How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?

[dan/california]

19 minutes ago, kevinkin said:

BBC again. Taylor comments that the coup will fail and  echoes ISW 6PM assessment:

Yevgeny Prigozhin’s declared move against the Russian military leadership is "almost certainly an attempted coup", the former US Ambassador to Ukraine Bill Taylor has told the BBC.

“This is serious for Putin. The Russians are taking this very seriously, and it sounds like they should.”

But Taylor, who was in Ukraine last month, says the Wagner boss is unlikely to succeed.

“The ministry of defence forces have the equipment, have the aircraft, have the tanks – they have the military equipment in numbers – to put down Prigozhin's forces," he says.

But the Russian infighting could potentially help Ukraine in its fight to defeat Russia's invasion, Taylor said.

"If the Russians are now worried about their chain of command, then the Russians that are supposed to be fighting the Ukrainians may be distracted and may even run."

 

 

I am not nearly as confident about that as the former ambassador. His comments as reported very much have the feel of the people who said " Well of course it is very sad, but Putin will certainly take Kyiv in three days". The Russian air force might be able to flatten SMD headquarters and half of the city, although depending on exactly what Prig has gotten control of that might not be easy either. Essentially all of Russia's functional ground combat forces are in Ukraine. If they have to pull even ten percent of them in a badly planned hurry the entire front in Ukraine will blow away in the wind. By the way the people who would need to plan it are in that SMD headquarters. How is that going to work?

 

Edited June 24, 2023 by dan/california

[akd]

Wagner takes over SMD and has captive sit down with deputy defense minister. OMON raids closed-for-weekend Wagner offices.

 

[Grigb]

1 minute ago, Battlefront.com said:

He deleted it and reposted a longer version:

 

it is the same video. Here are main points

• Evkurov and Alekseyv are old farts who decide nothings
• Prig - they shoot at us, we down them and will down everybody you would send because you are hitting civilians. You just destroyed a bus with civilians. you have no conscience [looks like they talk about RU helicopter attacks. Everybody is calm, MOD guys are calm and curious]
• Evkurov [a bit confused] - it is first time i hear it and [inaudible - some thing like let us..interupted as Prig turns toward Alekseyev]
• Alekseyev [in hilariously theatrical way] - I am not going to talk to you!
• Prig [slightly confused and humiliated old man turn to Evkurov] We were talking using You [plural - respectable form] why we started using You [singular - not respectable form]. Why do you talk to me using You [singular]?
•  Evkurov [confused] Nobody talk [to you] like that. I say do not generalize. Do you talk [to me] using You [plural]
• Prig - Yes, I talk to you using You [plural]
• Evkurov - so if we say [inaudible] Prig nodes.
• Evkurov - Let's think what we should do
• Prig - One more time, we came here to get [saying a bit theatrical] a chief of general staff and Shoigu. While they are not here...
•  Alekseyev [theatrically joking] take/grab them [like saying they, people of RU MOD, do not need these two, so Prig is free to take them] 
• Prig - While they are not here, we stay here and [continue to] block Rostov
• Evkurov [absolutely calmly, softly and politely but bit confused]- then I would like to ask you to get your troops out [inaudible]
• Prig - No! No way. Guys will stay here. 
• Evkurov - We also from this point of view...
• Prig - We do interrupt you from controlling the troops [in the field]
• Evkurov - Yes, certainly you should not interrupt anybody from controlling the troops [inaudible]
• Prig [calmly] Guys are dying because you are pushing them to be meat
•  Evkurov pickups ringing phone while saying to Prig - This is a question...
• Prig - This is not rhetorical question, because you are pushing them to be meet... no ammo, no thinking, without any plans  
• Evkurov to phone - hallo, yes [listens a bit, then looks confused and cancels the call - looks like some jornos called him]
• Alekseyev [calmly] - the biggest thing that upsets me most [inaudible something like you give Kiev something to celebrate with champaign]
• Prig - Nothing to worry about
• Evkurov [calmly drinks hot tea as if they are at old farts gathering]
• Prig - party at Kiev with champaign happens when you abandon Izum, Lyman and everything else. That's when party at Kiev happens for a whole week. And we are not running away from anywhere [Says man who ran away from Bakhmut]. Tha't why we came here to stop the shame of the country we live in. This is first [I  wanted to say]
• Evkurov [a bit ashamed] - [iaudible] are you were at [or ours something]
• Prig - Certainly, Yes, for this we
• Evkurov - [iaudible] why questions [could be to us]
• Prig [getting agitated] - listen one more time, if we would talk in normal tone, we would not come here on tanks
• Somebody behind camera - [iaudible something about shells - you promised us shells]
• Evkurov - [iaudible something like - you think Shoigy and Gerasimov to blame?]
• Prig [satisfied] - Yes, absolutely right. We save Russia

The whole performance remind me old farts from last coupe (GKCHP) in 1991. The old farts pretending they know what they are doing and serving as cover for Yetsin rise. 

 

[dan/california]

3 minutes ago, Grigb said:

it is the same video. Here are main points

• Evkurov and Alekseyv are old farts who decide nothings
• Prig - they shoot at us, we down them and will down everybody you would send because you are hitting civilians. You just destroyed a bus with civilians. you have no conscience [looks like they talk about RU helicopter attacks. Everybody is calm, MOD guys are calm and curious]
• Evkurov [a bit confused] - it is first time i hear it and [inaudible - some thing like let us..interupted as Prig turns toward Alekseyev]
• Alekseyev [in hilariously theatrical way] - I am not going to talk to you!
• Prig [slightly confused and humiliated old man turn to Evkurov] We were talking using You [plural - respectable form] why we started using You [singular - not respectable form]. Why do you talk to me using You [singular]?
•  Evkurov [confused] Nobody talk [to you] like that. I say do not generalize. Do you talk [to me] using You [plural]
• Prig - Yes, I talk to you using You [plural]
• Evkurov - so if we say [inaudible] Prig nodes.
• Evkurov - Let's think what we should do
• Prig - One more time, we came here to get [saying a bit theatrical] a chief of general staff and Shoigu. While they are not here...
•  Alekseyev [theatrically joking] take/grab them [like saying they, people of RU MOD, do not need these two, so Prig is free to take them] 
• Prig - While they are not here, we stay here and [continue to] block Rostov
• Evkurov [absolutely calmly, softly and politely but bit confused]- then I would like to ask you to get your troops out [inaudible]
• Prig - No! No way. Guys will stay here. 
• Evkurov - We also from this point of view...
• Prig - We do interrupt you from controlling the troops [in the field]
• Evkurov - Yes, certainly you should not interrupt anybody from controlling the troops [inaudible]
• Prig [calmly] Guys are dying because you are pushing them to be meat
•  Evkurov pickups ringing phone while saying to Prig - This is a question...
• Prig - This is not rhetorical question, because you are pushing them to be meet... no ammo, no thinking, without any plans  
• Evkurov to phone - hallo, yes [listens a bit, then looks confused and cancels the call - looks like some jornos called him]
• Alekseyev [calmly] - the biggest thing that upsets me most [inaudible something like you give Kiev something to celebrate with champaign]
• Prig - Nothing to worry about
• Evkurov [calmly drinks hot tea as if they are at old farts gathering]
• Prig - party at Kiev with champaign happens when you abandon Izum, Lyman and everything else. That's when party at Kiev happens for a whole week. And we are not running away from anywhere [Says man who ran away from Bakhmut]. Tha't why we came here to stop the shame of the country we live in. This is first [I  wanted to say]
• Evkurov [a bit ashamed] - [iaudible] are you were at [or ours something]
• Prig - Certainly, Yes, for this we
• Evkurov - [iaudible] why questions [could be to us]
• Prig [getting agitated] - listen one more time, if we would talk in normal tone, we would not come here on tanks
• Somebody behind camera - [iaudible something about shells - you promised us shells]
• Evkurov - [iaudible something like - you think Shoigy and Gerasimov to blame?]
• Prig [satisfied] - Yes, absolutely right. We save Russia

The whole performance remind me old farts from last coupe (GKCHP) in 1991. The old farts pretending they know what they are doing and serving as cover for Yetsin rise. 

 

Priceless work GrigB!

[Huba]

Just enough time for a quick beer and popcorn run:

 

[LongLeftFlank]

NOT geolocated, so still RUMINT, but people were skeptical about Rostov until it happened overnight.

Lots of 'strategist' big brain Tweeters taking the high road and saying, nah, can't be a coup, cuz only Moscow matters, aim for the king you better not miss, etc.

But Prig is a gangsta; he isn't going for the head (yet), he has grabbed the ballz (the supply hub, the ammo).  And that is getting attention.

So if these folks (whoever they actually are) reach Voronezh, or Tula-Ryazan (home of the VDV), then what?

 

 

Edited June 24, 2023 by LongLeftFlank

[dan/california]

Is there a way to do a poll on this forum software?

I propose

A actual Putin speaking sense, at least by Putin standards

B Badly done deep fake

C Recorded speech about fertilizer production or similar

 

[dan/california]

Quote

« Mercenaries and auxiliaries are useless and dangerous; and if one holds his state based on these arms, he will stand neither firm nor safe; for they are disunited, ambitious and without discipline, unfaithful […] » Nicolo Machiavelli

A complaint voiced by a the ancient greeks as well.

[akd]

5 minutes ago, dan/california said:

Is there a way to do a poll on this forum software?

I propose

A actual Putin speaking sense, at least by Putin standards

B Badly done deep fake

C Recorded speech about fertilizer production or similar

 

It will be delayed, so I think I’m gonna sleep.

[kimbosbread]

So let’s say Prigogine has gone full gangster and we now have Valhalla-né-Rostov-on-Don. Does Ukraine make peace with Valhalla? Does Ukraine help supply them with air defense against Russian aggression? That would point to a deal having been made if it would happen.

[FancyCat]

2 minutes ago, kimbosbread said:

So let’s say Prigogine has gone full gangster and we now have Valhalla-né-Rostov-on-Don. Does Ukraine make peace with Valhalla? Does Ukraine help supply them with air defense against Russian aggression? That would point to a deal having been made if it would happen.

Hell no, better to force Prig to seize MoD resources. 

[Grigb]

45 minutes ago, Huba said:

And here's an address from Prig. @Grigb this is something to  summarise I think. What I get with my high school Russian is that they took full control of Rostov, including the airport.

Edit: changed the link to one with some translation

 

We are at HQ. 7:30 in the morning. Under [our] control military object of Rostov including airfield, airplanes that [are supposed] take off for combat work are taking off normally [implies they do not block these airplanes], no problems, medical airplanes take off normally, no problems. All we did we took control so assault avitaion [helicopters] do not strike us but UKR only. Main HQ-main point of troops control works normally, there is no problems at all, not a signle officer is taken from his duties. So, when they say to you that PMC Wagner disrupted the work [of HQ] and because of that something at front lines collapsed - [no] something collapsed at frontline not because of that. When we came here we again confirmed [discovered confirmation] a lot of new [things] [he clearly misspoke, it supposed to be - a lot of old thing]. A lot of territory is lost, a 3-4 times more [RU] soldiers dead than it is reported to higher ups [implies Putin], and what is reported is 10 times les than they say on TV [clearly misspoke again], medical losses [losses from all causes] in some days up to 1000 men per day. This is KIA, WIA, MIA + refusniks who refuse not because they are cowards but because see no other exit from situation. There is no ammo, there is no control . Chief of General Staff ran away from here as soon as he heard that we were approaching the building [let a woman pass greeted armed man who I believe is RU soldier not Wagnerite. The soldier impolitely turns away, Pri slightly humiliated turn to camera]

[Battlefront.com]

6 minutes ago, LongLeftFlank said:

NOT geolocated, so still RUMINT, but people were skeptical about Rostov until it happened overnight.

Lots of 'strategist' big brain Tweeters taking the high road and saying, nah, can't be a coup, cuz only Moscow matters, aim for the king you better not miss, etc.

This is the most important thing about what has just happened.  In normal times the usurper would have to go to Moscow to make things happen because everything that matters is there.  Well, we don't live in normal times.  The war in Ukraine is of the utmost importance and right now the most important Russian city for this war is Rostov.  So he went to the right town.

Also note that according to sources Russia put both Moscow and Rostov into "citadel mode", which is to flood the city with security forces and blockade anybody else getting in.  That will likely work for Moscow, but we know it has failed for Rostov.  Local security forces did nothing (of note) to oppose Prig's takeover.  Smart on their part... outnumbered, out gunned, outclassed, and confused.  Not the best chances for success.

6 minutes ago, LongLeftFlank said:

But Prig is a gangsta; he isn't going for the head (yet), he has grabbed the ballz (the supply hub, the ammo).  And that is getting attention.

So if these folks (whoever they actually are) reach Voronezh, or Tula-Ryazan (home of the VDV), then what?

The column is real.  It has been attacked from the air, though only a couple of vehicles were hit.

I don't have a clue what he's planning on doing with these guys or where they are headed.  At the very least he's making it more difficult for Russian regime forces to wipe him out.  Better to be in many places than in one.

Steve

[Huba]

2 minutes ago, Grigb said:

 

We are at HQ. 7:30 in the morning. Under [our] control military object of Rostov including airfield, airplanes that [are supposed] take off for combat work are taking off normally [implies they do not block these airplanes], no problems, medical airplanes take off normally, no problems. All we did we took control so assault avitaion [helicopters] do not strike us but UKR only. Main HQ-main point of troops control works normally, there is no problems at all, not a signle officer is taken from his duties. So, when they say to you that PMC Wagner disrupted the work [of HQ] and because of that something at front lines collapsed - [no] something collapsed at frontline not because of that. When we came here we again confirmed [discovered confirmation] a lot of new [things] [he clearly misspoke, it supposed to be - a lot of old thing]. A lot of territory is lost, a 3-4 times more [RU] soldiers dead than it is reported to higher ups [implies Putin], and what is reported is 10 times les than they say on TV [clearly misspoke again], medical losses [losses from all causes] in some days up to 1000 men per day. This is KIA, WIA, MIA + refusniks who refuse not because they are cowards but because see no other exit from situation. There is no ammo, there is no control . Chief of General Staff ran away from here as soon as he heard that we were approaching the building [let a woman pass greeted armed man who I believe is RU soldier not Wagnerite. The soldier impolitely turns away, Pri slightly humiliated turn to camera]

Thanks Grigb!

[sburke]

2 minutes ago, FancyCat said:

Hell no, better to force Prig to seize MoD resources. 

he certainly has enough.  I would think Rostov would have some decent air defenses.  And it isn't like Ukraine has them to spare though one would hope the Russian army is too busy to continue it's air actions against Ukraine.

[LongLeftFlank]

12 minutes ago, Grigb said:

There is no ammo, there is no control . Chief of General Staff ran away from here as soon as he heard that we were approaching the building

I really do want to believe this.

2. People got bored watching 'Swan Lake?'

I faintly recall some commercial back in the 1990s mocking vapid US morning TV, where the newsbimbo says:  "Russia blows up into tiny pieces. But first, Is Your Pet Psychic?"

Edited June 24, 2023 by LongLeftFlank

[Grigb]

56 minutes ago, dan/california said:

I think Prigozhin had a real plan, at least some support from outside Wagner, and had probably bribed some critical people as well. It would be one thing SMD if headquarters was a smoking hole in the ground when Wagner took it over. There is no evidence they had to fire anything bigger than a sub machine gun, and perhaps not even that.

GrigB is the resident subject matter expert, and I think his idea is a plausible as anything else. As for me I am rapidly coming to agree with Huba, and starting to wonder if Putin is dead, or so sick he might as well be. This would be the first move in the game of thrones to succeed him, if so.  Please note I expect that struggle to be at lest as ugly as the one in the books. Happily I think virtually all of these outcomes are good for Ukraine.

It will be fascinating whether or not we get a video of Putin tomorrow saying something about the crisis that makes sense, and isn't obviously a deep fake of some sort, or not. If we get some recorded speech about fertilizer production it is Katie bar door.

We talked thru a LOT of different scenarios for regime failure in Russia several months go. I think we are on one of the more plausible paths to that very thing, unless they sort who is actually in charge in the next 36 hours. Not sure they even have that long. And remember this is a conflict where absolutely all the major players know they are far better off to eat their pistol than to even consider surrendering. Most of them are so toxic their exile options are not great either.

My argument is that nothing so far indicates any kind of violent strugle, which would be expected if the RU MOD feels really threatened. When RU MOD defends its turf, many people die.

On the other side, what we see is pathetic and pitiful. It's actually rather hillarious (like the chat with Evkurov and Alekseyv). Tough guy (zek) would not argue over Evkurov's allegedly irreconcilable tone (that is not true, Evkurov, like other Highlanders, speaks very quietly and nicely in RU when in an unknown setting).

Everything appears to be identical to the VGCHP coup (which was not a true coup) - practically identical rhetoric to save the Motherland, same minimal violence approach, same pathetic and pitiful performance of those involved.

[Huba]

Doomsayer Girkin is convinced that all is lost - fronts will collapse, 3rd Chechen War will start...

Also information starts spreading about Wagnerites already reaching Voronezh. Might very well be true, given lat night's events.

[Battlefront.com]

It keeps coming back to "what is it that Prig wants out of this".  The only goal he has stated is that he wants the MoD's top leadership cleaned out.  It is very hard to believe that is all he's after considering they are now marked as traitors.  I'm pretty sure Russian history doesn't have a lot of examples of kindness towards such people.

Either Prig is a total moron or he's after something more.  And since he successfully moved on Rostov instead of Moscow, I don't think it's a good idea to conclude he's a moron.  Especially because he did this in a paranoid police state.

"What KGB doing?"

I saw someone in the Twitterverse wondering if Putin orchestrated this to clean house at the MoD.  I don't see why he'd go through all of this unless he really isn't in control of the MoD or the FSB.  Because he has the official authority to fire them and the unofficial authority to "retire" them.  So it makes no sense to me that Putin wanted this to happen.

Steve

[Grigb]

Girkin

The "musicians" entered Voronezh without resistance.

[LongLeftFlank]

3 minutes ago, Grigb said:

Girkin

The "musicians" entered Voronezh without resistance.

Oblast though, not city, right?

Bomb, please return to your bay....

 

Edited June 24, 2023 by LongLeftFlank

[Huba]

2 minutes ago, Grigb said:

Girkin

The "musicians" entered Voronezh without resistance.

Yup, situation seems to be progressing pretty fast:

Putin's address was again postponed BTW, but is expected in next hour or so.

[Grigb]

The GKCHP propelled Yeltsin to the presidency, while Gorbachev retired gently and bloodlessly. So they could be aiming to do the same, but I'm not sure with whom.

[Grigb]

1 minute ago, LongLeftFlank said:

Oblast though, not city, right?

Could be both but ussualy it is the city.

[Battlefront.com]

4 minutes ago, Grigb said:

My argument is that nothing so far indicates any kind of violent strugle, which would be expected if the RU MOD feels really threatened. When RU MOD defends its turf, many people die.

On the other side, what we see is pathetic and pitiful. It's actually rather hillarious (like the chat with Evkurov and Alekseyv). Tough guy (zek) would not argue over Evkurov's allegedly irreconcilable tone (that is not true, Evkurov, like other Highlanders, speaks very quietly and nicely in RU when in an unknown setting).

He is a buffoon, granted, but he's doing a lot of things right (as I just posted).  Probably because his leadership team isn't nearly as dumb and Prig is smart enough to let them plan things.

4 minutes ago, Grigb said:

Everything appears to be identical to the VGCHP coup (which was not a true coup) - practically identical rhetoric to save the Motherland, same minimal violence approach, same pathetic and pitiful performance of those involved.

There is one huge difference, though.  In the VGCHP coup it was government forces vs. government forces.  This is government forces vs. private army.  That changes the dynamics quite a bit.

On top of that the nation was not at war, suffering the worst losses since WW2, and also facing economic collapse.  Things are way more tense now than they were back then, I should think.

Steve