How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?

[dan/california]

And again, he is the man with ALL of the maps.

[dan/california]

 

Quote

 

https://www.tabletmag.com/sections/news/articles/ukraine-needs-to-win-faster-galeotti

In all three wars, the more rapid Ukraine’s successes, the better its prospects. It is close to being fully mobilised and cannot replenish its human losses as easily as Russia, with its population three times the size of Ukraine’s. A war of attrition is likely to play to Russia’s strengths rather than its weaknesses. With no dramatic change in the situation, the Russian people will likely become acclimated to wartime conditions, and despite early (and massively overoptimistic) Western expectations about a quick collapse of the Russia economy under the pressure of sanctions, there will be money available to fight this war for at least another year or two. In fact, as both Iran and North Korea have demonstrated over the past two decades, authoritarian regimes can force the costs of sanctions onto their people nearly indefinitely, relying on coercion and propaganda to make it stick. The longer the war lasts, the greater the pressures on the Western coalition will grow—and the greater the temptation to try and pressure Kyiv into making an ugly peace with Moscow.

 

 

A sober take from Galliotti

[Jr Buck Private]

I think the next triggering event for Russian disharmony will occur when Bakhmut fails to Ukraine.   Can't wait to see Prig throw a hissy fit over that.   I know he ain't going to keep his mouth shut.  He'll be loud. 

[Battlefront.com]

1 hour ago, Beleg85 said:

It's double- edged axe for Luka.

Oh, I think it's far worse than that.  It's like a double edged axe head stuck on hilt of a double edged sword.  No matter how you hold it, you're going to get cut.  Badly.  I for one wouldn't want to handle it!

1 hour ago, Beleg85 said:

If he will be able to host half-sovereign warlord and court him properly, in longer term he may have serious card in his sleeve he did not posess before. On other side, mercs in Belarus is ideal for Kremlin to distance itself from Wagner and ready military force in case of some turmoil in Belarus itself.

Wagner will do whatever is asked of it by the Kermlin the second they get instructions and the wire transfer clears.  ESPECIALLY if it means they can go back to Russia.  They will happily drive on Minsk and use a sledgehammer on Luka's melon of a head if that's the job.  Luka is not stupid, he knows these guys can NOT be trusted.  They even turned on Putin.

I've seen some commentary out there that suggests this was some brilliant plan of Luka to rebalance the power relationship with Russia.  I just don't see how that is the case.  These guys are a net liability, period.

Honestly, I am shocked by the commentary I'm seeing from "experts".  They seem to be mesmerized by the theater as performed on the stage and are talking about only that.  They aren't even trying to look behind the curtain, yet that is where the real show is.

1 hour ago, Beleg85 said:

Families are also very important factor here. Will they in majority move to Belarus with whole enterpraise, or stay in the country? Former solution would basically made Wagner self-contained military diaspora. I mean, one would think that phenomena like prisoner soldiers, military settlers and lancknechts travelling with entire families are only met on pages of historical books, not in XXI century Europe- but Russia may surprise us again.

Yeah, I brought this up early on and also the fact that Wagnerites are not some sort of ethnic or religious group who were born with their identity and will die with it.  These guys signed short term contracts for a job with what a more-or-less private company.  What happens when they don't want to be a Wagnerite any more?  It seems they will have to stay in exile from Russia.  That's not going to do anything positive for Belarus.

Steve

[masc]

https://old.reddit.com/r/CombatFootage/comments/14jozmg/ukrainian_army_enters_minefield_in_bakhmut/

Footage of a mass casualty event and casevac.

Warning: Clear drone footage of a Ukrainian stepping out of a Bradley right onto a landmine, losing a leg.

Edit: Just noticed the title says Bakhmut but the video features Bradleys. Either the title is wrong, the 47th Brigade is spread over multiple fronts, relocated, or aren't the only ones with Bradleys. The one at the end has a 3/7 or 37 marking and 371 as well, but I assume that's an individual/platoon designation like Wehrmacht AFVs had instead of a larger unit.

Edited June 26, 2023 by masc

[cesmonkey]

 

[dan/california]

13 minutes ago, masc said:

https://old.reddit.com/r/CombatFootage/comments/14jozmg/ukrainian_army_enters_minefield_in_bakhmut/

Footage of a mass casualty event and casevac.

Warning: Clear drone footage of a Ukrainian stepping out of a Bradley right onto a landmine, losing a leg.

Mines are perhaps the single biggest factor in the second half of this war.

Ugly as this is, it also reemphasizes that Ukraine is winning the counter-battery fight. If that minefield was being covered properly by the Russians it would have been infinitely worse. Thanks to the The_Capt for pointing this out the first time.

 

Edit: and those Bradleys should have been there last fall, Before Russia had time to mine the entire FEBA.

 

Edited June 26, 2023 by dan/california

[Battlefront.com]

31 minutes ago, masc said:

https://old.reddit.com/r/CombatFootage/comments/14jozmg/ukrainian_army_enters_minefield_in_bakhmut/

Footage of a mass casualty event and casevac.

Warning: Clear drone footage of a Ukrainian stepping out of a Bradley right onto a landmine, losing a leg.

Understatement.  A guy blew off his foot before that.

That was tough to watch.  Especially because it is clear the soldiers didn't know how to handle the situation.  Best they could come up with was shooting at the ground.

The mine density there was intense.  That one patch of disturbed earth that the guys HOPED would be free of mines took out two that we saw.  That's at least 2 mines in one square meter.  That's intense.

Why were the infantry disembarked here?  That's what I want to know.  If they were the dismounts from the burned up Bradley, they should have stuck close to it.  Instead they wandered into the middle of Hell.

31 minutes ago, masc said:

Edit: Just noticed the title says Bakhmut but the video features Bradleys. Either the title is wrong, the 47th Brigade is spread over multiple fronts, relocated, or aren't the only ones with Bradleys. The one at the end has a 3/7 or 37 marking and 371 as well, but I assume that's an individual/platoon designation like Wehrmacht AFVs had instead of a larger unit.

This is absolutely the 47th, so it should not be Bakhmut.  I doubt they split up the brigade and I've also not seen any evidence of them being in Bakhmut.  Plus, where Ukraine is operating now is well behind Wagner's previous frontline so there shouldn't be this sort of minefield to negotiate, I would think.

Can someone remind me what Bustov's YouTube channel?  It would be good to see the original post.

Steve

 

[A Canadian Cat]

21 minutes ago, cesmonkey said:

Sputnik link deleted

It's 10:20pm in Moscow already. Did it happen or was this from last week?

[The_MonkeyKing]

Dreadful video of a Ukrainian Bradley unit being stuck in a minefield. Lots of lost vehicles and legs.

No idea what time this is from.

source: https://twitter.com/SomeGumul/status/1673403477706285064

 

[kluge]

9 minutes ago, IanL said:

It's 10:20pm in Moscow already. Did it happen or was this from last week?

Approx 20 minutes ago, judging from initial reports.

 

Quote

Putin says organisers of rebellion to be 'brought to justice'

Putin said in a statement the "organisers of this rebellion will be brought to justice" and that the rebellion was "criminal activity which is aimed at weakening the country".

In a blistering statement, Putin said that "any kind of blackmail is doomed to failure" and that the mutiny leaders "wanted our society to be fragmented". 

He thanked the Russian public for its "support, patriotism and solidarity" since the rebellion, as well as thanking Belarus's Lukashenko for a peaceful resolution. 

"Virtually the entirety of Russian society... was united by its responsibility to defend their homeland," Putin said. 

He also thanked Wagner officials who "took the right decision to stop and go back to prevent bloodshed".

Putin added that most Wagner mercenaries are "patriots" who were "used" by organisers of the rebellion.

The uprising was "doomed to fail" and that "its organisers, even though they lost their sense of right and wrong, couldn't have failed to realise that," he continued. 

Putin also claimed Ukraine was involved in the weekend's events and calls the revolt "revenge for their failed counteroffensive".

https://news.sky.com/story/russia-ukraine-latest-putin-wagner-prigozhin-belarus-war-live-updates-12541713?postid=6101839#liveblog-body

 

[Huba]

Putin's speech In a nutshell:

And response:

[Battlefront.com]

6 hours ago, cesmonkey said:

Interesting summary from Russian Telegrammer Two Majors about Russia's challenges for the counter-battery fight:
 

And again about the counter-battery fight.

Having summarized some information from the fronts, we will draw our subjective conclusion.

1. It's hard. Guess what, you have to learn it. Shoot from an artillery gun. This is an extremely difficult process, especially if the enemy is also hitting you. Judging by the number of requests for "shooting tables" from front-line soldiers for different types of guns from all sectors of the front, not all artillerymen have the required level of training, which does not negate their prowess and contribution to the SVO. Firing tables can be found at the Secretariat of the Two Majors, and EVACU is strength. And all the other artillery schools, so vehemently reduced first by Serdyukov, and then by Shoigu.

2. We need appropriate counter-battery firing systems.We have "Zoos", but not very many yet. They are expensive. The enemy has many American ones.

3. Drones are needed to track the results in each artillery regiment and art unit. Realizing that 90 percent of the wounded and killed in this war - as a result of artillery actions, we help artillery regiments and subunits with drones. There is also Romanov's instruction on how to quickly get stitched good and even large drones from the Ministry of Defense. But it is necessary to push through the command (they are afraid to sign).

4. Wear of trunks.When the gun barrel wears out, it starts to hit inaccurately. It is necessary to make new guns, barrels, repair old ones. And do not lie that this should not be done.

5. Precision munitions . They say that Krasnopol is worth its weight in gold. And where they say from the TV that it was "Krasnopol" - it was not them. And a bunch of regular ones. They just show the final frame, without a long transformation of the area into a lunar landscape.

6. Range of guns. In terms of performance characteristics, it is higher for NATO guns. The same M777 hit further and more accurately.

In general terms, yes. Ask the opinion of the gods of war in the smoking room. In smoking rooms, they usually learn a lot. And the lesson plan is bull****.

Well, this is all pretty nice to read!  It checks out with everything we know of, including the decline in artillery proficiency due to losses.

The comment about the Kransnopol is interesting.  Basically, he's saying that they don't have any significant supply of Krasnopol, but instead are showing videos where the 50th dumb round finally manages to hit something.  We saw a lot of this, by both sides, earlier in the war.  Thing is Ukraine doesn't need to any more

Steve

[Beleg85]

13 minutes ago, The_MonkeyKing said:

No idea what time this is from.

source: https://twitter.com/SomeGumul/status/1673403477706285064

Yes, pretty tense, poor folks. Note it is from Butusov channel, not Russian drone though, so perhaps Ukrainians no longer hesitate to show scope of their efforts.

1 hour ago, Battlefront.com said:

've seen some commentary out there that suggests this was some brilliant plan of Luka to rebalance the power relationship with Russia.  I just don't see how that is the case.  These guys are a net liability, period.

Honestly, I am shocked by the commentary I'm seeing from "experts".  They seem to be mesmerized by the theater as performed on the stage and are talking about only that.  They aren't even trying to look behind the curtain, yet that is where the real show is.

It was not brilliant plan, however we now know things can get pretty tense in Russia very fast and pretty unpredicatable. In this triangle Putin - Prig- Luka, the Belarussian has role of Marcus Lepidus- the third, weakest guy, who was  invited to share power precisely because he is relatively harmless. Now, what if Kremlin will wish, perhaps soon, to remove Prigozhin in something akin to Operation Strom-333? Can hipothetically Prigozhin promise concessions and security to Luka as paymant for some transaction? I also find it very unlikely, but given how unpredictable modern Russian power system proved to be, I wouldn't exclude anything right now. A lot depends on real support for Prig among Russian population and depth of changes in Russian MoD.

Edited June 26, 2023 by Beleg85

[Beleg85]

So... "most important speech in latest history of Russia"  lasted 5 mins...and ofc.nothing special come out of it. The only interesting thing is that Putin now should proceed with meeting of joined defences agencies. Even Zolotov is there.

They may decide to do something against Wganerites in the end.

Also, my very limited knowledge of official Russian may nontheless suggest "going to Belarus" has some strong medieval vibes, and synonymous with banishing from the kingdom for time being, perhaps for long time. Also note this thrope also means they would not be protected by law and destroyed if try to go back in any way. It may be wrong feeling, though, and they will be still used actively by Russian state.

Edited June 26, 2023 by Beleg85

[RandomCommenter]

https://on.ft.com/46qBb6X

‘Traitors must be shot’: Vladimir Putin’s truce with Wagner teeters on edge

(sorry, the FT article is behind a paywall but the gist of it is below).

    Please use the sharing tools found via the share button at the top or side of articles. Copying articles to share with others is a breach of FT.com T&Cs and Copyright Policy. Email licensing@ft.com to buy additional rights. Subscribers may share up to 10 or 20 articles per month using the gift article service. More information can be found at https://www.ft.com/tour.
   https://www.ft.com/content/8c247cb9-c14b-4fd6-94d6-300655c35c1e

 Armed Wagner fighters roam Voronezh in southern Russia eating shawarmas. Yevgeny Prigozhin is back to ranting against the defence ministry — while treason charges against the warlord still stand.

Two days after the Kremlin struck a deal to end Wagner’s armed uprising, the truce is teetering on the edge, with growing questions in Russia over whether the bargain will hold.

The Kremlin has seized billions of roubles in cash and gold bars from Prigozhin, squeezing Wagner’s finances. But some fervent loyalists of President Vladimir Putin are proposing even more unforgiving solutions.

“I am fiercely convinced that in wartime, traitors must be shot,” said Andrei Gurulyov, a prominent pro-war MP, on state television on Sunday. “Whatever fairy tales they tell you, the only way out for Prigozhin is a bullet in the head.”

The first indication of the deal’s fragility came on Monday, when state newswires cited sources saying that — contrary to Kremlin spokesperson Dmitry Peskov’s promises — Prigozhin was still under investigation for organising the mutiny.

The leak suggested Russia wanted to maintain pressure on Prigozhin, who resurfaced hours later in a voice message and claimed his mutiny had been a simple act of self-preservation. The insurrection was to stop Wagner being dismantled on July 1, he said, and contrary to reports, his fighters would not be joining the regular armed forces.
 

I know that Steve and others on here are convinced that Prigozhin or whoever is pulling his strings "won" and that we will see Shoigu and Gerasimov replaced and Putin reduced to a puppet. Time will tell.

In my personal opinion, it is equally likely that Putin will renege on the deal and give Prigozhin a nice cup of tea or push him out a window.

 

And the point I want to make is the following - if this happens, it will demonstrate one more time for those blind enough or deluded enough to have not got the memo yet - that there is absolutely no point negotiating with or concluding a deal with Putin, Lavrov, Peskov and the rest of their murder gang.

I hope that the coming double-cross of Prigozhin will end forever any talk of the usual suspects in the West who suggest that Ukraine should negotiate some sort of "end of the war" with this gang. The war can only end either with the utter defeat of Russia or some kind of negotiated settlement with whatever the new regime will be after Putin's downfall. Negotiating with Putin's gang is literally a waste of time.

[DesertFox]

analyze the situation...

n

 

 

[kevinkin]

So Wagner was "invited" into Belarus. Another story from an hour ago: 

https://news.yahoo.com/prigozhin-already-started-brand-threat-185126688.html?fr=yhssrp_catchall

 

Edited June 26, 2023 by kevinkin

[kluge]

7 minutes ago, DesertFox said:

analyze the situation...

shoigu looks like he does not want to be in that room 

[cesmonkey]

Girkin:
https://t.me/strelkovii/5754

Quote

I haven't seen anything more pitiful in the performance of a man remotely resembling the president. All - well done. Everyone did a great job, it's time to issue orders and make Shoigu, finally, just marshals. The confusion continues.

 

[A Canadian Cat]

53 minutes ago, kluge said:

Putin said in a statement the "organisers of this rebellion will be brought to justice" and that the rebellion was "criminal activity which is aimed at weakening the country".

The palace intrigue continues. I wasn't really expecting Putin to be back in charge. Right now it kinda looks like Prig will regret stopping.

[A Canadian Cat]

4 minutes ago, kluge said:

shoigu looks like he does not want to be in that room

Doesn't he have something else he is supposed to be doing?

[TheVulture]

3 minutes ago, IanL said:

Doesn't he have something else he is supposed to be doing?

He was called away at short notice from giving Utkin a good kicking in the basement,  and wants to get back to it. 

[kevinkin]

Maybe if the senior bass is brushed aside, lower level command will have to stand on their own two feet and practice mission command. That should be fun to watch.  

[kluge]

So Putin mentioned that the organizers are to be punished (which includes Prig) but also thanked those who made the decision to turn around (which includes Prig).

Reading between the lines a bit, this suggests to me that Putin's remarks are directed at the government faction that aided and abetted Prig more so than Prig himself. Prig is taken down a few notches and left off the hook for now, to be dealt with later.

Does Putin have enough power to purge that faction? That's the question on my mind.