How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?

[pintere]

14 minutes ago, Sojourner said:

So, what if this so called insurrection is a bit of theater to accomplish exactly that, and open a new front in the north, without unduly raising eyebrows?  I think a tip-off might be Prigozhin's frequent use of the phrase, "all according to plan." Putin has been trying to get Lukashenko to join the party, and Luka's  been reluctant probably due to fear of retaliation. But now Luka has nukes, so that's no longer an excuse. Putin looking weak for backing down to Prig will be quickly forgotten if he can roll into Kiev in a matter of days.

There’s a million other ways he could’ve done that which wouldn’t make the world hold their breath for another revolution in Russia. 

[LongLeftFlank]

11 minutes ago, cesmonkey said:

 

Yeah, Western Putinoids are already spinning this as a nefarious plot by the "Five Eyes". How else can they possibly make sense of it?

****

"Hey, ya forgot to turn off the World!"* 

 

Edited June 25, 2023 by LongLeftFlank
* I know a bunch of folks here get this reference....

[Taliessyn]

I have a fantastical left field theory that the objective of this “coup but not coup” was actually successful in its aims.

• What if the intention was to communicate very clearly the limits of Putins political power in a dramatic way - a succinct message to the man himself about the consequences of continuing the death spiral he is intent on steering Russia into?

• What if there actually was sufficiently widespread, embedded support - but no desire to affect the instability of a full blown transfer of power?

Supremely unlikely since the plotters would be in immense danger, but also an intriguing idea, and one that can be tested by watching Putins behaviour in the next few weeks. If it’s business as usual then that’s that, but if there is a slow rollback on some of the insanity? 

Again, most probably complete fantasy, - but I have such delight in thinking of Putin being cowed and having to play some of the puppet he has turned others into for so long.
And nothing about this makes sense. Prig is a shrewd operator. He must know the danger he is in. Forever. 

[LongLeftFlank]

Interesting comments here, though source essay is in Russian. Echoes Galeev's views, though somewhat less 'academic':

Rest of the summary thread...

All the hyper repressions rolled out since Feb. 2022 have actually primed Russians for a national project more aligned with Prigozhin's extreme militarism than Putin's mix, which still finds room for the old elites and market economics.

The breaking point for Prigozhin was Putin's orders on June 13 to dissolve Wagner Group into the army by subordinating volunteer units to the Defense Ministry. 

Baunov describes Prigozhin's evolving role as Kremlin outsourced 'dirty worker', to invasion figure, to public figure scoring political successes. An erstwhile goal to become Putin's heir led him to target Shoigu, who then enjoyed that spot.

Baunov says that Prigozhin's goal after starting the armed insurrection became to win emergency powers from Putin without formally removing him from office: to replace him, not merely displace him (Putin is too sacred actually to remove.

Tis a story as old as time: hardened, emboldened men returned home from the front to find what they feel is an ungrateful nation.

Baunov says Prigozhin's long interview on the eve of the insurrection, where he trashed the invasion's planning and rationale, was actually an offer to Putin to "march" with him and pin it all on Shoigu and other elites. Putin didn't take the deal.

What happens now w Russia's War Party is unclear. Prigozhin decided to convert his battlefield credibility into political clout w/o waiting for the war to end, knowing how the Kremlin likes to bump off its wartime assets once they're no longer needed. Monopoly on violence, RIP.

The punchline for Galeev's latest thread here, for those interested....

 Heavy hangs the head that wears the crown...

 

Edited June 25, 2023 by LongLeftFlank

[Battlefront.com]

6 minutes ago, Taliessyn said:

• What if the intention was to communicate very clearly the limits of Putins political power in a dramatic way - a succinct message to the man himself about the consequences of continuing the death spiral he is intent on steering Russia into?

• What if there actually was sufficiently widespread, embedded support - but no desire to affect the instability of a full blown transfer of power?

That's a possibility that's been nibbled at a few times in the last dozen pages.  Stability is the common goal for all of these players, no matter how much power they want for themselves.  It seems they understand that they risk everything if Russia goes into civil war mode, so nobody wants to push it too far.  Not even Putin, which is probably why he settled on a very risky future instead of trying to fight this out.  As we've pointed out since the start of this war, Putin's options to flee Russia suck and he knows it.

Steve

[Jiggathebauce]

Gonna float a theory here, the arrangement as we understand it between Putin, Luka and Prig fits all parties and fits their belief that it's a lose situation for the others. Please shoot this to pieces if I'm misreading. Mostly this hinges on one key assumption about Luka so I will start there. 

Luka wanted to have the preeminence that Putin has had and that he has not. He has been in the shadows as the junior partner and the events of the last few days were his best chance. Putin looks weak  and is much weaker than anyone thought, and brokering peace between Wagner and Putin puts him back in the game, revitalizes his career, so to speak. And with Prig onside, maybe he uses them to shield himself against Putin. 

For Prig, the deal is a chance for him to save his skin because he bit off more than he can chew, but now he can play Luka and Putin against each other.

For Putin, sending Prig to Belarus allows him to rebuild his authority and credibility, while offloading his rebellious boyar to another Liege. 

 

Is this in any way a valid read? It's the one I would make if this was a game of thrones/house of cards thriller.

 

[Taliessyn]

33 minutes ago, Battlefront.com said:

That's a possibility that's been nibbled at a few times in the last dozen pages.  Stability is the common goal for all of these players, no matter how much power they want for themselves.  It seems they understand that they risk everything if Russia goes into civil war mode, so nobody wants to push it too far.  Not even Putin, which is probably why he settled on a very risky future instead of trying to fight this out.  As we've pointed out since the start of this war, Putin's options to flee Russia suck and he knows it.

Steve

I think a useful metric to test this theory will be consequence. Putin has bowed and disposed of many an oligarch in his time, but it feels like something has definitely shifted in the power dynamic. 

Soly looks positively restrained here: 

 

The test will be the weeks and months ahead I imagine - by all reasonable measure it should be relatively easy to effect vengeance against the mutineer.

It seems out of the realm of possibility that this can go unpunished - unless the Sword of Damocles isn’t hanging exactly where people expect.

[Battlefront.com]

Taking another stab at this because, well, because it's fun

1.  Putin did not orchestrate this in some way.  There is no scenario that I can imagine where Putin chose this over a host of other possible options.  Putin has never schemed a way into being humiliated, less powerful, and more vulnerable by choice.  Yet that is absolutely what happened.  So for me, any form of any theory that has any active role of Putin orchestrating this in any meaningful way should be put at the very bottom of a very tall pile of possibilities.

2.  There is no way that Prig did this without some buy-in from the FSB, probably MoD, and likely various "elites".  As we just saw, US Intelligence knew this was going to happen so it's a sure bet the FSB did.  Probably even before there was an actual plan in place, just talk.  They should have told Putin, but it seems Putin was caught completely unaware.  Putin getting the info and not doing anything with it because he doubted it is possible, though unlikely given Prig's public comments and obvious military potential.  Putin knowing about it and allowing it to play out is a version of #1 above and should be ruled out for now.

This means:

• at a minimum, FSB was involved even if it was hiding information from Putin for their own agenda.  But I doubt this because Prig would know the FSB would likely know about the plot so he would be unlikely to actually execute it without their cooperation. 
• Prig apparently had immediate access to non-Wagner military assets right from the start and possible coordination with MoD units that could have got in his way.  So it is very likely the MoD had some role in this and it too kept that info from Putin. 
• I find it difficult to believe that high level MoD and FSB officers (which is what would be needed for this) would have acted without some assurances of political cover in case things went sideways.  This means elites that were not happy with Putin but too powerful to be murdered.

3.  Prig was not in danger of losing his life or his money.  His cooperation would be critical to a smooth transition for Wagner personnel and the continuation (if not expansion of) Russia's foreign policy priorities.  Prig had a lot to negotiate with and was likely to come out very well.  He is a mercenary so all the Kremlin would have to do is name the right price and everybody would be happy with the result.

4.  Nobody thinks the war is being fought well, though they don't necessarily agree on the specifics.  What I think they can all agree with, though, is that Putin and his top MoD buddies are largely responsible for things going in the wrong direction.  Whether their expectations for improvement are even remotely realistic is not relevant as long as they think their ideas are better than Putin's.

5.  The players involved all care about living their lives in luxury and with a minimal fear of being murdered, arrested, or Impoverished.  They are all going to cover their own arses, which means none of them can trust each other even if their interests are 100% in alignment and 100% compatible with each other.

6.  Only an insane group would want to be the frontman for all the bad stuff Russia faces now and in the future.  Especially given The Hague is in the picture, possibly even a NATO intervention.  Some smarter ones are probably worried about China.  Which means it's unlikely anybody serious (i.e. not a puppet) would want the job of President.  Plus, Russia is theoretically a democracy and that means elections, which are messy and time consuming.  Suspending the Russian Constitution to skip this step is not a good idea (see next point).

7.  Nobody in Russia's ruling power blocs have any interest in seeing Russia go into civil war.  Even significant fighting that is resolved quickly risks upsetting national stability, which would likely mean any victor would soon be facing insurmountable problems that put their fortunes and lives at risk.  In a really sick and twisted way, the best interests of the Russian people are being upheld by the most selfish, greedy, and ruthless bastards on Earth.  This, BTW, is the same logic that is hopefully going to keep nukes off the table.

 

I'm interested to see if anybody can poke holes in these three points.  To the degree they withstand scrutiny they help rule out a large number of possible scenarios.

 

Here's a scenario that is consistent with all of these things above and the events as they unfolded...

A coup is set up with powerful regime blocs, including high and mid level members of MoD, FSB, and oligarchs.  Their goal is to end/curb Putin's hitherto unchallenged Power Vertical, not to end the regime.  Putin himself is too well guarded, so a sort of Gorbachev scenario is too unpredictable and difficult to make work for them.  Instead, they get Prig on their team to do the dirty work.  But they don't like him or trust him, so it's a transactional deal at best.

On cue Prig does what Prig did.  He's wildly successful.  Maybe more so than the plotters anticipated, but honestly they should not have been surprised.  Coups are usually decided, one way or the other, within a few days.  Otherwise it seems to slip into civil war, which is something they absolutely do not want.  So I think it is safer to presume that things went well enough to plan for the coup plotters to have what they needed from Prig.

With Prig sitting in Rostov and on his way to Moscow with a force that very well could take (or at least cut off) Moscow the real powers behind the coup make an offer to Putin with the following outline:

1. Putin must not run for President in 2024 and further agrees to ensure a candidate of the plotter's choosing succeeds him
2. various powers previously exclusive to Putin are to now be under control of the plotters.  This includes appointments of key personnel
3. in exchange for this Prig is betrayed, Putin remains President for now, then in retirement lives a very rich life provided he keeps to himself

Prig is informed he no longer has partners in Moscow.  He is given an "accept or else" sort of offer:

1. stand down all active forces, call off expanding the military aspect of the coup
2. facilitate the orderly transition of Wagner members to the MoD who are deemed reasonably reliable
3. convince the hardcore Wagner members to go into exile in Belarus.  They will get paid and still serve Russia, but they are to follow orders or else
4. agree to go into exile in Belarus as well in exchange for keeping his life, money, and a lot of his previous Wagner powers.  As long as he plays nice he doesn't get assassinated, which Prig should be worried about because he knows who he is dealing with and that they know everything about him

That's really it.  The coup plotters got what they wanted from Putin without national instability, Prig is left high and dry, and the future of Russia is now decidedly in the hands of the plotters.

Thoughts?

Steve

[Battlefront.com]

1 hour ago, Jiggathebauce said:

Gonna float a theory here, the arrangement as we understand it between Putin, Luka and Prig fits all parties and fits their belief that it's a lose situation for the others. Please shoot this to pieces if I'm misreading. Mostly this hinges on one key assumption about Luka so I will start there. 

Luka wanted to have the preeminence that Putin has had and that he has not. He has been in the shadows as the junior partner and the events of the last few days were his best chance. Putin looks weak  and is much weaker than anyone thought, and brokering peace between Wagner and Putin puts him back in the game, revitalizes his career, so to speak. And with Prig onside, maybe he uses them to shield himself against Putin. 

For Prig, the deal is a chance for him to save his skin because he bit off more than he can chew, but now he can play Luka and Putin against each other.

For Putin, sending Prig to Belarus allows him to rebuild his authority and credibility, while offloading his rebellious boyar to another Liege. 

 

Is this in any way a valid read? It's the one I would make if this was a game of thrones/house of cards thriller.

 

IMHO VERY valid when viewed within the paradigm I just outlined above.

As with any detective plot, you should always ask "who stands to benefit"?  Let's do a quick check of the three public facing parties:

1.  Putin is neutered and humiliated, but keeps his life and riches

2.  Prig is neutered and humiliated, but keeps his life and riches

3.  Luka now has a murderous mercenary group within his country and new masters in Moscow that he might not like, but keeps his life and riches

Why would they all enter into an agreement that puts them in a worse position than before?  Why wouldn't Prig or Putin angle to come out on top?  Why would Luka willingly agree to a probable thorn in his side? 

The answer to the question "who stands to benefit?", therefore, is "none of these three".  Logically if it is not these guys, then it is someone else even if we can't see them right now for who they are.

This then answers the BIG question we've asked all day long... why would Prig stop short of achieving a historic successful coup and instead agree to exile?  Because the coup was successful, we just can't see it yet.

Steve

[dan/california]

1 hour ago, LongLeftFlank said:

Interesting comments here, though source essay is in Russian. Echoes Galeev's views, though somewhat less 'academic':

Rest of the summary thread...

All the hyper repressions rolled out since Feb. 2022 have actually primed Russians for a national project more aligned with Prigozhin's extreme militarism than Putin's mix, which still finds room for the old elites and market economics.

The breaking point for Prigozhin was Putin's orders on June 13 to dissolve Wagner Group into the army by subordinating volunteer units to the Defense Ministry. 

Baunov describes Prigozhin's evolving role as Kremlin outsourced 'dirty worker', to invasion figure, to public figure scoring political successes. An erstwhile goal to become Putin's heir led him to target Shoigu, who then enjoyed that spot.

Baunov says that Prigozhin's goal after starting the armed insurrection became to win emergency powers from Putin without formally removing him from office: to replace him, not merely displace him (Putin is too sacred actually to remove.

Tis a story as old as time: hardened, emboldened men returned home from the front to find what they feel is an ungrateful nation.

Baunov says Prigozhin's long interview on the eve of the insurrection, where he trashed the invasion's planning and rationale, was actually an offer to Putin to "march" with him and pin it all on Shoigu and other elites. Putin didn't take the deal.

What happens now w Russia's War Party is unclear. Prigozhin decided to convert his battlefield credibility into political clout w/o waiting for the war to end, knowing how the Kremlin likes to bump off its wartime assets once they're no longer needed. Monopoly on violence, RIP.

The punchline for Galeev's latest thread here, for those interested....

 Heavy hangs the head that wears the crown...

 

The whole Kamil thread is well worth your time. Also, why do people think it will be a better transition in a year or five when Putin dies of natural causes, and the Russian economy is even more wrecked? Meaning the hyena's will have to fight over ever less money.

[kimbosbread]

I view this from the other side. There are 3 possibilities, broadly:

1. Fake coup
2. Coup lost
3. Coup won

I agree that the (1) is unlikely. I think (2) is also unlikely for all the reasons that are discussed- Prigogine could have held Rostov indefinitely, and Moscow was there for the taking. (3) seems most likely. The mysteries are:

1. Why did Prigogine take a deal?
2. Why Belarus?

The explanation from Admin (coup won, with caveat as to some plotters not being winners) to me, at least has two flaws. First, let’s say Prigogine finds out he is betrayed. Why would Utkin and him not seize Moscow? They have Rostov as a fallback. They can form a breakaway region, stop the war in Ukraine immediately by cutting off supplies, and look like heroes to the rest of the world and have their own country. Second, why do you put a dangerous coup plotter and his army 350km from Moscow? Why not send them to Uganda or wherever their main base is in Africa, appopriately neutred?

My explanation is that the coup plotters (FSB and MOD elements included) won, Prigogine was not betrayed, and all have decided to keep Putin or a double on to take blame for the whole mess, and they definitely don’t want a civil war. Prigogine wants to be closer to Moscow, but far enough away that there is a fig leaf of Putin running things. The whole deal thing is similarly a fig leaf.

The flaw to me of my explanation is that betrayal is a great explanation, especially given how many Russian nationalists hate Prigogine. But Girkin agrees with me!

[chuckdyke]

Prig is not running Wagner according this blog. https://twitter.com/Gerashchenko_en/status/1672653350741893121?s=20

 

[Taliessyn]

Delving further into the realm of conspiracy, what if Wagner is not necessarily in exile, but in a convenient and “neutral” position in Belarus to serve as a “check” for the time being. A reminder? 

Further, Luka is shrewd, and I wouldn’t be surprised if the co-operation between him and prig runs deeper. Wagner presence helps reinforce his political situation in Belarus. He graduates from “Junior partner” Is there an angle for Luka here? 

Deep end for sure, but interesting hypotheticals. Not exactly occams razor I’ll admit, but so many opportunistic players who’s to say?

[dan/california]

35 minutes ago, Battlefront.com said:

IMHO VERY valid when viewed within the paradigm I just outlined above.

As with any detective plot, you should always ask "who stands to benefit"?  Let's do a quick check of the three public facing parties:

1.  Putin is neutered and humiliated, but keeps his life and riches

2.  Prig is neutered and humiliated, but keeps his life and riches

3.  Luka now has a murderous mercenary group within his country and new masters in Moscow that he might not like, but keeps his life and riches

Why would they all enter into an agreement that puts them in a worse position than before?  Why wouldn't Prig or Putin angle to come out on top?  Why would Luka willingly agree to a probable thorn in his side? 

The answer to the question "who stands to benefit?", therefore, is "none of these three".  Logically if it is not these guys, then it is someone else even if we can't see them right now for who they are.

This then answers the BIG question we've asked all day long... why would Prig stop short of achieving a historic successful coup and instead agree to exile?  Because the coup was successful, we just can't see it yet.

Steve

Kamil has an alternative theory that I rather like, Putin and Medvedev were supposed to be at this festival in St Petersburg this weekend. There was a  very special greeting planned for them. Either because they were warned, or random whatever they didn't show up. Prig had already set his piece of the plan in motion, and figured he had to proceed regardless of the failure of the first stage of the Plot. Prigs piece turned out to succeed beyond anyones wildest dreams, so he isn't dead, yet.

 

Edit: No one will be able to insult the plot of a bad novel ever again.

Second edit: Given the tone of the WaPo article, did the U.S. warn him?

Edited June 25, 2023 by dan/california

[Battlefront.com]

14 minutes ago, kimbosbread said:

The explanation from Admin (coup won, with caveat as to some plotters not being winners) to me, at least has two flaws. First, let’s say Prigogine finds out he is betrayed. Why would Utkin and him not seize Moscow? They have Rostov as a fallback. They can form a breakaway region, stop the war in Ukraine immediately by cutting off supplies, and look like heroes to the rest of the world and have their own country.

Always good to have someone kicking the tires!  Thanks.  But I think the two flaws you point out can be countered...

First, Prig with the proper backing could hold Rostov, for sure, but it becomes less certain without that backing.  Second, Prig is more of a businessman than he is a coup participant, so he is inherently flexible if a "better" deal is made.  Third, when the people you work with are also the ones that have a great track record of assassination (including in foreign countries perhaps years later) then the deal they offer is likely "better" than the alternative.  Which means even if Prig managed to extract a better deal from sitting in Rostov he would not likely to live to benefit from it. 

In short, Prig's co-plotters were always the ones who would ensure his personal safety, not his band of merry murderers.  Losing their support is bad enough, but pissing them off?  Yesh, not likely a good idea.

Pirg is 62.  He has probably has only a few years left of active "service" and maybe 10-15 to enjoy retirement.  Think of him as a worker being offered an early retirement package.  It probably isn't as good as staying on the job, but that's an alternative that is likely not viable any more.

14 minutes ago, kimbosbread said:

Second, why do you put a dangerous coup plotter and his army 350km from Moscow? Why not send them to Uganda or wherever their main base is in Africa, appopriately neutred?

First, because the plotters have to convince these guys to leave Russia without much fuss and offering Belarus (a Russian speaking neighbor) is more likely to achieve that than Uganda.  Second, the distance to Moscow is not relevant because they've been neutered in number and status.  Third, being in Belarus gives them a legitimate purpose inline with their core ethos, which is to protect Russia's interests.  Fourth, they very well might go to Uganda, Syria, Congo, or somewhere else AFTER they go to Belarus.  The point is to get them out of Russia NOW, worry about the details later.

14 minutes ago, kimbosbread said:

My explanation is that the coup plotters (FSB and MOD elements included) won, Prigogine was not betrayed, and all have decided to keep Putin or a double on to take blame for the whole mess, and they definitely don’t want a civil war. Prigogine wants to be closer to Moscow, but far enough away that there is a fig leaf of Putin running things. The whole deal thing is similarly a fig leaf.

This is possible, but I'm not so sure Prig would willingly go along to being sidelined like that.  Which means we're back to my theory that he was either betrayed.

14 minutes ago, kimbosbread said:

The flaw to me of my explanation is that betrayal is a great explanation, especially given how many Russian nationalists hate Prigogine. But Girkin agrees with me!

No matter what, it still comes down to someone other than Prig calling the shots.  Everything else is just a different version of that scenario.

Steve

[Battlefront.com]

34 minutes ago, chuckdyke said:

Prig is not running Wagner according this blog. https://twitter.com/Gerashchenko_en/status/1672653350741893121?s=20

 

It is pretty much established that Utkin runs Wagner and Prig is more-or-less the public face of it.  However, it is easier to refer to Prig because of that fact.

So little is known about Utkin I don't anticipate we'll have a quick answer as to what happens to him in all of this.  It is quite possible that Utkin was more aware of how this would play out than Prig.  Hell, maybe Utkin plotted with the others to get rid of Prig and reshape Wagner.  Since Utkin is not in the public eye, the others (including Putin) would be more welcoming of Utkin staying in Russia.

So yeah, this is actually something to consider.  Utkin could very well have deliberately sold out Wagner willingly as part of a bigger deal with the other coup plotters.

Steve

(all this is a reminder why it is SO DIFFICULT to figure out what is going on in Russia even with classified intel info in front of one's eyes.  Russia likes it that way, so it seems)

[_Morpheus_]

38 minutes ago, Battlefront.com said:

First, because the plotters have to convince these guys to leave Russia without much fuss and offering Belarus (a Russian speaking neighbor) is more likely to achieve that than Uganda.  Second, the distance to Moscow is not relevant because they've been neutered in number and status.  Third, being in Belarus gives them a legitimate purpose inline with their core ethos, which is to protect Russia's interests.  Fourth, they very well might go to Uganda, Syria, Congo, or somewhere else AFTER they go to Belarus.  The point is to get them out of Russia NOW, worry about the details later.

There are a lot of unclear, but the main question for me is Belarus - really ?

• I could bet that most of the Belarus population don't want to get tens of thousands criminals with military experience and weapon close to their houses.
• lukashenko must have a plan for the wagner, otherwise he need to create one fast
• We saw a lot of examples where putin enemies died in Europe, does prigozin think he is safe in Belarus ?
• there is definitely some agreement, may be not between all, but may be separate ones between  lukashenko - prigozin and prigozin - putin.

And now my theory: lukashenko see that he don't have much support from his military block - they did not participate in war (I could bet putin asked for that), so he need somebody to protect him and allow to transfer the power to somebody without the coup. prigozin will be able to get money/power in Belarus with support of the lukashenko and at the same time help putin not to lose the Belarus (prigozin was not against the putin).
 

Edited June 25, 2023 by _Morpheus_

[Battlefront.com]

19 minutes ago, _Morpheus_ said:

There are a lot of unclear, but the main question for me is Belarus - really ?

That was my first reaction to for the same reasons you outlined.  These guys will be very unwelcome foreigners.  They will NOT integrate well into the local population.  But Russians do like to think short term and worry about the details later.  Like, what happens to an exiled Wagnerite when he leaves Wagner service?  Not allowed to return back to Russia, I presume.

Luka has some theoretical benefits of having these guys around, though honestly I think the headaches are more likely to make them a liability.  Especially because Luka can not count on their loyalty.  Er, as in why they are in Belarus in the first place!  I very much doubt Luka was given any choice or time to plan for them, which is why I think of Luka as not benefiting from this arrangement.

As for Russia's assassination abroad track record, it is true the Russian services can and do off people whenever and wherever they want *WHEN* they want.  Prig agreeing to go to Belarus and protecting Russia's interests there is a reason for them to not kill him.  Attempting to stay put in Rostov would do the exact opposite.

When an assassin calls you up and says "if you stay here I kill you, if you leave maybe I don't"... well... better to take a chance on the option that doesn't immediately lead to your death, right?

Steve

[FancyCat]

Shoigu and Gerasimov, is it normal for them to not say anything?

 

[Battlefront.com]

10 minutes ago, FancyCat said:

Shoigu and Gerasimov, is it normal for them to not say anything?

 

They do tend to stay quiet even when one expects them to say something, so no way to read their silence.

I think this deal has happened.  At first I did NOT believe it, for obvious reasons, but Prig's statements seem to be from him and they confirm the outline.  There is obvious evidence that he did stand down, even in Rostov.  So something absolutely and for sure definitely did happen.

The other reason to believe the deal is it is a HUGE blow to Putin's credibility.  Why announce a fake deal that is obviously a humiliation?  Why not invent something favorable?

Another piece of evidence that this deal happened is immediately after Putin started calling other heads of state to tell them all is well.  The timing seemed to be coordinated with the deal as it makes it sound more solid.  He could be bluffing, of course, but given the other evidence I don't think he is.

Steve

[Grigb]

Looks like Prig was staying at Rostov HQ the whole performance. 

[chuckdyke]

Putin is like a cancer patient on palliative care. He will be OK for a limited time.

[Grigb]

The "lost" Chechens were finally found guarding Kolomna bridge (Moscow region) 

[chuckdyke]

Somehow we can agree with the propagandists, it is said there is a first time for every thing.

 

[Grigb]

Fighter-bomber (infamous VKS pilot)

Quote

And yes, the Millerovo military airfield is still under the full control of the Wagner PMCs, as well as the Rostov airfield and the VKS PKP [Field Command Point].

[UPDATE] Other RU Nats are disputing it but not denying presence of Wagnerites. They say it was like this from the beginning of SMO, Wagnerites are just guarding Millerovo, nothing really change.

Edited June 25, 2023 by Grigb