How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?

[kevinkin]

1 hour ago, Billy Ringo said:

Chinese imports to the US down 25% YTD since last year.

Thanks for the post. There has been reporting on China setting up shell companies in Mexico to take advantage free trade. Not if that alone would account for a 25% drop. Interesting to know if that's centered on a few narrows sectors. I think it would be easy to set up a puppet Mexico. Or at least try.  

 

[Splinty]

11 minutes ago, chris talpas said:

Does mobilization buy Putin time however?
Can he be trying to run out the clock hoping for Trump being the disruptor and pressuring Republicans to drop support for Ukraine?

Keep in mind the US elections are over a year away,and any policies that would harm Ukraine would take another 3 months or so to have any serious effects on their conduct of the war. Having said that I believe Trump getting back in office is a dangerous thing, but Ukraine still has a decent amount of time before any significant change in US policy can do damage. 

[Splinty]

15 minutes ago, chris talpas said:

Does mobilization buy Putin time however?
Can he be trying to run out the clock hoping for Trump being the disruptor and pressuring Republicans to drop support for Ukraine?

 

Edited August 9, 2023 by Splinty
double post oops

[Teufel]

1 hour ago, JonS said:

Ha. Fair point.

But let me counter by asking you this: is this thread for analysis, or do we just accept every claim of chemical weapon usage, mass mobilisation, and wunderwaffen at face value and run with that?

If it's the latter, then cool. War's over tomorrow because Gen Hodges said so. Well done chaps. Tea and medals all round.

To offer serious consideration, it’s about collecting and sharing information about the ongoing events in Ukraine. With some dark humor included for good measure, the first is usually just tragic rather than tragicomic so the latter helps.

Occasionally we share opinions, experiences, ideas and stories of our own related to information from various sources. If you ask me, there is no right or wrong perspective on what’s going on. Whoever claims to know anything with certainty at this point is either delusional or a bloody liar. We have very little information that we can say is independent and accurate. As such, we are all observers and for me that’s what this is all about.

Collectively trying to make sense of the madness that is human conflict. There are so many people from different disciplines and walks of life here, and I am very happy to see that. Numbers of readers probably far outweigh the number of writers and that’s equally important to remember. These people are also observers trying to make sense of what is going on.

We may or may not agree with each other and that’s the most important part. There is no process of indoctrinating each other into some type of group think where diverging opinions are not accepted. Poking fun of ideas, bringing up new ones, offering suggestions, experiences etc. is all part of it. It usually helps to keep things pragmatic as in answering posts with same effort as the writer did. If we don’t agree, which I hope is the case, then I’d like to include why that’s the case and not point to assumptions and say - you are wrong.

Remembering post from little more than year ago I went looking for it and found it. Will add as concluding answer to your question.

The_Capt wrote in April of 2022 and I quote;

“This is why we need new folks, they keep us on point by (re)asking the central questions. So what happens next?

No idea. I have ideas, opinions and what my instincts are saying but I really do not know. In my thinking the main effort here is to create a mental framework that allows us to understand what we are seeing, when it happens.”

Helping each other understand what’s going on, right or wrong, is what this is all about.

With that being said, we can’t ignore outrageous ideas or discussions that don’t fit said framework. What if we are wrong? Because they didn’t fit the discourse at the time?

Edit: if your question was about Ben Hodges being right or wrong, I don’t know. Would like to know in what context did he say that? Maybe the quote was taken out of context and going back, well maybe it makes sense. I don’t know.

Wasn’t dissing your argument, just the timing was kind of funny so I thought it be fun to poke around with it.

Edited August 10, 2023 by Teufel

[Fenris]

Been reading a few tweets claiming that UKR managed to capture battalion commander, one Major Tomov, in a raid over the river near Kherson.

Quote

Yesterday, a group of 18 Russian soldiers headed by Major Tomov, commander of 1882 Battalion, disappeared in the area of Kosachi Laheri, on the left bank of the Dnieper River. Tomov's group was reportedly ambushed after Ukrainians captured a radio station and requested "support".

The group apparently had mobile phones with detailed maps of Russian positions in the area. 

Information about the incident was coming through all day yesterday, so we can bring more details now.

I suspect that we might soon see actual footage from the incident by Ukrainians if it was indeed a landing operation.

Believe this is translated Telegram posts relating to the above describing what happened from the RU side

 

And these have been posted in the same thread, go-pro footage of a river raid.  Can't be sure it's tehs same action, the text claims it is I think.

 

[Artkin]

17 minutes ago, Fenris said:

Been reading a few tweets claiming that UKR managed to capture battalion commander, one Major Tomov, in a raid over the river near Kherson.

Believe this is translated Telegram posts relating to the above describing what happened from the RU side

 

And these have been posted in the same thread, go-pro footage of a river raid.  Can't be sure it's tehs same action, the text claims it is I think.

 

Very old river assault footage

[Battlefront.com]

3 hours ago, JonS said:

Ha. Fair point.

But let me counter by asking you this: is this thread for analysis, or do we just accept every claim of chemical weapon usage, mass mobilisation, and wunderwaffen at face value and run with that?

If it's the latter, then cool. War's over tomorrow because Gen Hodges said so. Well done chaps. Tea and medals all round.

I recommend listening to the ~35min interview of Hodges posted a couple of pages ago.  There's a bunch of good stuff on various topics, but relevant to ATACMS there is this (queued up):

I think you'd find his logic pretty sound.  His argument is basically this...

Russia has limited long term options to keep Crimea a viable part of Russia.  Russia also wants Crimea explicitly as a base for the Black Sea Fleet and as a means of threatening Ukraine's coastline.  Take away the means of keeping Crimea part of Russia AND reduce the advantages that come with holding it, and suddenly the picture has changed dramatically.  This is what he views as "untenable".

He has advocated using a variety of long range weapons, en mas, prior to this counter offensive in order to bring about the two goals above.  He explicitly states ATACMS is a representation of a class of weapons (long range precision strike) he thinks would do the trick, not that ATACMS alone would do it.  However, as we've discussed here ATACMS provides a means of sustained long range precision strikes that Ukraine currently lacks.  Therefore, it isn't the only thing he says Ukraine needs to make Crimea "untenable", but it is an important one.

I think he is correct.  If Ukraine was able to launch dozens of strikes every month instead of the handful it can do now, Sevastopol would have to be evacuated.  Air bases would be high risk.  Bridges would be knocked out and workarounds regularly put out of action.  And this can be done without any changes other than providing Ukraine with additional long range strike capabilities, especially mass ground based systems.

Now, I don't think Putin would just up and leave Crimea.  That's a pipe dream.  But it could be reduced from a central base of operations against Ukraine to a minor one.  Right now, that's the sort of thing that matters.

Steve

[Kinophile]

8 hours ago, Teufel said:

Take this as deeply insulting good Sir! Much more so than dissing by ignoring, engineers are people too!

Ok, maybe you are right! Garbagemen are probably more successful than most engineers on Tinder. Particularly with this type of profile content, engineering humor. Ha! Ha! Funny!

Ok, nobody likes a smart ***! I get that…

Anyhow, interesting read for anyone who might care for some smart *** opinions.

Edit: Damn it! Can’t even post relevant info, Danfrodo already beat me to the punch. Will see myself out!

Edit 2: On the way out, some interesting updates about command posts familiarizing themselves with work of fellow A&D engineers.

https://babel.ua/en/news/97178-the-defense-forces-hit-the-command-post-of-the-russian-army-in-nova-kakhovka

 

Such an Engineer type of post.

So cute, in confusing not-cute way.

:P

[kevinkin]

https://www.thedrive.com/the-war-zone/ukraine-situation-report-kharkiv-oblast-city-planning-evacuation-as-russians-approach

Given the slow and costly nature of Ukraine’s counteroffensive in Zaporizhzhia Oblast and the Donbas, any Russian breakthrough in Kharkiv Oblast would be of great concern to Kyiv. It could force Ukraine to reallocate forces and equipment to shore up that front, further diminishing its ability to liberate territory, up to and including Crimea.

I don't think we are talking about a "breakthrough".  But this is something to keep an eye on. Not sure why the situation is dire enough to publicly announce evacuations. Perhaps a plan of some type. 

“In the course of combat operations in Kupiansk direction, assault groups of the 6th Combined Arms Army captured four strongholds, five observation posts, destroyed a U.K.-manufactured Spartan Armored Personnel Carrier, one supply point and destroyed up to a company of infantry from the 67th Separate Mechanized Brigade near Mankovka tract,” the Russian MoD claimed. “In addition, during the day the enemy carried out nine counterattacks by units of the 67th and 14th separate mechanized brigades on Russian positions close to Sinkivka and Mankovka tract. All counterattacks were successfully repelled. The enemy losses were up to a platoon of manpower.”

Not much to write home about.

 

Edited August 10, 2023 by kevinkin

[dan/california]

12 minutes ago, kevinkin said:

https://www.thedrive.com/the-war-zone/ukraine-situation-report-kharkiv-oblast-city-planning-evacuation-as-russians-approach

Given the slow and costly nature of Ukraine’s counteroffensive in Zaporizhzhia Oblast and the Donbas, any Russian breakthrough in Kharkiv Oblast would be of great concern to Kyiv. It could force Ukraine to reallocate forces and equipment to shore up that front, further diminishing its ability to liberate territory, up to and including Crimea.

I don't we are talking about a "breakthrough".  But this is something to keep an eye on. Not sure why the situation is dire enough to publicly announce evacuations. Perhaps a plan of some type. 

“In the course of combat operations in Kupiansk direction, assault groups of the 6th Combined Arms Army captured four strongholds, five observation posts, destroyed a U.K.-manufactured Spartan Armored Personnel Carrier, one supply point and destroyed up to a company of infantry from the 67th Separate Mechanized Brigade near Mankovka tract,” the Russian MoD claimed. “In addition, during the day the enemy carried out nine counterattacks by units of the 67th and 14th separate mechanized brigades on Russian positions close to Sinkivka and Mankovka tract. All counterattacks were successfully repelled. The enemy losses were up to a platoon of manpower.”

Not much to write home about.

 

If I am looking at the map correctly Kupiansk has never been outside of Russian Artillery range. It is just that now that Russia is making a push in this area they are shelling the bleep out of it. 

[kevinkin]

I suppose the UA does not want to even think about their own shells falling on their own people which would limit their flexibility to respond. Prudent. 

[Battlefront.com]

23 minutes ago, kevinkin said:

https://www.thedrive.com/the-war-zone/ukraine-situation-report-kharkiv-oblast-city-planning-evacuation-as-russians-approach

Given the slow and costly nature of Ukraine’s counteroffensive in Zaporizhzhia Oblast and the Donbas, any Russian breakthrough in Kharkiv Oblast would be of great concern to Kyiv. It could force Ukraine to reallocate forces and equipment to shore up that front, further diminishing its ability to liberate territory, up to and including Crimea.

I don't we are talking about a "breakthrough".  But this is something to keep an eye on. Not sure why the situation is dire enough to publicly announce evacuations. Perhaps a plan of some type. 

“In the course of combat operations in Kupiansk direction, assault groups of the 6th Combined Arms Army captured four strongholds, five observation posts, destroyed a U.K.-manufactured Spartan Armored Personnel Carrier, one supply point and destroyed up to a company of infantry from the 67th Separate Mechanized Brigade near Mankovka tract,” the Russian MoD claimed. “In addition, during the day the enemy carried out nine counterattacks by units of the 67th and 14th separate mechanized brigades on Russian positions close to Sinkivka and Mankovka tract. All counterattacks were successfully repelled. The enemy losses were up to a platoon of manpower.”

Not much to write home about.

 

I don't know what this is all about.  There is no risk of a Russian breakthrough anywhere.  The fighting in the Kupyansk area has been constant since the front solidified and the supposed big offensive the Russians launched has already demonstrably failed.  The lines have largely remained static, with Russia making and losing small gains pretty regularly.  Plus, when was the last time the Russians were able to exploit any sort of advance into something more than a crawl?  More than a year ago.

Steve

[dan/california]

34 minutes ago, Battlefront.com said:

I don't know what this is all about.  There is no risk of a Russian breakthrough anywhere.  The fighting in the Kupyansk area has been constant since the front solidified and the supposed big offensive the Russians launched has already demonstrably failed.  The lines have largely remained static, with Russia making and losing small gains pretty regularly.  Plus, when was the last time the Russians were able to exploit any sort of advance into something more than a crawl?  More than a year ago.

Steve

It is about a big piece of the foriegn policy blob, and the Russians of course, wanting to panic the West into settling. What we need to do is demonstrate we are on a short steep path to producing 250,000 rounds of 155 a month, and a great deal else besides. Let the Russian ponder there losses going to a thousand a day, every day, as Ukraines go to 25. They are about to forcibly conscript virtually every person in the Russian prison system who can walk a couple of laps of the prison yard. 

Quote

 

https://www.express.co.uk/news/world/1800300/Putin-Russia-prisons-conscription-prisoners-Ukraine

Desperate Putin ‘planning to empty Russian prisons’ to replace soldiers killed in Ukraine

 

Ukraines answer needs to be "So what are you going to do in three months when they are all dead?" 

Edit: It will be very funny if the next batch of meat for the grinder is newly unemployed prison guards.

Edited August 10, 2023 by dan/california

[kevinkin]

This whole thing is curious too: 

https://ssu.gov.ua/en/novyny/sbu-vykryla-na-donechchyni-zhinochu-ahenturnu-merezhu-yaka-pratsiuvala-na-fsb-ta-vahnerivtsiv

Not a good story even if it's just a sad part of war. It is usually a good idea to get out ahead of emerging issues even if they are small in the scheme of things. So let's chalk this and Kupyansk up to that. If all this is simple western style transparency, kuddos.

US Marine back away from tanks and what do you know they went with:

https://news.usni.org/2023/08/08/first-marine-corps-mq-9a-reaper-squadron-now-operational

“It will serve as the airborne quarterback for littoral maneuver elements from the 3rd Marine Littoral Regiment,” Heiken said.

Years ago I thought UAVs were all about not putting humans in harms way. But it's more than that now. On the UAV is sensors sensors sensors with some firepower if needed on a plug and play modular platform. Human controllers can be almost anywhere. The fight is over the elinks between.  

Edited August 10, 2023 by kevinkin

[poesel]

13 minutes ago, kevinkin said:

This whole thing is curious too: 

https://ssu.gov.ua/en/novyny/sbu-vykryla-na-donechchyni-zhinochu-ahenturnu-merezhu-yaka-pratsiuvala-na-fsb-ta-vahnerivtsiv

Not a good story even if it's just a sad part of war. It is usually a good idea to get out ahead of emerging issues even if they are small in the scheme of things. So let's chalk this and Kupyansk up to that. If all this is simple western style transparency, kuddos.

 

Sorry, this is not directed at you specifically, but could we get a short summary, what the article is about?

People sometimes just post a link without comment. Sometimes you can deduct the content from the URL, most of the time not. This leaves the reader with the decision to click on that link and thus find out if interesting or not.

So a little piece of description would be helpful for everyone. Thanks.

[NamEndedAllen]

2 hours ago, Battlefront.com said:

I don't know what this is all about.  There is no risk of a Russian breakthrough anywhere.  The fighting in the Kupyansk area has been constant since the front solidified and the supposed big offensive the Russians launched has already demonstrably failed.  The lines have largely remained static, with Russia making and losing small gains pretty regularly.  Plus, when was the last time the Russians were able to exploit any sort of advance into something more than a crawl?  More than a year ago.

Steve

Certainly not a breakthrough! But they do seem to be making gains towards Kupiansk. Or do you recall that the Russkies have been this close earlier this summer?  I had the impression they had been slowly grinding out gains there. Despite periodic counterattacks. You and Haiduk would have a better grasp of this.

As Russia presses the main thrust of its offensive in Kharkiv Oblast closer to the city of Kupiansk, officials there are planning a mandatory civilian evacuation. Ukrainian military officials say Russian troops are now less than five miles from the city. It's a situation that, if unchecked, could impact Kyiv's ongoing counteroffensive…The evacuation plans in Kupiansk are being drawn up as the Ukrainian military says the main thrust of the Russian offensive in the region is pushing toward the city. 
 https://www.thedrive.com/the-war-zone/ukraine-situation-report-kharkiv-oblast-city-planning-evacuation-as-russians-approach

[kevinkin]

 

3 minutes ago, poesel said:

Sorry, this is not directed at you specifically, but could we get a short summary, what the article is about?

I think the link was from an official Ukrainian site. Do agree that links require an interpretation if only to foster discussion. But I also think the reader needs to take a look at the report cited to better comment of the interpretation. I don't think anyone is posting nefarious links and actually go out of their way to exclude them. 

As a result of a multi-stage special operation, the SSU Counterintelligence dismantled an enemy intelligence network in Donetsk oblast.

The group consisted exclusively of local women who supported russia’s armed aggression against Ukraine.

The agents worked simultaneously for the FSB and the private military company ‘Wagner’.

On the occupiers’ instructions, their accomplices collected intelligence on numbers and deployment of Ukrainian military equipment in the region.

Primarily, the women tried to identify and pass to the aggressor directions of flights of the AFU’s combat aircraft, including attack helicopters near Avdiivka.

They were also interested in routes of movement of Ukrainian heavy armoured vehicles to the frontline.

To gather intelligence, the spies walked in the area and covertly took photographs of Ukrainian facilities and targets.

The collected data were transmitted through two channels - to a handler in the FSB and a ‘Wagner’ mercenary.

Secure, closed chats in a popular messenger app were used for communication.

The SSU detained three members of the enemy network when they were conducting reconnaissance.

In addition, the SSU identified a resident (senior member) of the group who, at the beginning of the full-scale invasion, moved to russia to coordinate her ‘team’ from there.

According to the investigation, all four russian assets are residents of Pokrovsk district. Before 24 February 2022, they had been recruited by the occupiers and until recently were on standby.

During the searches at the women’s homes, the SSU found mobile phones used by the suspects in reconnaissance and sabotage activities against Ukraine.

[Teufel]

5 hours ago, Kinophile said:

Such an Engineer type of post.

So cute, in confusing not-cute way.

In the not-so-famous words of Chris Voss - “You’re right!”.

Hold on, where was I going with this one again?! Sorry, I forgot…

PS! Sheesh, this guy must been hammered out if his mind. Can’t put three words together into a coherent sentence.

[Teufel]

4 hours ago, dan/california said:

If I am looking at the map correctly Kupiansk has never been outside of Russian Artillery range. It is just that now that Russia is making a push in this area they are shelling the bleep out of it. 

This is not intended as sarcastic smart *** one liner, but doesn’t the saying go “offense is the best type of defense”?

From previous rants of Russian disinformation and propaganda; Russians are pushing now, as in timing, to relieve pressure further south. Think they are in reality full of smelly hot gases. Thus lack actual capabilities to overrun Ukrainians and make significant push towards capturing Lyman/Izium.

So they do what they do best, show their Sovjet inherent incompetence of conducting effective offensive operations. And you said it yourself, resorting to “shelling the sh*t out of it”.

Edit: We discussed the Sovjet doctrine of attritional defensive strategies before. Hold, retreat, artillery cover on previous positions and counterattack, on and on and on. Only problem for Russians now is that Ukrainians are doing the same thing.

When Russians attack, they retreat, Russians set in artillery fire, revealing positions, and Ukrainians answer with actually accurate counter artillery.

Elmar nailed it on the previous page;  “The Russian strategic reserves of stupidity are not at any risk of running out, it seems.”

Edit 2: Speaking of Russian propaganda, this guy is legendary; “The necessary reports are required from you in the universe of military leadership, and if reality does not correspond to it, these are problems of reality.”

 

Edited August 10, 2023 by Teufel

[Teufel]

17 hours ago, Battlefront.com said:

Looking at the much bigger picture, Ukraine knows that this war not only has to be won but won in a way that reduces the chances of Russia coming back around for Round 3 any time soon.  Slaughtering tens of thousands of untrained mobiks at comparatively little cost to Ukraine's manpower will be helpful.  Russia is already showing massive strain on workforce and military aged males regardless of whether Putin's regime faces an existential backlash from another mobilization.  Whatever happens with this war, the less a future Russia has to work with for a new war is a good thing for Ukraine.

Steve

This is great example of what William Spaniel covered in this video about Bakhmut, see particularly chapter 3 at 8:30 and forward. Same principles of gambling apply this time around with the full scale mobilization.

In short, Putin is betting the house on red as he knows anything outside of betting the house and winning results in him being a dead man.

Bets and loses - he is dead man. Doesn’t bet - can’t win and is thus a dead man. The outcome betting and losing is the same as not betting and not losing (not winning actually).

May sound confusing but he got nothing left to lose. Even if betting in all on one last roll of the dice.

One (un)lucky man with the odds stacked against him. It’s not roulette this time around. Hell, even Russian roulette probably give him better chances of surviving…

 

[JonS]

8 hours ago, Battlefront.com said:

I think he is correct.  If Ukraine was able to launch dozens of strikes every month instead of the handful it can do now, Sevastopol would have to be evacuated.  Air bases would be high risk.  Bridges would be knocked out and workarounds regularly put out of action.  And this can be done without any changes other than providing Ukraine with additional long range strike capabilities, especially mass ground based systems.

Aye, well, this at least makes a lot more sense than that tweet which basically reads as "give Ukraine Taurus tomorrow and the Russians will have to evacuate Crimea by the end of the week."

I'm still not sure I buy it though - they can possibly/probably deny the peninsular as a significant base of military operations through fires alone, but if Ukraine wants to retake Crimea I'm pretty certain that they're going to have to go in and winkle the the Russians out^, rather than just lobbing SSMs over on the regular. As Bullethead used to say; it ain't over till some grunt sticks a flag on it.

 

^ which could proceed pretty quickly if they can engineer a clean break either on the mainland or across the isthmus, rather than being a drawn out saga.

Edited August 10, 2023 by JonS

[riptides]

15 hours ago, JonS said:

Engineers: *also* bad at graphic design

Yeah, half those gears don't work in that pic/image.

Imagine that.

 

[Maciej Zwolinski]

8 hours ago, Battlefront.com said:

I think he is correct.  If Ukraine was able to launch dozens of strikes every month instead of the handful it can do now, Sevastopol would have to be evacuated.  Air bases would be high risk.  Bridges would be knocked out and workarounds regularly put out of action.  And this can be done without any changes other than providing Ukraine with additional long range strike capabilities, especially mass ground based systems.

That's true. However, this is something that UKR has been advocating for since very early in the war and is not getting from the Western allies. It is still quite likely such missiles will not be provided at all.  In light of the stubborn opposition among the allied countries, I am wondering why UKR are not trying to create an ersatz long range strike capability in the form of Shaheed style drones. Ukrainian drone strikes happen, but in small numbers (some MUGIN drones, some converted photographic recon drones from 1970s), aimed mainly at factories in Russian countryside and governement infrastructure in Moscow. They clearly are intended to create morale effects. 

On the other hand, if the UKR stopped those penny packet attacks for some time and instead gathered say 100 cheap kamikaze drones to be launched as a single go e.g. at the Feodosia airfield, that could conceivably saturate the Russian defences and smash e.g. 20+helicopters. Would it not be more valuable than even a month's worth of pretty pictures of explosions on the Internet? Of course not all targets are suitable for cheap kamikaze drones -  bridges are not, but airfields without strongly fortified hangars, ammunition dumps, POL storage areas, could be attacked in earnest, not just for laughs. I think that Shaheed clones could be manufactured in the Ukraine without significant problems, even using distributed manufacturing techniques like the Japanese in WWII. This and mortar bombs - I am wondering why we are not seeing more of them.

[Battlefront.com]

4 hours ago, NamEndedAllen said:

Certainly not a breakthrough! But they do seem to be making gains towards Kupiansk. Or do you recall that the Russkies have been this close earlier this summer?  I had the impression they had been slowly grinding out gains there. Despite periodic counterattacks.

They are, at least in the Kupyansk direction, though they have been losing ground more than gaining in the center and south of the Luhansk front.  All three actions are related.  This is just like Bakhmut in that the Russians tried for something big and had to settle for a slow and costly grind in one spot that has no hope of producing any significant effect.  The one caveat to that is Kupyansk is more important for Ukraine to hold than Bakhmut from a logistics standpoint.

The reality is that creeping gains, at great cost, has no record of success for Russia at all.  It doesn't gain them land, it doesn't gain them advantages in force ratios or change Ukraine's resolve to see Russia out of Ukraine.  Which is why I don't understand anybody being concerned about the larger implications of what Russia is doing towards Kupyansk.

2 hours ago, JonS said:

Aye, well, this at least makes a lot more sense than that tweet which basically reads as "give Ukraine Taurus tomorrow and the Russians will have to evacuate Crimea by the end of the week."

I'm still not sure I buy it though - they can possibly/probably deny the peninsular as a significant base of military operations through fires alone, but if Ukraine wants to retake Crimea I'm pretty certain that they're going to have to go in and winkle the the Russians out^, rather than just lobbing SSMs over on the regular

...

^ which could proceed pretty quickly if they can engineer a clean break either on the mainland or across the isthmus, rather than being a drawn out saga.

Agreed.  As I said in my summary, there's no chance Russia is just going to up and leave Crimea short of a catastrophic regime collapse (even a major regime collapse wouldn't do it, IMHO).  Russia would keep Crimea even if everybody in it starved to death in the process.

So it really comes down to what Hodges is calling "untenable".  If Ukraine can make it no longer viable as a base for military operations, the front to the north can not be supported to the extent needed given Ukraine's pressure.  This should, hopefully, open up the door for a swifter Ukrainian advance.  As has been pointed out before, all Ukraine needs is Melitopol and the land bridge is gone.  With that gone, Crimea becomes an even worse prospect for Russian use.

2 hours ago, JonS said:

As Bullethead used to say; it ain't over till some grunt sticks a flag on it.

Agreed.  And may he RIP.

1 hour ago, Maciej Zwolinski said:

That's true. However, this is something that UKR has been advocating for since very early in the war and is not getting from the Western allies. It is still quite likely such missiles will not be provided at all.  In light of the stubborn opposition among the allied countries, I am wondering why UKR are not trying to create an ersatz long range strike capability in the form of Shaheed style drones. Ukrainian drone strikes happen, but in small numbers (some MUGIN drones, some converted photographic recon drones from 1970s), aimed mainly at factories in Russian countryside and governement infrastructure in Moscow. They clearly are intended to create morale effects. 

On the other hand, if the UKR stopped those penny packet attacks for some time and instead gathered say 100 cheap kamikaze drones to be launched as a single go e.g. at the Feodosia airfield, that could conceivably saturate the Russian defences and smash e.g. 20+helicopters. Would it not be more valuable than even a month's worth of pretty pictures of explosions on the Internet? Of course not all targets are suitable for cheap kamikaze drones -  bridges are not, but airfields without strongly fortified hangars, ammunition dumps, POL storage areas, could be attacked in earnest, not just for laughs. I think that Shaheed clones could be manufactured in the Ukraine without significant problems, even using distributed manufacturing techniques like the Japanese in WWII. This and mortar bombs - I am wondering why we are not seeing more of them.

Coming up with an adequate substitute for Western rocket based PGMs is a tall order.  Not without direct Western assistance can I see them being able to do anything like that.  So the best they apparently can produce are larger drones, which do not pack the amount of explosives that are necessary to put military and road infrastructure out of commission.  They also can be, and are, shot down.

So yes, I can see the idea of using so many drones against Sevastopol (not an airbase) that Russia air defenses can't cope and that means some will get through.  Perhaps they are working towards that because the number of Ukrainian long range drone strikes seems to be smaller than their industrial capacity to produce drones.  Which is to say we might see a massed attack sometime this year.

Steve

[Teufel]

4 hours ago, JonS said:

^ which could proceed pretty quickly if they can engineer a clean break either on the mainland or across the isthmus, rather than being a drawn out saga.

3 hours ago, riptides said:

Yeah, half those gears don't work in that pic/image.

Imagine that.

Come on now guys, give engineers a break now. Kicking someone already down is not the way to go, pick on somebody your own size. Architects or IT strategists, or whatever it is that Steve does!

With great powers come great responsibilities. Be nice!

On topic - activities are continuing on the Tokmak direction. Vicinity of Verbove according to this one.

And northwest of Kreminna. 

Energoatom on Telegram, ZNPP has lost connection to high voltage transmission grid. Meaning that no electricity to and from substations is available at this point in time. Very short message not stating more than that.

Freely translated “Such a regime is difficult for the reactor plant, its duration is limited by the project and can lead to failure of the main equipment of the power unit”

Reuters goes as far as claiming - Energoatom announced that Europe's largest nuclear power plant is on the verge of collapse, as the backup line has less than half the power of the main transmission line.

Little alarmist considering that this has happened before, steam leak in the power unit that is in hot shutdown. Got several more units they can transfer steam production to supply the plant internally if needed. Trust that the Russians know how to fix this, Ukrainians at Energoatom just the messengers in this case.

Edited August 10, 2023 by Teufel