How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?

[DesertFox]

Any idea which kind of top attack ammo that would have been? Some posters in the thread mentioned 155mm BONUS round?

 

https://twitter.com/bayraktar_1love/status/1679876219192344576?s=20

Edited July 14, 2023 by DesertFox

[Beleg85]

3 hours ago, Kinophile said:

This.  I've been working back in time for comparative analysis, as I don't believe the current power structures in modern Russia are actually modern. 

I had actually landed at the middle-late Byzantine Empire but your mention of chevauchees (a perfect word in itself, it's an excellent description of the Wagner March) leads me to France prior and during the Hundred years war.

The slow descent into constant violent negotiation between the Nobles and King,  with the King perceived as all-powerful to the hoi polloi but actually in hock to shifting alliances, has strong Russia 2023+ vibes. 

This is interesting comparision in itself, but it has its limits- of course modern Russia lacks balancing issues that were present in medieval times like influential, autonomic Church and heavily localized, basically independent elites (also a feature of late Romaioi).

Now, as far as I udnerstand chevauchees/rizza/reizy were highly destructive endevours, laying terrible waste to countryside. I more envisaged Wagner march to Moscow (note, it was usually called "March for Justice" or similar in Russian net) as something more resembling a strike or petition of disgruntled lower officials than true mutiny- such things happen, when there is no normal communciation between the top and people actually doing dirty work on the ground. A manifestation, to put the steam out of this boiling kettle. It may even have multiple beneficial effects in the end, of course looking from Kremlin perspective.

44 minutes ago, Battlefront.com said:

As for the march on Moscow, it was clearly a collaboration between Wagner and regular Russian forces.  Anybody with any sense of how equipment is allocated could see that.  What this Telegram post gives us is some of the details of how it played out.

Yup, during night of Wagner march we instantly picked up an odd fact they have top AA, heavy assets with them. What is more interesting, there are rumours in the Russian net it were these soldiers (muscovite regulars joined with mercs) that didn't hesitate to shoot down the plane and possibly one of destroyed helicopters. This could put this "unlucky acident" in slithly different light than if some shadowy group of daredevil mercenaries did this. Kremlin tries to hush these rumours, as generally anything other connected to these events.  Very awkward situation.

 

Oh, you remember the Ukrainian soldier that was terrribly maimed whe jumped on mine? Reportedly he is doing ok and better:

 

Edited July 14, 2023 by Beleg85

[Carolus]

 

During NATO training of Ukrainian troops in Germany by German Army:

Quote

German NATO instructors just told Ukrainian soldiers to drive around minefields. 

[panzermartin]

4 minutes ago, Carolus said:

 

During NATO training of Ukrainian troops in Germany by German Army:

At this point I think NATO armies have more to learn from UKR veterans than they can teach them. 

I don't think there are officers in NATO ranks that have fought an actual peer to peer war. 

 

[billbindc]

17 minutes ago, Beleg85 said:

This is interesting comparision in itself, but it has its limits- of course modern Russia lacks balancing issues that were present in medieval times like influential, autonomic Church and heavily localized, basically independent elites (also a feature of late Romaioi).

Now, as far as I udnerstand chevauchees/rizza/reizy were highly destructive endevours, laying terrible waste to countryside. I more envisaged Wagner march to Moscow (note, it was usually called "March for Justice" or similar in Russian net) as something more resembling a strike or petition of disgruntled lower officials than true mutiny- such things happen, when there is no normal communciation between the top and people actually doing dirty work on the ground. A manifestation, to put the steam out of this boiling kettle. It may even have multiple beneficial effects in the end, of course looking from Kremlin perspective.

Yup, during night of Wagner march we instantly picked up an odd fact they have top AA, heavy assets with them. What is more interesting, there are rumours in the Russian net it were these soldiers (muscovite regulars joined with mercs) that didn't hesitate to shoot down the plane and possibly one of destroyed helicopters. This could put this "unlucky acident" in slithly different light than if some shadowy group of daredevil mercenaries did this. Kremlin tries to hush these rumours, as generally anything other connected to these events.  Very awkward situation.

 

Oh, you remember the Ukrainian soldier that was terrribly maimed whe jumped on mine? Reportedly he is doing ok and better:

 

The point of a chevauchee is, inter alia, to cause damage with political effect. I would submit that what constituted damage (and accrued power) in the 1300’s is not quite the same thing as in 2023. Prigozhin very certainly and severely damaged Putin’s power because abundance and communication makes damaging hard assets more difficult while damaging soft assets becomes easier to accomplish. So, don’t take my analogy literally. It’s meant to be adjusted to current conditions. 

[DesertFox]

11 minutes ago, Carolus said:

 

During NATO training of Ukrainian troops in Germany by German Army:

What do you expect from a Putin Troll account? Look up his timeline and you know what ilk that is.

[acrashb]

4 hours ago, DesertFox said:

Now tell me where O´Brian or the Kiev Independant misquoted said general.

They used one word, "ideal".  When a native English speaker says conditions are "probably not ideal" (a more full quote), what they mean is conditions are awful, but are saying it more politely (more circumspectfully).  Seeing as you're from Eastfalia, perhaps English is not your first language and this would not be obvious to you.

[Carolus]

17 minutes ago, DesertFox said:

What do you expect from a Putin Troll account? Look up his timeline and you know what ilk that is.

An absolutely valid warning and I should have checked beforehand. The account truly seems vile. But the specific video clip was not tampered with. 

Edited July 14, 2023 by Carolus

[alison]

5 hours ago, Carolus said:

The Taiwanese Hawk batteries were recently retired. They are claimed to be in good condition and were upgraded multiple times over the last decades. 

 

I don't follow Twitter so I don't know the reliability of this account, but in Taiwan as far as I can tell this news comes from an unnamed source that allegedly spoke to 中國時報 China Times, which is owned by 旺旺集團 Want Want Group - a senbei rice cracker conglomerate that has links to the CCP and has been buying up a bunch of media in Taiwan and pushing a pro-China agenda. You can read a whole chain of English-language articles about them and why many people consider them to be compromised here: https://newbloommag.net/tag/want-want-group/

Of course, being reported by pan-blue media doesn't mean this story is not true, it's just important to bear in mind the source when reporting on news coming from "the biggest medias" in Taiwan, and the context in which particular sources tend to report. Pan-green 自由時報 Liberty Times, for example, also reports on this briefly but describes it as a rumor.

We might never know for sure because the line from the MND is a "no comment" comment that all retired weapons are disposed of according the law. Presumably China would treat it as crossing some kind of red line if Taiwan were to overtly provide military aid to a country being invaded by their "no limits" partner, so this kind of under the radar aid is perhaps the best we can hope for beyond the wink wink nudge nudge civilian drones and other support vehicles.

[Battlefront.com]

2 minutes ago, alison said:

I don't follow Twitter so I don't know the reliability of this account, but in Taiwan as far as I can tell this news comes from an unnamed source that allegedly spoke to 中國時報 China Times, which is owned by 旺旺集團 Want Want Group - a senbei rice cracker conglomerate that has links to the CCP and has been buying up a bunch of media in Taiwan and pushing a pro-China agenda. You can read a whole chain of English-language articles about them and why many people consider them to be compromised here: https://newbloommag.net/tag/want-want-group/

Of course, being reported by pan-blue media doesn't mean this story is not true, it's just important to bear in mind the source when reporting on news coming from "the biggest medias" in Taiwan, and the context in which particular sources tend to report. Pan-green 自由時報 Liberty Times, for example, also reports on this briefly but describes it as a rumor.

We might never know for sure because the line from the MND is a "no comment" comment that all retired weapons are disposed of according the law. Presumably China would treat it as crossing some kind of red line if Taiwan were to overtly provide military aid to a country being invaded by their "no limits" partner, so this kind of under the radar aid is perhaps the best we can hope for beyond the wink wink nudge nudge civilian drones and other support vehicles.

Thanks for that!  It is very difficult to keep track of who is who in the media or, as also noted above, Twitter.  It's also easy to take things that are true and take them out of context, or at least have an argument based on a single word (also noted above).

This whole communications stuff is complicated, that's for sure 

Steve

[Taranis]

43 minutes ago, Beleg85 said:

Oh, you remember the Ukrainian soldier that was terrribly maimed whe jumped on mine? Reportedly he is doing ok and better:

 

Really courageous one by the way ! He is a medic if I remember rigth.

[Battlefront.com]

16 minutes ago, Taranis said:

Really courageous one by the way ! He is a medic if I remember rigth.

His was one of the hardest of those terrible incidents to watch in that video.  He's got a long road to recovery ahead of him, but it appears he's off to a good start.

Steve

[Taranis]

Soldiers from 3rd Assault Battalion evacuated (dead and wounded) after an explosion just in front (soldier pov) 

It seems the one in front doesn't survived (maybe the one we see at the end of video lying in the APC) 

https://t.me/ab3army/2885

A great reminder of the heavy price ukrainian people is paying day after day for his freedom... And our... 

 

Edited July 14, 2023 by Taranis

[MSBoxer]

33 minutes ago, acrashb said:

They used one word, "ideal".  When a native English speaker says conditions are "probably not ideal" (a more full quote), what they mean is conditions are awful, but are saying it more politely (more circumspectfully)

Typically when I say or hear "not ideal" the intent is that it could be better, but it could also be worse.  I don't think of it as awful.  Perhaps I am an outlier in this case.

Now when a politician uses it, they could mean almost anything 

Could be better
It is awful
I disagree with the plan

 

Edited July 14, 2023 by MSBoxer

[DesertFox]

30 minutes ago, acrashb said:

They used one word, "ideal".  When a native English speaker says conditions are "probably not ideal" (a more full quote), what they mean is conditions are awful, but are saying it more politely (more circumspectfully).  Seeing as you're from Eastfalia, perhaps English is not your first language and this would not be obvious to you.

Thanks for jumping in. Yep thats exactly what the general said who both quoted. Since said general is hanging out in press conferences more often than not, we can safely presume, he thought about his wording carefully.

[poesel]

1 hour ago, DesertFox said:

Any idea which kind of top attack ammo that would have been? Some posters in the thread mentioned 155mm BONUS round?

 

https://twitter.com/bayraktar_1love/status/1679876219192344576?s=20

As there is no parachute visible, it is not SMArt 155 round, so BONUS seems likely.

Another hint is the music, which is definitely French

[Letter from Prague]

Yes, munitions come with associated soundtrack you're supposed to put on videos nowadays.

...

So we had S-200 remade into ballistic missiles, and modern take on V-1 (including the pulsejet engine). There seems to be a trend of "we need long-range fires" in stuff Ukrainians are building.

[poesel]

Russian artillery hits Ukrainian M-55S. Due to accuracy, probably Krasnopol.

The hit may have been directly on the mantle, as the vehicle seems to be largely unscathed from the hit. Hopefully crew survived. But there is an internal fire at the end of the video, so the vehicle is lost.

 

[Taranis]

"The blood of infantry is the sweat of artillery"

 

[Battlefront.com]

Good video (I'm only 1/3rd through it) showing the aftermath of recently liberated villages.  Dead Russians everywhere that need to be carefully cleaned up by specialized units adept at handling boobytraps.  You can also see how dangerous drones are because just the sight of one caused the group to move out fast.

 

Steve

[billbindc]

3 hours ago, Battlefront.com said:

"Byzantine" is the exact term that came to mind as well.  It's a common English stand-in for a complex system of competing power interests that on a good day keep a state functioning, but on a bad day tear it apart because it is overly complex and at has inherently competing agendas by those wielding higher levels of power. 

Ironically, the President of the United States has more direct authority over the running of his government than Putin does because the US system is official and governed by clearly defined rules (if they are unclear they eventually get clarified).  Putin's government, on the other hand, is a complex system of power structures that do not exist on paper but very much are a reality.  It's hard to take corrective action against something that theoretically doesn't exist

The US the President can get rid of heads of Cabinet and Agency positions pretty much on a whim (we saw a TON of this during the previous Admin).  Putin can't do this without risking some sort of challenge to his continued rule, which is what we are seeing play out now.

Steve

For the record, I fully support the use of the term byzantine in the sense used above. I violently react to any such use in relation to the later Roman Empire. Just setting some boundaries.  

Edited July 14, 2023 by billbindc

[acrashb]

1 hour ago, DesertFox said:

Yep thats exactly what the general said who both quoted.

My attempt to add useful linguistic context has failed completely. Or, as one might put it, my wording and the response was probably not ideal.

[Battlefront.com]

28 minutes ago, acrashb said:

My attempt to add useful linguistic context has failed completely. Or, as one might put it, my wording and the response was probably not ideal.

Words are so tricky!  When someone I trust says "it is not my intention to do X" I think of it one way, when a shady for profit corporation comes into our rural area and says "it is not my intention to do X" I think of it a very different way.  Especially because it's so clear that the only economic incentive they have to do X is for the very thing they said they do not "intend" on doing.  Made even clearer when they refused to put their "intentions" in a legally enforceable contract.

Of course this is a completely fictional example, not something based on something that really happened

Steve

[Haiduk]

On 7/13/2023 at 2:48 AM, Kinophile said:

@Haiduk what is Nettle?

Em... What do you mean? ) 

[DesertFox]

Good example, how vids are faked. Next time be sceptical what you think you see might not be what you really see.

 

https://twitter.com/Tendar/status/1679940102070362116?s=20