Huba Posted June 24, 2023 Share Posted June 24, 2023 Just now, billbindc said: I do agree that there will be negotiations...there probably already are conversations happening. But Putin's continued absence has me wondering what's going on with him. He may simply not have the ability to make a deal that other factions would accept. I'll repeat myself, but my bet is that he had a stroke or something, and the unfolding mess is Death Of Stalin 2.0. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sburke Posted June 24, 2023 Share Posted June 24, 2023 10 minutes ago, dan/california said: I also have to point out The_Capt was correct, civil war in CAN move Ukraine right off the front page. in Canada? There is a civil war in Canada? Holy crap, LOCK DOWN THE BORDER!!! 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Beleg85 Posted June 24, 2023 Share Posted June 24, 2023 (edited) 6 minutes ago, billbindc said: I do agree that there will be negotiations...there probably already are conversations happening. But Putin's continued absence has me wondering what's going on with him. He may simply not have the ability to make a deal that other factions would accept. He may also refrain from public not to let himself being connected to it and humiliated by some lowlife ex-prisoner...let the other do the dirty job. I try to remind myself of any situation of such blatant disobedience from his close circle, but frankly cannot find any...totally unusual situation for him. Like when his tanks started to burn by hundreds in III.2022. Hell, probably even more serious... Hard to tell how it will end, but I imagine formal audience of main malkontents with Tsar one day is not out of question now. He will need to swallow bitter pill, just like he did with millbloggers, even this stinking WarGonzo. Edited June 24, 2023 by Beleg85 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dan/california Posted June 24, 2023 Share Posted June 24, 2023 1 minute ago, sburke said: in Canada? There is a civil war in Canada? Holy crap, LOCK DOWN THE BORDER!!! You all surely know by now I am the worlds worst typist. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kraze Posted June 24, 2023 Share Posted June 24, 2023 Here's hoping they start shooting each other and this whole show won't just evaporate through talks. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Battlefront.com Posted June 24, 2023 Share Posted June 24, 2023 Let's assess where things are at. What do we know for sure? Prig and some portion of Wagner have at least revolted/mutinied, but it could be a coordinated coup attempt. We do NOT know which. I'll get into the nuances below. It seems local military and security forces have not opposed Wagner in any coordinated way. Based on some of the equipment shown in the downtown area, either some non-Wagner forces have joined up or at least surrendered to some extent. Prig has said as much, but now we've seen some evidence. If the T-72s seen in the downtown were brought by Wagner, then they were planning this move. Especially because I'm not sure they have transporters and they might have had to "appropriate" them There is air activity in the area and may be possible that a helicopter was shot down. The one video we have sure does sound like a MANPAD launch at a helicopter. Prig is openly stating that his men are not interested in shooting at conscripts. There's a number of reasons he has to say this, but one is certainly to position himself as a savoir. More on that below as well. Putin has not responded decisively in any way, though the MoD has made certain public statements that they are dealing with the situation. There is some evidence of clashes in Rostov and perhaps also in Bakhmut area. Prig has operations in something like 29 different cities. If this is a coordinated and preplanned operation, expect more hot spots to show up. Some analysis. Whether this is a mutiny or a coup doesn't matter at this point because if it was only a mutiny it will transform into a coup. Why? There's nobody that will believe in "amnesty" if they stand down. This is Russia and Prig and his men know that either they take power or they will be imprisoned or killed. They can't do a "protest" on this scale without that sort of punishment being handed out if they don't succeed. Prig has been at least conceptualizing something like this for months. Do not assume that plan is for him to take over everything on his own from Rostov. It could be he's happy to be in charge of a Russian MoD v2.0 and leave governing to his politically connected backers. He could effectively rule from the backroom if he wanted to. My point is that anybody that thinks this is just Prig and/or only about Prig is likely to be proven wrong. The Russian government response to this move is as inept as everything else they do. It seems that either the FSB was caught napping, was somehow complicit, or misjudged when Prig would leap forward... I don't know. I lean towards at least some FSB collaboration. The FSB is better informed about how bad things are within the Russian Federation than anybody else. They have so many informants and they also have a few buildings worth of kompromat to use as needed. The FSB very well could have assessed the situation and determined that sooner, rather than later, something was going to blow up the regime. Better to be a part of changing the regime rather than being the one changed. However, the FSB most likely has some benchmarks they are looking for before they reveal themselves duplicitous. If Prig's actions get squashed by the MoD (remember Rosgvardiya is under the MoD) then the FSB switches sides back to the regime and continues on. The 1991 and 1993 actions are not something these guys have likely forgotten. What we need to watch for are: signs that the security apparatus is not doing the regime's bidding how Kadyrov reacts to all of this what the regional governors do as things unfold I highly doubt Kadyrov is going to get deep in the middle of this at first, not unless he has a very clear understanding of what is happening. He could be in the know and the fighting between he and Prig all theater. Or he could sense the change in the air and throw his lot in with the coup plotters. Kadyrov's forces are in Belgorod. Imagine regime forces trying to squash two separate rebellions in two different places, especially if Kadyrov isolates Belgorod city. Then Russia has lost BOTH of its military hubs. That's an integrating thought Steve 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kevinkin Posted June 24, 2023 Share Posted June 24, 2023 Anti-Kremlin tycoon urges Russians to back Wagner boss Anti-Kremlin figure Mikhail Khodorkovsky has urged Russians to support Wagner chief Yevgeny Prigozhin who, as we've been reporting, has vowed to bring down Moscow's military leadership. Khodorkovsky, who was once Russia’s richest oligarch, said: "We need to help now, and then, if necessary, we will fight this one, too." After falling out with Vladimir Putin, he spent 10 years in a Russian prison and recently called for tougher sanctions against the Russian president. Khodorkovsky said it was important to back "even the devil" if he decided to take on the Kremlin. Does this guy live in Russia? 10 years in jail, love to meet his accountants. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Battlefront.com Posted June 24, 2023 Share Posted June 24, 2023 21 minutes ago, Beleg85 said: He may also refrain from public not to let himself being connected to it and humiliated by some lowlife ex-prisoner...let the other do the dirty job. I try to remind myself of any situation of such blatant disobedience from his close circle, but frankly cannot find any...totally unusual situation for him. Like when his tanks started to burn by hundreds in III.2022. Hell, probably even more serious... Hard to tell how it will end, but I imagine formal audience of main malkontents with Tsar one day is not out of question now. He will need to swallow bitter pill, just like he did with millbloggers, even this stinking WarGonzo. Whether this started out as a coup or not is irrelevant. It is a coup now. The only negotiations I think going on right now are the different factions aligning themselves with one side or another. For all we know there could be more than 2 sides. FSB could try and take advantage of Prig's drama in Rostov and do something on their own in Moscow. Putin is not necessarily done yet (unless he did have a stroke or something), but I believe he can NOT bounce back from this. He's done no matter what happens next. Steve 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Battlefront.com Posted June 24, 2023 Share Posted June 24, 2023 2 minutes ago, kevinkin said: Does this guy live in Russia? 10 years in jail, love to meet his accountants. No, he lives in London IIRC. He has been one of the biggest thorns in Putin's side for quite some time. His voice has weight. Steve 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kevinkin Posted June 24, 2023 Share Posted June 24, 2023 1 minute ago, Battlefront.com said: His voice has weight. Is his main audience the other oligarchs and well off Russians in general. I would think so. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Battlefront.com Posted June 24, 2023 Share Posted June 24, 2023 Footage of military forces on the road to Moscow. No way to tell who they are, despite the video saying they are Wagner. https://www.reddit.com/r/UkraineWarRoom/comments/14hfm75/more_wagner_convoy_on_route_to_moscow/ That said, it has the feel of a Wagner more than it does MoD forces. Steve 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cesmonkey Posted June 24, 2023 Share Posted June 24, 2023 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LongLeftFlank Posted June 24, 2023 Share Posted June 24, 2023 (edited) Cripes, I take off into the bush for a couple months and look what happens! Well, cue up some vintage RU doomer rock, circa 1991. Plus ca change.... 1. Big, if true.... 2. Voronezh.... (Bellingcat, I think, so reliable?) Edited June 24, 2023 by LongLeftFlank 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Battlefront.com Posted June 24, 2023 Share Posted June 24, 2023 Just now, kevinkin said: Is his main audience the other oligarchs and well off Russians in general. I would think so. Theoretically yes. That and the intellectual class. Let's put it this way... it certainly isn't helpful to Putin that Khodorkovsky is putting his voice behind Prig. Steve 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Battlefront.com Posted June 24, 2023 Share Posted June 24, 2023 1 minute ago, cesmonkey said: Wait, so Ukraine is still conducting a counter offensive? Holy crap, I totally forgot! 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Battlefront.com Posted June 24, 2023 Share Posted June 24, 2023 1 minute ago, LongLeftFlank said: Cripes, I take off into the bush for a couple months and look what happens! Welcome back! You will be pleased to know that someone has posted Death of Stalin and 1980s music video clips at regular intervals during your absence. Steve 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dan/california Posted June 24, 2023 Share Posted June 24, 2023 1 minute ago, kevinkin said: Is his main audience the other oligarchs and well off Russians in general. I would think so. Fascinating question, did he sign up with Prig in the last 24 hours, or 15 months ago? This feels like a deeply planned operation. Moving even five thousand troops hundreds of mile and taking over a major city by coup de main is not something you do on a weekend bender. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LongLeftFlank Posted June 24, 2023 Share Posted June 24, 2023 1 minute ago, Battlefront.com said: Welcome back! You will be pleased to know that someone has posted Death of Stalin and 1980s music video clips at regular intervals during your absence. Steve My people! 5 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sburke Posted June 24, 2023 Share Posted June 24, 2023 1 minute ago, dan/california said: Moving even five thousand troops hundreds of mile and taking over a major city by coup de main is not something you do on a weekend bender. somebody shoulda told Putin that! 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FancyCat Posted June 24, 2023 Share Posted June 24, 2023 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dan/california Posted June 24, 2023 Share Posted June 24, 2023 (edited) Edit: She looks like a woman who understands the possible endings are bad and worse. Edited June 24, 2023 by dan/california 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kevinkin Posted June 24, 2023 Share Posted June 24, 2023 (edited) Pretty brave to approach unknown troops with guns in the middle of an attempted coup and ask them where they are from. You go girl. Edited June 24, 2023 by kevinkin 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Battlefront.com Posted June 24, 2023 Share Posted June 24, 2023 More possibly related videos: 1. Big fire in Moscow. Related to what is going on? Entirely possible, though not necessarily directly connected to Wagner. Could be partisans thought this would be a good time to strike: https://www.reddit.com/r/UkraineWarRoom/comments/14hecqw/military_base_on_fire_near_moscow/ 2. RUMINT that there's fighting near Moscow: https://www.reddit.com/r/UkraineWarRoom/comments/14heet2/clashes_between_wagner_pmc_and_russian_national/ 3. More tanks being moved somewhere by someone. No details with the video other than supposedly it is Wagner, but I'm guessing MoD: https://www.reddit.com/r/UkraineWarRoom/comments/14hfjur/reportedly_a_wagner_convoy/ Another bit of armor (BMP-3) being moved by commercial transport. My guess is these are MoD: https://www.reddit.com/r/UkraineWarRoom/comments/14hfo62/another_wagner_convoy/ 4. More videos of military vehicles in Moscow, almost certainly MoD: https://www.reddit.com/r/UkraineWarRoom/comments/14hehxp/ruzzian_present_to_wagner_some_vehicles_with/ https://www.reddit.com/r/UkraineWarRoom/comments/14hcoi4/military_convoy_has_been_spotted_in_moscow_russia/ https://www.reddit.com/r/UkraineWarRoom/comments/14hco3z/security_forces_on_moscow_streets/ Steve 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
billbindc Posted June 24, 2023 Share Posted June 24, 2023 47 minutes ago, Huba said: I'll repeat myself, but my bet is that he had a stroke or something, and the unfolding mess is Death Of Stalin 2.0. It's after 7am in Moscow. If we don't have a statement by the time I wake up in 8 hours or so, I'm with you on this. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dan/california Posted June 24, 2023 Share Posted June 24, 2023 Just now, kevinkin said: Pretty brave to approach unknow troops with guns in the middle of an attempted coup and ask them where they are from You go girl. Straight to Tblisi if she has any sense. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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