How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?

[DesertFox]

Just a reminder...

 

 

[Grigb]

10 hours ago, kevinkin said:

I remember early on, there was reporting on how the UA was utilizing the females in the defense against. I have not seen much on this lately. So how are the RA and UA using 50% of their adults? Is Russia using them at all? Will finding roles for females provide an advantage over Russia? I am not suggesting storming trenches. Perhaps part of UAV teams. Just curious on how this factors into the war or if it does at all in a meaningful way. 

Regarding RU. 
Women are used by the RU for non-combat NCO duties as well as for medical personnel. But it's not much. First, because chauvinism has permeated society.  Second, you do not want to be near RU soldiers as a woman. The Russian army does not acknowledge human desires. That is a soldier issue. Actually, the same is true for officers...It is not a rape; rather, it is a never-ending sexual harassment, often from your immediate superior who is not properly supervised. And, unless you are transferred, there is only one possible outcome.

[The_Capt]

4 hours ago, Battlefront.com said:

I have seen various "cold showers" on Ukraine's destruction of rail infrastructure.  Even most bridges can be repaired relatively quickly, so they say.  But that's really not the case.  There are only so many of those resources available to fix complex infrastructure at one time.  This matters A LOT.

The best analogy that people can relate to is the loss of power.  Losing one telephone pole at a time is very different than 100 at one time.  It is also different than losing poles, substations, and major transmission towers.  When we have major snow/ice damage to our grid I see trucks coming from 100s and sometimes 1000+ miles away and they stay for weeks.  I've seen convoys of 20 trucks at a time coming from Canada and the Southern US.

What Ukraine needs to do is drop a whole bunch of rail and road bridges concurrently so that the crews/materials availability to Russia are overwhelmed.  The bridge that theoretically could be back in service in 1 week, if there was nothing else going on, might now take a 1 month simply because it has to wait in line.

I know that Ukraine's strategists are aware of this, but man... a lot of commentators out there are not.

Steve

Infrastructure is like any other system.  Hit a single node and the system can surge to repair it quickly.  Hit more nodes and the system takes longer to repair.  Hit enough nodes and the system starts to fail.  The ability to repair transport infrastructure relies on transportation infrastructure.  Hit it hard enough and repair capability has to “literally” repair its own way into the system.  There comes a point when the system fails completely.  The question is, “what does it take to push the system to failure?”

[DesertFox]

Not good.

 

Of course, these are all lies...

 

 

Edited June 22, 2023 by DesertFox

[Grigb]

Concerning the Chongar bridge, UKR Kovalenko (a colleague of Mashovets) suggests considering not just - IN to Khrerson-Zaporozhye scenario, but also OUT of Khrerson-Zaporozhye scenario. 

UKR might not be able to block escape route to Crimea in time but they sure can make bottleneck much narrower in the most unfortunate (for RU) moment. RU command will have to reconsider a few things now.

Edited June 22, 2023 by Grigb

[DesertFox]

Maybe too early, but it looks a lot like UKR is starting to isolate the battlefield. All hints go to Melitopol.

 

 

 

 

[Joe982]

Regarding the nuclear power plant, we are all aware that the wind can blow in any direction.

What is the prevailing wind direction?

.

[Beleg85]

128th brigade claiming to destroy rare Russian ISDM Zemledeliye mining system.

This one:

https://special-ops.org/isdm-zemledeliye-an-advanced-remote-mine-laying-system/

[Beleg85]

Also, Situation posted yesterday of tank riding over Maxxpro, now visible from Russian drone (happenned long time ago, maybe week or so):

 

Edited June 22, 2023 by Beleg85

[Grigb]

 

Sane and intelligent people

Quote

NATO standards are ineffective. The Ukrainian troops we took in the Krasno-Limansky direction confirmed this. They got military training from NATO instructors in Germany and Slovenia.

In addition to learning how to use Western weaponry, these prisoners were taught hatred at foreign training grounds.

Dehumanization was carried out by German instructors and psychologists from other nations, who instilled misanthropic philosophy, hate of the Russian people, and urged for violations of international humanitarian laws of combat.

The overarching theme of such "trainings" was to murder as many Russians as possible.
Another prevalent theory that was drilled into their brain was that the Russian army is ineffective and that victory will go to Ukraine.

Foreign psychiatrists failed to turn people into inhumans. At least in the early fights, some prisoners opted to surrender. In order to avoid both killing and being killed.

And one can only picture the climate that develops in the ranks of Ukraine's Armed Forces if the prisoners claim that the attitude toward them here, in the "Russian dungeons," is better than in their army, which has been trained by Western curators.

1984 is not a fiction.

[UPDATE] For those who believe this is a fantasy of some unknown RU Nat, this is Evgeniy Poddubny, the official reporter for Russia's number two channel. The videos in the post clearly indicate RU MOD as the source of information.

Edited June 22, 2023 by Grigb

[DesertFox]

35 minutes ago, Grigb said:

 

Sane and intelligent people

1984 is not a fiction.

[UPDATE] For those who believe this is a fantasy of some unknown RU Nat, this is Evgeniy Poddubny, the official reporter for Russia's number two channel. The videos in the post clearly indicate RU MOD as the source of information.

Yeah, but those are the same nutters who blabbered about genetically modified mosquitos for muscovites and anglo-saxon specific biocompounds.

Edited June 22, 2023 by DesertFox

[Battlefront.com]

56 minutes ago, Grigb said:

 

Sane and intelligent people

1984 is not a fiction.

[UPDATE] For those who believe this is a fantasy of some unknown RU Nat, this is Evgeniy Poddubny, the official reporter for Russia's number two channel. The videos in the post clearly indicate RU MOD as the source of information.

The funniest part about this is that in reality the NATO trainers probably have to keep telling the Ukrainian recruits to not kill every single Russia they ever meet because Russia has made its soldiers the most hated in the world.

As someone who considers himself reasonably sane, it is difficult to imagine how Russians could know they are waging a brutal war on Ukrainian soil without Ukrainians hating them for very good reasons.  That it takes a foreigner to convince the "little brothers" that Russians aren't nice people.  And yet, I am sure a good chunk of the Russian population believes exactly this.  Soft minds are easily molded into contorted shapes.

Steve

[billbindc]

4 minutes ago, Battlefront.com said:

The funniest part about this is that in reality the NATO trainers probably have to keep telling the Ukrainian recruits to not kill every single Russia they ever meet because Russia has made its soldiers the most hated in the world.

As someone who considers himself reasonably sane, it is difficult to imagine how Russians could know they are waging a brutal war on Ukrainian soil without Ukrainians hating them for very good reasons.  That it takes a foreigner to convince the "little brothers" that Russians aren't nice people.  And yet, I am sure a good chunk of the Russian population believes exactly this.  Soft minds are easily molded into contorted shapes.

Steve

This brings us back to the surrendering issue. Russian soldiers certainly know that rape, torture and murder are part and parcel with their operations in Ukraine. I would argue that they certainly know that Ukrainians hate them and that Ukrainians have every reason to destroy them and show no mercy. That Ukrainians are often willing is besides the point that the Russian military has internalized their own malignancy.  

[Battlefront.com]

5 hours ago, Huba said:

Another video of the struck bridge, damage looks to be more extensive than at the first glance indeed.

Yes, that bridge looks more damaged than the hole suggests.  At least one of the main girders is deformed.  Very repairable, of course, but it's another thing that has to go onto Russia's ToDo List.

5 hours ago, Huba said:

But TBH, while it makes sense to put the permanent, convenient bridge out of service, the strait should be quite easy to cross with pontoon bridge, and then we'll be back to the whack-a-mole situation from Kherson.
What makes the most sense though is attacking the railway bridge north of Dzhankoy, so no train will be able to reach Melitopol area. Even more sense of course to hit the Kerch bridge itself, or some of the rail overpasses just west of it.

There is a major difference between the bridges over the Dnepr and out of Crimea... the distance on the other side before getting to the front.

In Kherson the primary logistics point was only hundreds of meters from the destroyed bridge.  No matter how convoluted the improvised path from the crossing point might have been compared to the prewar path, it would never be more than maybe 1km of inconvenience.  That's not much at all.  From Kherson the distribution to the frontlines was relatively short for the most part, 100km to the furthest point.

Compare this to Melitopol, which is the primary logistics hub for the entire southern front.  The prewar path between Crimea and Melitopol is roughly 120km, which means the potential for disruption is far greater.  One of the alternate paths sketched out in a Tweet above puts it at roughly adding 200km to the path!  That's huge.  We're now talking about adding several hours to every single thing that goes from Crimea to Melitopol.  This might not seem like a lot, but it definitely is because it is a compounding problem.  Not only does it cause the trip to take 3x longer, it is now 3x more wear and tear on transportation infrastructure.  Even more problematic is that the loss of rail lines means thousands of truck trips will be needed to do what one train could have done.

And even after getting to Melitopol, the problems continue.  The average trip to the frontline is 2x to 3x longer than it was for Kherson.  That gives Ukraine more opportunities to drop bridges in the operational area, which will then compound strategic logistics stress by adding more stress to operational logistics.  Especially because there are a LOT more Russian forces in the south than there were in Kherson.

With all this stress the question becomes... where is Russia going to get all the trucks and manpower it needs to crossload from rail to truck and then get it to where it needs to be when it is needed?  For sure Russian forces won't be cut off, but like Kherson they will suffer increasing difficulties getting the supplies it needs to function.  Eventually this made defending the right bank impractical and Russia had to withdraw.

Do not be surprised if the extra stress of working around the logistics reality in the south produces a faster collapse than Kherson.

Steve

[Battlefront.com]

Video of the strike on the Chongar bridge:

https://twitter.com/bayraktar_1love/status/1671826522804477953

There is one large detonation with flash and then a few seconds later a smaller one without a flash.  Storm Shadow's dual warheads?

Steve

[chrisl]

10 minutes ago, Battlefront.com said:

Video of the strike on the Chongar bridge:

https://www.reddit.com/r/UkraineWarRoom/comments/14fzsln/video_of_the_strike_chongar_bridge_the_moment_of/

There is one large detonation with flash and then a few seconds later a smaller one without a flash.  Storm Shadow's dual warheads?

Steve

Those seem like two separate objects in slightly different locations.  Dual warheads on a single missile has to be fractions of a second apart unless the first deploys off the front of the missile well before hitting.  A few seconds for a pair of falling object is quite a separation in distance.

[DesertFox]

4 minutes ago, chrisl said:

Those seem like two separate objects in slightly different locations.  Dual warheads on a single missile has to be fractions of a second apart unless the first deploys off the front of the missile well before hitting.  A few seconds for a pair of falling object is quite a separation in distance.

Both bridges were hit. The car and the rail bridge.

[Battlefront.com]

Interesting video.  Some people speculate this was a barrel explosion, but I don't think so.  Strike hit just out of frame to the "north" of the 2S4 and the shrapnel hit exposed ammo on the top deck.  Could have been a HIMARS (quite a bit of flame), but could also be a 155 PGM.  Hard to tell without seeing the full impact area.

Either way, the gun crew was eliminated and the vehicle is likely out of service for a very long time.

Steve

[Battlefront.com]

8 minutes ago, chrisl said:

Those seem like two separate objects in slightly different locations.  Dual warheads on a single missile has to be fractions of a second apart unless the first deploys off the front of the missile well before hitting.  A few seconds for a pair of falling object is quite a separation in distance.

Yeah, I figured the delay was a bit too long, but was thinking that the smoke rising might have added some more time.  It's interesting that the second whatever it was didn't show any flame.

Steve

[Butschi]

9 hours ago, Battlefront.com said:

What Ukraine needs to do is drop a whole bunch of rail and road bridges concurrently so that the crews/materials availability to Russia are overwhelmed.  The bridge that theoretically could be back in service in 1 week, if there was nothing else going on, might now take a 1 month simply because it has to wait in line.

I know that Ukraine's strategists are aware of this, but man... a lot of commentators out there are not.

Makes sense from a military point of view. But I imagine UA is a bit reluctant to destroy too much infrastructure, at least within the country. I guess they have in mind what happens after the war. Rebuilding will be brutally expensive and noone invests in a region that has all the infrastructure destroyed. Tough choices there.

[womble]

5 minutes ago, Butschi said:

Makes sense from a military point of view. But I imagine UA is a bit reluctant to destroy too much infrastructure, at least within the country. I guess they have in mind what happens after the war. Rebuilding will be brutally expensive and noone invests in a region that has all the infrastructure destroyed. Tough choices there.

Those bridges would likely be dropped by the Russians as they are driven back anyway, so perhaps the UKR policy makers aren't too concerned about infrastructure surviving the liberation of the land it's built on.

[Kinophile]

8 minutes ago, womble said:

Those bridges would likely be dropped by the Russians as they are driven back anyway, so perhaps the UKR policy makers aren't too concerned about infrastructure surviving the liberation of the land it's built on.

Yup, scorched earth is very much to be expected. Dropping the bridges before the Russians do it anyway makes sense. 

The Chonhar bridges were probably an softer target than the Kherch,  which surely has AD galore around it, yet with a very similar logistical impact. Now yet more Russian AD assets will need to be repositioned to defend these northern crossings -  not just to get logistics north but to protect any future routes of retreat. 

Added to Steve's notes about the increased distance and wear/tear issues,  there's also the fuel factor. Larger and/or more numerous Fuel dumps will need to be provided along the new route, which HIMARS and other M/LRGM will absolutely love. 

[Chibot Mk IX]

On 6/20/2023 at 5:39 AM, Maciej Zwolinski said:

Have you managed to find any weapons which would work for this? I do not think there is any mobile SHORAD in the Nato inventory which could reach out to 10 KM. US ones are based on Stinger, so no better than MANPADS in the range department.

I proposed to strike airfield, FARPs, kill the birds when they are in the nests. Utilize Artillery to bomb the hovering Ka-52 and use FPV kamikaze drone. Unfortunately CMO cannot simulate the FPV drone idea. Maybe we will need the help from ARMA 3.   

 

[Elmar Bijlsma]

Cannot believe I missed it but Dutch state broadcaster NOS had an article claiming War Gonzo was possibly killed.

Sauce:

https://nos.nl/artikel/2479807-belangrijke-russische-oorlogspropagandist-wargonzo-mogelijk-gesneuveld-in-loopgraaf

DeepL-ed excerpt:

Quote

 

It seems that 'WarGonzo', one of Russia's best-known military bloggers, died this week. Semyon Pegov, as his real name was, was seen as a front soldier in the Kremlin's information war.

Those who follow the war in Ukraine closely have probably seen him. Shouting into his phone on selfie mode, with his distinctive voice reminiscent of Kermit the Frog from the Muppet show.

Whether he is really dead is not certain, but images are circulating of the Ukrainian marine who allegedly shot him, in a trench near Robotyne. That is south of Zaporizhzhya, where the Ukrainians are now trying to advance. A comparison of the photos taken just before his death with Ukrainian bodycam footage seems to show that this is Pegov.

But one hundred per cent certainty about his death is thus lacking. Pegov's Twitter account reports that he is still alive. This does include a picture of him in winter clothes, so that picture is not current and presumably he did not post it himself. There is also a report that he is in a hospital in Luhansk and is brain dead.

The image from the trench is that of battle in its rawest form. Ukrainians run through the narrow corridors, mowing down anyone they come across. WarGonzo - if it is him - comes running and gets a late glimpse of the soldier killing him. From less than a metre away, the soldier shoots the man, who has a gun at the ready.

While NOS is usually bit short on inside sources in conflicts, they don't usually publish any old wild rumour.

 

EDIT

Some Russian channels say he is in hospital, braindead. I'd call that a pre-existing condition.

Edited June 22, 2023 by Elmar Bijlsma
Needed more shots fired.

[billbindc]

11 minutes ago, Elmar Bijlsma said:

Cannot believe I missed it but Dutch state broadcaster NOS had an article claiming War Gonzo was possibly killed.

Sauce:

https://nos.nl/artikel/2479807-belangrijke-russische-oorlogspropagandist-wargonzo-mogelijk-gesneuveld-in-loopgraaf

DeepL-ed excerpt:

While NOS is usually bit short on inside sources in conflicts, they don't usually publish any old wild rumour.

Speaking of War Gonzo, don't forget to vote: