How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?

[danfrodo]

1 hour ago, dan/california said:

I also like the idea of hooking the Russian line just north of Kupiyansk and at least faking hard towards Staroblisk

I advocated this some months ago.  But now I don't.  If UKR were going to do this, the last thing they would want is to conduct operations right in same area, alerting RU to the threat.

[kevinkin]

40 minutes ago, Vet 0369 said:

watch

Not talking about watch. Asking about fire and movement and using the darkness to an advantage. I read many times this was a major advantage for NATO. Did this advantage go away with a wider use of night vision type force multipliers? Perhaps the UA does not have enough forces for 24/7 combat and rather do most of the work during the day. Maybe its due to training. Just a mysterious part of the war. 

[Battlefront.com]

52 minutes ago, kevinkin said:

Not talking about watch. Asking about fire and movement and using the darkness to an advantage.

Chrisl gave an excellent technical breakdown, but he didn't fully answer your larger question... with 10s of thousands of drones being used, why aren't we seeing more night stuff?  The following is part speculation and part gleaned knowledge:

The answer is, of course, cost and availability conspire against it.  I doubt there's 10s of thousands of truly night capable drones available at any price, not to mention very low cost.  So for the most part Ukraine has to source daytime drones simply because it can neither find nor afford good quality night capable ones.

When we do see night capable drones in use they are not being driven into the back of a pickup truck or (usually) concentrating on killing a couple of mobiks with a grenade.  Instead they are up high looking down to try and get a better picture of what is going on.  This is a higher value use for a higher value drone.  It is also more likely to survive as it can (hopefully) avoid EW.

Then there is the operator's skill level to consider.  Flying ANYTHING involves a decent amount of skill/practice, but flying in the dark is a lot trickier.  Even with GPS (if it isn't interfered with), compass, and altitude indicators it is easy to get disorientated.  If you're up high, disorientation is less likely to be fatal to the drone.  Again, these things are expensive so Ukraine wants them back, so theoretically the most experienced teams are going to use them and they are going to favor getting them back over making a kill.

52 minutes ago, kevinkin said:

I read many times this was a major advantage for NATO. Did this advantage go away with a wider use of night vision type force multipliers? Perhaps the UA does not have enough forces for 24/7 combat and rather do most of the work during the day. Maybe its due to training. Just a mysterious part of the war. 

Nobody has enough forces to do 24/7 ops on a regular basis for a war of this scale and duration.  Troops need to sleep and generally speaking the best time to do that is when the other side isn't actively trying to kill you.  So there's a natural preference for daytime ops with large scale night ops being the exception rather than the rule.  Equipment shortages further distorts this.

What I've seen Ukraine do at night is the usual stuff, such as snipers, small patrols recovering wounded, resupply, etc.  No doubt they do some larger scale night attacks here and there, but I don't think it is practical to do them more than sparingly.

The main counter attacks will, likely, be more 24/7 than the follow up attacks.  Therefore, I expect we'll see more of this happening as the counter attack unfolds.

Steve

[Battlefront.com]

In the US there is a writers' guild strike, which has halted production of anything that requires scripted speech by guild members (TV and movies, for the most part).  I am really glad to know the Ukrainians and Russian liberation guys don't need such services, because they are doing extremely well on their own.  From ISW's June 4th report:

Quote

Belgorod Oblast Governor Vyacheslav Gladkov responded to a RDK and LSR demand to negotiate for the exchange of captured Russian prisoners of war (POWs). The LSR and RDK addressed a video to Gladkov purporting to show RDK and LSR fighters with two Russian POWs whom they said they captured near Novaya Tavolzhanka. The RDK and LSR demanded that Gladkov arrive at the temple in Novaya Tavolzhanka by 1700 (Moscow Standard Time) to negotiate for the release of the POWs.[5] Gladkov stated that he was ready to meet with the RDK and LSR fighters at the Shebekino checkpoint to negotiate the exchange of the POWs.[6] Gladkov later reportedly refused to meet with the RDK and LSR fighters because he believed that the Russian POWs were already dead.[7] The RDK and LSR released a subsequent video showing themselves with 12 Russian POWs, criticizing Gladkov for lacking courage, and stating that they would send the POWs to Ukraine.[8]

"Holy humiliation, Batman!"

Lead sentences for two other sections:

Quote

The dissonant Russian responses to and reporting about the limited raid in Belgorod Oblast continue to suggest that the Russian leadership has not yet decided how to react to these limited cross-border raids. 

...

The limited raids and border shelling in Belgorod Oblast are increasingly becoming the current focal point for criticism against the Russian military leadership.

I can't say I'm surprised by either of these observations.

For all the puff and pride the Putin regime has about being a unified, smooth running "power vertical" organization, I think it's becoming increasingly clear how chaotic and disorganized the chains of command are.  Not just military (that's been obvious since February 2022), but also civilian.

This does not bode well for a regime that may soon face an internal challenge.

Steve

[kevinkin]

20 minutes ago, Battlefront.com said:

Nobody has enough forces to do 24/7 ops on a regular basis for a war of this scale and duration.

Great points. But has NATO lost it's advantage in night combat or is that advantage difficult to press home in this large and long war? So special ops going into a terrorist nest at night is almost irrelevant when we are talking ground warfare on the scale we are observing? And on a static front. Perhaps the advantage will shine once a war of movement arises. I kind of sort of hope so.

[Battlefront.com]

9 hours ago, Haiduk said:

According this information for 22 day of partial mobilization (Nov 10 - Dec 2) were mobilized more than 300 000 of citizens and formed about 280 units. Among this 300 000, 79 800 were mobilized from DNR and LNR (almost 27 %)

This number in 79800 can be multiple in several times, but how much were mobilized in LDNR still unknown. According to unofficial info on summer 2022 were mobilized 140 000 so far. And unknown how much were mobilized in two next waves from July to November 2022 and from Decenber to June 2023.

This has major implications for the next mobilization.  If these numbers are accurate, roughly 25% of the men mobilized came from occupied territories who have next to no influence within Russia.  They, like the far eastern Russians, are "out of sight, out of mind" for regime's core population base in European Russia.  It is unclear how much more they can easily scoop out of either the far east or the occupied territories, which means the European Russians might be hit harder this time than last time.  Since Putin is eager to not upset this group by mobilizing them, he might find himself having to push the safety margin a bit more this year than last.

The flip side of this is if Russian authorities dig too deeply into the "out of sight, out of mind" populations he risks one or more of them doing something to destabilize the internal politics of Russia.

If either happen, that's good for Ukraine.  It is even possible both might happen.  That would be even better.

Steve

[billbindc]

7 minutes ago, Battlefront.com said:

In the US there is a writers' guild strike, which has halted production of anything that requires scripted speech by guild members (TV and movies, for the most part).  I am really glad to know the Ukrainians and Russian liberation guys don't need such services, because they are doing extremely well on their own.  From ISW's June 4th report:

"Holy humiliation, Batman!"

Lead sentences for two other sections:

I can't say I'm surprised by either of these observations.

For all the puff and pride the Putin regime has about being a unified, smooth running "power vertical" organization, I think it's becoming increasingly clear how chaotic and disorganized the chains of command are.  Not just military (that's been obvious since February 2022), but also civilian.

This does not bode well for a regime that may soon face an internal challenge.

Steve

The eternal truth of a mafia state from Miller's Crossing:

"You run it because people think you do. They stop thinking it you stop running it."

There's also a basic issue of bandwidth. Putin has centralized the entire war to a narrow circle around him. They  simply don't have the time or the skill set to get a handle on new developments as they are struggling already to manage old developments. Their ooda loop just can't keep up any more and control is slipping in broadening waves. 

[Battlefront.com]

This is RUMINT for now, but it would be interesting to see what happens if it turns out to be true:

https://twitter.com/UkraineNewsLive/status/1665297941341323273

Steve

[chrisl]

4 minutes ago, kevinkin said:

Great points. But has NATO lost it's advantage in night combat or is that advantage difficult to press home in this large and long war? So special ops going into a terrorist nest at night is almost irrelevant when we are talking ground warfare on the scale we are observing? And on a static front. Perhaps the advantage will shine once a war of movement arises. I kind of sort of hope so.

More likely they're not shipping 40' containers full of Gen 3 night vision goggles.  A lot of the NVG that are going over seem to be from private funders.

[Battlefront.com]

2 minutes ago, billbindc said:

The eternal truth of a mafia state from Miller's Crossing:

"You run it because people think you do. They stop thinking it you stop running it."

There's also a basic issue of bandwidth. Putin has centralized the entire war to a narrow circle around him. They  simply don't have the time or the skill set to get a handle on new developments as they are struggling already to manage old developments. Their ooda loop just can't keep up any more and control is slipping in broadening waves. 

Yup, all those messaging filters require time to run through.  In the West media control is dispersed (despite how the critics view it) and so if a media source independently verifies something, they go with what they have then update it as the story develops.  Good media tends to do a decent job of not putting out sensational news until there is some degree of verification and they also tend to caveat the HELL out of something if they wonder if the story might change out from underneath them.  Of course this doesn't always work so well, especially with popular media outlets that have inconsistent/lower standards, but it generally works pretty well and is self correcting when there's error.  Not so in a command information system.

Which is another part of Ukraine and the West's strategy since the outset of this war... push bad news into Russia faster than it can figure out how to spin it.  The result is Russians tend to get the unfiltered news and then not know what to do with it because Papa Putin's propaganda machine is too slow.

The seeming exception to this is the fast talking head shows overseen by a propagandist "moderator".  But they just wing it talk in crazy generalities, which probably doesn't install a lot of confidence in anybody other than the hardcore brainwashed supporters.

Steve

[chrisl]

8 minutes ago, Battlefront.com said:

This is RUMINT for now, but it would be interesting to see what happens if it turns out to be true:

https://twitter.com/UkraineNewsLive/status/1665297941341323273

Steve

Does the "remote controlled armored personnel carrier" concept seem a little oxymoronic to anybody else?

I suppose if uber can be headed that way for regular taxis, the same can be done with battle taxis and free up a couple more people.

[billbindc]

3 minutes ago, Battlefront.com said:

Yup, all those messaging filters require time to run through.  In the West media control is dispersed (despite how the critics view it) and so if a media source independently verifies something, they go with what they have then update it as the story develops.  Good media tends to do a decent job of not putting out sensational news until there is some degree of verification and they also tend to caveat the HELL out of something if they wonder if the story might change out from underneath them.  Of course this doesn't always work so well, especially with popular media outlets that have inconsistent/lower standards, but it generally works pretty well and is self correcting when there's error.  Not so in a command information system.

Which is another part of Ukraine and the West's strategy since the outset of this war... push bad news into Russia faster than it can figure out how to spin it.  The result is Russians tend to get the unfiltered news and then not know what to do with it because Papa Putin's propaganda machine is too slow.

The seeming exception to this is the fast talking head shows overseen by a propagandist "moderator".  But they just wing it talk in crazy generalities, which probably doesn't install a lot of confidence in anybody other than the hardcore brainwashed supporters.

Steve

And it now clearly goes way past propaganda and media. Russia is being humiliated in a direct challenge to the logic of Putin's hold on power around Belgogrod and the reaction by Russia has been sclerotic. Why? Because instead of an empowered regional governor or military district head being able to grapple with the raids, they instead must wait for action and directives from Moscow. 

[Battlefront.com]

Ooooo... this is something for billbindc:

Quote

Stories of Putin's exploits as an intelligence officer during the 1980s vary, and it is an era somewhat shrouded in mystery, as he has never commented on the period himself.

But many stories have painted him as a heroic figure, who, among other things, single-handedly defended the KGB's offices from looters and carried out top-secret secret missions such as meeting with members of the Red Army Faction, a terrorist group that wreaked havoc in West Germany and committed a series of kidnappings and assassinations.

But according to Der Spiegel's report, the majority of Putin's work was actually limited to "banal" administrative tasks.

Citing one of Putin's former colleagues at the KGB's Dresden office, it says his "work consisted primarily of endlessly reviewing applications for West German relatives' visits or searching for potential informants among foreign students at Dresden University."

https://www.businessinsider.com/vladimir-putin-was-not-soviet-super-spy-stasi-report-2023-6?utm_source=reddit.com

Does this sound like a directed messaging campaign to undermine Putin's foundational image at a time when it is under threat?  Could be!

Steve

[billbindc]

3 minutes ago, Battlefront.com said:

Ooooo... this is something for billbindc:

Does this sound like a directed messaging campaign to undermine Putin's foundational image at a time when it is under threat?  Could be!

Steve

While Putin can't love it, it's not something most Russians will hear and if they do it's not something that will surprise them. The mythologizing about VVP has been obvious and well known for a long time. In fact, one of the big takes on him when he ascended from Saint Petersburg to Moscow under Yeltsin's wing was that everyone was surprised such a plodder somehow landed the gig. 

[Battlefront.com]

I don't think this has been mentioned yet.  The MoD says they have things in Belgorod under control, the Russian local authorities say the same thing.  Prig says they don't and he's willing to go in there, without authorization, and fix the problems.  Now Kadyrov is backhandedly acknowledging that things are not under control, but he could change that if asked to.  What a mess!

Steve

[sburke]

worth a read

Amazon.com: The Man Without a Face: The Unlikely Rise of Vladimir Putin eBook : Gessen, Masha: Kindle Store

 

[kevinkin]

19 minutes ago, chrisl said:

More likely they're not shipping 40' containers full of Gen 3 night vision goggles.  A lot of the NVG that are going over seem to be from private funders.

If that is true, it sort of makes the point the NATO is missing out on an asymmetric advantage to give to the UA. Maybe or maybe not, night combat could be one other critical vulnerability to exploit against Russia.  

[Battlefront.com]

3 minutes ago, billbindc said:

While Putin can't love it, it's not something most Russians will hear and if they do it's not something that will surprise them. The mythologizing about VVP has been obvious and well known for a long time. In fact, one of the big takes on him when he ascended from Saint Petersburg to Moscow under Yeltsin's wing was that everyone was surprised such a plodder somehow landed the gig. 

What raised a bit of an eyebrow is why is this coming up NOW in this form?  Yes, Putinologists have long disputed Putin's credentials and much of their evidence comes from within Russia.  But this?  It seems deliberately timed.  Like someone was holding back on doing this until now.

How significant is this?  Shrug... likely not very on its own, but if this is some sort of precursor event.  Obviously way too soon to say, but I've made a note of it

Steve

[chrisl]

2 minutes ago, kevinkin said:

If that is true, it sort of makes the point the NATO is missing out on an asymmetric advantage to give to the UA. Maybe or maybe not, night combat could be one other critical vulnerability to exploit against Russia.  

Yeah, it could offer a big advantage in attack on multiple scales.  Maybe something to watch for as the offensive becomes visible.

[Battlefront.com]

It was referenced earlier by someone that the Russians are claiming the wiped out a battalion's worth of Ukrainian troops yesterday.  I just found one of the sources for this totally reliable Russian reporting and thought it would be fun to post it here:

Steve

[Fenris]

Yep, teh info wars, they have begun.

 

[dan/california]

 

1 hour ago, Battlefront.com said:

In the US there is a writers' guild strike, which has halted production of anything that requires scripted speech by guild members (TV and movies, for the most part).  I am really glad to know the Ukrainians and Russian liberation guys don't need such services, because they are doing extremely well on their own.  From ISW's June 4th report:

"Holy humiliation, Batman!"

Lead sentences for two other sections:

I can't say I'm surprised by either of these observations.

For all the puff and pride the Putin regime has about being a unified, smooth running "power vertical" organization, I think it's becoming increasingly clear how chaotic and disorganized the chains of command are.  Not just military (that's been obvious since February 2022), but also civilian.

This does not bode well for a regime that may soon face an internal challenge.

Steve

 

34 minutes ago, billbindc said:

And it now clearly goes way past propaganda and media. Russia is being humiliated in a direct challenge to the logic of Putin's hold on power around Belgogrod and the reaction by Russia has been sclerotic. Why? Because instead of an empowered regional governor or military district head being able to grapple with the raids, they instead must wait for action and directives from Moscow. 

 

50 minutes ago, billbindc said:

The eternal truth of a mafia state from Miller's Crossing:

"You run it because people think you do. They stop thinking it you stop running it."

There's also a basic issue of bandwidth. Putin has centralized the entire war to a narrow circle around him. They  simply don't have the time or the skill set to get a handle on new developments as they are struggling already to manage old developments. Their ooda loop just can't keep up any more and control is slipping in broadening waves.

 

Quote

 

https://www.jedleahenry.org/journalism/2019/11/11/putins-memory-of-the-berlin-wall

Putin’s phone call for military support was met with complete abandonment. The Red Army officer on the other end of the line replied that “we cannot do anything without orders from Moscow” and “Moscow is silent.”

 

"Moscow is silent " is the most important moment in Putin's life until Yeltsin brings him to Moscow. It is some sort of grand historical joke that he has built a regime that seems to be in the process of repeating the mistake.

Edited June 5, 2023 by dan/california

[dan/california]

1 hour ago, Battlefront.com said:

This has major implications for the next mobilization.  If these numbers are accurate, roughly 25% of the men mobilized came from occupied territories who have next to no influence within Russia.  They, like the far eastern Russians, are "out of sight, out of mind" for regime's core population base in European Russia.  It is unclear how much more they can easily scoop out of either the far east or the occupied territories, which means the European Russians might be hit harder this time than last time.  Since Putin is eager to not upset this group by mobilizing them, he might find himself having to push the safety margin a bit more this year than last.

The flip side of this is if Russian authorities dig too deeply into the "out of sight, out of mind" populations he risks one or more of them doing something to destabilize the internal politics of Russia.

If either happen, that's good for Ukraine.  It is even possible both might happen.  That would be even better.

Steve

This was discussed some infinity of pages ago, but if Russia has gotten 75% of the adult male population of the D/LPR killed or crippled for life they would not nearly as problematic for Ukraine to run after the war as many people assume.

[Offshoot]

47 minutes ago, billbindc said:

While Putin can't love it, it's not something most Russians will hear and if they do it's not something that will surprise them. The mythologizing about VVP has been obvious and well known for a long time. In fact, one of the big takes on him when he ascended from Saint Petersburg to Moscow under Yeltsin's wing was that everyone was surprised such a plodder somehow landed the gig. 

A rising plodder needs a good pair of shoes: When 'shoe salesman' Vladimir Putin visited New Zealand - https://www.rnz.co.nz/national/programmes/sunday/audio/2018834000/when-shoe-salesman-vladimir-putin-visited-new-zealand

[chrisl]

Wow - Scholz finally has some strong public words supporting Ukraine.  Germany has been quietly ramping up the actual materiel support, but Olaf must finally be feeling like he's his coalition behind him on this.