How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?

[Sekai]

And wagner is no more, in Ukraine at least

 

Edited May 5, 2023 by Sekai

[TheVulture]

BBC are reporting as 'breaking news':

Leader of Russia's Wagner Group threatens to withdraw his troops from Ukrainian city of Bakhmut by Wednesday in row over ammunition supplies

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-65493008

I dint know if that is just the same as in yesterday's "pile of bodies" video (not watched it) or is a new escalation in internal politics in time for victory day

[Maciej Zwolinski]

9 hours ago, Beleg85 said:

This one is extremelly explicit. I don't remember him getting so emotional. He is begging for ammo for a long time, it curious if his rant + recent droning of Kremlin flag may be somehow temporarly connected?

Also, very short after the Kremlin droning there was another film by Prigozhyn, where he said that it is not time for talking nonsense about nuclear retaliation, but about people responsible for the air defence not working.

My personal theory is that Prigozhyn may be behind the drone attack, and making his move to improve his position in Kremlin elite in the wake of likely recriminations following Ukrainian successes. Note he has been saying for some time that the UKR offensive will be successful, which probably reflects his real asessment - he would look a coward by predicting success of the enemy, if it is not confirmed by the events. 

[Taranis]

 

 

[The_Capt]

2 hours ago, TheVulture said:

BBC are reporting as 'breaking news':

Leader of Russia's Wagner Group threatens to withdraw his troops from Ukrainian city of Bakhmut by Wednesday in row over ammunition supplies

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-65493008

I dint know if that is just the same as in yesterday's "pile of bodies" video (not watched it) or is a new escalation in internal politics in time for victory day

This guy has not been pushed out a window so clearly he has got the power to get away with this.  Historically guys like this take their toys and roll on the capital (happening in Sudan as we speak - and Russia is in that game as well).  That might just be what it takes for a Russian collapse of course we are then in a Russian civil war which is always fun.

[Bulletpoint]

Not sure if anybody already brought up this theory, but could the Kremlin drone attacks have been conducted by Putin himself, in order to test his own air defences?

If I were him, I'd look at videos from Ukraine and be paranoid about the risk of a drone suddenly crashing in through my own window at any moment.

Looking at the miserable performance of the Russian army so far, and the succesful Ukrainian attacks on Russian oil storage etc, I'd be wondering if all those AA guns I placed on tall buildings around my HQ would actually save me in case of drone attack.

Edited May 5, 2023 by Bulletpoint

[Bil Hardenberger]

Can’t say I’m surprised about this:

https://www.cnn.com/2023/05/05/politics/russia-jamming-himars-rockets-ukraine/index.html

Jamming GPS is a very effective tactic versus UAVs, interesting that the Russians are using it effectively versus HIMARS and Excalibur. Bet the Russians are losing a ton of jammers now. 

[billbindc]

43 minutes ago, The_Capt said:

This guy has not been pushed out a window so clearly he has got the power to get away with this.  Historically guys like this take their toys and roll on the capital (happening in Sudan as we speak - and Russia is in that game as well).  That might just be what it takes for a Russian collapse of course we are then in a Russian civil war which is always fun.

I'm pretty sure Prigozhin would be fully zinc'ed in a week if he tried it. I also highly doubt that Wagner..or what's left of it...is going anywhere Putin doesn't completely authorize. The dog doesn't get to determine where it gets walked. 

[Haiduk]

1 hour ago, Taranis said:

 

 

Air Forces Command reportedly really angry about this leak from Defense Express. That's why wasn't official report about types of targets shot down over Kyiv in night on 4th May. Air Forces now officially claimed there wasn't "Kinzhal" tracked in our airspace in this night and Defense Express info is fake. But all Kyiv heard in 2:40 this triple explosion in the sky and this of course wasn't Shakhed. 

Today one serviceman of some radar or SAM brigade wrote a post in twitter (already is deleted obviously on demand), where told if Defense Express issued this info, then he also can confirm that their unit tracked "Kinzhal" on US radar, which have 600 km range. Also he told Rissians considers "Kinzhal" as hyper-sonic missile, but in real this not quite right. This missile launches when it carrier achievs hyper-sonic speed, further the missile is gradually losing own speed and on final section of trajectory has a speed higher, that usual ballistic missile, but already not hypersonic, so it can be intercepted with some probability.

Looks like, AF command didn't want make publicity this info, that now we can successfully shot down "Kinzhals". I think, US side also should be surprised.

Edited May 5, 2023 by Haiduk

[Tux]

1 hour ago, The_Capt said:

This guy has not been pushed out a window so clearly he has got the power to get away with this.  Historically guys like this take their toys and roll on the capital (happening in Sudan as we speak - and Russia is in that game as well).  That might just be what it takes for a Russian collapse of course we are then in a Russian civil war which is always fun.

Do you think that’s the subtext to this message which may hit Shoigu, Gerasimov et al harder than the overt threat?  Is it less about where Wagner will be withdrawn from on the 10th (easily blamed on Prigozhin if Ukraine benefit) and more about where Wagner might arrive on the 12th?

I wonder how far away we are from that kind of thing.

 

[Edit:] Dammit, I should have said “are we there, yet?”…

Edited May 5, 2023 by Tux
Missed opportunity

[The_Capt]

4 hours ago, Bil Hardenberger said:

Can’t say I’m surprised about this:

https://www.cnn.com/2023/05/05/politics/russia-jamming-himars-rockets-ukraine/index.html

Jamming GPS is a very effective tactic versus UAVs, interesting that the Russians are using it effectively versus HIMARS and Excalibur. Bet the Russians are losing a ton of jammers now. 

The issue with GPS jammers is that - GOOD: they jam GPS and make precision strikes and UAS in an area much harder, BAD: they have limited range and put out an ungodly amount of energy, basically a giant flashing sign of EM.  The Bad means that they become targets for good old fashion dumb artillery (in range) and SOF (in depth) really quickly.  They also do nothing for NLOS systems or other forms of navigation/targeting unless they layer more EW on, which of course is more energy in atmo.  

[billbindc]

9 minutes ago, Tux said:

Do you think that’s the subtext to this message which may hit Shoigu, Gerasimov et al harder than the overt threat?  Is it less about where Wagner will be withdrawn from on the 10th (easily blamed on Prigozhin if Ukraine benefit) and more about where Wagner might arrive on the 12th?

I wonder how far away we are from that kind of thing.

It's clear Prigozhin doesn't control his own logistics and he depends for his survival on the favor of one VV Putin. As long as those facts pertain, Prigozhin is a pawn who thinks he's a bishop.

[Tux]

1 minute ago, billbindc said:

It's clear Prigozhin doesn't control his own logistics and he depends for his survival on the favor of one VV Putin. As long as those facts pertain, Prigozhin is a pawn who thinks he's a bishop.

Indeed, or if he’s a bit more self-aware he’s clearly spouting off to try and sound more ‘bishop-like’.  It’s a very public threat, though, so the demand for ammunition isn’t the whole message.  My guess is it’s just standard Russian posturing and arse-covering but I’m sure he/Wagner could theoretically make quite the unseemly nuisance of themselves with whatever ammunition stocks they do currently have, even if they don’t have enough to continue the grind in Bakhmut.

[billbindc]

11 minutes ago, Tux said:

Indeed, or if he’s a bit more self-aware he’s clearly spouting off to try and sound more ‘bishop-like’.  It’s a very public threat, though, so the demand for ammunition isn’t the whole message.  My guess is it’s just standard Russian posturing and arse-covering but I’m sure he/Wagner could theoretically make quite the unseemly nuisance of themselves with whatever ammunition stocks they do currently have, even if they don’t have enough to continue the grind in Bakhmut.

He can't attack the Russian Army leadership in any kinetic sense because he'd be out of food and ammo almost immediately. He can't get Wagner to Moscow in force without cooperation from the Ministry of Transport which is run by a strong Putin loyalist. He can yell, threaten to pull out and when/if Putin decides he is a nuisance he'll be summoned to a meeting in Moscow. If he doesn't go or doesn't follow the orders he gets when he arrives he is done. 

[The_Capt]

3 hours ago, billbindc said:

He can't attack the Russian Army leadership in any kinetic sense because he'd be out of food and ammo almost immediately. He can't get Wagner to Moscow in force without cooperation from the Ministry of Transport which is run by a strong Putin loyalist. He can yell, threaten to pull out and when/if Putin decides he is a nuisance he'll be summoned to a meeting in Moscow. If he doesn't go or doesn't follow the orders he gets when he arrives he is done. 

Unless he convinces some Army leadership it might be a good idea to throw in with him.  The thing with these crappy autocratic klepto-crime syndicate-type governments is that once the boss looks weak the hyenas start coming out of the trees.

Now not saying "this is it", but this is what "it" would start to look like.  My faith in one potato head dictator able to hold this all together is fading rapidly.  In fact that whole Drone-Kremlin thing could just as easily be an inside job to shake the fortress.  Now if that was a UA op to widen a bunch of internal cracks; we are talking a ballgame.

We have commented that this looks like positioning for endgame, but I am starting to wonder, which game?  At some point the dogs in the reservoir start to turn on each other...the only question is when does the water get high enough? 

[Billy Ringo]

Or, what if Prigozhin is nothing more than a mouthpiece for Putin?  Placing blame on the Russian military elite for defeat and lack of success.   Since the start of the "special operation" Putin has dropped little negative comments about his military, he's fired and reshuffled generals on what seems like a weekly basis.

Putin may simply be slowly building his off-ramp to get out of this mess by shifting blame on the Russian generals--hoping he can stay in power.  (And the fact that Girkin is still alive makes me believe he's another Putin and/or KSB mouthpiece.)

[billbindc]

4 minutes ago, The_Capt said:

Unless he convinces some Army leadership it might be a good idea to throw in with him.  The thing with these crappy autocratic klepto-crime syndicate-type governments is that once the boss looks weak the hyenas start coming out of the trees.

Now not saying "this is it", but this is what "it" would start to look like.  My faith in one potato head dictator able to hold this all together is fading rapidly.  In fact that whole Drone-Kremlin thing could just as easily be an inside job to shake the fortress.  Now if that was a UA op to widen a bunch of internal cracks; we are talking a ballgame.

We have commented that this looks like positioning for endgame, but I am starting to wonder, which game?  At some point the dogs in the reservoir start to turn on each other...the only question is when does the water get high enough? 

As I have been won’t to say, the regime will look solid until suddenly it looks like it’s falling apart. That could be happening. But I don’t see it being Wagner or Prigozhin. He already tried once to take over the MoD and got slapped down easily. He doesn’t have natural allies in the security service (they are all rivals) or in the big money oligarchs.                                              (who resent his use of the Putin connection to horn in on big money contracts and see him as a crude upstart). I interpret his current wailing not as a sign of his strength but of his weakness. If he really had the juice, he’d have the ammunition. 

Watch for shifts in the public statements of the State Security council, personnel changes there or in the bigger ministries. Look for a situation in which Putin starts to be harder to find in public settings.You are right to suggest there are multiple games being played here. Prigozhin isn’t playing to win it…he’s playing it survive it.

 

[kevinkin]

If Prigozhin's complaints amount low ammo are true, which is probably the case, could the UA take advantage now more dramatically? Perhaps deliver a knock out blow to a good part of his forces. if not, certainly factor that into future operations farther away. 

[A Canadian Cat]

13 hours ago, danfrodo said:

As if Prigozhin himself has no responsibility for this??????  He's the one shoving them into the meat grinder.  He's the one grabbing inmates and throwing them into the fight w no training. 

That was my thought too. Hell man you are the one attacking and sending these guys to their death. If you don't have enough ammo for offensive operations they why the **** are you conducting them? I hope people watching this put 2 and 2 together and blame him for their deaths. Yeah I know - not likely...

Edited May 5, 2023 by IanL
grammar

[Haiduk]

Next missile attack. Kramatorsk already got four Kh-22. Kh-101/555 are expected due to Tu-95 over Caspian sea allegedly launched missiles about hour ago (If its weren't imitations and EW tricks). Air raid alarm in Kyiv now.

Edited May 5, 2023 by Haiduk

[A Canadian Cat]

1 hour ago, The_Capt said:

The issue with GPS jammers is that - GOOD: they jam GPS and make precision strikes and UAS in an area much harder, BAD: they have limited range and put out an ungodly amount of energy, basically a giant flashing sign of EM.  The Bad means that they become targets for good old fashion dumb artillery (in range) and SOF (in depth) really quickly.  They also do nothing for NLOS systems or other forms of navigation/targeting unless they layer more EW on, which of course is more energy in atmo.  

I imagine they also are a lot like someone jumping up and down waving their arms saying "there is something valuable here worth protecting".

[Harmon Rabb]

1 hour ago, Billy Ringo said:

Or, what if Prigozhin is nothing more than a mouthpiece for Putin?  Placing blame on the Russian military elite for defeat and lack of success.   Since the start of the "special operation" Putin has dropped little negative comments about his military, he's fired and reshuffled generals on what seems like a weekly basis.

Putin may simply be slowly building his off-ramp to get out of this mess by shifting blame on the Russian generals--hoping he can stay in power.  (And the fact that Girkin is still alive makes me believe he's another Putin and/or KSB mouthpiece.)

I'm not sure how much of Prigozhin's comments are theatre and how much they are real.

I do think is that without Putin's blessing Wagner could not exist the way it exists now. From what I understand under Russian law PMCs are illegal. When Putin really thinks Wagner has served its purpose, he can just have someone close the company down simply because it does not comply with Russian law.

Putin could also just cut Wagner off as they are heavily dependent on the Russian government for support, if he feels they are becoming more trouble than they are worth. Here is a video from Perun where he covers the Wagner Group, Skip to 26:05 when he starts talking about just how deeply Wagner and the Russian government are connected.

 

Edited May 5, 2023 by Harmon Rabb

[Battlefront.com]

3 hours ago, billbindc said:

I'm pretty sure Prigozhin would be fully zinc'ed in a week if he tried it. I also highly doubt that Wagner..or what's left of it...is going anywhere Putin doesn't completely authorize. The dog doesn't get to determine where it gets walked. 

You have obviously never been with a hound dog when he catches wind of a moose.  Just saying!

Jumping in on the conversation, the chances of Prig conducting a coup is probably lower now than at any point in the last year.  I will remind everybody reading this thread now that back when we last speculated about Prig the consensus here, I think it is fair to say, ruled him out as a solo player.  He simply never has, and does not now have, the resources to do much of anything to the Putin regime on his own.

The real threat Wagner poses to the regime is if we get into a "strange bedfellows" scenario where Prig makes Wagner available for someone else's coup plans.  Wagner could prove valuable because they are, in every way that matters, ruthless mercenaries with combat experience.  If the MoD or the security services made Prig a good enough offer, it's not impossible to believe he might take them up on it.  One of the most notable characteristics of an autocratic system is that everybody is a back stabbing SOB at heart, so alliances are made more for survival and/or profit than they are ideological or political reasons.

Steve

[masc]

Zelenskyy received a rather unique gift during his visit with the Czech president.

[sross112]

4 hours ago, Taranis said:

 

 

Perun's last video was on hypersonic missiles. In it he talks about their development, cost, and use. The US had a program, but they ended it awhile back. Could it be that they are super expensive and they knew from testing that they were vulnerable to interception by the Patriot and maybe other systems? It would make sense that you would stop dumping a bunch of money into a system that wasn't going to give you a lot of benefit over what you already have if you know they are more vulnerable to interception than most people think. It also makes sense that the US and UA leadership would want that knowledge contained as China and Russia are dumping big resources into their projects that they think aren't interceptable. That would explain the hush hush attitude when normally it would be broadcasted as pretty big news. 

This sort of thing can also explain some of the hesitation to give the UA some systems. Russia, and China by osmosis, is learning a lot about HIMARS, Starstreak, Javelin, and now Patriot capabilities that the US and allies probably didn't want them to know.  Might be that ATACMS has some abilities that they don't want to show off or technology that they don't want to risk falling into potential enemy hands? It only takes one dud.