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How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?


Probus

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As I sit reading today's posts, my house has been rocked by low flying F-16s, F-22s and an assortment of other aircraft.  Fortunately, it is all in prep for this weekend's Quad City Airshow.  As I run from my desk every few minutes to catch a glimpse, I also realize how lucky I am to experience this as entertainment and not during wartime use.  

This **** in Ukraine needs to end and Putin needs to be put down like the rabid dog he is.  Hell, empty the whole infected kennel and eradicate the entire breed of those that use force to satisfy their own twisted desires.

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2023-06-2322_24_47-Window.thumb.png.1a3f86c7d58a92086fe3e842b50adf6c.png

 

If we take June 4th as the start of the counter offensive russia has lost 452 artillery pieces as reported by the Ukraine armed forces. Even if it is only half that number this is very unsustainable for russia.

 

https://lookerstudio.google.com/reporting/dfbcec47-7b01-400e-ab21-de8eb98c8f3a/page/p_puy9yu3a6c?s=q6WS0kQJzRg

2023-06-2322_26_52-Window.png.3210adc5accf26f5c32bab681266d52f.png

Looking at the whole year the artillery destruction began at the beginning of May

Edited by zinz
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Ok, do we know axctually how many troops Wagnerite still have on and near the frontlines? 20 000 or something?

 

PS. 30-page essay to write and such happenings...sleepless night ahead;)

Kapustin aka Nikitin has a sense of humour...

 

Edited by Beleg85
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Some of humor )

Next Wagners unite with RVC and LFR, seize Moscow, shoot out MoD RF, come to Kremlin, establish military dictatursip. Finally, it turns out that Prigozhyn was killed in Africa as far as in 2018. The bald actor put off a mask - Budanov is under it. He presses a button. Moscow is blowing to bits.

Edited by Haiduk
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"That goes fast"...

Damn, PL and Balts gave half of their arms to Ukraine already, we have nothing left to support Wagnerites now. 😉

There are reports that many internet cameras in Moscow are going down...

Edited by Beleg85
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2 hours ago, dan/california said:

The Russians will never be more distracted than they are right now

well, if this is real they are all gonna be a lot more distracted than they are now.  This whole thing fills me w joy.  Prig maybe thinking w whole army stuck at the front this is his big moment?  -- either Putin is behind this or Prig is committing suicide, unintentionally.

Anyone have any info on how many men Prig has available these days?

Edited by danfrodo
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Multiple reports now about RU security forces putting up roadblocks in Moscow and Rostov. CCTV and internet cameras reportedly down there. Main Wagner base in Molkino is reportedly surrounded by OMON with combat jets in the air.

 

Edited by Huba
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5 minutes ago, Huba said:

Multiple reports now about RU security forces putting up roadblocks in Moscow and Rostov. CCTV and internet cameras reportedly down there. Main Wagner base in Molkino is reportedly surrounded by OMON with combat jets in the air.

 

Prig's gonna be shocked at how fast his fighters defect.  Can't wait to see that.  He can't pay them if RU stops the money.  he can't feed them, he can't supply them.  This is absurd.  And RU MOD will just sweep all those men into the RU regular army.  Gawd, now this is entertainment!!

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3 minutes ago, billbindc said:

 

Looks like Moscow somehow missed the import of the Wagner troops all calling home to say goodbye to their loved ones. Capt...any thoughts on what the end of Wagner will mean for Russian military abilities? 

Sorry, I'm a broken record on this..... but do these idiots really think they can take over the govt?  Can take over the MOD?  As if MOD & Shoigu & FSB don't all report to Putin???

 

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2 minutes ago, danfrodo said:

Sorry, I'm a broken record on this..... but do these idiots really think they can take over the govt?  Can take over the MOD?  As if MOD & Shoigu & FSB don't all report to Putin???

 

Well...another of my old saws is that autocracies look unshakeable right up until the moment they fall apart. Clearly Prigozhin sees an opportunity or simply has no choice. What I'm waiting to see is if/when any regular army units publicly defect to his side. If that happens, pretty much anything is possible.

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5 minutes ago, danfrodo said:

Prig's gonna be shocked at how fast his fighters defect.  Can't wait to see that.  He can't pay them if RU stops the money.  he can't feed them, he can't supply them.  This is absurd.  And RU MOD will just sweep all those men into the RU regular army.  Gawd, now this is entertainment!!

While Wagner makes a lot of money from e.g. mining concessions in exchange for military support in some African countries, which is technically independent of the government, you've got to suspect that it is Russian government pressure that set up those deals in the first place. And in the absence of government support, the deals are perhaps likely to disappear.

It's really hard to see how Pirogzhin can think he is going to win this, unless he knows he's got men already in position and considerable support from some sections of the military and other people that matter.

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Ok, preliminary and most plausible explanation: Prig knew he was to be arrested soon, so tried to play va banque and use his (real or imagined) conenctions to save skin.

Second, less plausible: Putin wants to blame MoD in spectacular way.

3 minutes ago, billbindc said:

Well...another of my old saws is that autocracies look unshakeable right up until the moment they fall apart. Clearly Prigozhin sees an opportunity or simply has no choice. What I'm waiting to see is if/when any regular army units publicly defect to his side. If that happens, pretty much anything is possible.

Prig isn't a stupid guy, he knows he has no chances if not counting on some good krysha on the top/or  followers in Russia.

At this point it is not just Ukrainian PsyOps clearly...overall, all of this is odd.

Nice:

 

Edited by Beleg85
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Rumor mill now is that two Wagner convoys heading towards Rostov and the Interior Ministry troops let them through. Wagner Telegram just post "It Begins". If that all checks, it's a bigger thing than we yet know and it has support in Moscow. The move to Rostov is intelligent too. Prigozhin likely thinks the units there will be swayed to his side. If he can get that ball rolling who knows where it stops.

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3 minutes ago, Huba said:

"Big if true" kinda news:

If this is confirmed, the full blown civil war has started. Damn it's going to be difficult to sleep today!

Hard to take a '50km' convoy literally - it's about 50km from the border crossing to Rostov-on-Don. That sounds, at the very least, like a big exaggeration.

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4 minutes ago, billbindc said:

Rumor mill now is that two Wagner convoys heading towards Rostov and the Interior Ministry troops let them through. Wagner Telegram just post "It Begins". If that all checks, it's a bigger thing than we yet know and it has support in Moscow. The move to Rostov is intelligent too. Prigozhin likely thinks the units there will be swayed to his side. If he can get that ball rolling who knows where it stops.

It also could serve to put the maximum dislocation effect on the MoD in Ukraine - they are mostly focussed on the south, and if this is right then Wagner is going to be a) sitting on their supply lines and b) cut them off from getting back to places that matter in Russia in a timely manner - depending on how much support there is for Wagner here of course,

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3 minutes ago, Huba said:

Apart from Surovikin, reportedly FSB itself issued a call to not carry on criminal Wagner orders, but to apprehend Prig and hand him to authorities. A smell of fear seems to be more and more distinct...

 

He looks like somebody from behind a camera is aiming at him with AK...but on other side, he always looks like that. Interesting is that he calls it "march of justice"- rather manifestation of discontent than a coup. All this looks rather theatrical for now...

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