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How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?


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42 minutes ago, TheVulture said:

That seems out of step with the rhetoric so far.  Wagner say they are not interfering with the invasion of Ukraine,  and have shot down aircraft that were targeting them. But an An-26 is a transport aircraft,  so a) it is no immediate threat, and b) were they really that sure that it was carrying equipment or troops that were being deployed against Wagner? 

Just seems to me that shooting down transport aircraft is,  at first glance,  at odds with what Prig says he is doing. 

Just been talking this through with someone. The only things we could think of is either trigger happy or they thought there was a high value target in it i.e. senior Russian MOD. We erred against trigger happy as the consequences for a Wagnerite of doing something not ordered would probably ne extreme.

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Buahahaha...sorry, but this is good:

https://novayagazeta.eu/articles/2023/06/24/prigozhins-forces-enter-rostov-moscow-declares-counter-terrorism-operation-regime-en#1687602346316

I imagined Kazakh spetsnaz landing in Sheremietievo airport and starting to shoot civilians to restore order.

You know, in some crazy political-fiction scenario that surely has no chance to happen in real world...

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Just getting caught up.  How sure are we that Wagner is in Voronezh?  Or is this just rumour?  If Wagner somehow can take Voronezh they will basically own the LOCs for the RA in the entire Ukrainian theatre.

Beyond that, I would start looking for indicators of power brokers in the backfield. Talking heads gonna talk but real players are the ones in the background.  And the  there are those that are just waiting in the tall grass.  

In chess I would definitely call this entire move “check”, still not sure if Prig can do “checkmate”.  But as we have said, things go slow…until they go fast.

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7 minutes ago, The_Capt said:

Just getting caught up.  How sure are we that Wagner is in Voronezh?  Or is this just rumour?  If Wagner somehow can take Voronezh they will basically own the LOCs for the RA in the entire Ukrainian theatre.

Beyond that, I would start looking for indicators of power brokers in the backfield. Talking heads gonna talk but real players are the ones in the background.  And the  there are those that are just waiting in the tall grass.  

In chess I would definitely call this entire move “check”, still not sure if Prig can do “checkmate”.  But as we have said, things go slow…until they go fast.

Well the Mosculs definitely bombed the oil depot at the Voronezh airport. And they seem to be organising a defence line at the Oka river.

Beyond that, situation not entirely clear.

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9 minutes ago, Letter from Prague said:

Am I a bad person if I think "finally Russians are doing to each other what they did to us (people of Central and Eastern Europe) for generations"?

Nope, perfectly understandable. Curious what Putin bootlicking propagandists now do- Simonian already claimed Prig is CIA agent, but for first time they may actually reasonably be scarred for their own lives...

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13:01

Rybar [map]

https://t.me/rybar/48919

March of PMCs "Wagner": what is known as of 13.00

We tried to map all the events known by 13 o'clock: the columns of the PMCs, according to preliminary information, reached the Voronezh region. About 170 units of vehicle went further.

The columns bypassed [Voronezh moved]  — in the direction of Buturlinovka and Borisoglebsk. No infromation about capture of  airfield.

▪ Aviation continues to strike [PMC] columns. By this hour, it is known about the losses of three aircraft of the army aviation. Information about the downed transport plane is not confirmed.

An oil depot is burning in Voronezh itself: this is probably a consequence of a Ukrainian UAV strike [most likley it is RU heli].

In Rostov, contrary to the statements of the PMCs, they did not capture buildings of the FSB and the Ministry of Internal Affairs, only blocked them. At the moment, Rostov is only under the partial control of the Wagners, the normal work of all military authorities continues.

▪️ All possible routes of movement of PMCs are blocked south of Moscow.

13:17

RU Nats expect Wagnerites columns to reach Moscow this evening or tomorrow morning

13:18

https://telesco.pe/natalia_maximus_ZOV/17541

Rostov Video - looks like pro-Wagnerite people are angrily arguing with RU civil servants regarding the situation (it is entirely possible that these people, women actually, are Prig actors)

13:19

https://t.me/pgubarev/699

That Gubarev - Putin Russian will disappear soon.

13:21

https://t.me/strelkovii/5680

Girkin

The rebels have successfully passed Voronezh and are advancing through the territory of the Lipetsk region. They boast that they [quicklyand easily assaulted] the outposts of the "Russian Guard" and took trophies.

https://t.me/milinfolive/102612

Claim there are Akhmat cars in the Wagnerite convoy

 13:24

https://t.me/dva_majors/18947

Rostov photos

Wagnerites guards [/control central] cross roads

13:30

Both sides are taking losses - RU are losing helis, Wagnerites are losing cars. No reports regarding human losses

https://t.me/milinfolive/102614

Rostov Photo - Wagnerites are deploying mines at cross roads

Reminder UKR info ops are in full swing in TG channels

13:33

https://t.me/fighter_bomber/12893

Video Claim oil depot fire was started after Strela 10M missed helicopter

https://t.me/DonbassYasinovatayanaliniiOgnia/40871

Video of highway near Verkhniy Mamon (50.16207382212075, 40.37358522286715) with signs of air strike at aprox at 13:36

https://t.me/natalia_maximus_ZOV/17547

Rostov: claim - Wagnerites asks people to clear street as Rosguarding is coming to fight them

13: 40

https://t.me/rybar/48925

Rybar

Video of alleged strike on Wagnerites column

13:42

https://t.me/rybar/48926

Rybar from RT - reports of explosions at Rostov HQ

Video of people running from explosion  https://t.me/dva_majors/18966

13:45

https://t.me/strelkovii/5681

Girkin claims bloodshed has started

13:48

https://t.me/rybar/48929

Rybar from RT

After explosion there is sound of gun fight at HQ

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3 minutes ago, LongLeftFlank said:

Well the Mosculs definitely bombed the oil depot at the Voronezh airport. And they seem to be organising a defence line at the Oka river.

Beyond that, situation not entirely clear.

Ok, well it is the weekend so good time to watch the things unfold.  I suspect if Putin cannot contain this by Sun, we could be in a new ballgame.  

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13 minutes ago, The_Capt said:

Just getting caught up.  How sure are we that Wagner is in Voronezh?  Or is this just rumour?  If Wagner somehow can take Voronezh they will basically own the LOCs for the RA in the entire Ukrainian theatre.

Beyond that, I would start looking for indicators of power brokers in the backfield. Talking heads gonna talk but real players are the ones in the background.  And the  there are those that are just waiting in the tall grass.  

In chess I would definitely call this entire move “check”, still not sure if Prig can do “checkmate”.  But as we have said, things go slow…until they go fast.

Current information is that significant group of Wagnerites passed Voronezh without capturing it.  Most likely it moves toward Moscow. Looks like there are small Wagnerites units around (for example at Oil deport) but there is no significant fighting in Voronzh. 

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They fight with "Tuvian degenerate"...

2 minutes ago, Grigb said:

Judging RT footage Rostov firefight is not significant

They could wish to disperse the crowd only with flahsbangs/series into air, they used this method frequently in first days of the war on Ukrainian civilians.

Edited by Beleg85
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14 minutes ago, Grigb said:

https://t.me/strelkovii/5680

Girkin

The rebels have successfully passed Voronezh and are advancing through the territory of the Lipetsk region. They boast that they [quicklyand easily assaulted] the outposts of the "Russian Guard" and took trophies.

Wartranslated wrote this as "bypassed Voronezh", which would imply that they haven't taken it. Any confirmation on who holds Voronezh?

EDIT: sorry, just read your following post about the situation.

 

Edited by Offshoot
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I was sceptical when I went to bed last night. Prigozhin's bragging about 25k soldiers seemed like blowing hot air. Sure, people were talking about a convoy, but visual evidence of this convoy was nonexistent.

And then I woke up to news about Wagner having taken control of all of Rostov, and preparing for a thunder run on Moscow with tanks, artillery, SAM launchers, and all kinds of heavy equipment which the loyalist security forces reportedly does not have. And yes, actual video evidence of clashes between Wagner and loyalist forces.

Welcome to Tom Clancy's 21st century.

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18 minutes ago, Beleg85 said:

They fight with "Tuvian degenerate"...

They could wish to disperse the crowd only with flahsbangs/series into air, they used this method frequently in first days of the war on Ukrainian civilians.

Indeed it seems you are right

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