How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?

[Taranis]

2 hours ago, Maciej Zwolinski said:

Are you sure? I thought it is the other way round -I read the Offensive Guards are more of infantry type organisations, so more likely to be used in the breakthrough rather than exploitation.

I think this because all the brigades are equipped with wheeled armored vehicles (Maxxpro, BTR-3, Varta, Kozak-2 etc). They seem to favor maneuverability and seem to me (from what I know) rather light in tanks (a simple company) and in artillery (a battalion, often towed (D-30, 120mm mortar etc) to have a real frontal assault role on fortified positions I imagine them more like units of exploitation and clearing (cities, isolated fortified positions, 2nd line of fortifications etc) à la Izium. Moreover they are National Guards units, so probably still light infantry type.

@Haiduk will surely know better than me  

Edited May 12, 2023 by Taranis

[DesertFox]

Everyone has a choice...

 

 

[Chibot Mk IX]

9 hours ago, dan/california said:

Well here is one guys take. And he is a former Italian army officer with deep Ukrainian connections.

That's just not possible.  or he just provide some exaggerate claims here to attract attention.

During cold war a reinforced Soviets Mot Rifle Bn may deployed in an attack formation deal with 3km front, that would cause the Bn form in a multiple echelon formation that is 10-15km long. Now just image 160k + troops deploy in this kind of formation.

The Soviet Division may initially concentrate the whole division's firepower in this 3-4km front to achieve initial breakthrough, then funnel the following battalions through this breakthrough point. But later they will have to expend the gap, because you will need as many roads as possible to support a large formation's safely maneuver and logistics. 

[Bearstronaut]

2 hours ago, Maciej Zwolinski said:

This is a popular opinion coming from the active US or UK military personnel, but people who are more familiar with the post-Soviet system (or other systems) are sceptical of it.

Actually, if a necessary function in the unit is taken care of, it does not matter if the person doing it is called an officer, NCO, warrant officer or however you name him. It is just that in the US/UK system the NCO is someone who his appointed for his post for a long time and may generate lots of experience, while a junior officer is someone who does this function briefly and then in a relatively short time goes on to more senior things. But this is just a quirk of the military career path adopted in some (maybe most) Western militaries - equally well one could have the same job fulfilled by professional junior officers of long standing.

A line from the US Army's Creed of the Non-Commissioned Officer is "Officers of my unit will have maximum time to accomplish their duties: they will not have to accomplish mine." Take of that what you will.

[DesertFox]

 

 

[akd]

Another 3rd Assault Brigade clip:

 

[Beleg85]

Regarding recent attacks- probably entire attack was conducted by one battalion of 3rd Brigade. Note how Ukrainians consequently hammer nails between Wagner and regulars; distrust between both forces stopped being purely political issue and clearly brings negative effects for katspas on the battlefield.

 

Edited May 12, 2023 by Beleg85

[Battlefront.com]

4 hours ago, Bulletpoint said:

I wonder if it's combat footage or from training. We don't see any Russian positions or even hear the crack of incoming fire. Also the guys seem a bit too relaxed?

I thought of that, and it is possible, especially since the vegetation is not slaughtered already.  But if it is training video, it's very recent.

Before posting I tried to confirm the identify of the unit.  There's only one patch visible, which is the driver's right arm.  I did not recognize it.

Steve

[Battlefront.com]

4 hours ago, Maciej Zwolinski said:

Also, while their armour is old, it is thicker than SPGs. They must be more resistant to counterbattery.

Actually, in the era of counterbattery fire which is everywhere  and arrives accurately in minutes having MBT level protection on your indirect fire assets would be very useful. This may be an interesting lesson from this conflict for the future.

I have not seen tanks do very well against artillery throughout this war.  If the enemy drops a 152/155 round within about 10m (or so) things don't work out so well for the tank.  At least for Soviet type tanks.  Which means effectively they aren't any better than SPGs.

Steve

[Offshoot]

An article about the expected Ukrainian offensive based mainly on the thoughts of Roman Kostenko, a special forces colonel and chair of the Kyiv parliament’s intelligence and security committee - https://www.theguardian.com/world/2023/may/12/ukraine-prepares-to-take-back-territory-from-russia-step-by-step-roman-kostenko

Nothing surprising here, but it does stand in contrast to a lot of expectations.

-"Ukraine’s long-anticipated push should be understood as a rolling “spring-summer campaign” against an entrenched and powerful adversary" that will proceed in stages
-First stage: strikes against logistical targets (started)
-Second stage:  strikes against command and control centres (likely started)
-No major frontal offensive until these stages weaken Russia's capabilities
-On locations: Dnipro is a grey zone where it is difficult to hold positions; the distances and fortifications involved in Zaporizhzhia are formidable and the region is heavily mined; favours attacking Bryansk

[Centurian52]

12 hours ago, Battlefront.com said:

It's worse than that.  They have lost extraordinary percentage of their junior and mid level officers.  This is one reason why they have organized mobiks and prisoners as whole units.  According to what we've learned directly from them, they gather up platoon sized groups, they elect their own platoon leader based on whatever criteria the unit comes up with.  Obviously if the guy has some past military or law enforcement experience, they probably favor that, but otherwise its whomever.  As the old saying goes, there's always someone in charge.

The company level doesn't seem to be much better, but it is probable that the majority of that level are unqualified for the job even by prewar Russian standards.  It's probable a fair percentage of the battalion commanders are also likely technically unqualified.  The list of hundreds of dead junior and mid level officers clearly backs this up.

So, these mobik units are going to the front with no NCOs or officers.  But really, if they aren't trained and they're told if they retreat they die, they aren't really needed are they?

That said, some of the mobiks have been used as individual replacements for established units.  The leadership those units have is probably better, but I think still pretty thin due to 1.25 years of near suicidal employment.  In WW2 the US Army in NW Europe had something like a 300% turnover of 1st and 2nd LTs.  Anybody think that Russian units are doing better?  I for sure don't.

Steve

The postwar Russian army is going to be a ****show. I don't see them rebuilding in a hurry. Even if they can build enough tanks to replace the equipment losses in this war, rebuilding something resembling effective standards of leadership and training will be nearly impossible. They just won't have enough skilled officers to rebuild the necessary institutions around.

[Battlefront.com]

35 minutes ago, Beleg85 said:

Regarding recent attacks- probably entire attack was conducted by one battalion of 3rd Brigade. Note how Ukrainians consequently hammer nails between Wagner and regulars; distrust between both forces stopped being purely political issue and clearly brings negative effects for katspas on the battlefield.

 

I think he's trolling Wagner.  The prevailing OSINT evidence is that the extremely poor quality Russian units left screening the flanks after VDV pulled out broke easily with Wagner's core units rushing to plug the gaps.  The best psyops the Ukrainians can do is say it was exactly the opposite.  Pokes a stick in Wagner's eye (good!), makes Wagernites on the ground furious (good!), and does nothing to endear Pirg's boys to regular Army (good!).

That said, I am sure that Wagnerites are folding too.  They're no way they are setup to be counter attacked like this.  They've had way too much to deal with to suddenly be able to go on the defensive against a well resourced counter attack.

Steve

[Centurian52]

11 hours ago, dan/california said:

Well here is one guys take. And he is a former Italian army officer with deep Ukrainian connections.

That's 32,000 troops per kilometer. Even in WW1 no one would have force to space ratios that high.

[Battlefront.com]

2 hours ago, LongLeftFlank said:

Cripes, do you absolutely HAVE to be a supercilious ***, at all times?

This is an incredibly interesting point one of our relatively new and well-read Polish community members has raised here, inviting discussion and disagreement. But nope, as always, Jon is going to quash it right out of the gate. Because all further discussion must take a back seat to his know-it-all-seen-it-all sarcasm.  There are other ways to debate, you know, without being a putz.

...Also, how's your Polish mate? Nowhere near as good as 'Mac's' English.

[yes, I'm still lurking here every couple days, just fed up with all the downtalking here from the cool kids. And feel free to suspend me Steve, I don't give a rats]

Ya know... I was happy to see your avatar when I started scrolling down the page.  Then I saw what you wrote and that disappeared quite quickly.  Honestly, is that really how you want to play this?  By being just as much of a dink hole as the person you're going after?

And yes, I did find JonS' post condescending and unnecessarily snarky.  And yes, that's not the first time in the last 20 years I've rolled my eyes at a pointlessly aggressive post.  He's certainly aimed quite a few of those at me over the years.  But let the person being targeted with it decide how to handle it and don't try to be a white knight.

Though I do thank you for using the word "putz".  Haven't seen that in a while and it is one of my favorite underused descriptive terms.

Steve

[paxromana]

6 minutes ago, Centurian52 said:

The postwar Russian army is going to be a ****show. I don't see them rebuilding in a hurry. Even if they can build enough tanks to replace the equipment losses in this war, rebuilding something resembling effective standards of leadership and training will be nearly impossible. They just won't have enough skilled officers to rebuild the necessary institutions around.

That's what did the East Romans in for the next couple of centuries after the disaster at Adrianople. Not enough experienced soldiers left to be a cadre.

[DesertFox]

I gather this is good news. AFAIK training takes about 10-12weeks. Lets see where we stand then.

 

 

[Audgisil]

Every now and again someone here posts a very informative summary of events to date. This one might not be that informative, but I found it highly amusing, nevertheless.

[Battlefront.com]

1 hour ago, Bearstronaut said:

A line from the US Army's Creed of the Non-Commissioned Officer is "Officers of my unit will have maximum time to accomplish their duties: they will not have to accomplish mine." Take of that what you will.

Absolutely.  I've conversed with many officers and NCOs over the years in addition to studying this topic academically.  Add to this extensive experience and understanding of private sector work environments which, largely, are organized along similar principles.  When the roles of officers and NCOs are properly defined, staffed, AND adhered to... there's nothing that can hold a candle to it.  It works so well on so many levels.  Best of all, it is sustainable in combat far better than the Soviet model.  Which is clearly what we're seeing in this war.

As for unit cohesion, that's a slightly different thing.  Good leadership can make a big difference, but by and large the US system of individual replacements was found to be the wrong approach in WW2 due to the frequency and scale of replacements.  The German and Soviet system of withdrawing the unit and rebuilding it was superior in that regard, though on the Soviet side they tended to keep the unit in the line until it was beyond easy repair while the Germans (ideally) pulled the units out while there was still something to rebuild.  By the end of the war the US system looked more like the German, the German system looked more like the Soviet.

It's been 20ish years since I read a 1" thick US Army commissioned analysis of the comparative replacement systems' pros/cons, but it was an excellent and eye opening read that I will never forget.

Steve

[Battlefront.com]

1 minute ago, Audgisil said:

Every now and again someone here posts a very informative summary of events to date. This one might not be that informative, but I found it highly amusing, nevertheless.

Heh!  Well, that one made my download folder of "Funnies".  Thanks!

Steve

[Splinty]

2 hours ago, Bearstronaut said:

A line from the US Army's Creed of the Non-Commissioned Officer is "Officers of my unit will have maximum time to accomplish their duties: they will not have to accomplish mine." Take of that what you will.

I think the 1st line of the creed "No one is more professional that I, a Non Commissioned Officer, a leader of Soldiers." plays a role in that too. There's a big difference in just being promoted to sergeant because someone has served long enough, and being a professional NCO.

[Battlefront.com]

6 minutes ago, DesertFox said:

I gather this is good news. AFAIK training takes about 10-12weeks. Lets see where we stand then.

 

 

Good news!  It's important that Ukraine continue to build a force for Fall 2023 and 2024, not just Summer 2023.  Fortunately for Ukraine, Russia is not even building a fore for Summer 2023!

In my list of newly formed Ukrainian brigades there's at least 4 that won't be ready until mid Summer at the earliest.  They'll probably withdraw a couple mid Summer and rebuild them if needed or do it after the campaign season is over.  Unlike the Russians, they are correctly applying the WW2 German model for unit expansion.  In this case taking a battalion from a combat experienced brigade and using its personnel to create a new brigade.  Given enough time this works very well.

I'm curious about how Ukraine is building up new units.  I presume it is similar to the Germans where they would have the cadre help train the new guys but would largely remain in their original platoons.  The platoons would be split up so that the new companies had a "proven quantity" to work with while the other platoons got up to speed.

Steve

[Battlefront.com]

11 minutes ago, Splinty said:

I think the 1st line of the creed "No one is more professional that I, a Non Commissioned Officer, a leader of Soldiers." plays a role in that too. There's a big difference in just being promoted to sergeant because someone has served long enough, and being a professional NCO.

You mean a bunch of guys thrown in a room and asked to come out with a NCO isn't a better way to do this?  Wow... someone should tell the Russians, because clearly they don't know!

I have never met an officer in the US military who has spoken ill of the NCO system that technically serves under them.  Complaints about individuals?  Sure, that's Humanity for you.  But the system itself?  It's viewed as the core of what makes the US military work so well.  Though the officers telling me this then make some sort of snarky comment about saying that just to keep the NCOs happy

Likewise, as much as NCOs grumble about officers generally (many a claim of "I'd rather take a .50cal to the head than be an officer" sorts of sentiment!), they do understand that there's purpose in them.  Provide they do as they say!

Another fun thing I learned about the US military, at least, is how officers will use their NCOs as foul mouthed, no nonsense pitbulls against other officers.  I don't know how common a practice it is, but I knew a COL that would sometimes send his 1SGT around to pass along his displeasure when necessary.  The 1SGT smiled an awful lot when he recounted dressing down a CPT or MAJ like a wayward PFC.  Because he was acting under instructions and confidence of The Old Man, the little bits of metal on the officers' shoulders were no protection.  (I get the sense this was not a common practice for this COL, but one reserved for special occasions).

Steve

[zinz]

Quote

️ WAR IN #UKRAINE - MAY 12

Most artillery strikes in at least half a year (our data goes back to Nov 1)

STRIKES:
+33 strikes on areas of enemy concentration
+11 on command centers
+2 on warehouses etc.
+1 on anti-air related targets
+11 on other targets

In partnership with https://twitter.com/m0nstas

https://lookerstudio.google.com/s/s5TApSoZANk

https://masto.ai/@ragnarbjartur/110354797374809762

Things are certainly heating up. 

The decline of Ukrainian aviation activity is also very visible 

[dan/california]

Another video of Russians flat out running away. The Ukrainians seem on track to gain back most of what Russia gained all winter around Bakmuht in a week or two. And we haven't seen a single Leopard, Bradley, Cheiftan, ect in action I am aware of yet. The Russians may just be worn out.

[Der Zeitgeist]

4 hours ago, Artkin said:

This guy must be smoking it. 

Put a single brigade of troops on a 5km wide map. Your eyes will water with how many items are on the map. Now add the support elements. The game will never run. 

Its just nonsense. Doesnt even deserve a written out post. 

 

12 hours ago, dan/california said:

Well here is one guys take. And he is a former Italian army officer with deep Ukrainian connections.

 

2 hours ago, Chibot Mk IX said:

That's just not possible.  or he just provide some exaggerate claims here to attract attention.

During cold war a reinforced Soviets Mot Rifle Bn may deployed in an attack formation deal with 3km front, that would cause the Bn form in a multiple echelon formation that is 10-15km long. Now just image 160k + troops deploy in this kind of formation.

The Soviet Division may initially concentrate the whole division's firepower in this 3-4km front to achieve initial breakthrough, then funnel the following battalions through this breakthrough point. But later they will have to expend the gap, because you will need as many roads as possible to support a large formation's safely maneuver and logistics. 

 

39 minutes ago, Centurian52 said:

That's 32,000 troops per kilometer. Even in WW1 no one would have force to space ratios that high.

First rule for Thomas C. Theiner:

If you're following him on Twitter, click "unfollow".