How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?

[akd]

Cherry on top: Su-35 was almost certainly flying SEAD for tonight’s round of cruise missiles.

[sburke]

21 minutes ago, dan/california said:

Ockham's razor would say that it was the same system that was just used to down the two planes and two helicopters northeast of Kharkiv last week. Their is some indication that was a Patriot system, so either they have one for the Southern front as well, or maybe they have one the are driving around to keep the Russians guessing. It also at least possible that one of the long range NATO AAMs has been integrated onto a Ukrainian platform, and they are putting the bit about the Patriot out there as disinformation. The Russians should have been able to figure out what happened last week, right? The could just keep picking bits out of cornfields until they found some pieces of the missiles, if nothing else. If the latest one landed in the water? then either they have the radar tracks to figure it out or they don't. I am more than a little curious if the pilots ever new if they had been fired on?

 

They could also be factoring in if Russians have shown a propensity to not change their routes.  The US had made a similar mistake in Somalia and got a bit lazy in raid preparations.  Eventually your enemy will make you pay for it.

[chrisl]

25 minutes ago, dan/california said:

Ockham's razor would say that it was the same system that was just used to down the two planes and two helicopters northeast of Kharkiv last week. Their is some indication that was a Patriot system, so either they have one for the Southern front as well, or maybe they have one the are driving around to keep the Russians guessing. It also at least possible that one of the long range NATO AAMs has been integrated onto a Ukrainian platform, and they are putting the bit about the Patriot out there as disinformation. The Russians should have been able to figure out what happened last week, right? The could just keep picking bits out of cornfields until they found some pieces of the missiles, if nothing else. If the latest one landed in the water? then either they have the radar tracks to figure it out or they don't. I am more than a little curious if the pilots ever new if they had been fired on?

 

My best guess is that RU just doesn't have enough people with a clue to operate the radars.  They must have them, and if they're operable they should have the performance needed for air defense.  Until very recently, Ukraine has been using largely the same* old Soviet stuff for air defense that Russia has, and has been using it effectively to shoot down incoming missles/drones/planes.  Russia got essentially identical stuff from the USSR and has done a bit of further development, and seems to be incapable of detecting anything. (c.f. Moskva)

*ignoring all the NATO remote detection aircraft that might be providing early warning of where to look, as well as possible yet-to-be-described NATO supplied systems that might be providing early warning from inside Ukraine.

[zinz]

1 minute ago, chrisl said:

My best guess is that RU just doesn't have enough people with a clue to operate the radars.  They must have them, and if they're operable they should have the performance needed for air defense.  Until very recently, Ukraine has been using largely the same* old Soviet stuff for air defense that Russia has, and has been using it effectively to shoot down incoming missles/drones/planes.  Russia got essentially identical stuff from the USSR and has done a bit of further development, and seems to be incapable of detecting anything. (c.f. Moskva)

*ignoring all the NATO remote detection aircraft that might be providing early warning of where to look, as well as possible yet-to-be-described NATO supplied systems that might be providing early warning from inside Ukraine.

Well it's mostly a question of integration. 

https://xxtomcooperxx.substack.com/p/ukraine-air-war-assault-mode-part-8c2

Tom Coopers current mini series should answer those questions.

Short summary: no one wants to turn on their radar as that means you are seen and can be killed. On the other hand you really want to turn on your radar to do your job of detection and destroying targets. It's very similar in my mind with sonar and submarine warfare. Running around blind but with a flashlight. If you turn on the flashlight you will see a little bit but everyone sees you. So in the end it's mostly a game of deception, and making the most out of the available information. 

 

And Russia has successfully denied most of the airspace over the front to Ukraine. 

 

[dan/california]

4 minutes ago, zinz said:

And Russia has successfully denied most of the airspace over the front to Ukraine. 

For the Russian Air Force to be chuffed that it can keep Ukraine from flying serious CAS over the Russian lines is the weakest flex in the history of mankind. The Russian Air Force has comprehensively failed to live up to even the lowest possible pre war expectations. Ukraine wasn't supposed HAVE an air force at the start of week 2, we are at about week ~62, and there are Ukrainian planes flying every day that the Russians have to respect and plan around. When Ukraine is flying forty or fifty F-16s I fully expect the Russian Air Force to park itself in Siberia and drink Vodka.

[zinz]

4 minutes ago, dan/california said:

For the Russian Air Force to be chuffed that it can keep Ukraine from flying serious CAS over the Russian lines is the weakest flex in the history of mankind. The Russian Air Force has comprehensively failed to live up to even the lowest possible pre war expectations. Ukraine wasn't supposed HAVE an air force at the start of week 2, we are at about week ~62, and there are Ukrainian planes flying every day that the Russians have to respect and plan around. When Ukraine is flying forty or fifty F-16s I fully expect the Russian Air Force to park itself in Siberia and drink Vodka.

Sure, but I understood the question to be about ground based systems. Not airplanes. And those are doing their job after the chaotic opening of the war. 

[dan/california]

 

Quote

https://www.nytimes.com/2023/05/21/us/politics/start-ups-weapons-pentagon-procurement.html

 

The U.S. military is not an easy customer...

[kevinkin]

46 minutes ago, dan/california said:

Russian Air Force

I think we knew that tactically they have been a basket case for years. So, Russia likely took anything of quality (people equipment and airframes etc.. ) into reserve to maintain a strategic threat. NATO knows this and I think we will start seeing more UA close air support. This is a weakness Russia has that needs to be exploited. I posted a few days ago how attack choppers could be able to maneuver in high risk airspace. Using EW, you create brief corridors for raids. This tactic famously did not work in Iraq because (for some reason) attack choppers and SEAD were not part of the SOP. For those interested: 

https://www.airandspaceforces.com/article/1003najaf/

Edited May 21, 2023 by kevinkin

[DesertFox]

Lights off in Simferopol

 

 

 

Edited May 21, 2023 by DesertFox

[chrisl]

1 hour ago, zinz said:

Well it's mostly a question of integration. 

https://xxtomcooperxx.substack.com/p/ukraine-air-war-assault-mode-part-8c2

Tom Coopers current mini series should answer those questions.

Short summary: no one wants to turn on their radar as that means you are seen and can be killed. On the other hand you really want to turn on your radar to do your job of detection and destroying targets. It's very similar in my mind with sonar and submarine warfare. Running around blind but with a flashlight. If you turn on the flashlight you will see a little bit but everyone sees you. So in the end it's mostly a game of deception, and making the most out of the available information. 

 

And Russia has successfully denied most of the airspace over the front to Ukraine. 

 

But you missed half the point: Ukraine has been using largely the same equipment with their mirror army and have done well with missile defense. If it’s a question of integration, it still comes back to competent Ukrainian missile defense vs. much less competent Russian defense.

[Seminole]

1 hour ago, sburke said:

They could also be factoring in if Russians have shown a propensity to not change their routes.  The US had made a similar mistake in Somalia and got a bit lazy in raid preparations.  Eventually your enemy will make you pay for it.

Linebacker II is a much worse example:

 

 

[zinz]

1 hour ago, chrisl said:

My best guess is that RU just doesn't have enough people with a clue to operate the radars.  They must have them, and if they're operable they should have the performance needed for air defense.  Until very recently, Ukraine has been using largely the same* old Soviet stuff for air defense that Russia has, and has been using it effectively to shoot down incoming missles/drones/planes.  Russia got essentially identical stuff from the USSR and has done a bit of further development, and seems to be incapable of detecting anything. (c.f. Moskva)

*ignoring all the NATO remote detection aircraft that might be providing early warning of where to look, as well as possible yet-to-be-described NATO supplied systems that might be providing early warning from inside Ukraine.

 

18 minutes ago, chrisl said:

But you missed half the point: Ukraine has been using largely the same equipment with their mirror army and have done well with missile defense. If it’s a question of integration, it still comes back to competent Ukrainian missile defense vs. much less competent Russian defense.

Correct. But in the post I responded to you were arguing about individual crews manning the systems. But it is unlikely that in this "mirror" match up individual crews are making most of the difference in performance you can see. That was the point I was trying to make. Also go back to last fall. The interception rates of the Russian missile attacks were much worse than now. Like the Russians developed better technics to intercept at least some GLMRS. The mirror concept holds up for some of the used equipment but neither for what the opposite party is using offensively and not for the whole integrated air defense system. Comparing systems directly when they are taken out of context of the overall situation is not too meaningful. 

 

[akd]

30th Mech Bde reducing a Russian position dug into a destroyed bridge and embankment:

 

[billbindc]

Pretty clear that Ukraine has a strong ground game within Russia: 

https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/ukraine-assassinated-russian-propagandists-admits-intelligence-chief-fl33rn5vc

 

[Beleg85]

Something was heavily hit in Dnipro this night:

 

[Offshoot]

-Russian propagandists acknowledge ammo shortages
-Apparently Russia has had ammo shortages for over two centuries now
-Simonyan suggests people go to the ammo factories for 2 hours after work to help make ammo
-Solovyov stands up for industry and mansplains it is about capacity and not manpower
-The take home message is that good Russians should stop moaning about it and Russia is all alone anyway

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-1L_bs4hCOQ&t=2s

 

[Vet 0369]

9 hours ago, Beleg85 said:

One of more unusual and interesting players in background of this conflict is Japan.

https://www.japantimes.co.jp/2023/05/19/special-supplements/japan-offers-comprehensive-assistance-ukraine/

I read that Japanese PM just promised more direct military support in Hiroshima, too, in the form of combat vehicles and perosnnal eqiupment. There are rumours among some millexperts that Japanese are also very active in prividing signal and humint intelligence, but this will probably be widely only known years from now.  Several interviewed volunteers in Int. Legion mentioned that they were surprised to see not-small amount of Japan volunteers, too.

To be honest, this would basically stun me. If I’m not mistaken, Japan has very specific provisions in their Constitution to prevent any sort of “extra-territorial” involvement in conflicts. I would be very interested to see how the Government could circumvent those Constitutional provisions.

[sburke]

9 minutes ago, Vet 0369 said:

To be honest, this would basically stun me. If I’m not mistaken, Japan has very specific provisions in their Constitution to prevent any sort of “extra-territorial” involvement in conflicts. I would be very interested to see how the Government could circumvent those Constitutional provisions.

They have been pushing the boundaries on this for a bit now, but with a very questionable amount of internal support.  The real issue is China, but the supplying of arms to Ukraine may be part of a strategy to loosen the public perception.

Pacifist Japan unveils biggest military build-up since World War Two | Reuters

Japan approves long-range weapons to counter growing threats from China, North Korea and Russia | CNN

Edited May 22, 2023 by sburke

[Vet 0369]

13 minutes ago, sburke said:

They have been pushing the boundaries on this for a bit now, but with a very questionable amount of internal support.  The real issue is China, but the supplying of arms to Ukraine may be part of a strategy to loosen the public perception.

Pacifist Japan unveils biggest military build-up since World War Two | Reuters

Japan approves long-range weapons to counter growing threats from China, North Korea and Russia | CNN

Danke 

[Battlefront.com]

2 hours ago, zinz said:

Like the Russians developed better technics to intercept at least some GLMRS.

To the best of my knowledge Russia has yet to shoot down even one GLMRS.  What has been reported is that they've messed with the guidance systems through EW.  The missiles hit will full force, but not exactly where they were aimed.  I've seen no reports as of yet to detail how many times this has happened and to what degree accuracy was affected.

Steve

[Battlefront.com]

2 hours ago, akd said:

30th Mech Bde reducing a Russian position dug into a destroyed bridge and embankment:

 

Excellent example of overwatch where a Russian creeps out and is apparently trying to have a look around.  He got pounded by small arms fire and then the position was hit by a very well aimed LATW.

Steve

[Battlefront.com]

8 hours ago, Seminole said:

Rumors continue to spread around the sudden disappearance of the Commander-in-Chief of the Armed Forces of Ukraine Valery Zaluzhny.

Looks like 2 out of 3 of the named victims of Russian assassination attempts have been proven completely false, 1 out of 3 is a little questionable.  From ISW's report last night:

Quote

Ukrainian Deputy Defense Minister Hanna Malyar reported that Russian sources are falsely alleging that high-ranking Ukrainian military commanders have recently died, likely to demoralize the Ukrainian forces and to portray Russian forces as constraining Ukrainian counteroffensive capabilities. Malyar stated that these information operations allege that Russian strikes have recently killed Ukrainian Territorial Defense Forces Commander General Ihor Tantsyura, Ukrainian Eastern Grouping of Forces Commander Colonel General Oleksandr Syrskyi, and Ukrainian Commander in Chief General Valeriy Zaluzhnyi.[16] Prigozhin also amplified the information operation alleging that Zaluzhnyi might be dead on May 20.[17] These information operations are particularly absurd given that Zaluzhnyi spoke with US Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff General Mark Milley on May 19 and that Syrskyi appeared on Ukrainian television on May 16.[18] Ukrainian officials have denied previous Russian claims that a May 10 strike on a Ukrainian command post in the Bakhmut area killed several high-ranking Ukrainian military officials and that Wagner forces killed Tantsyura while he was en route to Bakhmut on May 2.[19] ISW has previously assessed that Russian ultranationalists are increasingly seeking to frame any Russian operations as delaying potential Ukrainian counteroffensive actions.[20]

And an article on the supposed assassination of Tantsyura:

https://news.yahoo.com/tdf-commander-tantsyura-survived-assassination-113600031.html

As ISW reported, the only recent account of Zalhuzhnyi was a phone call and TG post.  I doubt the US gov't would go along with an explicit lie like that, however the call and posting could have been done from a hospital bed.  So, as of yet there's good evidence that he's alive, no solid evidence that he's unharmed.

Steve

[Seminole]

3 minutes ago, Battlefront.com said:

As ISW reported, the only recent account of Zalhuzhnyi was a phone call and TG post.  I doubt the US gov't would go along with an explicit lie like that, however the call and posting could have been done from a hospital bed.  So, as of yet there's good evidence that he's alive, no solid evidence that he's unharmed.

Yeah, I'm reminded of different claims that American or Canadian generals were getting captured in the first few months of the war.

The most 'solid evidence' is the dog that didn't bark - he apparently hasn't been in front of the cameras for a while.

[Battlefront.com]

2 hours ago, Beleg85 said:

Something was heavily hit in Dnipro this night:

 

Sounds like at least a few of the explosions were interceptions:

https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/world/explosions-rock-dnipro-air-defence-is-activated/ar-AA1bskVY?cvid=1cdf10e8faea46b7bafc1ba670ab0645&ei=59

Steve

[Battlefront.com]

11 minutes ago, Seminole said:

Yeah, I'm reminded of different claims that American or Canadian generals were getting captured in the first few months of the war.

Cripes, the list of lies coming out of the Kremlin involving NATO involvement is miles long and pretty pervasive since 2013.

11 minutes ago, Seminole said:

The most 'solid evidence' is the dog that didn't bark - he apparently hasn't been in front of the cameras for a while.

Yup, which is why even though Russia is confirmed wrong/lying about 2 of the 3, I can only say that because it's been satisfactorily proven untrue.  For Zalhuzhnyi we can, at present, only surmise that he is not dead.  Which is not the same as unharmed.

Steve