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How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?


Probus

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4 hours ago, Yet said:

Leading to highly specific engineering. Which not only caused extensive foundation, but also the methods of the construction and were untypical

Untypical, expensive, built to "lowest bid" in one of the most corrupt regimes in the world. It's amazing the thing's still standing even without explosive perturbation and hours-long petrochem fire insult.

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32 minutes ago, Seedorf81 said:

Just now:

Dutch government wants to buy dozens of extra Leopard1-tanks for Ukraine.

Problem is that they wanna buy 'm from a Swiss company, and the Swiss government needs to approve the buy. The well-known "neutrality-stance" from the Swiss can cause delay or a "NO".

To be continued..

 

The Swiss might possibly amend their laws to allow re-export of weapons to Ukraine, next year:

https://www.swissinfo.ch/eng/swiss-parliament-committee-recommends-eased-weapons-re-export-rules/48507340
 

Quote

After months of refusing to re-export Swiss war materiel to Ukraine, a parliamentary committee in Switzerland has recommended easing export controls

Quote

No change is expected to take place before next year. In addition, amendments to the law could be challenged to a referendum, where Swiss voters would have the final say.

 

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46 minutes ago, Battlefront.com said:

More from the Russian liberation groups they are, once again, on Russian Federation territory.  Specifically, Shebekino:
 

https://www.newsweek.com/tanks-russia-ukraine-belgorod-freedom-legion-volunteer-corps-border-1803756

Videos uploaded from the RVK documenting the latest incursion:

 

https://www.reddit.com/r/LoveForUkraine/comments/13xet8t/breaking_the_monokrystal_factory_in_shebekino_is/

Steve

Russia claims they already destroyed them:

https://ria.ru/20230601/shebekino-1875643689.html
Google translation below:

Quote

MOSCOW, June 1 - RIA Novosti. The Russian military destroyed more than fifty Ukrainian militants who were trying to invade the Belgorod region, the Ministry of Defense reported on the Telegram channel .
"
"In total, more than 50 Ukrainian terrorists, four armored combat vehicles, a combat vehicle of the BM-21 Grad multiple launch rocket system, one pickup truck were destroyed on the border territory from Ukraine," the publication says.

 

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10 minutes ago, cesmonkey said:

Russia claims they already destroyed them:

https://ria.ru/20230601/shebekino-1875643689.html
Google translation below:

 

Heh... of course they have!  I don't doubt that they CAN crush a small incursion like this, but the last time they said they did it was pretty clear that they in fact did not.

Steve

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20 minutes ago, akd said:

Poor Pantsir can't even defend itself:

https://twitter.com/DefMon3/status/1664340320673230848?s=20

Nice!

Based on some assumptions about why the guy was filming and why he was looking rearward, they detected the drones and were preparing to defend against them.  Their first response was to launch a missile at a fairly steep angle, the truck moved, fired its autocannon while still in motion, then got struck by the kamikaze drone.

Presuming there was only one kamikaze drone, it was probably already too late to use the missile as the drone had to have been fairly close by this point.  Depends on minimum engagement range and certain presumptions about the drone's speed.

I have a feeling that the Pantsir is not good at firing on the move against such a small and fast moving target.  Which means the 30mm autocannon burst was bound to miss because the vehicle was in motion.

Steve

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3 hours ago, DesertFox said:

Yep, thats why the US make the deal with Jordan. "Gepard Deluxe" so to speak or Cheetah CA3. I had the pleasure to climb over one in Todendorf when we were with our Leos in Putlos some 30 years ago. Do we have any hint how many vehicles Jordan has for sale?

I think Jordan has 60 systems.

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1 hour ago, billbindc said:

Notable that Utkin calls himself "Commander" of Wagner given that he founded it (after Slavonic was crushed) directly under Putin's control. 

Affair with Chechens is serious, since he very rarely speaks out*. Also there is a litany of wagnerites/Russian soldiers who openly mock goatlovers for avoiding fighting quoted on Grey Zone channel; some have still high opinion about Ahmat-Sila force, though.

 

*Btw. Utkin is one hell of a media looser. Every second person in Europe now probably heard about the group that bears his name, but he as its de facto creator is almost unrecognizeable.

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3 hours ago, Battlefront.com said:

This is not surprising at all.  The bridge itself was originally constructed with great haste by Russians (i.e. corrupt and prone to half assing).  The repairs were also done with great haste and by Russians.  This particular section appears to have been one damaged during the explosion, but it was not replaced as it should have been.  That would have cost more time and money, so they probably tried sealing the cracks and leaving it as it was.  That won't work.  Once rebar has been exposed to salt it keeps deteriorating (from what I understand).

However, this sort of damage is probably not fatal for many years.  Therefore, it's more a source for humor than it is structural failure.

Steve

Whats really interesting is how its the same damage across two different and separate support points. These are only the ones we've seen, there could well be more. The consistency of fracture patterns implies its an effect driven by the shared construction methodology. 

It doesnt seem close to failure, there's no spalling, debris or exposed rebar as ChrisL notes.

A good thing for the Ivans is that the bad winter weather is behind them now.

To amend my idea re Storm shadow, it might actually be better to hit an adjacent column/base, cause that to fully collapse and gain the secondary effects of these damaged columns also failing under the added and unusual loads/tensions. 2 or 3 for 1.

Even if they dont fail directly they would be utterly untrustworthy.

Putin poles, we could call them...

Edited by Kinophile
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