Letter from Prague Posted July 17, 2023 Share Posted July 17, 2023 28 minutes ago, kevinkin said: https://news.yahoo.com/crimea-bridge-key-russian-supply-050455702.html Russia has extended the Black Sea deal three times in the past year, despite repeated threats to quit. It suspended participation after an attack on its fleet by seaborne Ukrainian drones in October, leading to a few days when Ukraine, Turkey and the United Nations kept exports going without Moscow. Denys Marchuk, deputy head of the Ukrainian Agrarian Council, the main agribusiness organization in Ukraine, said seaborne exports might proceed again without Russian agreement. "If there will be safety guarantees from our partners, then why not conduct the grain initiative without Russia's participation?" he told Reuters. Any such resumption of shipments without Russia's blessing would probably depend on insurers. Industry sources told Reuters they were studying whether to freeze their coverage. "The (key) question is whether Russia mines the area which would effectively cease any form of cover being offered," one insurance industry source said. Mining would not be a step Putin (or whomever) would take. Would not be worth the PR or any reaction from NATO to save the starving. Really? Because it seems to be like exactly the action that Russia would take, spitefully trying to cause maximum damage to everyone around. They already blew up a dam and murdered civilians running away from the flood. There is nothing despicable enough for them not to do. 4 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
billbindc Posted July 17, 2023 Share Posted July 17, 2023 Well worth reading: 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
danfrodo Posted July 17, 2023 Share Posted July 17, 2023 6 minutes ago, billbindc said: Well worth reading: Dang, about time someone provided me w some confirmation bias. But seriously, this is what (and most of you I suspect) have been wondering. I brought this up w my Normandy analogy yesterday. Once through that front line, what is behind it? I remember folks on the 'net freaking out some months ago because "OMG russia digging ditches!" without thinking about the fact that RU can't man all those trench lines. But can they man them enough? I am hoping it's thunder run time once through. There will be mines & roadblocks but hopefully not much more. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
womble Posted July 17, 2023 Share Posted July 17, 2023 46 minutes ago, Letter from Prague said: Really? Because it seems to be like exactly the action that Russia would take, spitefully trying to cause maximum damage to everyone around. They already blew up a dam and murdered civilians running away from the flood. There is nothing despicable enough for them not to do. In spite of all their "Russia Stronk" rhetoric, they still need people to buy their grain and petrochem. Cutting off Ukrainian grain will piss off the people who are currently their "friends", who buy that stuff. They might go elsewhere, and that's a risk that Russia maybe doesn't want to take. As has been said upthread, the Russians have threatened to take their bat and ball home on this one several times, and the one time they did, it made no difference and they slunk back out to play with the other kids a few days later. Sea Mines are equal opportunity nasties with a propensity for wandering off from where they're deployed; they're almost as likely to sink Russian bottoms carrying Russian grain as they are to sink Ukrainian or neutral ships carrying Ukrainian grain, especially if there are Turkish or other "neutral" nations providing mine sweeping services. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RandomCommenter Posted July 17, 2023 Share Posted July 17, 2023 9 minutes ago, danfrodo said: Dang, about time someone provided me w some confirmation bias. It's what we're all praying for. A line that looks solid, that has held for months only because commanders refuse to allow forward troops to retreat at all, even if they should, that deploys blocking squads to shoot people who do retreat. Such a line can look like it is holding until it suddenly collapses. Think back even to the American stand on Bunker Hill where the first two British attacks held and then suddenly there was nothing to repel the third attack. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheVulture Posted July 17, 2023 Share Posted July 17, 2023 Large traffic jam on the roads out of Crimea in the direction of Russia - I guess Russians in Crimea are figuring that if the Kerch bridge is out of action and no-one knows how long the land bridge will be safe for, then it might be a good time to get back to Russia and play it safe: https://t.me/bbbreaking/160773 A traffic jam more than 5 kilometers long has formed in the Kherson region on the way of motorists leaving Crimea towards Melitopol along the E-105 highway, RIA Novosti reports. The traffic jam starts from Sokolovsky Lake, located about 20 kilometers from the Chongarsky Bridge. There are many cars with license plates of various regions of the Russian Federation among those leaving. Motorists leaving Crimea through the Chongar checkpoint keep their way along the Kherson (past Genichesk) and Zaporozhye (bypassing Melitopol) regions, the DPR (through Mariupol) and to Rostov-on-Don. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kevinkin Posted July 17, 2023 Share Posted July 17, 2023 1 hour ago, Letter from Prague said: Really? Because it seems to be like exactly the action that Russia would take, spitefully trying to cause maximum damage to everyone around. They already blew up a dam and murdered civilians running away from the flood. There is nothing despicable enough for them not to do. They have not stopped the grain up until now. What has changed? The had three chances to do so. Maybe they care less about "guilty sub human Ukrainians" close to the war zone than innocent third world babies in far away Africa. Think about it. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
danfrodo Posted July 17, 2023 Share Posted July 17, 2023 54 minutes ago, TheVulture said: Large traffic jam on the roads out of Crimea in the direction of Russia - I guess Russians in Crimea are figuring that if the Kerch bridge is out of action and no-one knows how long the land bridge will be safe for, then it might be a good time to get back to Russia and play it safe: https://t.me/bbbreaking/160773 A traffic jam more than 5 kilometers long has formed in the Kherson region on the way of motorists leaving Crimea towards Melitopol along the E-105 highway, RIA Novosti reports. The traffic jam starts from Sokolovsky Lake, located about 20 kilometers from the Chongarsky Bridge. There are many cars with license plates of various regions of the Russian Federation among those leaving. Motorists leaving Crimea through the Chongar checkpoint keep their way along the Kherson (past Genichesk) and Zaporozhye (bypassing Melitopol) regions, the DPR (through Mariupol) and to Rostov-on-Don. Too bad UKR can't capture all these tourists and then hold them hostage to get back the kidnapped children. The thousands of kidnapped UKR children. (I wouldn't do this but dang I would want to) 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kevinkin Posted July 17, 2023 Share Posted July 17, 2023 14 minutes ago, danfrodo said: Too bad UKR How about a well placed munition to merely cause panic among all those stuck on the highway. Bring to the war home to the elite beach goers. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dan/california Posted July 17, 2023 Share Posted July 17, 2023 2 minutes ago, kevinkin said: How about a well placed munition to merely cause panic among all those stuck on the highway. Bring to the war home to the elite beach goers. Not worth the PR hit, and what Ukraine really wants is the people in Crimea who are from Russia, or have the closest attachment to the Russian government, to leave. I might be tempted to blow up some bridges BEHIND them, just to make the point they should stay gone. 6 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kinophile Posted July 17, 2023 Share Posted July 17, 2023 (edited) Are you guys really discussing indescriminately shelling civilians in a traffic jam and/or kidnapping children? Seriously, WTF. Is this a Wagner Telegram channel or some ****? Get a grip on yourselves. Edited July 17, 2023 by Kinophile 14 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Twisk Posted July 17, 2023 Share Posted July 17, 2023 (edited) Its that period between any sort of noticeable operational movement where the thread goes full schizo What some posters need to do is ask themselves whether they have anything useful to add to the conversation and avoid posting fan fic about striking civilian columns. Edited July 17, 2023 by Twisk 10 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Beleg85 Posted July 17, 2023 Share Posted July 17, 2023 Meanwhile, more info are coming in about increased Russian pushes in the north. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Offshoot Posted July 17, 2023 Share Posted July 17, 2023 Oryx website will continue but Twitter account will not Quote Just to clear up any confusion, the Russian and Ukrainian losses lists will continue to be updated after I end Oryx on October 1st. Jakub & the rest of the team will continue their 'work' as usual. The website will remain up, but this Twitter account will go silent. 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Offshoot Posted July 18, 2023 Share Posted July 18, 2023 A long video on the battles around Vuhledar (closed captions are tolerable). "Vuhledar Fortress: How the Black Zaporozhians [named for the coalmine] held the city for a year and destroyed the enemy" 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chuckdyke Posted July 18, 2023 Share Posted July 18, 2023 You don't need air superiority to destroy a bridge nowadays. Is the airplane becoming obsolete? 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
danfrodo Posted July 18, 2023 Share Posted July 18, 2023 (edited) delete Edited July 18, 2023 by danfrodo deleted 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kevinkin Posted July 18, 2023 Share Posted July 18, 2023 3 hours ago, kevinkin said: How about a well placed munition to merely cause panic Not to harm anyone to clarify. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Battlefront.com Posted July 18, 2023 Share Posted July 18, 2023 5 hours ago, billbindc said: Well worth reading: The OSINT analysis of Russia's deployments in the south that we've been discussing here is probably coming from (mostly) the same sources as above. Which means there are two possibilities... the OSINT reporting is correct and Russia is in big trouble, or the OSINT reporting is substantially wrong and Russia is doing significantly better than we thinking. I'm going with the OSINT being reasonably accurate. One element of the fight in the south so far is that Russia has been fighting hard to keep their initial positions instead of giving ground and fighting in their main line. This is more than speculation, it's confirmed factually correct. So it really comes down to Russia having either about the number of forces we think, leaving the rear lines largely unmanned, or they have 50%-100% more forces than anybody is estimating and they are secretly manning the main line. I do not believe everybody would have missed such a force existing, plus OSINT has been pretty good throughout this war. Ukraine is doing the right thing and, as usual, Russia is doing the exact opposite. But I'm not blaming the battlefield commanders as much as Putin. They started this campaign season woefully undermanned. Mobilization or harboring forces this winter were the obvious solutions. But Putin enthusiastically kills off his own men and is reluctant to replace them, so it is what it is. I expect we'll see some significant, though small scale, Ukrainian gains in the next week or two. Then, with some luck, bigger gains by mid August and some sort of breakthrough with plenty of time for exploitation before the rains start. Steve 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Battlefront.com Posted July 18, 2023 Share Posted July 18, 2023 Oh, and it is sound logic to use Kadyrovites presence on the battlefield as an indicator that Russia is running out of forces to commit to the south. Steve 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Battlefront.com Posted July 18, 2023 Share Posted July 18, 2023 About ISW's detailed analysis of the crisis in the Russian MoD's chain of command... Looking at this from the Kremlin power struggle standpoint, I don't know what to make of the MoD (presumably with Putin's blessing) dismissing the most vocal voices for change. The most logical opposition to Putin is a group that is focused on fixing the war, not sitting by and watching it made worse. So either the group some of us presume is challenging Putin's rule isn't focused on fixing the war or Putin views that group as weak. Either way, it seems that Putin feels he has freedom of action and is exercising it. I don't presume that the removed military leaders are "competent". Just because they object to how this war is being fought doesn't mean they have any better ideas than what we're seeing play out. The real question is how many competent leaders will remain after the purge ends? Given their apparent small number now, I think the answer is probably "fewer" after things settle down. Steve 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kevinkin Posted July 18, 2023 Share Posted July 18, 2023 Add this a-hole to the growing list: https://news.yahoo.com/exclusive-belarus-abducts-thousands-ukrainian-060000079.html 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chrisl Posted July 18, 2023 Share Posted July 18, 2023 10 hours ago, dan/california said: South Korea and Japan have extensive Nuclear power programs, Japan reprocesses fuel. Taiwan has a couple of reactors. I think in a truly crash program it would take Japan a month to get a fission weapon on a cruise missile in quantity if they were willing to deal with a clean up hassle. South Korea does not have active reprocessing, so they would have to do more work, and make a bigger mess to get the fuel together, my guess is six months. Based on publicly available information Taiwan would need a year or more. This of course assumes all three of them did not start large covert programs a year ago, and I think that is a lousy assumption. I mean they are arguably the three most technically sophisticated countries on the planet, so it is just a case of will and effort. the technology is just this side of trivial for all three. NOBODY wants to be the next Ukraine, and making people think that way is why we should have put two heavy brigades INTO Ukraine in January 2022 instead of pulling out everybody who was there. Water under the bridge at this point, but we will regret it for a very long time. For Japan I it might take a couple of afternoons. It wouldn't surprise me terribly if they'd already fabricated all the parts and had just never assembled them so they could claim they don't have nuclear weapons. South Korea might not be much farther from that point. Taiwan might not need them - they probably have technology for effective directed energy weapons and can just vaporize anybody who comes too close. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kevinkin Posted July 18, 2023 Share Posted July 18, 2023 War Zone reporting tonight: https://www.thedrive.com/the-war-zone/ukraine-situation-report-kyiv-claims-massive-russian-buildup-near-kharkiv By comparison, Cherevatyi noted, “the largest number of Soviet troops in Afghanistan was 120,000." The 100,000 troop number is bewilderingly large. While we cannot confirm it, even a significant portion of that figure would be highly concerning. The Russians “are concentrating everything in order to break through our defenses” the spokesman said. “Our soldiers are on the defensive. They don't allow the enemy to finally seize the initiative. That's why they hit them constantly.” “The operational situation in the Eastern direction remains difficult,” Commander of the Ground Forces of the Ukrainian Armed Forces, Colonel-General Oleksandr Syrskyi, said Monday, according to the Military Media Center Telegram channel. “In order to stop the offensive actions of our troops in the area of Bakhmut, the enemy is actively transferring additional forces and means to this direction, [including some] airborne troops.” Let's see comes of this over night - if anything. Hard to believe we are just hearing about a major concentration just now. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dan/california Posted July 18, 2023 Share Posted July 18, 2023 39 minutes ago, kevinkin said: Add this a-hole to the growing list: https://news.yahoo.com/exclusive-belarus-abducts-thousands-ukrainian-060000079.html Allow me to again suggest the strategic target for the counter offensive is Minsk. Oh and that man really needs to meet his lamp post. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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