How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?

[Battlefront.com]

Here's a thought.  Maybe Putin and Prig agreed to an orderly transition of power, but of course that has not been mentioned.  This would be consistent with Prig holding his swing of the executioner's axe and the reality that Putin is finished.

This is one of the scenarios we discussed back in March of 2022.  All parties should, especially now, understand that a messy transition of power could break up the Russian Federation in the process.  And as weak as Putin is, he could make this messy.  Instead, Putin is allowed to peacefully step down from power, keep his ill gotten gains, and live out the rest of his life in Russia.  The coup plotters (of which Prig is only one of) get what they want without the risk of Russia collapsing.

It makes sense at least.

Steve

[Ultradave]

I realize many of the players are drunk on power, but if I was anyone of consequence in the middle of this and they wanted me to resign, I'd say, "Sure, absolutely. No problem. You won't hear from me again. I'll be playing chess in the park."  

Bail out while you can.

Dave

[Phil003]

It seems there are concerns about the authenticity of the message from Prigozjin:

(google translate from Hungarian)

 

"

UPDATE: the suspicion was correct (thanks to Balázs Trautmann):
1) There is a misleading voice message on Prigogsin's previously used official channel.
2) Someone created another deceptive channel with the same content: https://t.me/s/wagnernew (and obviously there are x others)
3) Meanwhile, Prigozhin is currently communicating on this channel: https://t.me/s/wagner_ap_chvk
4) And TASSZ was the first to report the news (Natália Pikli, special thanks for this)

"

 

https://www.facebook.com/andras.racz.526/posts/pfbid0J3dmyLgXkKVuxkgqBD6UBAmXoE7ivfXro3YNTLrxCiuXugQobHWfCdUuFHtU1WTzl

 

(The guy is the most reliable Hungarian expert on the Ukrainian war)

[Grigb]

Interesting claim regarding HQ capture

Quote

Release, military authorities, the guys who carried out the order of the higher authorities of the Southern Military District to lay down their arms when Wagner[ites] took the headquarters. The guys at the headquarters of the Southern Military District were told to lay down their arms by some colonels, now some of these guys have been detained and accused of treason, although they carried out the order despite their readiness  to hold the line.

 

[TheVulture]

Question re the timing: Russia was going to shut down telegram and a lot of other communications in Rostov etc this evening. Is this something thar has happened just about when this "deal" was announced? Any possibility that this is an attempt to keep Wagner units in Rostov off-balance while Prig is possibly out of easy communication with them? Keep all the rebellious units uncertain as to whether the rebellion is still on? 

Pure speculation, with no evidence to back it up.

[Grigb]

A lots of different unconfirmed rumors about the agreement. Do not see need to discuss them. Let's wait and see.  

[Battlefront.com]

1 minute ago, sburke said:

Who is faster Putin or Zelensky?  Putin, Zelensky doesn't run.

Yes, let's start with some of our own jokes.  I have one:

Putin - "Knock knock!"

Us - Who's there?

(silence)

Us - Ah, we said "Who's there?"

(silence)

Us - Hello?  Anybody there?

(silence)

Us - Hey, this isn't how the joke is supposed to work!

OK, I didn't say it was a very good joke!  So here's another one:

Prigozhin, Lukashenko, and Putin walk into a bar.  Bartender says "what will you boys have to drink?".  Prig says "It's a glorious day and I'm feeling great!  I'll have a bottle of your best Russian vodka!"  Luksashenko says, "It's been an off sort of day and I'm not feeling so good, so I'll just have a shot of your best Belarusian vodka".  Putin says, "I'm having a terrible day.  Tell you what, here's some money to pay for my friend's drinks.  I need to excuse myself to go to the bathroom".  Putin proceeds to go out the back door of the bar.  The bartender says "Hey buddy, that's not the bathroom!", but Putin doesn't turn around and leaves.  "Who does that guy think he is?" asks the bartender.  Prig and Luka look at each other, then respond in unison "what guy?"

Thank you, thank you, thank you!  I'll be here all night!  Don't forget to tip the waitstaff!

Steve

[BlackMoria]

At this point, I don't think anyone has clear idea of what the hell is going on.   Just keep the popcorn machine popping and stand by....

[Grigb]

1 minute ago, TheVulture said:

Question re the timing: Russia was going to shut down telegram and a lot of other communications in Rostov etc this evening. Is this something thar has happened just about when this "deal" was announced

The AFAIR agreement was revealed around 40-60 minutes before the cut off time. However, speculations of negotiations existed even before that. Do not think it is related.

[Battlefront.com]

6 minutes ago, TheVulture said:

Question re the timing: Russia was going to shut down telegram and a lot of other communications in Rostov etc this evening. Is this something thar has happened just about when this "deal" was announced? Any possibility that this is an attempt to keep Wagner units in Rostov off-balance while Prig is possibly out of easy communication with them? Keep all the rebellious units uncertain as to whether the rebellion is still on? 

Pure speculation, with no evidence to back it up.

I've been wondering about this.  It would be very unusual for the FSB to not have had a plan in place to shut down Wagner's communications channels in the event of something like this.  They have leverage over Telegram and VK in ways nobody else, definitely not Prig, does.  Why would the FSB screw around with this power instead of using it to save the regime?  (assuming they weren't in on the plot, which seems likely).

That said, there is the messaging about beheading the MoD.  That would be odd for the regime to put out there, or let stand unchallenged, if it wasn't part of some discussion/deal.

Steve

[Haiduk]

Andriy Biletskyi, first commander of "Azov" and now one of commanders of 3rd assault brigade claimed today 1st mech.battalion of his brigade wiped out leftovers of 3rd motor-rifle battalion of 57th motor-rifle brigade and eliminated enemy bridgehead on western bank of canal on south from Bakhmut near Kurdiumivka village. Enemy losses about 30 KIA, 50 WIA, 10 POWs, rest of battalion actually was completely disorganized and no more present as capable military force. 

Edited June 24, 2023 by Haiduk

[Grigb]

Interesting, I see videos of Wagnerites preparations to leave Rostov but not the videos of them leaving. 

[Grigb]

Counter-terror protocol is still in effect.

[Battlefront.com]

2 minutes ago, Haiduk said:

Andriy Biletskyi, first commander of "Azov" and now one of commanders of 3rd assault brigade claimed today 1st mech.battalion of his brigade wiped out leftovers of 3rd motor-rifle battalion of 57th motor-rifle brigade and eliminated enemy bridgehead on western bank of canal on south from Bakhmut. Enemy losses about 30 KIA, 50 WIA, 10 POWs, rest of battalion actually was completely disorganized and no more present as capable military force. 

And while we all eat popcorn, Ukraine continues to take back what is theirs!

The Bakhmut area was bound to collapse sooner rather than later even if Wagner stayed around.  Now that it's apparently left the area, perhaps with some key assets (like Pansir and tanks), regaining ground should go faster.

Steve

[The_Capt]

27 minutes ago, Battlefront.com said:

Here's a thought.  Maybe Putin and Prig agreed to an orderly transition of power, but of course that has not been mentioned.  This would be consistent with Prig holding his swing of the executioner's axe and the reality that Putin is finished.

This is one of the scenarios we discussed back in March of 2022.  All parties should, especially now, understand that a messy transition of power could break up the Russian Federation in the process.  And as weak as Putin is, he could make this messy.  Instead, Putin is allowed to peacefully step down from power, keep his ill gotten gains, and live out the rest of his life in Russia.  The coup plotters (of which Prig is only one of) get what they want without the risk of Russia collapsing.

It makes sense at least.

Steve

You think they Gorbachev-ed him?  Will need to see it to believe it.  Putin is way too dangerous to keep alive and in Russia - too many connections and strings.  Prig (of whoever) will be watching over their shoulder for years.  Unless Putin dies of natural causes quickly and quietly after the transfer of power.

I do not think we have seen endgame in this.  Prig and Wagner do not dissolve without a lot of executions and prison terms being handed out.  Wagner is a rabid dog capable of taking on the Boss anytime they want as they are now.  RA was pretty damned squishy on this one, and everyone will remember who leaned where. There is not re-set “back to normal business” here, or at least not with rational human beings. (So for Russia we are a hard “maybe”)

Has anyone sold this “new deal” to Gerasimov and Shoigu yet?  Do they know they are being retired (which would normally mean “dead” unless Prig wants powerful enemies who want payback floating around).

Regardless, this severely weakens the RA who still have a third party military force on their LOCs while trying to fend off a highly empowered opponent.  Russian forces in Ukraine have to be wondering “who are we fighting for?  And why?” by this point, this cannot be good for morale.  In fact after this debacle the central question is “who is actually in charge in Russia?”  On Thursday it was Putin. Yesterday and this morning it was Prig. This afternoon is it Lukashenko?  Someone else?

Edited June 24, 2023 by The_Capt

[Grigb]

Now we have video of Wagnerites leaving Rostov

[Battlefront.com]

[moved to post below]

[kevinkin]

1 hour ago, kraze said:

She's rotten.

Rotten, some think she better than the alternative. 

Wiki:

On 10 September 2020 a law was passed by the Lithuanian Parliament which recognises Tsikhanouskaya as the "elected leader of the people of Belarus" and the Coordination Council as the "only legitimate representatives of the Belarusian people". The resolution also declares that Lukashenko is an "illegitimate leader".

On 17 September 2020, the European Parliament recognised the coordination council as the "interim representation of the people demanding democratic change" in Belarus.

However, the comment was not about so much her but as to whether Belarus could be a PIA for Russia. 

[dan/california]

30 minutes ago, Ultradave said:

I'll be playing chess in the park."  

In a very quiet country I am going to decline to name, under an alias I am not going to mention, ect. 

Edited June 24, 2023 by dan/california

[Phil003]

23 minutes ago, Phil003 said:

It seems there are concerns about the authenticity of the message from Prigozjin:

(google translate from Hungarian)

 

"

UPDATE: the suspicion was correct (thanks to Balázs Trautmann):
1) There is a misleading voice message on Prigogsin's previously used official channel.
2) Someone created another deceptive channel with the same content: https://t.me/s/wagnernew (and obviously there are x others)
3) Meanwhile, Prigozhin is currently communicating on this channel: https://t.me/s/wagner_ap_chvk
4) And TASSZ was the first to report the news (Natália Pikli, special thanks for this)

"

 

https://www.facebook.com/andras.racz.526/posts/pfbid0J3dmyLgXkKVuxkgqBD6UBAmXoE7ivfXro3YNTLrxCiuXugQobHWfCdUuFHtU1WTzl

 

(The guy is the most reliable Hungarian expert on the Ukrainian war)

Sorry it seems, the  https://t.me/s/wagner_ap_chvk channel labeled as the "real" Prigozhin might actually be a fake one. Anyway information warfare is ongoing obviously.

[Battlefront.com]

  

8 minutes ago, Grigb said:

Interesting, I see videos of Wagnerites preparations to leave Rostov but not the videos of them leaving. 

I am never going to say that I know what is going on as this is off the charts the most bizarre coup I know of, but the one thing I'm very certain of is that this is NOT over.

Prig is most likely pulling a Putin... say he's standing down, make it look like he's getting ready to leave, and then don't leave.  Why?  To buy some time?  To establish credibility for being the "adult in the room"?  No clue.  I just don't think this is over.

[Edit for this update from Grigb]

5 minutes ago, Grigb said:

Now we have video of Wagnerites leaving Rostov

Leaving Rostov to go where and to do what once they get there?

If this *is* over then it is because something much larger and more fundamental happened that we don't have any evidence of yet.  Which effectively means, from our perspective, it isn't over.

The fat lady has not sung!

Steve

[FancyCat]

11 minutes ago, Battlefront.com said:

I've been wondering about this.  It would be very unusual for the FSB to not have had a plan in place to shut down Wagner's communications channels in the event of something like this.  They have leverage over Telegram and VK in ways nobody else, definitely not Prig, does.  Why would the FSB screw around with this power instead of using it to save the regime?  (assuming they weren't in on the plot, which seems likely).

That said, there is the messaging about beheading the MoD.  That would be odd for the regime to put out there, or let stand unchallenged, if it wasn't part of some discussion/deal.

Steve

Hmm is likely really true? I think it's definitely likely that FSB knew or factions of it were aware. They have to be, this coordinated action and Putin looking like a fool definitely requires loyal parts to Putin to have failed him.

[Battlefront.com]

6 minutes ago, The_Capt said:

You think the Gorbachev-ed him?  Will need to see it to believe it.  Putin is way too dangerous to keep alive and in Russia - too many connections and strings.  Prig (of whoever) will be watching over their shoulder for years.  Unless Putin dies of natural causes quickly and quietly after the transfer of power.

Here's the thinking from way back when for a situation just like this...

Putin has no choice but to trust nobody will try to kill him, just like Gorbachev had to do.

Prig, on the other hand, has to weigh the consequences of finishing off Putin in an armed conflict in Moscow.  First, it's not guaranteed to succeed (I think it would) and could in fact break the Russian Federation into pieces.  Second, after getting Putin out he has options.  For example, who says he doesn't have Putin killed after things seem to be settled?  One reason Gorbachev did not get murdered is that he stuck the agreement, which was to remain quiet in his retirement.  If Gorbachev did not do that, don't you think he would have been assassinated and it made to look like an accident?

Putin has enough enemies within the intelligence services that he could never fully trust he wouldn't be killed if he stepped out of line.  Prig certainly has no compunction about killing people.

Steve

[FancyCat]

 

[The_Capt]

1 minute ago, Battlefront.com said:

Here's the thinking from way back when for a situation just like this...

Putin has no choice but to trust nobody will try to kill him, just like Gorbachev had to do.

Prig, on the other hand, has to weigh the consequences of finishing off Putin in an armed conflict in Moscow.  First, it's not guaranteed to succeed (I think it would) and could in fact break the Russian Federation into pieces.  Second, after getting Putin out he has options.  For example, who says he doesn't have Putin killed after things seem to be settled?  One reason Gorbachev did not get murdered is that he stuck the agreement, which was to remain quiet in his retirement.  If Gorbachev did not do that, don't you think he would have been assassinated and it made to look like an accident?

Putin has enough enemies within the intelligence services that he could never fully trust he wouldn't be killed if he stepped out of line.  Prig certainly has no compunction about killing people.

Steve

The big IF is whether or not they can box Putin up in a post-regime.  The guy has billions and powerful friends as well as enemies.

Another spin.  What is this whole theatre is to give Russia an excuse to pull out of Ukraine?  Putin’s sidelined, “for the good and internal security of the Federation”, “we taught them a lesson but now we must heal” or whatever horsesh#t they come up with.  Russia really needed an excuse to get the hell out and somehow not fall apart in the process, those whose, stunt could have set the conditions for that…but again Putin would have to be removed from the picture for this to work.