How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?

[sburke]

ahh man, this is worthy of a Monty Python skit.

Kremlin decides that goal to "demilitarise" Ukraine has largely been achieved (yahoo.com)

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Dmitry Peskov, press secretary of the Russian dictator, has said that the task of the aggressor country on the so-called"demilitarisation" of Ukraine has allegedly been largely fulfilled.

Source: Peskov in an interview with RT Arabic, according to TASS propaganda news agency

Quote: "Indeed, Ukraine was heavily militarised at the time of the beginning of its [special military operation, as the Russian Federation calls the war against Ukraine – ed.]. And, as [Russian President Vladimir] Putin said yesterday, one of the tasks was to demilitarise Ukraine.

In fact, this task is largely completed. Ukraine is using less and less of its weapons. And more and more it uses the weapons systems that Western countries supply it with."

 

So apparently Russia just wanted Ukraine to not have any of it's old legacy weapons.  

 

[Grigb]

33 minutes ago, Battlefront.com said:

The most viable solution to the helicopter threat is the one noted many times above... keep smashing their bases. 

True but I am approaching everything from CM point of view.

[dan/california]

Thinking about the drone vs helicopter more. What you want is a longer endurance fixed wing drone. And allow me to reiterate that it is the best case for autonomy ever. There is not a civilian helicopter within a hundred kilometers of the front line, probably far more than that. Give the drone a a rational kill box and instructions to kill anything with a rotor, and a self destruct for when it runs out of fuel. I would even attempt to give it a non-gps guidance system to make it less jammable. Ukraine has to take far worse risks with civilian lives, and well the the Russians have been VERY busy proving they deserve to hunted like the unpleasant creature of your choice. 

Edit: ust realized I copied Fancy Pants.

Edited June 18, 2023 by dan/california

[The_MonkeyKing]

36 minutes ago, Battlefront.com said:

The most viable solution to the helicopter threat is the one noted many times above... keep smashing their bases.  We saw how effective this was in Kherson in 2022, where Russians kept losing helicopters to artillery and sabotage strikes.  They eventually had to pull them very far back.  HIMARS forced them even further back.  Storm Shadow should, theoretically, cause them even further discomfort.  So much so that it seems Russia is risking keeping them within Storm Shadow range because pulling them further back effectively takes them out of the fight.

We know Ukraine can hit the bases, so why isn't it doing so?  There's been no evidence that Russia has meaningful counter measures, so the risk of expending valuable munitions without a good chance of hitting doesn't seem to be the reason.  My guess it's another timing issue.

Bases are notoriously hard to keep out of action.  Right now Ukraine knows where they are, as the RU bloggers are moaning about.  If they hit one of the bases they will likely take some out of action, but not all.  The survivors will go somewhere else and Ukraine will have to figure out where.  Over time this could consume a lot of Storm Shadows.  Maybe they are thinking it is best to wait until the main counter offensive is underway (i.e. target rich environment) before they hit the bases.

Another thought is that Ukraine is using these early battles to figure out how to better deal with helicopter threats.  Bashing their bases now will disrupt this learning process.  If this is true, then it's a good indication that Ukraine doesn't think it's entirely helpless against helicopter attacks, rather it just hasn't found the right combination to counter them.

Whatever the case it, Ukraine appears to be "allowing" Russia to continue using helicopters.

Steve

I would guess it is not worth it to hit those helicopters with the current munitions available. 

Those helicopter bases must be anti-air hardpoints and the helos are dispersed(in the satellites) 100m apart so it would be 1 storm shadow = one destroyed helo + what it takes to penetrate AA.

The target lists must have lots of higher priority targets for these low-availability high-demand deep strike assets.

Now GLSDB that would be nice. But still, the copter will just move 50km further back when these arrive to the theater. 

[Offshoot]

Russia has other problems as well, though we'll have to see how bad it gets:

Russian units in Kherson Oblast and Crimea, stricken in cholera outbreak, ‘losing combat effectiveness’ - https://english.nv.ua/nation/russian-units-in-kherson-oblast-and-crimea-stricken-in-cholera-outbreak-losing-combat-effectivene-50332646.html

The story is taken from a TG post by a partisan group but Ukrainian authorities had already reported that cholera was detected in water after the Kakhovka dam was blown, so it really wouldn't be surprising - https://english.nv.ua/nation/cholera-and-e-coli-found-in-water-supplies-in-southern-ukraine-following-kakhovka-dam-destruction-50331656.html

[Grigb]

Quick update for 16-17 June from non Mashovets sources (you will not see it on maps based on Mashovets posts).

 

Edited June 18, 2023 by Grigb

[sburke]

12 minutes ago, Offshoot said:

Russia has other problems as well, though we'll have to see how bad it gets:

Russian units in Kherson Oblast and Crimea, stricken in cholera outbreak, ‘losing combat effectiveness’ - https://english.nv.ua/nation/russian-units-in-kherson-oblast-and-crimea-stricken-in-cholera-outbreak-losing-combat-effectivene-50332646.html

The story is taken from a TG post by a partisan group but Ukrainian authorities had already reported that cholera was detected in water after the Kakhovka dam was blown, so it really wouldn't be surprising - https://english.nv.ua/nation/cholera-and-e-coli-found-in-water-supplies-in-southern-ukraine-following-kakhovka-dam-destruction-50331656.html

How fitting.  Sadly though it is likely affecting or going to affect the civilian population.

Edited June 18, 2023 by sburke

[dan/california]

7 minutes ago, Offshoot said:

Russia has other problems as well, though we'll have to see how bad it gets:

Russian units in Kherson Oblast and Crimea, stricken in cholera outbreak, ‘losing combat effectiveness’ - https://english.nv.ua/nation/russian-units-in-kherson-oblast-and-crimea-stricken-in-cholera-outbreak-losing-combat-effectivene-50332646.html

The story is taken from a TG post by a partisan group but Ukrainian authorities had already reported that cholera was detected in water after the Kakhovka dam was blown, so it really wouldn't be surprising - https://english.nv.ua/nation/cholera-and-e-coli-found-in-water-supplies-in-southern-ukraine-following-kakhovka-dam-destruction-50331656.html

The harder question is can NATO ship Ukraine enough water purification systems and medical supplies to keep the problem Russian only. Also a vast potential for civilian suffering, especially in the Russian held areas. All that said, Karma has entered the chat, bleeping itself to death is almost as bad as what the Russian army deserves. Double points for the Russians themselves causing the problem. 

[Grigb]

I am working on UKR Mashovets posts. He clarified configuration of RU main defensive line at Verbove (Tormak Direction). my Google Earth does not show elevation so here is description and elevation map with my understanding of the location (I will mark approximated location on my google earth maps):

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...which in this area runs along the heights north of Verbove – south of the village of Novoprokopivka – between the village of Ilchinkove and the village of Sladka Balka – northeast of the village of Chystopilia...

 

Edited June 18, 2023 by Grigb

[dan/california]

1 minute ago, Grigb said:

I am working on UKR Mashovets posts. He clarified configuration of RU main defensive line at Verbove (Tormak Direction). my Google Earth does not show elevation so here is description and elevation map with my understanding of the location:

 

Assuming the red lines are the Russian entrenchments, their choices seem a bit disjointed.

[hcrof]

The UA seems to have figured something out yesterday - let's hope it continues!

 

 

[Letter from Prague]

4 hours ago, Jiggathebauce said:

Have a totally left field question about helicopters: have there been recorded instances where air assets were hit by ground based artillery, out of pure coincidence and serendipity? Accidental reverse anti air, if you will?

Not artillery, but we have definitely seen hovering helicopters hit by ATGM.

Twice in exactly the same place. Because Russia.

[Grigb]

15 minutes ago, dan/california said:

Assuming the red lines are the Russian entrenchments, their choices seem a bit disjointed.

This is my interpretation. I assumed that RU, like UKR, attempted to control heights by stationing platoons and companies on top of hills and ridges.

We can also utilize the RU fortifications map.

 And sattelite photos.

I marked trenches that were readily visible. It's unclear whether they're manned or whether they're the same positions Mashovets is referring to.

 

 

[Grigb]

I already said that the dominant RU viewpoint is that their main problem is troop cowardice. Some might think I am biased and exaggerating RU stupidity and resemblance to German Nazis.  So, here's a new remark from Khodakovsky (the infamous commander of the infamous Vostok battalion):

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...Sometimes he [UKR] succeeds, and he takes possession of one of them [RU position], but he cannot gain a foothold, and under the influence of our arty, he departs to the starting line, and we crawl back and restore what was destroyed - until the next fight. And it becomes quite clear that if our soldier has no intention of retreating, the enemy has no chance of advancing.

 

[Grigb]

From Wargonzo - yesterday attack at Robotne

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The enemy, as before, used infantry with the support of a small armored group, covering their advance with "smoke".

That's the current tactics - infantry pushes with minimum armor using smoke to cover the advance (most probably protecting armor from ATGMs). Smoke is important as ever.

[The_MonkeyKing]

1 hour ago, hcrof said:

The UA seems to have figured something out yesterday - let's hope it continues!

Zero evidence of even one KA-52 going down during these recent southern operations.

[Homo_Ferricus]

18 minutes ago, The_MonkeyKing said:

Zero evidence of even one KA-52 going down during these recent southern operations.

Of all the things being caught on video in this war, I would imagine catching a helicopter playing peek-a-boo 10km away would be one of the more difficult ones to film, for the reasons stated in the last page or two.

[Grigb]

Just now Wargonzo - RU retreated from Pytikhatka

[Grigb]

UKR Mashovets just now

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Interesting information comes from the Vuhledar area.

It has not been confirmed yet... But if it is true, then the Russians are in serious trouble...

RU

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In the area of Vuhledar, the enemy is probing the Russian line of defense.

 

[The_MonkeyKing]

39 minutes ago, Homo_Ferricus said:

Of all the things being caught on video in this war, I would imagine catching a helicopter playing peek-a-boo 10km away would be one of the more difficult ones to film, for the reasons stated in the last page or two.

Agreed, but still no evidence so cannot say one way or the other 

[Haiduk]

Ukrainan aviation hit large ammo dump, deployed on grain elevator in Rykove settlement (also in some reports it named Partyzany - old decommunized name, existing before 2016) in 18 km north from Henichesk. Intensive detonations are lasting more than four hours so far. Probably the settlement will be badly damaged.

Reportedly there were strikes on ammo dumps and troops deployments in Lazurne and Skadovsk, but no visual confirmations yet

 

 

[Grigb]

Interesting photo from Novaya Tavolzhanka (RDK raid)

Description from RU reporter

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17.06.2023
Novaya Tavolzhanka, Shebekinsky district, Belgorod region, Russia.

Consequences of the fighting 07.06.2023 

according to the official version, the enemy did not enter the New Tavolzhanka that day

 

[Grigb]

RU Nat about current situation

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A few words regarding the Zaporozhye direction:

Robotne is no longer physically exists.

Pyatikhatki are abandoned during an organized retreat. The troops went to Kamensky [unable to locate it].

"We must be prepared to leave part of the territories at the front line in order to draw the enemy deep into the defensive lines," a combat officer told me yesterday.

Edited June 18, 2023 by Grigb

[Grigb]

Reminder how real cope looks like - RU "reporter" aka notorious propagandist Sladkov 

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Zaporozhye. Orekhiv's direction. The data is trustworthy. The enemy launched a massive assault. The enemy troops were advancing, supported by NATO tanks and armored vehicles. There was a constant heavy battle. The Ukrainian assault battalion was completely destroyed during the day. There was no way for a single soldier or commander to evacuate. I am aware of the large number of AFU vehicles that were destroyed or burned during the day, but it is up to the Russian Ministry of Defense to disclose specific findings.

"We cannot measure our soldiers' feat, it is limitless," said one of the leaders. We don't consider monetary prizes or orders. The most important thing for us is that we complete our task."

 

[Haiduk]

3 minutes ago, Grigb said:

The troops went to Kamensky [unable to locate it].

Kamyanske. Large village on the Dnipro bank. It divided in half by a river gulf. Northern part under UA control, southern - under Russian control. I think, he meant Russian forces retreated in derection Kamyanske, but not completely all to this village