How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?

[A Canadian Cat]

19 hours ago, cesmonkey said:

Also, the KA-52 Alligators may end up destroying themselves due to a vibration issue

LOL yeah the vibration from a nearby exploding missile. Sounds like Space X saying their rocket suffered a "rapid unscheduled disassembly".

[TheVulture]

2 hours ago, Lethaface said:

The interesting bit imo is whether the replacement cost (which do actually need to be paid in full one would assume) had come out a specific budget 'jar' labeled 'Ukraine mil support' and now needs to be refilled from another jar outside the defense budget (creating a deficit somewhere else), or are these just labeled costs which are all credited against the overall US Defense budget. 
In the latter case they can just 'change the label' retroactively, which will then also impact the fulfillment of the allowed balance sheet expenses for 'Ukraine mil support' for the difference (and thus open up the difference which seems to be 6.2 Bn). 

In other words, it might be just a simple balance sheet correction exercise. AFAIK the US Mil budget is a sort of current account backed by a large virtual $ printing machine where 6Bn is pocket change. 

But indeed not a good impression on the accounting side of things for the Pentagon, one would expect these things to be checked by teams of controllers and accountants; if you cook the books cook m good :D. 
PS I'm neither an accountant, although did learn a couple of things about it.

I think that the reality is that the 'cost' either way is more of less fictional. These are items from deep reserve storage that were never going to be used short of a major land invasion of the United States (which, obviously, isn't on the cards). They don't need to be replaced. They are just stuff that has been obsoleted out of service or withdrawn due to changing budget allocations, and they get 'replaced' naturally over the course of time as new procurement programs update and replace currently in-service equipment and it gets moved into permanent storage.

All that it means is that the US equipment stores in deep reserve are slightly smaller, but in practice there is no reasonable scenario where that matters. And if it ever does matter, it is probably in a scenario of total all-out superpower world war in which case a few $Billion of bookkeeping games isn't going to matter in the slightest. 

I real terms, much of the dollar value assigned to aid for Ukraine is fictional - no-one is actually spending $6B on this equipment, or on replacing it (except in so far as they were spending that anyway). What it might be is 'foot in the door' spending, where "we approved spending of X, but now accounting changes mean that it only cost Y, so we can still spend (X-Y) on additional aid for Ukraine without anyone complaining". Or having to get approval from the relevant oversight bodies

[dan/california]

7 minutes ago, IanL said:

LOL yeah the vibration from a nearby exploding missile. Sounds like Space X saying their rocket suffered a "rapid unscheduled disassembly".

I don't know if the vibration issue with the Ka-52s is a real thing, but it is potentially a large issue if true. Russia is having to fly the heck out theses thing to even try an stay in this war, or at least in Southern Ukraine. If they are running into a real fatigue limit issue with the airframes that could have a material effect on this war.

Edited June 22, 2023 by dan/california

[Lethaface]

13 minutes ago, TheVulture said:

I think that the reality is that the 'cost' either way is more of less fictional. These are items from deep reserve storage that were never going to be used short of a major land invasion of the United States (which, obviously, isn't on the cards). They don't need to be replaced. They are just stuff that has been obsoleted out of service or withdrawn due to changing budget allocations, and they get 'replaced' naturally over the course of time as new procurement programs update and replace currently in-service equipment and it gets moved into permanent storage.

I think we agree but in accounting terms the cost can never be fictional, unfortunately there are only 'legal fictions' ;-). So while you are of course correct that the real/intrinsic value of such stuff is up in the air at any given moment, it is actually in the books somewhere. But indeed that doesn't mean one has to now actually find 6.2Bn somewhere. Just change the books and credit the 'Ukr aid' for 6.2Bn and debit it the amount to the general 'replacement costs provisioning' tab. Voila, more funds made available for aid to Ukraine. If pulling from (revalued) existing stock those 6.2Bn could be milked out for quite a bit I'd say. 

Edited June 22, 2023 by Lethaface

[cesmonkey]

8 minutes ago, dan/california said:

I don't know if the vibration issue with the Ka-52s is a real thing, but it is potentially a large issue is true. Russia is having to fly the heck out theses thing to even try an stay in this war, or at least in Southern Ukraine. If they are running into a real fatigue limit issue with the airframes that could have a material effect on this war.

This was the evidence that the writer of that blog pointed to:
https://defence-blog.com/russian-ka-52-helicopter-sufferers-excessive-vibration/

[Haiduk]

Kostiantyn Mashovets wrote today Russians took from own operative reserves 38th motor-rifle brigade of 35th CAA of Eastern military district and with elements of 45th VDV Spetsnaz brigade launched heavy counter attack on direction Novofedorivka - Novopokrovka along Mala Tokmachka river and from line Luhivske - Novokarlivka toward Bilohirya. In result of these attacks, supportted with artillery and MLRS, Russians could seize SE part of Novopokrovka village (by DeepState map it already long time signed under Russian control, but likely now it was in grey zone) and push UKR troops closer to Bilohirya. At the evening UKR troops managed to stop Russian advance with huge amount of artillery fire. 

Mashovets supposes, that it's a matter with what forces and where Russians conducted these counter-attacks. If near Pyatykhatky we can see different volunteer units ("Shtorm. Osetia" and BARS-32 "named after Sudoplatov" - local Zaporozhian collaborators) along with some regulars, that east from Robotyne, Russians have thrown to counter-attack one of most capable units on this front - elite VDV Spetsnaz (as assault infantry!) and unit of 35th CAA as well as units of 5th СAA, operating on V.Novosilka salient - on Mashovets opinion, troops of Eastarn Military District are more properly trained and motivated. So, likely Russians considered a section east of Robotyne more dangerous, than Pyatykhatky and harried to counter UKR push with own counter-attack, using more capable reserves and this is good sign in "reserves run" 

Edited June 22, 2023 by Haiduk

[Haiduk]

Tu-95 in air now. Russians offended for Chonhar bridges %)

Last night they have struck the dam on Inhulets river in Kryvyi Rih with Kh-22 and Kinzhal missiles. The dam already was hit in 2022, but damages were repaired. In this time launched missiles didn't hit such big target and explosed nearby. Total were launched 3 Kh-22 and 3 Kinzhals. In Kryvyi Rih reportedly two explosions were heard. One Kh-22 missile hit private houses in Kostiantynivka town of Donetsk oblst

Place of missile explosion in Kryvyi Rih

  

[Haiduk]

Russians claim UKR forces hit TV-tower in Vasylivka. No TV and cell-phone signal along the Dnipro from Nova Kakhovka to Velyka Lepetykha. 

[dan/california]

40 minutes ago, Haiduk said:

, Russians have thrown to counter-attack one of most capable units on this front - elite VDV Spetsnaz (as assault infantry!) and unit of 35th CAA as well as units of 5th СAA, operating on V.Novosilka salient

This actually excellent, even if the AFU lost a bit of ground. Forcing one of the best units the Russians have left to attack in a place where Ukraine can truly mass fires is the way to win this war.

[Battlefront.com]

2 hours ago, TheVulture said:

I think that the reality is that the 'cost' either way is more of less fictional. These are items from deep reserve storage that were never going to be used short of a major land invasion of the United States (which, obviously, isn't on the cards). They don't need to be replaced. They are just stuff that has been obsoleted out of service or withdrawn due to changing budget allocations, and they get 'replaced' naturally over the course of time as new procurement programs update and replace currently in-service equipment and it gets moved into permanent storage.

All that it means is that the US equipment stores in deep reserve are slightly smaller, but in practice there is no reasonable scenario where that matters. And if it ever does matter, it is probably in a scenario of total all-out superpower world war in which case a few $Billion of bookkeeping games isn't going to matter in the slightest. 

I real terms, much of the dollar value assigned to aid for Ukraine is fictional - no-one is actually spending $6B on this equipment, or on replacing it (except in so far as they were spending that anyway). What it might be is 'foot in the door' spending, where "we approved spending of X, but now accounting changes mean that it only cost Y, so we can still spend (X-Y) on additional aid for Ukraine without anyone complaining". Or having to get approval from the relevant oversight bodies

Correct about some of the stuff, but not others.

Something like a mothballed Bradley or MRAP already has an established accounting value on the books, based on depreciation since it was new.  Since they are out of service they are already replaced and using "replacement value" is incorrect.  However, it can be "sold" to someone at any value the customer is willing to pay.  The difference between the accounting value and the sale price is deemed "profit".  The Pentagon has to report this income so that Congress can determine what to do with it for the next budget year.  It could use it to defray new money from the taxpayer, for example.  This is especially relevant now that there's an artificial spending cap in place as part of the debt ceiling deal.

The Pentagon (or any accountable entity, private or public) can not have their cake and eat it too.  Either the item was worth very little and was sold for that low price, or it was worth very little and was sold at a high profit.  Each has ramifications from an accounting point of view, both are legitimate.  What is not allowed is to repeatedly declare the item as worth very little until it was sold, then sell it well above that price and change the value to match so that there's no profit.  That is a big no-no.

Other things, however, should be done at replacement value.  If the US military wants to have 1 million artillery shells in its ready reserve for its own use, then whatever shells are sent to Ukraine DO need to be replaced at whatever the current cost is.  And this should be very clear at the outset, so there shouldn't be a need to make a correction later on.  If a correction is made later on then an auditor would RED FLAG the f out of the transaction because it's hard to see how this could be an honest mistake.

The Pentagon loves playing accounting games.  Nothing new here except this time they had a reason to make it public.

Steve

[danfrodo]

So we are seeing RU attacking relatively small UKR penetrations w reserves -- seems kinda crazy.  Were they given "not one step back" orders from Herr Putler-Stalin?  It's easy to say "no one is that dumb" but how then does one explain Bakhmut and Vuledar, where the same forces that would now be in the trenches are instead underground, plus the destroyed equipment and wasted ordnance.

I am loving the destruction of RU artillery systems.  It seems when these are hit the crew typically is hit also.  So RU's 'up front' strategy is causing the loss of irreplaceable artillery personnel killed right when needed most, along w tubes.  Plus the ammo dumps being hit plus the reduced supply rate.  Not a good recipe for defense.  Without lots of artillery, there's just no way for RU to hold, as per Steve above.  Maybe have more tubes & shells they can bring up, but crews??

 

[Bearstronaut]

The Ukrainians seem pretty darn sure that Russia is planning to do some nefarious s*** at the Zaporizhzhia NPP.

 

[dan/california]

 

Quote

https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/isw-briefing-room

 

This is new, and appears excellent, short though.

[Harmon Rabb]

48 minutes ago, Bearstronaut said:

The Ukrainians seem pretty darn sure that Russia is planning to do some nefarious s*** at the Zaporizhzhia NPP.

 

Related.

[The_Capt]

27 minutes ago, Harmon Rabb said:

Related.

Uh…what?  When the hell did all this happen?

[Harmon Rabb]

5 minutes ago, The_Capt said:

Uh…what?  When the hell did all this happen?

12:15 PM today, according to Graham's Twitter account.

 

[dan/california]

2 minutes ago, The_Capt said:

Uh…what?  When the hell did all this happen?

Last 36 hours, people seem to be trying to get ahead of the problem, and actually warn Putin off. It is worth pointing out that this is a non-binding opinion from Congress, not an actual law that Biden would have to adhere too. Unless Biden signs something it is all just talk.

Zelensky seems to have a credible intercept of Russian communications or similar. He has been very vocal about last night and today. Other countries are acting like they believe him

 

 

[The_Capt]

23 minutes ago, dan/california said:

Last 36 hours, people seem to be trying to get ahead of the problem, and actually warn Putin off. It is worth pointing out that this is a non-binding opinion from Congress, not an actual law that Biden would have to adhere too. Unless Biden signs something it is all just talk.

Zelensky seems to have a credible intercept of Russian communications or similar. He has been very vocal about last night and today. Other countries are acting like they believe him

 

 

US Congress just basically gave bi-partisan support for an escalation ladder to WW3…that is some spicy talk.  

Nuclear weapons release makes sense (although these were words we dared not speak in the previous 17 months).  Destruction of a nuclear power plant = Article 5 is a pretty serious round to be loading in the chamber. 

I drifted off when everyone was talking about 6.8mm and woke up to this?!

Where in the hell is @billbindc!

Edited June 23, 2023 by The_Capt

[Harmon Rabb]

Just some photos and info on how Ukraine uses Sea Ark Dauntless patrol boats that I found interesting.

We talk a lot about Ukraine's Army, Ukraine's Navy also needs some love around here.

[dan/california]

19 minutes ago, The_Capt said:

US Congress just basically gave bi-partisan support for an escalation ladder to WW3…that is some spicy talk.  

Nuclear weapons release makes sense (although these were words we dared not speak in the previous 17 months).  Destruction of a nuclear power plant = Article 5 is a pretty serious round to be loading in the chamber. 

I drifted off when everyone was talking about 6.8mm and woke up to this?!

Where in the hell is @billbindc!

On the way to his vacation bunker in West Virginia?

 

[Battlefront.com]

16 minutes ago, The_Capt said:

US Congress just basically gave bi-partisan support for an escalation ladder to WW3…that is some spicy talk.  

Nuclear weapons release makes sense (although these were words we dared not speak in the previous 17 months).  Destruction of a nuclear power plant = Article 5 is a pretty serious round to be loading in the chamber. 

Unfortunately, talk of creating a radioactive release (of any sort) leaves very little for the US, NATO, and its allies to do.  Talk of retaliating by giving Ukraine ATACAMS, F-16s, 100x Abrams, etc. is just not not sufficient as Russia probably thinks (correctly) that it is just a matter of time before they are transferred.  Plus, Russia is already decidedly losing the conventional war with what Ukraine has already, so there's that.

The Article 5 threat is valid.  For those who say it isn't, I'd ask them how they would view a deliberate and 100% voluntary radioactive release over their home to be.  Because if the winds do what they did with Chernobyl, it's going to wind up in a good part of Europe and to a lesser extent everywhere else. 

 

There was just an article on this sort of thing in Washington Post.  It detailed (amongst other things) radioactive plutonium trapped in sedimentary layers at the bottom of a Canadian lake in Ontario from the 1950s nuclear tests in the Pacific.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/climate-environment/interactive/2023/anthropocene-geologic-time-crawford-lake/?utm_campaign=wp_post_most&utm_medium=email&utm_source=newsletter&wpisrc=nl_most&itid=mr_1&carta-url=https%3A%2F%2Fs2.washingtonpost.com%2Fcar-ln-tr%2F3a5a768%2F6491ce2290e29b5cbf4382fb%2F5b6a1f5bade4e277958a3cb5%2F13%2F72%2F6491ce2290e29b5cbf4382fb

So yeah, it's time to make sure Putin has a very clearly defined red line not to cross.

Steve

 

[dan/california]

21 minutes ago, The_Capt said:

US Congress just basically gave bi-partisan support for an escalation ladder to WW3…that is some spicy talk.  

Nuclear weapons release makes sense (although these were words we dared not speak in the previous 17 months).  Destruction of a nuclear power plant = Article 5 is a pretty serious round to be loading in the chamber. 

I drifted off when everyone was talking about 6.8mm and woke up to this?!

Where in the hell is @billbindc!

People didn't draw real red lines about blowing the dam, and Putin blew the dam. It is quite possible people are now overreacting in the other direction.

It is also possible that this was always going to escalate to some level of real NATO involvement because Putin is is simply unable to admit he lost to Ukraine, so he is going to keep doing crazier things until NATO gets involved.   His megalomania and or theory of regime survival might make it inevitable. It would be a great time for someone else in the regime who is more attached to living to remember where they keep their pistol, and their spine.

[The_Capt]

4 minutes ago, Battlefront.com said:

Unfortunately, talk of creating a radioactive release (of any sort) leaves very little for the US, NATO, and its allies to do.  Talk of retaliating by giving Ukraine ATACAMS, F-16s, 100x Abrams, etc. is just not not sufficient as Russia probably thinks (correctly) that it is just a matter of time before they are transferred.  Plus, Russia is already decidedly losing the conventional war with what Ukraine has already, so there's that.

The Article 5 threat is valid.  For those who say it isn't, I'd ask them how they would view a deliberate and 100% voluntary radioactive release over their home to be.  Because if the winds do what they did with Chernobyl, it's going to wind up in a good part of Europe and to a lesser extent everywhere else. 

 

There was just an article on this sort of thing in Washington Post.  It detailed (amongst other things) radioactive plutonium trapped in sedimentary layers at the bottom of a Canadian lake in Ontario from the 1950s nuclear tests in the Pacific.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/climate-environment/interactive/2023/anthropocene-geologic-time-crawford-lake/?utm_campaign=wp_post_most&utm_medium=email&utm_source=newsletter&wpisrc=nl_most&itid=mr_1&carta-url=https%3A%2F%2Fs2.washingtonpost.com%2Fcar-ln-tr%2F3a5a768%2F6491ce2290e29b5cbf4382fb%2F5b6a1f5bade4e277958a3cb5%2F13%2F72%2F6491ce2290e29b5cbf4382fb

So yeah, it's time to make sure Putin has a very clearly defined red line not to cross.

Steve

 

Ah crap…I had plans for this summer.  And was so close to retirement.  I don’t think my knees can take a third war.

[kevinkin]

17 minutes ago, dan/california said:

Unless Biden signs something it is all just talk.

Yep, it's would be about funding for the long run. But if the interests of NATO are threatened, emergency action could be taken without signing legislation. For example, we detect the imminent release of radioactivity from the plant that might somehow affect Poland. 

Still, executive branch lawyers concede that the president cannot unilaterally commit the military to a conflict of substantial nature, scope, and duration, even if there is a strong national interest. Any military confrontation between Russia and NATO would surely be of a substantial nature, scope, and duration — and would therefore require congressional authorization.

I think the resolution is a good move aimed to prevent WW3 rather that stoke it. "NATO" has already entered the war via all kinds of support. So this tightens the screws a tiny bit more. I would like a resolution that has more meat. "Given the anticipated liberation of Ukraine, we hereby support the transfer of the following systems to provide for the Ukraine's defense of its hard won gains" 

[dan/california]

1 minute ago, The_Capt said:

Ah crap…I had plans for this summer.  And was so close to retirement.  I don’t think my knees can take a third war.

Always a some small hope that Putins folds, or is given a 9mm retirement present.