How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?

[chrisl]

6 minutes ago, kevinkin said:

You agree that that positions were built out of range of UA capabilities and the west screwed up. Those positions should have been destroyed or overrun months ago. They are easily found and fixed. I thought the UA had an ISR advantage? If they do, destruction is simple. unless the Bomb gets in the way ... oh that freaking problem rises again. 

Why would you spend long range precision weapons on single guys in holes?  Or on empty holes that were built as backup positions?  It's better to spend your long range PGMs on things like concentrated forces and ammo dumps than to be shooting HIMARS at single mobiks.  

How would you overrun them if they're behind lines?

Ukraine has lots of short/intermediate drone capability to reach out and touch someone once they get to those lines, and at much lower cost.  

(and I see a post from Steve popped up while I'm typing this and he probably beat me to the response).

 

[Battlefront.com]

19 minutes ago, kevinkin said:

You agree that that positions were built out of range of UA capabilities and the west screwed up. Those positions should have been destroyed or overrun months ago. They are easily found and fixed. I thought the UA had an ISR advantage? If they do, destruction is simple. unless the Bomb gets in the way ... oh that freaking problem rises again. 

No, I am saying that even with increased Western aid, including ATACMS, it wouldn't have made much difference in terms of trenches.  You seem to wildly underestimate how difficult it is to disrupt this sort of activity.  It's too dispersed to effectively strike.  Which means I disagree with your characterization and definitely do not see any grounds for concluding that the West, through poor decision making, is in any way responsible for the trenches existing.

As for things like Russian command posts, ammo dumps, and support services being able to locate far away from the front without fear of attack, now that I think is a significant missed opportunity.  However, we don't know the full story. 

In a perfect world Ukraine would cry about not having long range weapons, Russia moves its stuff far away from the front, logistics problems ensue, sloppy OPSEC makes clear where these things are, then when the counter offensive starts... surprise surprise, guess who can strike out to 300km?  I would so love that to happen as it would have provided Ukraine with short term benefits of horrible stress on Russian LOCs then, too late to do anything about it, suffer disruption.

Steve

[kevinkin]

8 minutes ago, chrisl said:

Why would you spend long range precision weapons on single guys in holes?

Maneuver warfare would not strike at single guys, but the means to dig the trenches with tractors that need fuel. We are at this point  in military history because Russian was allowed to dig in. My point is if the west had balls, this conversation would be mute point. 

Edited May 8, 2023 by kevinkin

[dan/california]

32 minutes ago, Battlefront.com said:

now they realize everybody expects Ukraine to host the next Winter Olympics in Sochi.

Well it would be the coolest thing ever, and all of a sudden Georgia would be fixable. But a wee bit ambitious I will grant you.

[Battlefront.com]

1 minute ago, kevinkin said:

Maneuver warfare would not strike at single guys, but the means to dig the trenches with tractors that need fuel. We are at this put in military history because Russian was allowed to dig in. My point is if the west had balls, this conversation would be mute point. 

Yeah, except if you could stop a mobik with an excavator from digging due to a lack of fuel, the entire Russian Army would be out of fuel as well.  And that's not a very likely scenario even if every single ATACMS from every corner of every base on planet Earth were provided to Ukraine already.

Again, your expectations for what could be accomplished are not realistic, therefore your ire is as misplaced as it is unfair.  At least as it pertains to trenches.

Steve

[kevinkin]

2 minutes ago, Battlefront.com said:

long range weapons

Better to overrun the enemy in close combat than to allow them to dig in. Reliance on long range weapons is only prolonging the Ukrainian agony. God forbid, how many are they suppose to lose?  At what point does the west just see Ukraine as road kill? Get this war over with .. period. Ukraine will never survive unless nuclear black mail is taken off the table. 

 

[dan/california]

https://www.reddit.com/r/CombatFootage/comments/13b7wje/ukrainian_air_defense_takes_out_a_drone_seconds/

Crazy night time footage of air defense at work.

 

[Kinophile]

6 minutes ago, kevinkin said:

Better to overrun the enemy in close combat than to allow them to dig in. Reliance on long range weapons is only prolonging the Ukrainian agony. God forbid, how many are they suppose to lose?  At what point does the west just see Ukraine as road kill? Get this war over with .. period. Ukraine will never survive unless nuclear black mail is taken off the table. 

 

I'm curious, why are you repeatedly throwing in the nuclear aspect? How does MAD tie into a discussion on trench digging? 

[chrisl]

2 minutes ago, kevinkin said:

Better to overrun the enemy in close combat than to allow them to dig in. Reliance on long range weapons is only prolonging the Ukrainian agony. God forbid, how many are they suppose to lose?  At what point does the west just see Ukraine as road kill? Get this war over with .. period. Ukraine will never survive unless nuclear black mail is taken off the table. 

 

You're not even making sense.  How do you overrun them in close combat when they're digging far enough behind lines that they're effectively out of artillery and drone range, let alone close combat range?  

Ukraine has so many drones that we're getting video of drones watching other drones that are watching other drones drop bombs or direct artillery.  How much value is there in hitting trenches that are far enough behind lines that they might never even see combat?

Ukraine will survive, even in the presence of nuclear blackmail, as long as the west continues on the support trajectory it's on.  The UA has more better equipment than they started with, and have been able to muster enough troops that they've been able to make Russia pay enormously for a few city blocks in Bakhmut while at the same time sending very large numbers of troops for training in NATO training centers.  

[kevinkin]

1 minute ago, chrisl said:

digging far enough

That's the point. Those positions should never have been allowed to be in place.  

[kevinkin]

3 minutes ago, Kinophile said:

How does MAD tie into a discussion on trench digging? 

NATO going all in to stop the war and save as many Ukrainian lives as possible. 

[Battlefront.com]

9 hours ago, billbindc said:

https://jamestown.org/program/collapse-of-the-russian-empires-main-historical-pillar/ 
 

Of interest.

That was worth the read.  Here's something else Jamestown related.  It's an interview with Janusz Bugajski, the author of this book on the impending collapse of the Russian Federation as a unified state:

https://jamestown.org/product/failed-state-a-guide-to-russias-rupture-published/

The interview highlights many of the issues we've talked about since the early days of the war and, I am proud to say, reflects many of the conclusions expressed here:

https://www.kyivpost.com/post/16742

Steve

[Battlefront.com]

5 minutes ago, kevinkin said:

That's the point. Those positions should never have been allowed to be in place.  

Sure, and Russians should be back in Russia.  Fine concept, not so easily done in reality.

I'd advise backing off of this for at least the rest of the night.  You've said your piece, nobody agrees with you, and so I don't see the point in it continuing it.

Steve

[Battlefront.com]

Oh, and I forgot to mention that in the ISW report from yesterday it cited the UK MoD estimating that the Russian work force pool is short about 2,000,000 workers due to a couple of years' worth of problems: 

Quote

Based on the Russian Central Bank's survey, the UK MoD assessed that Russia is facing the worst labor shortages in decades.[47] The bank surveyed 14,000 employers and found that the number of available employees is at the lowest level since 1998. The UK MoD assessed that the Covid-19 pandemic, high emigration rates, and the war in Ukraine had decreased the Russian population by two million more people than expected.

Steve

[Kinophile]

59 minutes ago, Battlefront.com said:

ISW's May 7th report is one people should look at. The entire top section discusses the recent infighting between the various combat factions fighting for Russia.  The overall gist of their assessment is Gerasimov decided to deprioritize Bakhmut so as to prepare for the coming Ukrainian counter offensive.  This meant depriving Prig of the large volume of resources (artillery and flanking VDV forces) it has received in recent months.  Prig decided to "blackmail" Gerasimov into reversing that decision and wasn't entirely successful.  Kadyrov, who needed a boost in his standing, joined Prig in the blackmail by threatening to pull already committed Chechen forces out of their positions elsewhere along the front (up north in particular, IIRC), leaving Gerasimov holes to plug. 

There's a lot of subtlety to the theory, which is why I recommend reading the full thing, but it boils down to the MoD's chain of command's traditional problems with cohesion becoming much worse right as it's about to face the Ukrainian counter offensive.

https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-may-7-2023

There's some other good stuff in this report, including Russian MoD confirming that Ukraine holds islands in the Dnepr and claiming the total defeat of a massive drone strike on Crimea.  No proof provided, apparently.

Steve

I noticed this too and it made me think a little. Around fall last year I was musing that if UKR managed to destory or incapacitate Wagner that it could (1) create a real hole in offensive capabilities for the entire theater and (2) stress the factionalisation within the RUS operational command itself. I envisaged this process as driven by and amplified by the efforts of the ZSU.

As with many things Ivan, their own incompetence and internal division has created almost that situation but without a direct intent by the ZSU. This is great, because it highlights that nothing has fundamentally changed with the deeper nature of the Russian war effort - tribal groupings barely held together by a **** stain smearing of MoD "C&C" that only works when the Head Turd himself validates the MoDs orders.

Further to this, perhaps we should be looking at the potential ZSU offensive targets along different lines - not geographic or kill sack potential, but at the on-the-ground division lines between the various factions. Hit them where they rub elbows, where cooperation is weakest and where internal fighting has already occurred.

Find & exploit factional fracture lines within the theater that lead deeper then the initial tactical situation and into the operational level. The most overt is between Wagner v MoD, of course, while Kadyrov is spread throughout the front. But even within the MoD "tribe" there are distinct, foundational crack lines (VDV vs Mobiks, Russian Army v. Separatists, etc).

Wherever the ZSU hammers fall, I wonder if they'll hit along those mil-political juncture points, possibly multiple ones at simultaneous timings. Really get the rats in the bag fighting each other, amplify the mistrust and exploit, exploit, exploit.

 

Edited May 8, 2023 by Kinophile

[Kinophile]

8 minutes ago, kevinkin said:

NATO going all in to stop the war and save as many Ukrainian lives as possible. 

Okay. Well. This just finishes it for me. Enjoy your cake.

[kevinkin]

in your face .. 

[kevinkin]

15 minutes ago, Battlefront.com said:

nobody

I agree. 

[CAZmaj]

Rampant corruption is reported to have rendered Russia's ballistic missile early warning system virtually useless. Scams by contractors are said to have led to unsuitable foreign-made components being used on a wide scale.

The VChK-OGPU Telegram channel reports that a scandal is about to break over a component substitution scam that it says has crippled Russia's early warning radars. Such scams have been widespread in Russian military procurement, often with the collusion of corrupt officials.

 

[CAZmaj]

6 hours ago, chuckdyke said:

I realize that but the way he delivered that grenade reminded me of my mate Ted an A Class cricket player. He was in our social team lol.

A lot of practice makes an expert. Baseball and cricket balls are quite lighter than the average hand granade.

Edited May 8, 2023 by CAZmaj

[paxromana]

1 hour ago, CAZmaj said:

Baseball and cricket balls are quite lighter than the average hand granade.

One thing I found when practising Grenade Throwing in the Army Reserve was that it was *amazing* how far you could throw the darn things even from inside a nice walled and bunkered pit ... you didn't want the darm things to land anywhere near you ... 

[chuckdyke]

2 hours ago, CAZmaj said:

cricket balls

I respectfully disagree, I don't know anything about baseball. But a cricket ball is solid inside and if it hits you can do some serious damage. Here it show the energy it can break a bat. M26 hand grenade is almost three times the weight.

 

Edited May 8, 2023 by chuckdyke

[JonS]

Are you really trying to argue that a cricket ball is heavier than a grenade ... because ... some bats that should have been retired games ago were held onto for too long and then predictably broke when the batsman tried to hit a fast bowl ?

Ooookay then.

That's an approach, I guess.

Edited May 8, 2023 by JonS

[Bulletpoint]

Now that suddenly Wagner is staying in Bakhmut after all is that likely to be because Prig was succesful in getting the ammo he wanted, or because Putin put in a blocking unit and said he couldn't leave?

[chuckdyke]

7 minutes ago, JonS said:

Are you really trying to argue that a cricket ball is heavier than a grenade ... because ... some bats that should have been retired games ago were held onto for too long and then predictably broke when the batsman tried to hit a fast bowl ?

Ooookay then.

That's an approach, I guess.

I just looked it up and edited my post. M26 is almost three times the weight. A baseball weighs slightly less than a cricket ball.