5 hours ago, Haiduk said:

Fight for "democracy and rights" only away from fight for own country is a way of atomisation of society. Bright example is a PLC of 17th century, were nobility fought only for own "rights", but not for country and in result this finished with crash of the state. 

I get what you mean, but worth to note that nobles of the era did understood the idea of fighting for a country and land very well, and quite some of them perished with weapons too; all historians agree, that joining army in that time you had 90% chances of loosing something, being it health or property. And yet, there was almost never shortage of noble volunteers in XVI-XVII cent. PLC armies. It's just that country meaned something very different to them than today.

And crash of the state was caused by multiple factors, chiefly lack of modern military-fiscal apparatus and dwindling economy of the XVII century. After "Deluge", Chmielnicki, Muscovites and later second depopulation during Great Northern War (presence of Swedes during both conflicts caused even 30% populaiton loss respectively, just like in Reich) state and economy was simply a wreck, and political culture reacted in primitive conservatism that was not present in XVI century.

So yeah, all of these collective identities are far too complex to summ them up with few phrases, unfortunatelly.

 

Btw. as to Haiduk's map, in 90% of cases this question "would you defend your country" is so contextual little in fact can be deduced about it. It is mostly question of geography and percepted dangers, not left or right views. It's directly proportional to with whom we are bordering with. Some like Dutch are lucky (though not necessarly in the past:https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Eighty_Years'_War ), others do not. That's all.

Edited August 12, 2023 by Beleg85

[Splinty]

1 hour ago, buena said:

All the power to you for doing what you thought was right but it doesn't change the fact that some people profited from it very handsomely

Name me a war where that doesn't happen. A large number of super rich families got their money from World War 2. 

Sorry Steve. I won't derail the thread again 

[dan/california]

 

Quote

https://threadreaderapp.com/thread/1690377301496672257.html

 

 A long thread from ChrisO_wiki about disputes in the Russian propaganda apparatus. It is as good a view as we are likely to get of the current fault lines in the Russian regime.

Quote

Russian propagandist Vladimir Solovyov has been denounced again in another memo to the Kremlin, reportedly written by the political strategist and Duma deputy Oleg Matveychev. It calls Solovyov and his colleague Margarita Simonyan "information structures of Prigozhin".

 

[Teufel]

On the defensive efforts of Russia as per previous statements of counterattacks.

Rather than concede this defensive alignment centered on Staromaiorske and Urozhaine once the defense line had been breached, Russia instead launched a furious series of counterattacks in early August, running straight uphill against newly established Ukrainian defensive positions on the high ground within the town. After several days of counterattacks, the Russians gave up, having accomplished nothing.

For all of Russia’s “fight for every inch” philosophy, I didn’t think Russia would be so boneheaded as to refuse to retreat from Urozhaine after giving up on retaking Staromaiorske. It’s hard to express just how impossible a position Urozhaine became after Staromaiorske fell firmly into Ukrainian control.

https://www.dailykos.com/stories/2023/8/12/2186469/-Ukraine-Update-Russian-folly-at-Urozhaine-and-Ukraine-s-long-game-across-the-Dnipro

[Haiduk]

Russians claim they lost Urozhaine. But from our side no neither official, nor unofficial confirmation yet.

[Haiduk]

1 hour ago, Yet said:

or... the storm shadows were identified by RU AD and primarily downed.

or... Ukr didnt throw in Storm Shadow yet for tactical reasons

or... Ukr doest have the possibility to send birds in the sky (so close to the front) to deploy Storm Shadow

1. Low probability, because Russian themeselves write SS is too hard to intercept and only one or two missiles were shot down, and 1 or 2 more were crashed itself.

2. Maybe, but I can't understand the tactical reason to spend SS for minor bridges in Chonhar and and Henichesk, which already substituted with pontoons and doesn't shoot in startregical bridge wich with 90 % guarantee will close it for enough large time. Especilaly now

3. The range of 290 km is allows (theoretically) to launch missiles from Huliaypole area in 270 km from the bridge. 

All this talks about "we will give you Taurus, but will pach it in order you do not fire on Russia" gives a question "either bridge considered as Russian territory or not?"

[kimbosbread]

6 hours ago, Butschi said:

As for fighting for my country: That is precisely the point. I couldn't care less about my country. My country is just a bunch of lines on a map.

See, that's where I think many countries are different than Western Europe. It's not just lines on a map, it's our neighbors and a bunch of shared values. If we can't defend ourselves, there's nobody else we can rely on. If Western Europe hadn't basically given up on defending itself and relied entirely on the US, maybe the attitude would be different there. Americans are still relatively patriotic, even there are various interpretations of what America, patriotism etc mean along the political spectrum. I think it is a common misconception to think that those on the left are less heavily armed than those on the right, and that they would not fight for their country (I am on the right FWIW).

[kimbosbread]

So slightly off topic, but I bet Putin could end the war favorably on his terms immediately if he made the following deal with Western Europe, much to the chagrin of Ukraine:

"As reparations, Russia will take all refugees and asylum seekers in Europe, past present and future, and settle them in the far east. All asylum seekers crossing the Mediteranean will be assumed to be seeking refuge in Russia, so will be sent there."

Even with all the evil stuff Putin has done, I bet if he offered that deal he could probably hold on to Luhansk + Donetsk (not that he really wants them), and maybe lose Crimea, but also no ICC and sanctions.

[kimbosbread]

3 hours ago, Artkin said:

They should really consider adding an airburst functionality to these drones, theyre a bit too inaccurate when they strike

Multi-mode warheads are definitely going to be a thing on future small drones. For anti-personnel, I'm imagining an expanding rod warhead like on smaller AA missiles that would target the limbs of soldiers. For vehicles, you probably want something that can either go HE or thermobaric (ie delay the boom to spray metal powders/vapor in the air).

[Yet]

41 minutes ago, Haiduk said:

1. Low probability, because Russian themeselves write SS is too hard to intercept and only one or two missiles were shot down, and 1 or 2 more were crashed itself.

2. Maybe, but I can't understand the tactical reason to spend SS for minor bridges in Chonhar and and Henichesk, which already substituted with pontoons and doesn't shoot in startregical bridge wich with 90 % guarantee will close it for enough large time. Especilaly now

3. The range of 290 km is allows (theoretically) to launch missiles from Huliaypole area in 270 km from the bridge. 

All this talks about "we will give you Taurus, but will pach it in order you do not fire on Russia" gives a question "either bridge considered as Russian territory or not?"

sure, would say that half the bridge is on RU territory, other half not. but heh, i didnt make the rules between UK and Ukr. 

1. could be different at entrance over clear sea right? 

2. probably right, 

3. theoretically correct, but even if practically also possible... is it safe to fly a plane over Huliaypole?

 

[Vanir Ausf B]

F-16 training update: the first 6 pilots should be ready by mid-summer 2024.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/2023/08/11/f-16-fighters-ukraine-training-delays/

[Butschi]

30 minutes ago, kimbosbread said:

See, that's where I think many countries are different than Western Europe. It's not just lines on a map, it's our neighbors and a bunch of shared values. If we can't defend ourselves, there's nobody else we can rely on. If Western Europe hadn't basically given up on defending itself and relied entirely on the US, maybe the attitude would be different there. Americans are still relatively patriotic, even there are various interpretations of what America, patriotism etc mean along the political spectrum. I think it is a common misconception to think that those on the left are less heavily armed than those on the right, and that they would not fight for their country (I am on the right FWIW).

I like the people I grew up with (less so my current neighbours, Swabians are a bit difficult...), I like the language, the values and the culture here in Germany. The people I care about, the life you I built for myself and others, that kind of stuff. Those are things that matter. But as I said, these aren't things that suddenly end at the border. A village on the Dutch/German border will have much in common with a village just on the other side of the border. They have much less in common with people on the other side of the country. And I kind of doubt people in Seattle have more in common with people in Miami than in Vancouver. So, do I think all those things above are worth fighting for? Yes! Do I think that it is worth fighting for being on this side or the other side of the Dutch/German border? Nope. Because that is just a line on the map that has relatively little impact on daily life nowadays. On which side of the Russian/Ukrainian border you are (be it draw dashed or solid) has an impact and I get why people what to fight for that.

This all has nothing to do with being able to defend oneself or being on the left or right side of political spectrum.

... and I seriously think I should stop here before sounding like a broken record.

Edited August 12, 2023 by Butschi

[Vanir Ausf B]

2 hours ago, Pete Wenman said:

Eliot Higgins Retweeted

Ukrainians advance 16-20 kilometers in 'tactically significant' move. Ukraine made a "tactically significant" advance along two lines of attack towards the southern coast, according to the Russian and Ukrainian sources.

 

 

Maybe since June 5, but not recently.

[poesel]

53 minutes ago, Haiduk said:

All this talks about "we will give you Taurus, but will pach it in order you do not fire on Russia" gives a question "either bridge considered as Russian territory or not?"

No - as far as Germany and all other UN countries (except for the usual suspects) is concerned, it is not Russian territory. It was built illegally without the consent of Ukraine.

Btw, this 'patch' is highly criticized here. It is seen as either a delaying action or as an insult to Ukraine, or both. The pressure is getting higher to deliver Taurus now and not draw it out like with the Leopards.

[Vanir Ausf B]

"Most of the prepared UA brigades have now been committed to the offensive according to my notes.

There are reports of 46th Air Mobile Brigade and 82nd Air Assault Brigade at the frontlines."

https://twitter.com/DefMon3/status/1690299316072587264

 

[JonS]

2 hours ago, Beleg85 said:

he Romans for whom for centuries dying with weapons in hand as part of militia for sake of own country was very natural business, both commoners and senators alike.

Isn't this a somewhat ... romanticized (heh) take on the composition of the legions?

[poesel]

Zelenskyy fired all the heads of the regional recruitment centers. @Haiduk - could you maybe comment on this?

 

[Vanir Ausf B]

6 minutes ago, JonS said:

Isn't this a somewhat ... romanticized (heh) take on the composition of the legions?

It's not much of an exaggeration for the Republican period, at least up to about 100 BC. After the professionalization of the legions loyalties shifted significantly.

Edited August 12, 2023 by Vanir Ausf B

[JonS]

Right, what I mean is that there is an awful lot more Roman history after the Republican period ended, and almost all the defending of Rome (writ large) occurred in that latter period.

I'll give you the Punic Wars in the Republican period, but were they defensive?