How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?

[kevinkin]

A bit on the China angle today:

https://news.yahoo.com/xi-bet-putin-looks-even-095136796.html

Xi : "That ****ing idiot. He's starting to turn the evil axis into a laughing stock"

“This chaotic sort of conclusion can only be seen as a loss for Beijing,” said Raffaello Pantucci, a senior fellow at the S. Rajaratnam School of International Studies in Singapore. “It highlights the fragility of its most important partner on the world stage, it highlights the weakness of a man President Xi had sought to show himself close to and, if it leads to the end of the war, then it will free up some Western assets to refocus on China.”

[danfrodo]

I was joking earlier when I suggested Shoigu & Gerasimov should make a move w MOD.  It was just some happy wishful thinking.  Too bad though, I think MOD would probably be quite happy to quit the war and go home and get stinking rich 'rebuilding' Russian military that was 'ruined by betrayer Putin'.

So maybe Putin is backstabbing Prig?  Good, idiot deserves it.  If Prig gets angry & decides to take moscow now, I highly doubt Prig would get anywhere near the support he got the first time.  And Putin would be more ready.  He's sooooooo dead. 

And sounds like some good news from the front.  RU moving up reserves while UKR continues grinding RU defenses down.

 

[kevinkin]

Middle of the road take:

https://www.msn.com/en-us/video/news/putin-is-in-pretty-good-shape-after-mutiny-council-on-foreign-relations/vi-AA1d19mB?t=0

Summary: Putin is in pretty good shape, but has taken a hit internationally. Internally, it's batten down the hatches and full speed ahead. 

[akd]

Prigozhin remains defiant and defends his actions, but reiterates it was not aimed at “top leadership” of country, and walks back more extensive goals for “justice” to simply preserving Wagner:

EDIT: better summary from Dmitri:

 

Edited June 26, 2023 by akd

[DesertFox]

Boom!

 

 

[dan/california]

28 minutes ago, Beleg85 said:

Worth to introduce to large audience the person of Aleksey Dyumin. This is background persona of this drama for now, but long ago some russologists viewed him as good candidate for Putin successor/replacement.

Guy has excellent history, not that different than Putin's own in early stage. Was the deputy head of SBP (one of personal security agencies), later deputy chief of GRU, one of chiefs of successfull and almost bloodless (see some paralells...?) takeover of Crimea. Was briefly chief of staff of Army, now serve as governor of Tula. So he served in intelligence, military and as civilian governor, very "Roman" career. And realtively neutral, too.

He was always well groomed in political terms of Putinist Russia, loyal and not overly ambitious (or not showing it), but that supposed neutrality and bleakness was the case also with young Putin- and may play huge role if bulldogs start to tear the rug. Not saying he put any strings in this show by himself, but since power at Kremlin is visibly shaken now, worth to read some more about him, and several other big fishes o this tank.

https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/in-moscows-shadows/id1510124746?i=1000610187817

https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/in-moscows-shadows/id1510124746?i=1000616510503

Galliotti has done a couple of excellent pods recently about the people one layer down in the Russian system he thinks could rise to power if there is a controlled process to replace Putin instead of chaos. Dyumin was one of the ones profiled.

edit: I would also love to see some profiles of the more competent colonels in the Russian military, just in case.

 

Edited June 26, 2023 by dan/california

[A Canadian Cat]

2 hours ago, Grigb said:

Misk is just 8 hours away from Moscow by car (AFAIR, 5-6 if you drive fast).

More like 12-14 hours - someone parked some dump trucks across the highway and dug up the road surface in a few places.

[kevinkin]

6 minutes ago, akd said:

Prigozhin remains defiant and defends his actions, but reiterates it was not aimed at “top leadership” of country:

Thanks for the post. A key statement:  "When the first assault detachment approached Moscow, it became obvious that a lot of blood would be shed, so we felt that a "demonstration of what we wanted to do was sufficient" - Head of Wagner PMC Prigozhin

Move toward Moscow was a demonstration that could not be made sitting in Rostov. Sure, if there was zero resistance, they might have inched forward until they received a reaction. 

[dan/california]

 

Quote

 

https://www.nytimes.com/2023/06/25/us/politics/wagner-future-ukraine-war.html

The group played an outsize role in the campaign to take Bakhmut, Moscow’s one major battlefield victory this year. The loss of the mercenary army could hurt Russia’s ambitions in the Ukraine war.

 

I think the primary theater of Russian politics moves back to the battlefield in Ukraine now. If Ukraine can cut the land bridge and inflict a real unspinnable defeat, then that will be strike two for Putin, with thirty more pitches coming in at once. If Ukraine can't do something significant by the end of August then everything might manage to stabilize at a higher level of misery.

[Battlefront.com]

4 hours ago, Pete Wenman said:

Excuse the language - but this is funny and perhaps surprisingly accurate

 

P

Been a while since I've seen a new one of these!  A good use of it

Steve

[dan/california]

 

Quote

 

https://thehill.com/homenews/administration/4055273-biden-wont-make-it-easier-for-ukraine-to-join-nato/#:~:text=President Biden on Saturday said,easier%2C” Biden told reporters.

President Biden on Saturday said he won’t make it easier for Ukraine to join NATO, adding that the country at war with Russia has to meet the requirements to be a member.

“They got to meet the same standards. So, I’m not going to make it easier,” Biden told reporters. “I think they’ve done everything relating to demonstrating the ability to coordinate militarily, but there’s a whole issue of is their system secure? Is it noncorrupt? Does it meet all the standards … every other nation in NATO does.”

 

This is a case study in in how to throw away a hard fought victory. I cannot adequately express how angry it makes me. 

[Sojourner]

7 minutes ago, dan/california said:

 

This is a case study in in how to throw away a hard fought victory. I cannot adequately express how angry it makes me. 

Glass half full kind of thing. Intellectually, it was the correct thing to say. As much as I would like to see Ukraine admitted to NATO, they have to meet the same standards.

ETA: He didn't say he would make it any harder either.

Edited June 26, 2023 by Sojourner

[dan/california]

26 minutes ago, Sojourner said:

Glass half full kind of thing. Intellectually, it was the correct thing to say. As much as I would like to see Ukraine admitted to NATO, they have to meet the same standards.

They have beaten the Russian Army to a pulp with our thirty year old leftovers, and actually indicted a justice  of their supreme court for corruption. Two accomplishments The U.S. has notably not achieved.

Edited June 26, 2023 by dan/california

[Eddy]

A quick analysis from RUSI about the Prigozhin mutiny/coup/thing

Prigozhin’s Rebellion: What We Discovered, and What We Still Need to Know | Royal United Services Institute (rusi.org)

What Putin got right

• stopped the situation getting out of control

What Putin got wrong

• failed to prevent the escalation between Prig and Shoigu
• made decisions without being fully informed i.e. surrounded by 'Yes' men
• misjudged the situation

What do we know

• No mass defections. As FSB/GRU/MOD are such top down organisations any successful future uprising will need the support of senior intelligence/MOD people
• Wagner is likely to be disbanded
• Official negotiations with Prig unlikely to be as appeared
• The role of Lukashenko has been much inflated

Future

• Shoigu's position is assured, for now
• Unsung people will be rewarded (mentions a number of people)
• There will be a shake up of sorts

[kimbosbread]

33 minutes ago, Sojourner said:

Glass half full kind of thing. Intellectually, it was the correct thing to say. As much as I would like to see Ukraine admitted to NATO, they have to meet the same standards.

ETA: He didn't say he would make it any harder either.

And this is how nuclear proliferation happens. Well, this war means its gonna happen anyways. Winnie the Flu is gonna be real angry when there are multiple nuked up countries in East Asia.

[dan/california]

All of a sudden the Germans are the ones making sense? Is Pistorious in line for Scholz's job? Or Scholz has decided that getting out of the way on Ukraine to keep his job? Butschi, please explain?

[Battlefront.com]

My take on this is things are still unsettled and being negotiated, but it seems a major decision was made to keep Shoigu in his position for now.  However, we have to remember that most of what we are seeing is theater, not reality.

The most important thing for all parties, including Prig and whomever he conspired with, is that Putin's regime doesn't collapse.  It's been dealt a serious blow with Wagner's moves and further signs of it being undermined are not in the collective best interests.  Because of this I don't think we'll see any more outward signs of change (e.g. removing Shoigu) right now, even if they have been agreed to in private.

I think what is going on now is that there's been a quid pro quo to maintain stability.  To keep the public image of Putin's regime as in control and "victor" in the weekend's events, there will be no immediate public admission of high profile changes.  To keep the RU Nats that support Prig/Wagner from going nuts, Prig is staying in Russia, is not muzzled, and Wagner doesn't really change what it is doing.  This leaves RU Nats that support Girkin's position FUMING, but they apparently don't have a significant seat at the table, so they aren't perceived as a major threat.  At least not yet.

In short, most of what we are seeing is theater and can not be trusted at face value.  The "sources" of information within the Kremlin are either deliberately spreading disinformation to support the performance or are themselves being used by someone working from a script.

This is backroom intrigue of the highest level of Russian politics.  We're not meant to know what's going on.  As a result we won't be able to trust just about anything we read, no matter how credible and previously well informed the source is.  The people who DO know are few in number and have NO interest in telling the truth at this stage.

Steve

[Beleg85]

Belarussian TG's note that in Osipoviche near Mohylev Russians started to build a large camp:

In Belarus, they began to build camps to accommodate the fighters of the Wagner PMC. "Layout" confirmed the construction of a camp in Osipovichi, Mogilev region for 8,000 fighters, 200 km from the border with Ukraine. There will be several camps. In the Mogilev region of Belarus, the construction of a military camp for mercenaries of the Wagner PMC is already in full swing, the forestry of the region told Layout. According to the interlocutor, there will be several camps, one of them will be located near the town of Osipovichi. “We are working, we are already working today. Tomorrow, before lunch, the task is [to build],” said the source of the “Layout”. He added that the area of the camp will be 24 thousand square meters, it will be designed for eight thousand beds.

A source of Nestka, close to the leadership of the Mogilev region, confirmed that the authorities were instructed to build a camp for PMCs in the region. The information that the mercenaries will be sent to Belarus is also confirmed by the relatives of the members of the Wagner group. One of the relatives, referring to her friend, said that the Wagner PMC units remaining in Rostov-on-Don would be sent to Belarus. Another interlocutor of the publication told Layout that her husband, who was in Rostov on Saturday, informed her about being sent to Belarus “most likely”, but did not get in touch again. Also, three participants in chats with relatives said that they received similar messages from relatives, but in a conversation with a Nestka correspondent, they mentioned that they did not know for sure whether the units were heading towards Belarus. One of the interlocutors said that his relative was "near Rostov" by this hour.

 

 

[dan/california]

2 minutes ago, Battlefront.com said:

This leaves RU Nats that support Girkin's position FUMING, but they apparently don't have a significant seat at the table, so they aren't perceived as a major threat.  At least not yet.

Leaving Girkin running around loose seems a way to all but guarantee a coup attempt from his faction as soon as Ukraine wins a major victory. The man is highly motivated and not stupid, deranged, but not stupid. To continue the 1917 analogy, the Bolsheviks were just one minor party among many, Until they weren't

[Battlefront.com]

9 hours ago, Letter from Prague said:

https://news.yahoo.com/russian-agents-threat-family-made-204246993.html

Then there's this article ... but I mean, what did they expect?

Man the coup seems as badly planned as the invasion.

Thanks for that.  Well, this is an interesting angle that I've only touched on briefly.

We have to remember that nobody goes "rogue" in Russia because it's the surest way to have things like everybody you've ever known meet some sort of bad circumstances.  Murder, loss of employment, arrest, harassment, etc.  This is traditional Russian behavior going back for... 100s of years?  For sure it was taken to a new level by the Soviets and all indications are that the Putin regime has made it even more efficient.

So, the fact that Prig did what he did further indicates that he at least THOUGHT he had enough support within Putin's security apparatus to proceed with this weekend's events.  Prig is not a stupid man, so the assurances he had must have been pretty damned good or he would not have done what he did.

If he did stop things because of threats against his family, as the article outlines, then either Prig's protection was not as sure as he thought *or* he was betrayed by those who said everything would be fine.

The theory I've maintained since Saturday is that he was betrayed, but it is possible his guarantors over promised or were themselves outmaneuvered.

As I've been saying, the only thing we can be sure of is that this weekend did not play out as most people are saying it did.

Steve

[FancyCat]

3 minutes ago, dan/california said:

Leaving Girkin running around loose seems a way to all but guarantee a coup attempt from his faction as soon as Ukraine wins a major victory. The man is highly motivated and not stupid, deranged, but not stupid. To continue the 1917 analogy, the Bolsheviks were just one minor party among many, Until they weren't

His faction, didn't they get rid of alongside the other Donbas warlords and leaders before 2022?

https://twitter.com/wartranslated/status/1673346277814198275?s=19

Let's think about the implications that Wagner might have made a alliance with Luka. The man is very savvy, having balanced the EU and Russia without going the way of Ukraine. Say if Wagner didn't get disbanded, but is allowed to exist, and continue activities, it might be better to think Putin has indeed lost some control over it, and maybe therefore Luka has gained some use of them.

[Battlefront.com]

13 minutes ago, Beleg85 said:

Belarussian TG's note that in Osipoviche near Mohylev Russians started to build a large camp:

In Belarus, they began to build camps to accommodate the fighters of the Wagner PMC. "Layout" confirmed the construction of a camp in Osipovichi, Mogilev region for 8,000 fighters, 200 km from the border with Ukraine. There will be several camps. In the Mogilev region of Belarus, the construction of a military camp for mercenaries of the Wagner PMC is already in full swing, the forestry of the region told Layout. According to the interlocutor, there will be several camps, one of them will be located near the town of Osipovichi. “We are working, we are already working today. Tomorrow, before lunch, the task is [to build],” said the source of the “Layout”. He added that the area of the camp will be 24 thousand square meters, it will be designed for eight thousand beds.

A source of Nestka, close to the leadership of the Mogilev region, confirmed that the authorities were instructed to build a camp for PMCs in the region. The information that the mercenaries will be sent to Belarus is also confirmed by the relatives of the members of the Wagner group. One of the relatives, referring to her friend, said that the Wagner PMC units remaining in Rostov-on-Don would be sent to Belarus. Another interlocutor of the publication told Layout that her husband, who was in Rostov on Saturday, informed her about being sent to Belarus “most likely”, but did not get in touch again. Also, three participants in chats with relatives said that they received similar messages from relatives, but in a conversation with a Nestka correspondent, they mentioned that they did not know for sure whether the units were heading towards Belarus. One of the interlocutors said that his relative was "near Rostov" by this hour.

 

 

Interesting!

I have to say that one of the few things from this controlled narrative I believe is that a portion of Wagner is going to Belarus.  It is really the only way to not publicly undermine Putin's regime while at the same time keeping Wagner doing things to benefit Russia.  As Grigb put it, Belarus is really just a part of Russia now and so effectively nothing of substance is changing, but publicly it looks like Wagner is being punished. 

Girkin's faction of the RU Nats obviously sees it for what it is, but they obviously aren't in a position to do anything about it.  Prig's faction of the RU Nats might not be smart enough to understand the nuances, but they are smart enough to see their heroes aren't hanging from piano wire.  Quite the contrary, they are still employed.

This makes total sense.

Steve

[dan/california]

Read the whole thing.

[Armorgunner]

20 hours ago, kraze said:

Easy. Chechens are basically the only putin's personal terrorist army left. They are to terrorize civilians, they are the only ones willing to do it in Russia* and they have no military training to fight somebody armed with a gun.

Every russian is afraid of Chechens because they managed to defeat russian army twice over the course of just 5 years - so they kinda have that default "+2 to intimidation" skill by just being Chechen.

Irony is that I have no idea how anyone even thought they will be ever to battle Wagner, the armed guys.

 *like actually terrorize, e.g. by stuffing a bottle up their asshole - actually happened, none of that pussy OMOH that can only beat some chicks and arrest a few old ladies, but instantly disperses come some resistance.

Kadyrovs goat loving Tik Tok battalion, what could they have done to stop the Vodka marsch to Moscow? They only put out TikTok videos where they shoot at traffic lights. And videos, where they pretend to be in combat situations, but are not!

They are not the Chechen 110% fighters who opposed the Russians in the Chechen wars. Kadyrovs goatlovers, are Russian army. Nothing else! Exept they dont go to combat, they just talk the talk on Tik Tok, and love goats.  

[Beleg85]

45 minutes ago, Battlefront.com said:

Interesting!

I have to say that one of the few things from this controlled narrative I believe is that a portion of Wagner is going to Belarus.  It is really the only way to not publicly undermine Putin's regime while at the same time keeping Wagner doing things to benefit Russia.  As Grigb put it, Belarus is really just a part of Russia now and so effectively nothing of substance is changing, but publicly it looks like Wagner is being punished. 

It's double- edged axe for Luka. If he will be able to host half-sovereign warlord and court him properly, in longer term he may have serious card in his sleeve he did not posess before. On other side, mercs in Belarus is ideal for Kremlin to distance itself from Wagner and ready military force in case of some turmoil in Belarus itself.

Families are also very important factor here. Will they in majority move to Belarus with whole enterpraise, or stay in the country? Former solution would basically made Wagner self-contained military diaspora. I mean, one would think that phenomena like prisoner soldiers, military settlers and lancknechts travelling with entire families are only met on pages of historical books, not in XXI century Europe- but Russia may surprise us again.