How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?

[Offshoot]

A video that goes into a little detail on the tactics used for an assault on a Russian trench system. In this case, rather than riding in on armoured vehicles, the Ukrainians dug a purpose-built and concealed position to attack from, surprising the Russians, who were reportedly well equipped. It also seems like the assaulting troops are receiving orders/directions based on what the drone can see.

 

Edited July 20, 2023 by Offshoot

[paxromana]

2 hours ago, dan/california said:

I have just had a strange thought. The lesson Ukraine has taught the entire world will make it vastly more difficult to manage the break up of Russia, should that unhappy circumstance occur. After Ukraine's/Russia's lesson in what to states with nuclear weapons vs states with out them, no fragment of what used to be Russia would ever give up any weapons it ended up with.

But would they have the resources to maintain them ... a lot of the warheads are evidently close to their 'use by' date and even Russi as is is having problems maintaining them according to come sources.

Assuming, always, that the 'warheads' under those tarpaulins aren't just warhead shaped piles of crushed Coke Cans!

Edited July 20, 2023 by paxromana

[Offshoot]

37 minutes ago, Rokko said:

Looks like some significant engagement took place near Krasnohorivka, near Marinka. Looks like the emblem of one of the Air-Assault brigades

 

https://twitter.com/TheDeadDistrict/status/1681934452438585347?s=20

Reporting from Ukraine covered this fight around a coal mine in a recent video

 

[Carolus]

Regarding grain export agreement: I strongly doubt that NATO or another international organization will do something like an escort mission. Two reasons:

1) the Bosporus strait is closed by Turkey to any warships not stationed in the Black Sea, which would prevent any Western escort or mine clearing ships from entering anyway.

Legally, allies are not an exception, even though if NATO was a properly functional alliance and we lived in a just world, Western nations would arrange it with Turkey anyway, await the Russian protest for this breach of international law at the UN and then pat each others' shoulders, laughing and pointing at the Russian representative.

2) this is probably much too hot for most Western states. As in the sky, with Russia harrassing American and British aircraft, putting ships into the Black Sea enormously increases the risk of an accident or incident which might lead to an exchange of fire or loss of a ship - which would force Western politicians to react - maybe even say how concerned and worried they are about it on TV. Something they definitely want to avoid. 

If they play it smart, which they won't, the West would send an unescorted civilian freight ship to load grain, and watch if Russia pulls the trigger.

If they don't, a bit more of Russia's small shrunken balls will be revealed to the world and export can continue.

If they do, this would reduce Russia's standing in the world more and might actually cause a reaction at the UN general assembly.

Most likely, I suspect, is that something trilaterial between Ukraine, Turkey and Russia will be negotiated and grain export will continue after a few more weeks of nightly bombardments.

 

[Maciej Zwolinski]

13 hours ago, Carolus said:

22.000 killed, 40.000 wounded, so ca. 62.000 casualties of 78.000 in total (79,5% casualty rate, 28% death rate)

Truly a Himmelfahrtskommando

[Maciej Zwolinski]

11 hours ago, Battlefront.com said:

I rehabbed a building that used to handle feedstock (grain).  Everything in the section that was responsible for transferring the grain had special enclosed electrical services.  Lights, light switches, motors for machinery... everything had to ensure that not one tiny spark got into the room while there was grain dust in the air.

Steve

I had a dispute where the explosion apparently was triggered by electricity generated by rubbing grain sacks against something in the silo or even the grains rubbing against each other - as close to spontaneous combustion as one ever gets. Very dangerous place to work.

[kevinkin]

Mining the Black Sea:

https://news.usni.org/2023/07/19/russia-says-all-ships-in-the-black-sea-heading-to-ukraine-are-potential-carriers-of-military-cargo

Up to 10 percent of the world’s grain is produced in Ukraine. The country serves as the bread basket for much of the Middle East and North Africa

“The question is how much would a nation want to get involved? You know, we just deployed a destroyer, and F-35s and F-16s to protect merchant ships coming out of the Straits of Hormuz by Iranian attacks,” Mercogliano said. “Yet we seem like we’re not going to do the same for ships in the Black Sea.”

I do think grain will get through in the end as it did before. But how about mining the approaches to St. Petersburg as a bargaining chip in the interim? The west has to establish the initiative somewhere, anywhere. Seems like the west has been reacting to Russia rather than the other way around.  

Jul 19, 2023 - Press ISW

Russian forces launched an extensive missile and drone attack against port and grain infrastructure in southern Ukraine on July 19 likely to further emphasize Russia’s objections to the renewal of the Black Sea grain deal and hinder Ukraine’s ability to export grain. The Ukrainian General Staff reported that Russian forces conducted strikes using 16 Kalibr sea-based cruise missiles, eight Kh-22 anti-ship missiles, six Onyx cruise missiles, one Kh-59 guided air missile, and 32 Iranian-made Shahed drones. Ukrainian military officials reported that Russian forces predominantly targeted civilian and military infrastructure in Odesa Oblast with Kh-22 and Onyx missiles and that Ukrainian forces shot down 37 air targets including 13 Kalibrs, one Kh-59 missile, and 23 Shaheds. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky stated that Russian forces deliberately targeted the infrastructure necessary for executing the Black Sea grain deal in Odesa, Zhytomyr, and other oblasts. The Ukrainian Southern Operational Command reported that Russian forces struck grain and oil terminals and damaged tanks and loading equipment. Ukrainian Minister of Agrarian Policy and Food Mykola Solskyi reported that Russian strikes destroyed 60,000 tons of grain in the Chornomorsk port in Odesa Oblast on the night of July 19. The Southern Operational Command added that Russian strikes also targeted coastal areas in Mykolaiv Oblast and some infrastructure in Kherson City. Spokesperson of the Ukrainian Southern Operational Command Captain of the First Rank Nataliya Humenyuk stated that the Russian July 19 strikes “happened virtually simultaneously,” and that Russian forces likely attempted to overwhelm the Ukrainian air defense systems. Ukrainian Air Forces Spokesperson Colonel Yuriy Ihnat stated that this attack was the most intense missile and drone attack on Odesa Oblast since the start of the full-scale invasion in February 2022.

Which is more strategically significant, the Kerch bridge or the grain exports?

 

Edited July 20, 2023 by kevinkin

[womble]

3 hours ago, Carolus said:

1) the Bosporus strait is closed by Turkey to any warships not stationed in the Black Sea, which would prevent any Western escort or mine clearing ships from entering anyway.

 

Don't forget that Turkiye is in NATO. So while they might not be "Western", they're connected. And While Erdogan has turned his face a little more westwards since his re-election, he's still the closest thing to a friend of Russia sharing any Black Sea coast.

[MSBoxer]

20 minutes ago, kevinkin said:

But how about mining the approaches to St. Petersburg as a bargaining chip in the interim?

Mining the approaches to a Russian city would be a step to far and St Petersburg would be a poor choice.  If one were to go this route, which I would not, I would choose to hinder access to Kaliningrad in the Baltic.  Easier access and it is surrounded by NATO(or soon to be NATO) countries.

[kevinkin]

 

42 minutes ago, MSBoxer said:

would be a step to far

I doesn't matter, St Pete was just thrown out there. But do something western capitals. Your weapons have already killed Russians. Kick it up a notch and grow some initiative. The west can't fight with its navy nor air force. They are so tied up Houdini couldn't figure this one out. They are playing right into whatever strength Russian has - ground forces. Putin's nuclear bluster has to be challenged. Better to do it now rather than kicking the can down the road for the next gen to figure out under even worse circumstances.

[paxromana]

2 minutes ago, kevinkin said:

But do something western capitals.

'Safety Inspections' on all Russian Ships (or ships whose cargoes are heading fior or hwich have come from Russian Ports) transiting the Straits of Gibraltar ('Freedom of Navigation' rules shouldn't apply to Russia as long as they ignore them for others), the Kattegat and Skagerrak, or the Suez Canal (or maybe just ratchet up the transit fees to all Russian ships (or those carrying cargoes to or from Russian Ports)? Find them in violation of all sorts of regs and impound them until they are 'repaired' ... which they neverwill be, not satisfactorily.

[DesertFox]

LOL!

 

https://twitter.com/Osinttechnical/status/1682017975572766722?s=20

[Billy Ringo]

1 hour ago, kevinkin said:

Mining the Black Sea:

https://news.usni.org/2023/07/19/russia-says-all-ships-in-the-black-sea-heading-to-ukraine-are-potential-carriers-of-military-cargo

Up to 10 percent of the world’s grain is produced in Ukraine. The country serves as the bread basket for much of the Middle East and North Africa

“The question is how much would a nation want to get involved? You know, we just deployed a destroyer, and F-35s and F-16s to protect merchant ships coming out of the Straits of Hormuz by Iranian attacks,” Mercogliano said. “Yet we seem like we’re not going to do the same for ships in the Black Sea.”

I do think grain will get through in the end as it did before. But how about mining the approaches to St. Petersburg as a bargaining chip in the interim? The west has to establish the initiative somewhere, anywhere. Seems like the west has been reacting to Russia rather than the other way around.  

Jul 19, 2023 - Press ISW

Russian forces launched an extensive missile and drone attack against port and grain infrastructure in southern Ukraine on July 19 likely to further emphasize Russia’s objections to the renewal of the Black Sea grain deal and hinder Ukraine’s ability to export grain. The Ukrainian General Staff reported that Russian forces conducted strikes using 16 Kalibr sea-based cruise missiles, eight Kh-22 anti-ship missiles, six Onyx cruise missiles, one Kh-59 guided air missile, and 32 Iranian-made Shahed drones. Ukrainian military officials reported that Russian forces predominantly targeted civilian and military infrastructure in Odesa Oblast with Kh-22 and Onyx missiles and that Ukrainian forces shot down 37 air targets including 13 Kalibrs, one Kh-59 missile, and 23 Shaheds. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky stated that Russian forces deliberately targeted the infrastructure necessary for executing the Black Sea grain deal in Odesa, Zhytomyr, and other oblasts. The Ukrainian Southern Operational Command reported that Russian forces struck grain and oil terminals and damaged tanks and loading equipment. Ukrainian Minister of Agrarian Policy and Food Mykola Solskyi reported that Russian strikes destroyed 60,000 tons of grain in the Chornomorsk port in Odesa Oblast on the night of July 19. The Southern Operational Command added that Russian strikes also targeted coastal areas in Mykolaiv Oblast and some infrastructure in Kherson City. Spokesperson of the Ukrainian Southern Operational Command Captain of the First Rank Nataliya Humenyuk stated that the Russian July 19 strikes “happened virtually simultaneously,” and that Russian forces likely attempted to overwhelm the Ukrainian air defense systems. Ukrainian Air Forces Spokesperson Colonel Yuriy Ihnat stated that this attack was the most intense missile and drone attack on Odesa Oblast since the start of the full-scale invasion in February 2022.

Which is more strategically significant, the Kerch bridge or the grain exports?

 

So worried about Russia's reaction,  Russia's red-lines and what might they do if "X" happens.

What about NATO's red-lines? EU red-lines? US red-lines?

They've bombed and killed citizens. Intentionally targeted civilian infrastructure and residential areas. Raped.  Tortured.  Kidnapped children.  Blown up dams resulting in the destruction of 1,000s of acres of prime farmland, blown up ports important to international shipping of food supplies and who knows what else.

Does NATO or the US even have red-lines? Are we so GD'md spineless to even dare state them publicly and hold the Russians accountable?

I've negotiated with major retailers for over 3 decades and one thing I've learned without exception--they'll keep asking for more until they are finally told NO.  A hard NO, and not before.   Maybe it's time to draw a hard line in the concrete, state it publicly and take control back from the Russians.

 

Edited July 20, 2023 by Billy Ringo

[kevinkin]

11 minutes ago, paxromana said:

'Safety Inspections'

Anything to throw Putin off and make his messy situation more complicated. He and Russia could be falling into a comfortable new normal post "coup". Time for a brush back pitch. 

[Carolus]

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/world-news/2023/07/20/russia-war-crimes-abducting-ukraine-children-elderly/

Article on treatment of Ukrainian disabled and elderly in occupied regions.

Edited July 20, 2023 by Carolus

[Battlefront.com]

6 hours ago, Rokko said:

Looks like some significant engagement took place near Krasnohorivka, near Marinka. Looks like the emblem of one of the Air-Assault brigades

 

https://twitter.com/TheDeadDistrict/status/1681934452438585347?s=20

Hard to tell the totality of the destruction, but assuming quite a few vehicles retreated I'd say this was a major attack relative to others.  There's enough clear destruction to show that it was at least 1x Tank Plt and 2x Mech Inf Plts.  Presuming 30% casualties this means it was an entire mech infantry heavy BTG sized attack.

Noteworthy for sure.

Steve

[Bearstronaut]

17 hours ago, JonS said:

One you can do at home:

Mentos + coke in a shallow bowl

Vs.

Mentos + coke in a coke bottle

At home, but I do reccomend doing it outside ...

When I was in high school my little sister and her friend poured baking soda into a glass vinegar bottle in our backyard and screwed the top back on. It exploded and my sister took a big piece of shrapnel in her leg. Her friend was miraculously unharmed considering that they were standing only a few meters away. I had to drive my sister to the ER to get the shrapnel removed and her wound stitched up. She still has a gnarly scar on her thigh from the incident.

[Battlefront.com]

5 hours ago, Carolus said:

If they play it smart, which they won't, the West would send an unescorted civilian freight ship to load grain, and watch if Russia pulls the trigger.

This is more-or-less what I was suggesting, but the West wouldn't have to do it.  Look at this chart:

Egypt and India are considered to be allies by the Kremlin and they have MASSIVE need for this grain.  Does anybody think that Russia would sink an Egyptian or Indian flagged ship?  Putin is stupid, but he's also a bad bluffer.  He'd find some way to climb down instead of military confrontation.

Similarly, there's no way that Putin would strike a Spanish flagged vessel.  That would potentially trigger an Article 4 and 5 situation, which we have seen Putin avoid doing.

As for the other nations, less clear except that striking unarmed civilian vessels conducting food runs would not help Russia's cause.

Now, as for the escort... sure, no NEW war vessels can come through the Bosporus Straights unless Turkey decides to break the neutrality arrangement.  Which it is not likely to do.  But there are already NATO vessels in the Black Sea.  They don't have to be capable of defending themselves, they could be unarmed for all that matters.  All that matters is that they fly the NATO flag when they set sail.

NATO's current naval presence is more than adequate.  Here's a story about a naval exercise done just a few months ago with 30 NATO vessels (some of which no doubt aren't applicable):

https://www.militarytimes.com/news/your-military/2023/03/30/nato-us-forces-join-romania-led-black-sea-military-drills/

Steve

[FancyCat]

Map of traffic to Russian and Ukrainian ports in the occupied region near the Kerch Bridge, that's a lot of traffic....perfect for some unmanned boats.

Quote

Ukraine, as it showed with the naval drone attack on the Kerch bridge, certainly has the means to sink commercial vessels in the open sea. And there is a lot of commercial traffic to Russian Black Sea ports.

 

[Battlefront.com]

8 minutes ago, Bearstronaut said:

When I was in high school my little sister and her friend poured baking soda into a glass vinegar bottle in our backyard and screwed the top back on. It exploded and my sister took a big piece of shrapnel in her leg. Her friend was miraculously unharmed considering that they were standing only a few meters away. I had to drive my sister to the ER to get the shrapnel removed and her wound stitched up. She still has a gnarly scar on her thigh from the incident.

I still marvel at how any curious or adventurous child manages to make it to adulthood.  The number of things I did that could have resulted in my early death or dismemberment is certainly long.  Some of them, like riding my bike 25mph down a massive hill without my hands on the handlebars was a nearly daily activity.  And no, back in my day we didn't have bike helmets even when we biked uphill in 3' of snow at -10deg to get to school

Steve

[A Canadian Cat]

10 minutes ago, Battlefront.com said:

I still marvel at how any curious or adventurous child manages to make it to adulthood

Only those that make it to adulthood are able to marvel at how they got there.

[kevinkin]

12 minutes ago, Battlefront.com said:

I still marvel at how any curious or adventurous child manages to make it to adulthood.

My folks hedged their bets and had life insurance on us until 21. If the salesman only knew about the Molotov cocktails and bicycle jump over the Swimming River, I am sure the premiums would have been outrageous. 

Edited July 20, 2023 by kevinkin

[FancyCat]

Russia's statement about potentially attacking any Black Sea ports of Ukraine and ships heading to it include this example heading to a smaller port. As you can see, the Black Sea is about to get freaking hot. I feel like this is not being emphasized, but both sides are about to turn the Black Sea which still has tons of shipping ongoing into a warzone.

Turkey, the UN, and etc are probably frantically calling both Ukraine and Russia trying to sort out a return to the grain deal as rn, it looks to me heading straight into Russia losing its ability to export and import from the Black Sea.

Quote

BLUE GATE (), with a gross tonnage of nearly 15,000, is easily the largest bulk carrier sailing to a Ukrainian port at this hour.   Vessel will dock at the river port of Reni, Ukraine later today.

 

[A Canadian Cat]

8 hours ago, womble said:

One thing those packages will probably have to include will be guarantees rather than the (largely worthless, and they knew it) "assurances" which were all Ukraine got.

Except that really cannot happen. If things break up into small pieces the US really cannot guarantee anything to a tiny city state sized place land locked in the middle of a sea of other such places. So, the controlling war lord will have to do something else with the handful of nuclear warheads they picked up when they took over the the local air base from Moscow.

[A Canadian Cat]

12 hours ago, Kinophile said:

https://sp.rmbl.ws/s8/2/I/A/K/6/IAK6k.caa.mp4?u=th8n9&b=0

3rd Brigade Mech Infantry Assault With Armor

Not sure if posted previously.

I cannot tell what kind of tank that is. Could it be one of those T55 variants with the NATO 105 gun?