How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?

[Butschi]

20 minutes ago, poesel said:

Hmm, my comment about the US soldier not speaking Ukrainian has sparked a discussion in a direction that was not intended at all.

What I meant is that I was surprised that he was so unprepared in the language department. He knew he was going to a foreign country where he likely needed to communicate with people who don't speak English. In highly critical situations where your life depends on it. 100 words, no grammar, will get you through anything.

This was not meant as a quip at US language education in general.

As someone who lived a year in France without speaking more than a few words of French, I'm far from judging anyone based on their language preferences or skills. Just found the topic interesting.

[Teufel]

3 hours ago, Fenris said:

More sea drone attacks overnight apparently 

 

What are you on about, just little malfunctions of ballast pumps and immediately claims of successful Ukrainian attack! Pff, the drone footage is from video game for children. In worse case just unfortunate manufacturing problems, covered by warranties or insurance. The shipyard that built such marvelous ship stands ready with duct tape or glue, and it be as good as new in no time. Towing it because of fuel shortage, too much weaponry on-board. That’s all!

Or for all you know, just secret functionality of declining cannons to 30 degree angle. Special anti-submarine features being recorded for first time. Which western ship has such features? Ha, tell me which one! Landing ships are built in this way in Russia, makes disembarking and unloading much faster than any western vessel.

No way this is really happening, just keep calm wait for reliable Russian footage of perfectly intact ship.

Edited August 4, 2023 by Teufel

[FancyCat]

These landing ships have been used to supply Crimea. Not sure how cheap or easy to make these drones are, but certainly this raises questions as to the viability of Russia supplying Crimea should the bridge be impacted again.

[Teufel]

https://t.me/spook_boys/5262

https://t.me/spook_boys/5265

Here is some actual footage from such reliable Russian sources in the meantime. Do you not see the marvelous skills of the Russian army at full display here?!

Particularly the video of how to defuse mines is worth looking up. This is the quickest and most effective way to clear minefields, take note!

”So I just have to pull this cable to defuse it? Are you sure?”

PS! There is also more graphic footage, viewer discretion is advised for the videos. For those not faint of heart the direct link to the videos is below.

https://t.me/spook_boys

Edited August 4, 2023 by Teufel

[beardiebloke]

4 hours ago, Hapless said:

Now with first person view:

 

No sound?  RU may have finally attrited UKR's supply of irrelevant music clips.  This marks the end.

[Teufel]

This is even more reliable, hot off the presses from Moscow. Russian MoD inspecting the CV90 that took two RPG’s from the bushes few pages ago.

Look closely at the poor quality of these vehicles built 30 years ago and modernized approx. 20 years ago. As the inspector shows, can knock it over with feather. Nothing the MoD can learn from this, the cans fared better than the vehicle. Cans are still intact after 2(!) RPG’s.

Nothing to worry about for our glorious Russian army! The cans we shall inspect further though.

“Look here, the commander died gruesome death, as evident by lack of blood stains on his side in the turret. See?!

No wait! Did you idiots forget to stain the commander’s seat before the Minister of Defense arrived? What about the body? It ran away? Should make bodies out of you but we don’t have Ukrainian uniforms so you live to die another day!”

Edited August 4, 2023 by Teufel

[The_Capt]

2 hours ago, poesel said:

Hmm, my comment about the US soldier not speaking Ukrainian has sparked a discussion in a direction that was not intended at all.

What I meant is that I was surprised that he was so unprepared in the language department. He knew he was going to a foreign country where he likely needed to communicate with people who don't speak English. In highly critical situations where your life depends on it. 100 words, no grammar, will get you through anything.

This was not meant as a quip at US language education in general.

Working language in NATO is English.  Further, all US C4ISR support will be in English, as will most of the instruction going on outside of Ukraine.  Equipment manuals, English.  It is a US world, we only live here. 

Beyond that warfare does not need a lot of flowery discourse, pretty blunt and simply stuff really. 

[Letter from Prague]

2 hours ago, Teufel said:

What are you on about, just little malfunctions of ballast pumps and immediately claims of successful Ukrainian attack! Pff, the drone footage is from video game for children. In worse case just unfortunate manufacturing problems, covered by warranties or insurance. The shipyard that built such marvelous ship stands ready with duct tape or glue, and it be as good as new in no time. Towing it because of fuel shortage, too much weaponry on-board. That’s all!

Or for all you know, just secret functionality of declining cannons to 30 degree angle. Special anti-submarine features being recorded for first time. Which western ship has such features? Ha, tell me which one! Landing ships are built in this way in Russia, makes disembarking and unloading much faster than any western vessel.

No way this is really happening, just keep calm wait for reliable Russian footage of perfectly intact ship.

[Grossman]

22 hours ago, Battlefront.com said:

Ukraine is moving to take back Bakhmut without disrupting fighting in the south or, as it seems, the north.  I think they can do it in large part because Russia is overstretched.  Ukraine calling off the attacks in the south would allow Russia to shift resources to Bakhmut, making it far harder to take than it currently is.

Aside from this, Ukraine needs to keep the pressure on Russia's capacity to fight this war.  The southern front is a perfect way to do that.  Stepping back because "it's hard" is akin to giving up on this war altogether because Russia WILL replace its losses eventually given time and opportunity.  Not pressing hard in the south gives them both.

That said, at some point Ukraine may conclude that the southern counter offensive isn't worth continuing.  I think we are a couple of MONTHS away from that determination.

Steve

Steve. The southern front would appear to be the most strategic, the goal for this year, to reach the Sea of Azov. To cut the land bridge to Crimea, and occupied Ukraine to the west. If achieved it would be a turning point, forcing the Russians to make hard decisions on logistics. Meanwhile the Russians are forced to deploy in the east. 

[Battlefront.com]

8 hours ago, Fenris said:

More sea drone attacks overnight apparently 

 

Very nice!

Aside from the obvious good news about the ship getting significantly damaged, hopefully capsizing, there's three other major things to be excited about (for us, the opposite for Russia of course!).

The first is that Russia now has a lot more to worry about than it did before.  The port of Novorussiysk is about 700km direct path from the nearest bit of Ukrainian territory and to get there they had to navigate around Sevastopol, the most heavily defended space in the Black Sea. And yet, Ukraine was able to successfully strike a ship all that way from Ukrainian territory.

The second is that with the current damage to the Kerch and Chonhar bridges, landing ships are more important for Russian logistics than ever before.  Any loss of shipping capacity is going to make a bad situation much worse.

The third is that Russia has lost roughly 30% of its landing ships since the war started.  Quick check shows that the Black Sea Fleet started out with six ships, all likely in the Black Sea when Turkey closed the straights.  Two ships were transferred from the Northern Fleet (including this one, the Olenegorsky Gornyk, and its sister ship Georgiy Pobedonosets) and three from the Baltic Fleet (Minsk, Korolev, and Kaliningrad).  That is a total of 11 ships available from the start of the war.  So far a total of 4 ships have been put out of action (Olenegorsky Gornyk, Saratov, Caesar Kunikov, and Novocherkassk), which means there are 7 landing ships of various classes still available to Russia now.

This is a huge success for Ukraine and yet another example of why people should be patient with the counter offensive on the ground.  As long as Ukraine continues to significantly degrade (corrode) Russia's ability to maintain its fighting forces in southern Ukraine, progress is being made towards a collapse/withdrawal scenario.

Steve

[riptides]

4 hours ago, beardiebloke said:

No sound?  RU may have finally attrited UKR's supply of irrelevant music clips.  This marks the end.

Why is that thing lit up like that? It's like painting a target. Hit me HERE.

[cesmonkey]

I like this snippet from the below article:
 

Quote

    The question is which side can sustain the current rate of attrition. On the southern front, Russia’s 58th Combined Arms Army has borne the brunt of the fighting. About a quarter of the force is in the fighting positions at any one time and the Russians have had to rotate troops. They have few reserves. Ukraine, meanwhile, has fed additional units from the 10th Corps into the fight, keeping up the pressure. At some point, Russia’s infantry might be spread too thin and, with insufficient artillery and armoured support the defence could crumble. Dry weather will allow Ukraine to continue its push until the beginning of November. This will be a critical point: from then on, progress will depend on which side has made better preparations for winter fighting.

 

[Battlefront.com]

Just now, riptides said:

Why is that thing lit up like that? It's like painting a target. Hit me HERE.

Looks to me that the moon was behind it.  No doubt this was part of the attack plan.

Steve

[poesel]

3 hours ago, The_Capt said:

Working language in NATO is English. 

And Ukraine is in NATO? What point are you trying to make here?

[kevinkin]

36 minutes ago, Battlefront.com said:

progress is being

And over at the War Zone:

Update, 7:00 AM PST: As well as the apparent USV attack on the Russian Navy amphibious landing ship Olenegorsky Gornyak, there are reports that other Russian targets have come under recent attack.

There are reports that explosions occurred in the area of Yuzhnaya Ozerievka, where the Caspian Pipeline Consortium’s marine terminal is located, close to the scene of the landing ship attack. Once again, drone boats are said to have been used, in this case, to attack oil infrastructure.

 

[Battlefront.com]

21 minutes ago, poesel said:

And Ukraine is in NATO? What point are you trying to make here?

Getting back to your original point... the International Legion's language problem is, IMHO, a serious problem.  I have never understood why there isn't a requirement of English for all members, including Ukrainian.  I've watched many videos from those guys (most of which came via CivDiv's YouTube channel) and I found the piss-poor communications getting in the way of smooth operations to be common.  I don't know if it's gotten worse lately because earlier in the war there seemed to be more cohesive use of English.

Steve

[Beleg85]

18 minutes ago, Battlefront.com said:

Getting back to your original point... the International Legion's language problem is, IMHO, a serious problem.  I have never understood why there isn't a requirement of English for all members, including Ukrainian.  I've watched many videos from those guys (most of which came via CivDiv's YouTube channel) and I found the piss-poor communications getting in the way of smooth operations to be common.  I don't know if it's gotten worse lately because earlier in the war there seemed to be more cohesive use of English.

Steve

On other side, back relatively early in the war I watched several videos with one famous volunteer from PL (now sadly killed, great chap called "Kozak") who commanded detachment of Japanese, South Americans, Frenchmen and Swede. They intoroduced a lot of their own internal commands that reportedly worked very well in combat. Other guy, the one who I quoted regarding Kupyansk offenisve some time ago, now killed too, also remarked that his guys developed their own hectic language rarely understood outside unit; but a lot of it depended on commander ability, reinforcement rate, cohesion and "climate" in the platoon/detachment.

The more centralized it was, the worse were effects and smaller unit cohesion. Thus already by late Summer there were two distinct group in IL naturally formed: small longtime platoons that were de facto embedded with Ukrainian frontline troops, that worked and communicated "as a family", and larger battalion-sized groupings that were send from Kyiv when needed strategcally (Lysychansk case). Most pathologies in the Legion came from the central ones, especially 3rd Battalion. I think CivDic remarked in his videos that his recording show one such rather ad-hoc group.

 

 

[panzermartin]

In WW2 there was anti-sub netting around important ports. I guess Russians must be thinking something similar against naval drones after this serious incident.  

[Battlefront.com]

Stumbled upon this subtly pro-Russian YouTube channel.  The tip off?  Headline that Ukraine just lost it's 30th Leopard 2 (Oryx says 12, BTW).

The interesting thing is the presentation is MOSTLY devoid of obvious language favoring Russia.  But you can pick up on things, such as calling the Ukrainian tanks as "wave after wave" and some nonsense that Russia is now only using cluster munitions because Ukraine is.  The rest is how he presents things, which is to show all Russian attacks as if they are big deals, showing how those attacks will do way more than they realistically can.  All videos shown are Russian and often irrelevant to the day's report.  The usual show something good from the past to undermine the bad of today.

Why do I find this interesting?  Because he doesn't sound like a raving lunatic Russian supporter, people can be deceived into thinking they are getting a balanced report.  His reports aren't a lie, and he does cover Russian failures, but the overall presentation is certainly that Ukraine is losing and Russia is winning.  The people commenting on his videos seem to share that opinion.

Steve

[mosuri]

8 hours ago, Carolus said:

Drone dropped devices which play sounds of gunfire and voices to confuse the Russians.

I know someone has this exact idea here in this thread! Now apparently in use at the front!

 

[poesel]

1 hour ago, Battlefront.com said:

Getting back to your original point... the International Legion's language problem is, IMHO, a serious problem.  I have never understood why there isn't a requirement of English for all members, including Ukrainian.

That was not my point. Inside the IL English should be standard and I guess it de facto is.

But what happens if you need to talk to someone outside the IL? Some Ukrainian yokel (sorry) who has never spoken a word of English? Or, even if he has - what are the chances he learned military or medical slang in high school?

My point is that if you go to a foreign country to fight, you ought to learn the ****ing language - at least the very basics. For your own sake.
I have nothing more to add.

[Thomm]

2 hours ago, Battlefront.com said:

Looks to me that the moon was behind it.  No doubt this was part of the attack plan.

Steve

Well, the moon should be behind the drone, and not the ship, shouldn't it?

[Battlefront.com]

41 minutes ago, Thomm said:

Well, the moon should be behind the drone, and not the ship, shouldn't it?

No.  Nobody is going to be looking out at the water with eyeballs.  Ships have fancy detection systems for spotting threats. 

The Ukrainian boats, however, don't and that means they need to spot their targets visually through a grainy camera feed.  Timing the attack so that the moon is near full, no clouds, and directly behind the ship silhouetting it is an excellent way to ensure a hit.  Since weather and moon cycles are all known factors, they can time an attack and plot the correct angle to take advantage of it.

The above is all speculation, but it is also based on pretty sound logic.  And looking at the video, it certainly was advantageous.  I doubt it was by accident.

Steve

[Battlefront.com]

1 hour ago, poesel said:

That was not my point. Inside the IL English should be standard and I guess it de facto is.

Not as far as I can tell.  It is the preferred method of communications, but for sure isn't standard.  The videos CivDiv uploaded of the MRAP attack was an American (callsign "Cognac") in the turret with a Ukrainian driver who effectively spoke no English.  They seemed to do well together, but the driver was getting communications over the radio in Ukrainian and couldn't communicate whatever was going on to the gunner.  Then the gunner went into another vehicle and it got worse because the gunner didn't have much understanding of what was going on. So on and so forth.

1 hour ago, poesel said:

But what happens if you need to talk to someone outside the IL? Some Ukrainian yokel (sorry) who has never spoken a word of English? Or, even if he has - what are the chances he learned military or medical slang in high school?

Exactly my point as well.  Beleg85's point up above shows this as well.  In that case the unit learned how to function with its own members, but was unable to coordinate with others.  And what happens when someone new comes to the unit as a replacement?  Learning curves are many and steep enough for a unit, but to also try and figure out communications?  That's not good at all.

CivDiv uploaded a bunch of videos last summer and since then which showed this sort of problem being routine.  Even when the squad had English as a standard language, they ran into problems whenever they bumped into Ukrainian units. 

1 hour ago, poesel said:

My point is that if you go to a foreign country to fight, you ought to learn the ****ing language - at least the very basics. For your own sake.

Agreed.  And units which don't have Ukrainian as a standard language should be used in roles where they are less likely to need Ukrainian to begin with.  Urban fighting alongside random Ukrainian units is definitely not optimal even if the English speakers know basic military terms in Ukrainian.  Urban fighting is dangerous enough as it is.

Steve

[beardiebloke]

8 minutes ago, Battlefront.com said:

No.  Nobody is going to be looking out at the water with eyeballs.  Ships have fancy detection systems for spotting threats. 

The Ukrainian boats, however, don't and that means they need to spot their targets visually through a grainy camera feed.  Timing the attack so that the moon is near full, no clouds, and directly behind the ship silhouetting it is an excellent way to ensure a hit.  Since weather and moon cycles are all known factors, they can time an attack and plot the correct angle to take advantage of it.

The above is all speculation, but it is also based on pretty sound logic.  And looking at the video, it certainly was advantageous.  I doubt it was by accident.

Steve

Did you mean that the big light "behind" the ship was the moon?  It looks like three very bright light sources on the ship as the drone gets closer.  Even without a full-ish moon the coastline appears so well lit up that this looks like a hard target to miss.  If those ship lights were there to help spot drones ... well, not very effective without an alert watch.  Light pollution isn't only bad for astronomers.  With all the GPS etc I imagine old skool blackout curtains and light curfew doesn't happen anymore.