How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?

[BlackMoria]

20 hours ago, Bannon said:

I am looking forward to the photos and videos of a Ukrainian farmer pulling a T-14 with his tractor!

Followed by, a short time later, the same T-14 showing up on a flatbed trailer in some US gas station parking lot...

[Battlefront.com]

7 hours ago, chuckdyke said:

Follow this sound advice when you play CM.

 

Judging from so many videos we've seen, it doesn't look like the Russians have seen this video because they seem to like staying in the same place.  And I think they take the "don't be Rambo" bit too seriously, because they don't seem to like shooting back at all.

Steve

[Battlefront.com]

4 hours ago, Maciej Zwolinski said:

It did not work. I think the number of people honestly thinking of themselves as communists or socialists right now may be higher in post communist satellite countries now, than it was at any time between 1950 and 1989. Of course, they are mostly kids with their hair dyed blue and Pokemon avatars getting their Marxism lessons from Tik Tokers in the US hardly older than their audience. During the Warsaw Pact time it was sufficient to have a look around you to see that communism sucks ***, and now that kind of first hand experience is sorely missing.

Youth + Ignorance + "Grass is always greener somewhere else" = attraction to things that shouldn't be attracted to.  Add in people with money and vested interests and it becomes even more problematic for society.

In the US we have some of this from the left, for sure, but the much bigger push is coming from the right where there is attraction to discredited Fascist concepts rather than Socialist.  This is not surprising as the US population, on the whole, has generally skewed right since the modern concept of right/left developed in the 19th Century.  So when there's stress in society, both extremes get more popular but the right seems to get more accomplished.  Mostly because of the inherent nature of right and left... right is all about getting things done, left is all about arguing about now to get things done and then finding out that the right has already done it

Steve

[Battlefront.com]

50 minutes ago, kevinkin said:

Fast cars and politics are like fast cars and blondes. All well and good as long as you keep your eyes on the road and don't draw too much attention or break any laws on the way to Vegas:

 https://www.realclearinvestigations.com/articles/2023/04/26/war_threatens_ukraine_auto_empire_of_biden_megadonor_urging_greater_us_role_895319.html

I was recently reminded that Real Clear Politics (of which I presume this is an arm of) has transitioned into overt partisan politics funded by obscure sources of big money.  There was a detailed 2020 article about the transition from respected right leaning publication to overt partisan rag here:

https://www.nytimes.com/2020/11/17/us/politics/real-clear-politics.html

As with many things in politics, there could be some truth to what this investigation has supposedly uncovered, but I absolutely have no faith in it being an honest assessment of whatever facts they might have.

Steve

[Astrophel]

40 minutes ago, Battlefront.com said:

 So when there's stress in society, both extremes get more popular but the right seems to get more accomplished.  Mostly because of the inherent nature of right and left... right is all about getting things done, left is all about arguing about now to get things done and then finding out that the right has already done it

Steve

Right tends to have more power and money.  It appears they are action oriented but most of the big social changes in the last fifty years have been achieved by leftish governments working in teams and building consensus.

The right wing Daily Mail (English language countries) - is building a head of steam with Putin-sympathetic articles, and joining other rightist channels flogging the Hunter Biden horse back onto the race course.  I wonder what interests are behind this fairly obvious propaganda gambit.  Somebodies want to freeze the conflict is my guess.

Edited April 26, 2023 by Astrophel
spelling

[sburke]

2 hours ago, Astrophel said:

Right tends to have more power and money.  It appears they are action oriented but most of the big social changes in the last fifty years have been achieved by leftish governments working in teams and building consensus.

The right wing Daily Mail (English language countries) - is building a head of steam with Putin-sympathetic articles, and joining other rightist channels flogging the Hunter Biden horse back onto the race course.  I wonder what interests are behind this fairly obvious propaganda gambit.  Somebodies want to freeze the conflict is my guess.

the right also tends to have relationships to local police forces as well.  very rare in the case of the left.  

Left to freeze by Canada police, Darrell Night exposed their deadly ‘starlight tours’ (yahoo.com)

Exclusive: Antioch Police Chief Steven Ford speaks with KPIX about racist text scandal, troubled department (msn.com)

New AP/ABC film probes white supremacy in law enforcement (yahoo.com)

 

But I want to hear more about Steve's thoughts on the UA offensive looking to have begun at least preparatory phase.  Are you teasing us Steve?  that would be cruel.  more data please.

Edited April 26, 2023 by sburke

[kevinkin]

38 minutes ago, Battlefront.com said:

there could be some truth to what this investigation has supposedly uncovered

Nothing wrong with bringing up items in the public record and letting the public decide if there is anything to it. Most don't have time to do that research ourselves. Does not look like the writer made any assessment other than implying "where there is smoke there is fire". Typical Washington banter, big deal. I am all for fast and lose business dealings as long as the law is obeyed. And the writer does not say any laws were broken. But maybe some judgment was affected along the way. I really don't care who the writer is or the publisher. I try to treat these type of reports as stand alone documents. That article will not have legs because it's based on public records which are not juicy enough for today's news cycle.  

[Battlefront.com]

1 minute ago, Astrophel said:

Right tends to have more power and money.  It appears they are action oriented but most of the big social changes in the last fifty years have been achieved by leftish governments working in teams and building consensus.

Yes, but the progress you are talking about is centrist politics.  True consensus governance is always going to appeal more to the left than right because the left is all about consensus.  And yes, by its very nature the right is supported to a much larger extent by a small numbers of people with extremely large amounts of wealth than the left.

1 minute ago, Astrophel said:

The right wing Daily Mail (English language countries) - is building a head of steam with Putin-sympathetic articles, and joining other rightist channels flogging the Hunter Biden horse back onto the race course.  I wonder what interests are being this fairly obvious propaganda gambit.  Somebodies want to freeze the conflict is my guess.

If I see a publication with more than one "Hunter Biden" link I know I should move onto something else.  I believe there is a legitimate story there somewhere, but any publication that is obsessed with this is almost certainly pursuing an agenda driven by money and narrow interests.  I steer clear of left publications where their sidebar is full of "Trump" for the same reason.

Steve

[Battlefront.com]

6 minutes ago, kevinkin said:

Nothing wrong with bringing up items in the public record and letting the public decide if there is anything to it. Most don't have time to do that research ourselves.

Absolutely, but it is important to understand the probable or possible bias of the source.  As you say, most don't have the time to do that research.   Like I said, a few days ago I just so happened to have discovered that Real Clear Politics turned into a right wing billionaire funded agenda rag, so I posted to save people time figuring that out for themselves

6 minutes ago, kevinkin said:

Does not look like the writer made any assessment other than implying "where there is smoke there is fire".

Perhaps, but when a publication at best draws peoples' attention to smoke and implies fire while ignoring obvious fires, well... then there's a different situation of "where there is smoke there is fire" in terms of who is providing the funding and what the agenda of the publication.

Steve

[sburke]

6 hours ago, Maciej Zwolinski said:

Jeez, mate, that whole insurgency was full of civilian targetting terrorists, maybe the least appealing  "liberation" cause since Mau Mau...

Apartheid wasn't exactly all that appealing either

[billbindc]

52 minutes ago, Battlefront.com said:

I was recently reminded that Real Clear Politics (of which I presume this is an arm of) has transitioned into overt partisan politics funded by obscure sources of big money.  There was a detailed 2020 article about the transition from respected right leaning publication to overt partisan rag here:

https://www.nytimes.com/2020/11/17/us/politics/real-clear-politics.html

As with many things in politics, there could be some truth to what this investigation has supposedly uncovered, but I absolutely have no faith in it being an honest assessment of whatever facts they might have.

Steve

Now hold on there, Steve-o....are you trying to tell me that the most consequential decision in American politics since the end of the Cold War is *not* about a couple of car dealerships in Western Ukraine???

Man...the DeepState™  really has it's claws into you. Next thing you know, you'll be saying support for Ukraine isn't a symptom of the woke virus.

 

[sburke]

2 minutes ago, billbindc said:

Now hold on there, Steve-o....are you trying to tell me that the most consequential decision in American politics since the end of the Cold War is *not* about a couple of car dealerships in Western Ukraine???

Man...the DeepState™  really has it's claws into you. Next thing you know, you'll be saying support for Ukraine isn't a symptom of the woke virus.

 

Steve's laptop has some Hilary emails and that is all I am gonna say on the subject

[Centurian52]

On 4/21/2023 at 3:51 PM, danfrodo said:

Part of ceding was hoping I could do my little part to make the discussion go away .  And I wasn't going to take the time to see if his data was any good, so was throwing in the towel because there's bigger hills for me to die upon.  

Meanwhile, I am wondering how the forum breaks down into UKR spring offensive camps.  I see two main camps in the world of internet opinion:

1.  UKR offensive will be big, sudden surprise attack on (mostly) one axis and we will know it's the real deal and will come late spring.

2.  UKR will conduct increasingly aggressive corrosion plus some attacks of small-ish depth, like 5-10 kms, in multiple areas to shape the battlefield and completely confuse Putin as to where to put his reserves.  Then will strike later in summer in a much bigger way and we will then know that's the real deal.

I am believer in #2

I don't pretend to have any idea how Ukraine will conduct their offensive. But I'm beginning to form a picture of just how ill-prepared Russia is to receive it. ISW's April 23 report suggests that all, or nearly all, Russian units are committed to the frontline. That means they have no reserves. Apparently they have been seriously demechanized, and many units may be relegated to moving on foot. They are short on both personnel and equipment. Their units are fragmented and staffed by undertrained personnel. They haven't demonstrated an ability to coordinate large multi-brigade maneuvers in months.

It all adds up to a really dire situation for the Russians. Basically, I don't think they have the strength to hold their outer-crust of defenses, I don't think they have the level of multi-unit coordinated to give ground in a controlled manner, they don't appear to have the reserves to counter a breakthrough, and if they try to counter a breakthrough by stripping units from other fronts they are likely to open themselves up to opportunistic offensives on those other fronts, such as what happened at Kharkiv. I really don't want to overhype the Ukrainian offensive, because I know the more we drum up expectations the more likely Ukraine is to fall short of those expectations. But this really looks like a recipe for a total collapse of the Russian frontline.

Russia has been reduced to a static army, and I believe Ukraine intends to make a return to maneuver warfare. Historically, static armies are pretty helpless in the face of maneuver warfare.

[Letter from Prague]

40 minutes ago, sburke said:

Steve's laptop has some Hilary emails and that is all I am gonna say on the subject

If you're bringing buttery males you have to mention freeze peach too, otherwise it's not proper.

[kevinkin]

36 minutes ago, Battlefront.com said:

who is providing the funding and what the agenda of the publication.

Investigative reporting almost always has an agenda. It's a waste of time to go fishing for a story at random. They just don't fall in the reporter's lap. If the writer's boss tells him to go dig up or fabricate dirt on a rival (as if that has not happened before) the reporter should quit. That article will not have legs since it's based on public records which are not juicy enough for the news cycle. Now, if there were a few blondes in the story ... 

[BlackMoria]

13 minutes ago, kevinkin said:

Now, if there were a few blondes in the story ... 

Pfffhhh.  Blondes are so old school.   Strippers or Porn Stars is where the real news is these days.  

Edited April 26, 2023 by BlackMoria

[Centurian52]

On 4/22/2023 at 10:15 AM, dan/california said:

If only we had a good simulator to test some of these ideas in? Anybody have any leads?

Considering the range of most of these systems an operational sim would probably be more appropriate than a tactical sim.

[dan/california]

7 minutes ago, Centurian52 said:

Considering the range of most of these systems an operational sim would probably be more appropriate than a tactical sim.

I would argue that tactical games simply have to have bigger maps. When a well equipped infantry platoon can have SEVERAL systems whose range is measured in kilometers, and high troop densities are sort of suicidal, the definitions have to adjust.

Edit: This is somewhat terrain dependent obviously.

Edited April 26, 2023 by dan/california

[Haiduk]

Ukraine today returned 44 POWs (including two civilians)

This guy didn't see apples very long time...

[kevinkin]

11 minutes ago, BlackMoria said:

Pfffhhh.  Blondes are so old school.   Strippers or Porn Stars is where the real news is these days.

I never said what their occupation was. Let your mind go wild. 

[sburke]

12 minutes ago, BlackMoria said:

Pfffhhh.  Blondes are so old school.   Strippers or Porn Stars is where the real news is these days.  

blonde stripper/porn stars?  Like Brad Pitt? (yes he actually did have a gig as a stripper)

[NamEndedAllen]

10 hours ago, JonS said:

Yes, but they aren't acting as lawyers when in the role of lawmakers. They don't get to set the rules because they're lawyers. They get to set them because they're lawmakers. Edit: and the lawmakers-who-trained-as-lawyers don't get to ensure the rules are followed either, because of that pesky old separation of powers thing - the executive and legislative branches aren't supposed to mess with the independent judiciary, etc.

The more important point, though, is that if you jettison your principles as soon as things get a bit tough, then you don't really have any principles. The reason 'we' get to tell ourselves that we're better than 'them' is because we at least try to hold ourselves to the rules we set. If we ditch those rules - and principles - then we're really just them wearing a fake nose and glasses.

Not arguing about the separation of powers of course, or the ethics that we both embrace! Rather, a side bar observation about the similar circumstance of lawyers and lawmakers - the actual individuals - to the revolving door between industry and the federal Agencies and Departments. Lawyers are inextricably woven into both the creation of our laws and their enforcement & adjudication. In the USA, they are often the very same persons, lawyers in different phases of their careers. Not disputing your second paragraph because we agree! Only pointing out that the same individuals - and they are lawyers, not say, scientists - often occupy both roles and carry with them their individual biases both political and personal. Comments are made here about lawyers, often in rather disparaging ways. Yet they are inseparable from societies’ fabric.

Edited April 26, 2023 by NamEndedAllen

[sross112]

When we are looking for the beginning of the UA offensive and looking for where the main efforts are, I think there will be some different tells than what we would historically look for. One of the big ones will be a drone campaign. A couple months ago there were articles about the UA training up a bunch of FPV pilots and creating units of them. Then there have been a couple links to stacks of FPV drones being built or delivered to the UA. Followed up by a few videos of their use, but nothing concentrated or repetitive in a concentrated area. 

It is my thought that this unit will be committed to the area that the UA wants to seriously attrite prior to unleashing the assault elements. I'm not sure of the range on those FPVs, but I would expect to see them hammering the logistics and support elements while the drone bomber units are working the front line in conjunction with arty. Basically doing what we saw in that trench clearing video in the last couple days; work it until everything is wounded, killed or located and suppressed, then close with and destroy. Essentially emptying out a section of the front trenches for the mobile groups to be able to drive through while simultaneously wrecking as much as possible with the FPVs along the support tail. 

Of course the flanks will probably see the historical approach with arty suppression and holding actions until the target area is cleared and breached. Then rolling up the flanks and defending the breach. 

Or maybe I'm wrong and they use a tactic like that trying to eat a BTG a day on another section of front for a couple weeks. Making it look like the main point of attack to draw in reserves and reinforcements from the rest of the line, then smashing a breach more conventionally where the line has been thinned and there are better opportunities for operation goals. 

So many unanswered questions.... 

[Harmon Rabb]

11 hours ago, Vic4 said:

Never has a cancelled agent been welcomed home with such open arms. 

Tucker Carlson is out at Fox News but welcome on Russian TV

https://apple.news/AmuE4mC7HSbCubQOjGWYy7A

I read an interesting article from the Washington Post relating to Tucker and the war in Ukraine. Apparently Murdoch was not happy with Carlson's anti-Ukrainian position and it was one of the reasons he removed him.

Quote

Tucker Carlson had dinner with his ultimate boss, Rupert Murdoch, two weeks ago in Los Angeles, and everything seemed just fine.

But according to people familiar with their conversation and Murdoch’s thinking, the 92-year-old billionaire founder of Fox News had grown weary of some of Carlson’s increasingly far-right commentary on his nightly prime-time show — as well as some of the swaggering host’s behind-the-scenes attitude.

 

At that particular moment, he was disturbed by Carlson’s stance on Ukraine. A graphic on Carlson’s show had referred to Volodymyr Zelensky, president of the besieged nation, as a “Ukrainian pimp,” and the host had repeatedly excoriated the U.S. government for providing aid to its defense against Russian attacks.

 

These stances had made Carlson a star on Russian state-controlled TV. But they had drawn furious blowback from powerful Republicans who see U.S. support for Ukraine as a bulwark in a fight for freedom and democracy — some of whom had Murdoch’s ear. After one such on-air segment in mid-March, Murdoch joined a Fox newsroom meeting to loudly challenge Carlson’s message, according to people familiar with the meeting, who spoke on the condition of anonymity because of newsroom confidentiality policies.

Source: For the Murdochs, Tucker Carlson became more trouble than he was worth (The Washington Post)

[Battlefront.com]

2 hours ago, kevinkin said:

Investigative reporting almost always has an agenda.

Hopefully it is uncovering the truth.  The problem is when the organization doing the investigating is not being truthful with its audience, then one SHOULD question if the investigation is sticking to the facts or is spinning them to serve an agenda that is not disclosed to the audience.  There's a huge difference in the standards and reliability of Bellingcat vs. Project Veritas, for example.

There's plenty of excellent investigative work being done by established media companies with relatively high levels of transparency following established journalistic rules for ensuring basic standards of practice.  If an organization is not following those standards, it is by choice.  And if that's the choice they are making, then there's likely something nefarious going on and the products they put out should be considered suspect.  That doesn't mean everything they present is junk, it's just more likely than not it is.

Steve