How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?

[TheVulture]

17 minutes ago, Battlefront.com said:

Yeah, I've been wondering about the definitions of "votes counted".  Currently it's at nearly 94%, but if large numbers are stuck in a recount, they're probably in the "votes counted" column but not in the "official results" column.

At the very least it seems Erdogan can't quickly declare victory and squash the recounts.  Seems to me the best he can do is manipulate it into a recount.

Unfortunately, there's a lot of would-be tyrants in the West watching this and trying to learn some tricks to use at home.  Having the ability to challenge the vote counts before they are provisionally tallied is, I must say, very clever.

Steve

Meanwhile the Supreme Election Council is reporting only 69% of the votes are counted so far (as of 10 minutes ago):

Quote

The head of Turkey's Supreme Election Council (YSK), Ahmet Yavas, has spoken for the second time tonight.

He says some 69.12% of the votes have now been counted.

He adds representatives of all political parties are monitoring how YSK officials work on the data coming from the ballot boxes and that there are no questions over the process.

Again, he hasn't given any preliminary results, adding: "In the coming hours, when we have the results from all the ballot boxes when they have all be opened, we will share them with the public."

(from BBC)

[Beleg85]

32 minutes ago, Battlefront.com said:

Oh, for sure I think the youth are clued in.  But how about the older generations?  In Ukraine it took two Russian invasions before the bulk of the population understood their true relationship with Russia is.  For many the first war was confusing and foggy, but the second one clear as day.

But as Beleg85 said, the protests of 2020 were an incredible surprise to just about everybody.  As it was happening I was reminded of the earlier uprisings in Hungary, Czechoslovakia, and Poland prior to the wall coming down.  Everybody, including the people within those countries, underestimated how aware the people were that they were being screwed over.

Note these people still have families in the country, and as I am aware no reliable sociological data is available as to views of entire population. We only know for sure society is decisevly anti-war, including military (in terms of being dragged into it, which de facto is already partially a reality- fortunatelly, Ukrainian leadership wisely choose to restrain themselves as to response,a  fact we should laud). But this is not Russia, people are not accustomed to being beaten daily by their masters as some form of political ritual; that's why forced coercion Lukashenko choose is terribly poor way to stay in power in 2020.

I don't believe in any revolution or even protests currently, but if Putin himself would crumble somehow it may be another matter. Time will tell. It is also true that western support for Tsichanouskaya (Zelensky was just noted for talking with her in meeting with Pope) may actually be a poisoned kiss from the West, given level of zombification in Belorussian domestic media. I know several people here who prefered to keep door open for possible multivector politics in future political landscape there, in the hope of perhaps reaching something like finlandization status vs. both Russia and the West; firm Western support for opposition from 2020, while laudable from moral point of view, was unecessarly inflaming step for them, puting things on knife edge.

Edited May 14, 2023 by Beleg85

[Battlefront.com]

19 minutes ago, Beleg85 said:

I don't believe in any revolution or even protests currently, but if Putin himself would crumble somehow it may be another matter. Time will tell.

So you think there will be an effectively unopposed transfer of power after Luka is out?  My gut says there will be, but again... I don't know enough about Belarus to have a more informed opinion other than historical precedent and general cause/effect stuff.

Steve

[Beleg85]

17 minutes ago, Battlefront.com said:

So you think there will be an effectively unopposed transfer of power after Luka is out?  My gut says there will be, but again... I don't know enough about Belarus to have a more informed opinion other than historical precedent and general cause/effect stuff.

Steve

Me neither, just some uneducated guess. A lot (if not everything) depends how much war devastate Russia and their ability to project power, including soft. I wouldn't be too optimistic in short and middle term, Belarus is too firmly controleld for now and if anything, large part of population understand geopolitical dangers of not siding with Kremlin. If Putin will play it calmly, he can secure some status quo forcing his candidate (or candidates). Plus Kraze is right up to a point that large parts are still pro-Russian, so we shouldn't envision Belarussians only through lenses of volunteers and emigrees. Nobody wants more turmoil in the region, including Washington and even Chinese (I kid you not- they were very interested 2 years ago what is happening in this country that was important transport hub for their goods).

But long term  is a guess. Given demographics it doesn't look good for any of Russian satellites, even Kazakhstan and Armenia are fed up with Putin and his way of dealing with things.

Edited May 14, 2023 by Beleg85

[Kinophile]

Meanwhile,  in Finland:

[Kinophile]

Oh man it's getting to that time... 

DECAP TIME! 

Glad to see confirmation of the brigade level killings.  

 

[Fenris]

 

[Fenris]

Browsing the twitters this morning, I'm getting the sense there's an uptick in ammo and logistics strikes going on.

Quite a few small ones yesterday and a big one somewhere in Luhansk in the past few hours apparently.

[DesertFox]

As the old proverb goes: "All is fair in love and war". Getting your enemy drunk as a skunk isnt exactly against geneva convention, is it?

 

 

[akd]

93rd Mech Bde tanks counterattacking in Bakhmut.  Looks like they are using mix of WP and HE:

 

[DesertFox]

Luhansk region. Yet unspecified.

 

 

[billbindc]

The Prigozhin story just keeps getting better: 

https://www.washingtonpost.com/national-security/2023/05/14/prigozhin-wagner-ukraine-leaked-documents/

[Beleg85]

29 minutes ago, billbindc said:

The Prigozhin story just keeps getting better: 

https://www.washingtonpost.com/national-security/2023/05/14/prigozhin-wagner-ukraine-leaked-documents/

Now that is interesting- another odd claim in series of lately odd articles by WaPo...if not coming from leaked documents, I would say it is Ukrainian PsyOps to divide Russians. But since it was disclosed by Texeira, it may be valid and heat situation pretty nicely among Russians.

This will be like looking tribe of orcs infighting. The Boss may finally be forced to take firm position in this argument.

[dan/california]

1 minute ago, Beleg85 said:

Now that is interesting- another odd claim in series of lately odd articles by WaPo...if not coming from leaked documents, I would say it is Ukrainian PsyOps to divide Russians. But since it was disclosed by Texeira, it may be valid and heat situation pretty nicely among Russians.

This will be like looking tribe of orcs infighting. The Boss may finally be forced to take firm position in this argument.

I am sure he Kremlin still has a spot on the wall for detached heads, I wonder whose we will see first...

[billbindc]

13 minutes ago, Beleg85 said:

Now that is interesting- another odd claim in series of lately odd articles by WaPo...if not coming from leaked documents, I would say it is Ukrainian PsyOps to divide Russians. But since it was disclosed by Texeira, it may be valid and heat situation pretty nicely among Russians.

This will be like looking tribe of orcs infighting. The Boss may finally be forced to take firm position in this argument.

It cuts a multitude of ways. Prigozhin certainly would have Kremlin approved reasons for having GUR contacts. Prisoner exchange is the obvious one. Another would be to create provocations and transmit misdirection. But Prigozhin also is operating in a milieu in which such approvals aren't written down anywhere so that they can be turned against one at any time. In addition, he is in an elite power struggle in the Kremlin so it is entirely believable that he would attempt to negotiate a 'victory' in Bakhmut and embarrass his bete noirs, Gerasimov and Shoigu. It is a good example of a pawn imagining that he's a player. 

I don't rate his long term chances. 

[Beleg85]

19 minutes ago, dan/california said:

I am sure he Kremlin still has a spot on the wall for detached heads, I wonder whose we will see first...

They may as well ignore entire issue or explain it in terms of some special undercover operation to fool Ukrainians. Frankly this proposal looks very odd, even for muscovite minds habitually susceptible to various conspiracies taking place in their state. What exactly "Russians positions" would be worth giving up Bakhmut? It means coordinates on some command nodes with HVT's?

Independent nationalists will be furious, though; distrust will grow even more.

Edited May 15, 2023 by Beleg85

[kevinkin]

https://www.thedrive.com/the-war-zone/ukraine-ammo-storage-site-obliterated-where-huge-fireball-seen

What exactly was stored at this site at the time of the blast also isn't clear. It likely held old dilapidated ammo and explosive material that dated back deeply into the Cold War era, but some have posited that newer ammunition used to support the war effort may have also been stored there. Regardless, Russia looks to be targeting these facilities to destroy any relevant materiel stored in them or at least to cause a massively destructive secondary blasts.

Another bump in the road. If anything of importance was in storage, it should have well defended. But let's see how this one develops. 

 

[paxromana]

1 hour ago, DesertFox said:

As the old proverb goes: "All is fair in love and war". Getting your enemy drunk as a skunk isnt exactly against geneva convention, is it?

Chemical Warfare? 

[Beleg85]

7 minutes ago, billbindc said:

It cuts a multitude of ways. Prigozhin certainly would have Kremlin approved reasons for having GUR contacts. Prisoner exchange is the obvious one. Another would be to create provocations and transmit misdirection. But Prigozhin also is operating in a milieu in which such approvals aren't written down anywhere so that they can be turned against one at any time. In addition, he is in an elite power struggle in the Kremlin so it is entirely believable that he would attempt to negotiate a 'victory' in Bakhmut and embarrass his bete noirs, Gerasimov and Shoigu. It is a good example of a pawn imagining that he's a player. 

I don't rate his long term chances. 

Kremlin may indeed find it better to redirect some rage towards MoD instead of Prigozhin, who is popular among nats. Hard to say, but if Z-public will believe that Prig was acting as Putin's consigliere, effectively against Russian war effort...hell, it would mean president betrayed soldiers. Distrust will grow even more. Putin will perhaps finally be forced to take position in this entire conflict...or not.

Interesting days ahead.

[billbindc]

7 minutes ago, Beleg85 said:

Kremlin may indeed find it better to redirect some rage towards MoD instead of Prigozhin, who is popular among nats. Hard to say, but if Z-public will believe that Prig was acting as Putin's consigliere, effectively against Russian war effort...hell, it would mean president betrayed soldiers. Distrust will grow even more. Putin will perhaps finally be forced to take position in this entire conflict...or not.

Interesting days ahead.

It's notable that this wasn't an intentional disclosure. The GUR talked to Putin, in Africa among other places, and didn't trust him but they also didn't try to burn him. In that sense, it's a pure leak. That will say to other actors in the Kremlin bear pit that maybe he really was trying to use the Ukrainians in their power struggle. They certainly now have every reason to claim to believe it anyway.

[Kinophile]

What if... Putin deliberately let's Belorussia slid Into violent chaos and weaponizes the refugee flood to distract/strain UKR/POL? 

It would be a very...Putin...move..

[dan/california]

44 minutes ago, Beleg85 said:

They may as well ignore entire issue or explain it in terms of some special undercover operation to fool Ukrainians. Frankly this proposal looks very odd, even for muscovite minds habitually susceptible to various conspiracies taking place in their state. What exactly "Russians positions" would be worth giving up Bakhmut? It means coordinates on some command nodes with HVT's?

Independent nationalists will be furious, though; distrust will grow even more.

A leak like the Texieara one is really a test for the competing intelligence agencies. What misinformation can be fed into the global info system at what point in the process, and then spun for advantage? We don't know how much of the original stuff was fed to Texiera after he was identified , but before it became public? We don't know how much of the extra chunk the WaPo got an exclusive on was real? And as in any poker game so much of it is selling the bluff well. There will be some excellent books in a few years.

[Peregrine]

The below is an exert of an ABC News (Australian) story about Wagner. Most of it would not be new to readers of this forum but it did have descriptions of small unit tactics that I hadn't really seen anywhere else. The initial wave of 2 groups of 8 are "new" fighters (prisoners / recruits post conflict start) and the old or professional fighters are those with experience prior to Ukraine. The story isn't overly long but I have pasted the interesting bit below after the link.

Vladimir Putin needs Yevgeny Prigozhin and his Wagner Group mercenaries in Ukraine more than anyone else.

"The Ukrainian special forces officer explained to me that the way the Wagner fighters have been operating has been in groups of eight. A team of eight will run, crawl and zigzag towards the Ukrainian line, he said. The team consists of a team leader, a drone operator and six "mules". The mules carry as much ammunition as possible, including rocket propelled grenade launchers and machine guns.

Once the team of eight advances 20 or 30 metres — if indeed they survive — they then try to dig a trench which will form the beginning of the new Russian frontline. They then try to hide themselves and their weapons in this trench. Then a second wave of Wagner fighters will join them and try to make this trench deeper and longer.

If they survive and establish this new frontline, then professional Wagner fighters – the "old Wagners" will join them, or, sometimes, professional Russian fighters may take over these new positions."

[kevinkin]

Thanks for the post. There are so many things I could say about those tactics I think I will just be quiet. 

[Probus]

2 hours ago, billbindc said:

The Prigozhin story just keeps getting better: 

https://www.washingtonpost.com/national-security/2023/05/14/prigozhin-wagner-ukraine-leaked-documents/

Oh man!