How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?

[Haiduk]

42 minutes ago, Kinophile said:

But more on today's Sebastopol attack. 

 

Russian authorities claimed BSF repelled attack on outer harbor on 24th of April in 3:30 of morning, but indeed one drone exploded inside of Streletskaya Bay. So, it could overcame six lines of defense. Interesting, that Russian MoD initially reported about two drones (one was destroyed, other "self-detonated on outer harbor"), later they already claimed about three drones , but anyway still to tell about two destroyed, so where the third is gone? ) 

Other video of drone explosion in the bay and video how drones approached to the bay

Geolocation shows as if explosion was on the mooring

Also about why today? On 24th of April 1918 army of Ukrainian People Republic in result of dare attack entered to Crimea through Perekop. So it's just a symbolic greeting and a tip )

Edited April 24, 2023 by Haiduk

[Battlefront.com]

Politico article about some of the Russian opposition voices openly stating that the only way to get rid of Putin is to get violent within Russia:

https://www.politico.eu/article/targeted-killings-spark-debate-within-russian-opposition/

And another one about private concerns within the Biden Admin about what might happen if Ukraine's counter offensive this year falls flat:

https://www.politico.com/news/2023/04/24/biden-ukraine-russia-counteroffensive-defense-00093384

Steve

[Haiduk]

In today's article Mashovets gives other information about quantity of Russian troops and expalins why Russians actions now more similar to WW1 "infantry+artillery", because they have big lack of armor. And this is one more reason, why they make a bet on aviation, artilelry and as told today Budanov of mass missile strikes on UKR troops, when they will begin to grouping for offensive.  

So, as if according to his info "Russian Federation combined groupment of troops on South-Western Theater" (official Russian name of their army in Ukraine. Hm... if theer is south-western theater exists, then it's can be north-westren, for example, against Baltia) has:

- 1764 tanks

- 4289 armored vehicles

- 2994 artillery pieces 

- 870 MLRS

- 396 200 personnel  (it's unclear this is MoD troops only or with PMCs and Rosgvardiya)

 

All theese forces are in 48 brigades, 122 regiments, 95 separate battalions and 50 detachments of battalion-level. 

All 396K of troops is 655 conditional battalions, if we throw out artillery (approx 1:3), we get about 490 batatlions. But indeed with all available Russian armor can be equipped only 59 conditional tank battalion and 143 motor-rifle battalions - total 202. So, Russians have about 50 % of deficite in armor. Also because of this their new established tank/motor-rifle regiments of Territorial Troops in most case either have big lack of armor or almost don't have it at all  

 

 

Edited April 24, 2023 by Haiduk

[Beleg85]

55 minutes ago, Jiggathebauce said:

Not too much mainstream reporting on this, but far right admiral is apparently wanting to run for president of Russia in 2024. Strelkov is not a fan of this individual. https://romania.postsen.com/trends/215931/Who-is-the-navy-captain-proposed-by-Russian-officers-to-replace-Putin-The-oligarchs-drink-the-blood-of-the-people-VIDEO.html#lgv8dlaquho39tq6euh

I am not sure if he can be called far right; those labels rarely work there as they do in western world. We can for example bet entire club of the gentlemen from the picture is longing after  USSR. Presence of retired col. Kvachkov (often guest in Girkin's "cellar talks") does not give much credbility to this entire endevour, to be frank.

1 hour ago, Battlefront.com said:

Every sector of the front has opportunities for an attack.  ISW's comprehensive assessment from yesterday helps understand what they are.  Using their work as a basis, here is what I see as the pros/cons of each of the seven identified axis:

This is very interesting summary. Only thing I wouldn't agree is that both sectors of northern axis are good for defenders. At least during Khrakiv offensive up to Kupyansk forest complexes/rivers/hills actually seem to favour attackers. I know how it sounds, but from what I read at least Ukrainian spearhead then rode very lightly into battle, using terrain to their advantage many times to circle around Russian positions. In exploitation phase light, fast forces with enough morale may have upper hand over heavier defenders, especially if **** hit the fan for muscovites and there would be general state of melee along several dozens kms. Situation in Zaporozhia may actually be (in theory) worse for attackers in this regards.

Edited April 24, 2023 by Beleg85

[Battlefront.com]

48 minutes ago, Haiduk said:

I didn't translate all, what wrote Mashovets, but he counts in other way

On his opinion zone of responsibility of FG "East" is about 175 km in a straight line. And if we take into account all curves of frontline this lenght inreases to 250 km. I doub't he is right about 250 km, because according DeepState map frontline from Shcherbaky to Slavne is 190 km. But well. Further he says most of capable troops deployed now on Vuhledar direction (and this is much more, than Vuhledar town itself - approx from Velyka Novosilka to Slavne).

Yeah, I did a rough calculation and didn't know exactly where to start or end.  I also did not account for the fine shape, so I can believe my measurement is off by a significant amount.  I should have mentioned that.  However, I agree that 250km sounds too high unless he's starting or ending the measurement from different positions.

48 minutes ago, Haiduk said:

So he says it's about one "FULL conditional battalion" for 4,5 km of front.

With 250km front?  The figure should be lower, though not by much.

48 minutes ago, Haiduk said:

BUT. This is for one-echelone defense! As I wrote in previous post, Russians now are regrouping own defense in two echelones. So they will be forced either to expand responsibility zone of theese "conditional battalions", but not full so far more that appointed 5 km, or build focal defense, having hope on own artillery, aviation and "Tsar-ditch" 

Yes, this is the big problem.  The troop density calculation starts with the assumption that everybody is at the front with one echelon deep.  It also makes the presumption that there is no logistics or support personnel.  So from the theoretically we deduct for specific considerations.  For example, are the two echelons of equal size?  Probably not. 

Whatever the case is, we know that Russia has a significant amount of manpower in this sector of front.  If it is thinly spread, then other sectors are going to be even more thinly spread.

Steve

[Jiggathebauce]

2 minutes ago, Beleg85 said:

I am not sure if he can be called far right; those labels rarely work there as they do in western world. We can for example bet entire club of the gentlemen from the picture is longing after fall of USSR. Presence of retired col. Kvachkov (often guest in Girkin's "cellar talks") does not give much credbility to this entire endevour, to be frank.

 

To quote a summary of the speech given by a user who shared this to me originally:

"It appears a Russian Naval officers mutiny is being announced, with the intent of restoring a true Tsar to succeed Putin. An assembly of Russian officers said that if their leader comes to power, there will be fundamental changes.

The points:

"personnel revolution";

lustration of the enemies of the people;

"degreasing" the oligarchs;

severing diplomatic relations with all hostile countries;

an end to all immigration

the abolition of the free circulation of the dollar and the euro;

growth of the population of the Russian Federation to one billion.

While this may not lead to internal war or conflict right away, it is certainly seditious. The new Supreme Ruler of Russia and future candidate for President of Russia 2024 has been nominated from within the Officers' Assembly: Captain Ivan Otrakovsky.

Otrakovsky has a long history of membership in far right nationalist groups and associations with breakaway sect of the Orthodox Church. If he doesn't find a window big enough in the coming months, with the help of what looks to be significant military backing, this could very well be the new Tsar of the most horrifyingly dystopian country on the planet. Brace for impact."

 

Sounds far right to me

[BlackMoria]

11 minutes ago, Jiggathebauce said:

growth of the population of the Russian Federation to one billion.

I spit up my drink on my screen at this one.   Just how much delusion can one snort up one's nose and not overdose?  Especially in light of an earlier point just above that - "an end to all immigration."

There is just plain $**t talking and then there is "mad dog howling at the moon" talking.

Edited April 24, 2023 by BlackMoria

[Vacillator]

9 minutes ago, BlackMoria said:

I spit up my drink on my screen at this one

They'll certainly need to 'get busy in the bedroom' at currently 144 million and declining.

[BlackMoria]

3 minutes ago, Vacillator said:

They'll certainly need to 'get busy in the bedroom' at currently 144 million and declining.

Do anyone run this past the russian women?  Are russian women 'all in' at being pregnant at 14 and popping out kids until menopause?   Absolutely no thought has been given to the objectives at all.  This is several drunk or stoned out of their minds fools writing their manifesto on a snot encrusted napkin in a bar.

[Jiggathebauce]

6 minutes ago, Vacillator said:

They'll certainly need to 'get busy in the bedroom' at currently 144 million and declining.

And when you consider the ways that could be done practically, all involve mass assault on the autonomy and bodies of women, coated in traditional religious and chauvinistic language. No immigration but probably the trafficking of women captured in war.  Disgusting.

[Beleg85]

22 minutes ago, Jiggathebauce said:

Sounds far right to me

Oh they are nationalist for sure, just in Russian historical mythology ends of ideological horseshoe actually touch themselves and form a circle; they often, very often appeal to "people-ish" communist side of their beloved USSR as contradicted with modern "everybody fo himself"- you can find traces of it even in their statement.

Remember, it's Russia- many things ticks very different there than in the West. For example narodno-bolsheviks sounds like Godzilla and King Kong making alliance to trample everthing civilized under their feet, but they are real thing there. Be it funny even more, it's organization full of intellectuals with genocidal thoughts, but not necesserly some street gang like name could suggest.

And opposite- "liberals" like Navalny can happen to have very nasty far-right past. Or much revered worldwide names like Solzhenitsyn being uber-humanistic and antiviolence and in the same time peddling some infantile nationalism.

So yeah, this is just slightly different world when comes to ideas.

[Jiggathebauce]

 

11 minutes ago, Beleg85 said:

Oh they are nationalist for sure, just in Russian historical mythology ends of ideological horseshoe actually touch themselves and form a circle; they often, very often appeal to "people-ish" communist side of their beloved USSR as contradicted with modern "everybody fo himself"- you can find traces of it even in their statement.

Remember, it's Russia- many things ticks very different there than in the West. For example narodno-bolsheviks sounds like Godzilla and King Kong making alliance to trample everthing civilized under their feet, but they are real thing there. Be it funny even more, it's organization full of intellectuals with genocidal thoughts, but not necesserly some street gang like name could suggest.

And opposite- "liberals" like Navalny can happen to have very nasty far-right past. Or much revered worldwide names like Solzhenitsyn being uber-humanistic and antiviolence and in the same time peddling some infantile nationalism.

So yeah, this is just slightly different world when comes to ideas.

Fascists have always when convenient, appropriated socialist imagery and slogans. Doing so does not make them socialists or leftists, multiple orgs and tendencies repudiate them. Russia has always had a far right nationalist problem. It should always be called out for what it is.

[Battlefront.com]

5 minutes ago, Beleg85 said:

This is very interesting summary. Only thing I wouldn't agree is that both sectors of northern axis are good for defenders. At least during Khrakiv offensive up to Kupyansk forest complexes/rivers/hills actually seem to favour attackers. I know how it sounds, but from what I read at least Ukrainian spearhead then rode very lightly into battle, using terrain to their advantage many times to circle around Russian positions. In exploitation phase light, fast forces with enough morale may have upper hand over heavier defenders, especially if **** hit the fan for muscovites and there would be general state of melee along several dozens kms. Situation in Zaporozhia may actually be (in theory) worse for attackers in this regards.

I've given this a lot of thought since the conclusion of the Kharkiv counter offensive.  To me it seems that part of the reason the Kharkiv offensive ran out of steam is because of the difficult terrain and increasingly moving away from its start line.  At the end even hastily rushed volunteer and mobik units were able to stall out the attack.  In the end Ukraine was able to retake about 10km2.

The primary advantage for Ukraine in the south is there is a possibility for a very large scale mechanized blitz.  There's a lot of territory that could be taken simply because Ukraine can get to it before Russia can reinforce.  The north has the exact opposite prospect.  Even if everything goes great up north, the amount of territory that can be practically taken is modest (10km2), whereas in the south it is theoretically huge (40km2) with maybe 20km2 more practical.

It is my thinking that a breakthrough in the north is going to be tougher than before because Russia has more resources there than last time.  The road network is also worse and Ukraine's base of operations is not near the current front.  I calculated that taking another 10km2 is about 2/3rds of the remaining 2022 territory east of current positions, with ~15km2 being the full amount.  I have excluded the urban areas along the Donets because that's likely an either or thing.  Either Ukraine goes for them or it goes for the rest of Luhansk, not likely both. 

Additionally, there's just about no possibility of obligating Russia to abandon large chunks of territory because it will always be able to maintain some contact with either the Russian or the old LPR borders. 

A breakthrough in the south, on the other hand, has the realistic potential of taking back around 40km2.  There's more land to take back and real possibilities for obligating Russian forces to abandon positions and fall back away from the Dnepr.  Even a more modest win would get Ukraine probably 20km2.

Then there's the fact that Ukraine will have to man new frontlines after this offensive.  If Ukraine has a wildly successful attack in the north, taking back 15km2 of Luhansk, it will add about 250km of new frontline that will have to be permanently manned against frontage with Russia's most populated areas.  By contrast, a wildly successful attack in the south will reduce the frontage by about 200-300km2 and have remaining areas of contact be some of the most distant from Russia's main supply points.

And finally, what does each attack do for Ukraine's strategic picture?  A great success in the north gets it a bunch of trees in places nobody has heard about.  I moderate success in the south is likely to get rid of Russia's land bridge and put Ukrainian forces right up against Crimea.  The two are not comparable in any way.

Steve

 

[Battlefront.com]

39 minutes ago, BlackMoria said:

I spit up my drink on my screen at this one.   Just how much delusion can one snort up one's nose and not overdose? 

Depends on how big a surface area that hooker's arse has   (this is in reference to something real that we discussed early in the war if you missed it).

Steve

[danfrodo]

3 minutes ago, Battlefront.com said:

Then there's the fact that Ukraine will have to man new frontlines after this offensive.  If Ukraine has a wildly successful attack in the north, taking back 15km2 of Luhansk, it will add about 250km of new frontline that will have to be permanently manned against frontage with Russia's most populated areas.  By contrast, a wildly successful attack in the south will reduce the frontage by about 200-300km2 and have remaining areas of contact be some of the most distant from Russia's main supply points.

this is a great point.  Success up north still yields frontline on RU border, which will be fine later, but not now.

[Battlefront.com]

  

7 minutes ago, Jiggathebauce said:

Fascists have always when convenient, appropriated socialist imagery and slogans. Doing so does not make them socialists or leftists, multiple orgs and tendencies repudiate them. Russia has always had a far right nationalist problem. It should always be called out for what it is.

You are missing the point.  The more extreme a political ideology drifts away from a balanced middle, the harder it is to distinguish from the alleged opposite extreme.  The reason is unbalanced systems require many of the same methods of control in order to exist.  Mass arrests, draconian curtailment of civil liberties, perpetual ideological warfare, mass murder, etc.  And once the regime goes down this path, you get all the usual "power corrupts, absolute power corrupts absolutely" problems with the regime leadership.  In the end, the differences between a state that claims its roots in the left and right don't really matter because in the most meaningful ways they are the same.

Steve

[Beleg85]

20 minutes ago, Jiggathebauce said:

Fascists have always when convenient, appropriated socialist imagery and slogans. Doing so does not make them socialists or leftists, multiple orgs and tendencies repudiate them. Russia has always had a far right nationalist problem. It should always be called out for what it is.

I mean yes, you are right from Western point of view (especially that we should call them out, when paired with Ukrainian "nazis" from katsap propaganda), but note how Russian/USSR history looks. Since USSR at least in theory was ultraleftist state, paradise for workers/farmers and imagined sentimental place of societal coherence for many people in Russia nowadays, so its logical fascists/far right/ultraconservatist wanna build on former glory. There is absolutelly no contradiction between far right/far left in Russia (puting aside problem of how both sides of spectrum are valid in our postmodern world anyway)*. So this is not only appropriation of slogans of convenience, it's real and alive political ideology that sips, like Limonov once said, from two buckets of blood at one time (you can check the guy, he was beyond crazy).

*Worth to note that several small groups of anarchists and people from political margins did opposed war from the start and were heavily persecuted-these were largely the guys we see protesting in first days of the war. Good for them, but they are not politically relevant.

Edited April 24, 2023 by Beleg85

[danfrodo]

5 minutes ago, Battlefront.com said:

  

You are missing the point.  The more extreme a political ideology drifts away from a balanced middle, the harder it is to distinguish from the alleged opposite extreme.  The reason is unbalanced systems require many of the same methods of control in order to exist.  Mass arrests, draconian curtailment of civil liberties, perpetual ideological warfare, mass murder, etc.  And once the regime goes down this path, you get all the usual "power corrupts, absolute power corrupts absolutely" problems with the regime leadership.  In the end, the differences between a state that claims its roots in the left and right don't really matter because in the most meaningful ways they are the same.

Steve

My way of thinking about this is that in the end it's about the power desired by the individual that manages to take control, not the ideology they rode on the way up.  Hitler wasn't a fascist as much as he was a hitler-ist.  Stalin used communism to get in power but he was a Stalinist, wanting control for himself at any cost or method or means.  Mao was mos def a Mao-ist first and commie second, though he was probably more of a true believer than the other two mentioned here.

[Jiggathebauce]

 

15 minutes ago, Battlefront.com said:

  

You are missing the point.  The more extreme a political ideology drifts away from a balanced middle, the harder it is to distinguish from the alleged opposite extreme.  The reason is unbalanced systems require many of the same methods of control in order to exist.  Mass arrests, draconian curtailment of civil liberties, perpetual ideological warfare, mass murder, etc.  And once the regime goes down this path, you get all the usual "power corrupts, absolute power corrupts absolutely" problems with the regime leadership.  In the end, the differences between a state that claims its roots in the left and right don't really matter because in the most meaningful ways they are the same.

Steve

I'm still not sure we are talking about the same thing or if we disagree fundamentally, so let me try to argue that

1. EVERY state of every type uses the same methods of control, we all just happen to have different opinions on how justified they are to use them and to what extent. That's what all the police and soldiers and lawyers are there to enforce. Even in what you would probably consider a balanced middle democracy, these methods are used. 

2.the repression of the slaveholder is not morally equivalent to the repression of the liberated. 

3. The extremes cannot meet in all philosophies and all issues. A system that practices and emphasizes collective leadership, is not the same as one that emphasizes individual authority and private exercises of power. 

 

23 minutes ago, Beleg85 said:

I mean yes, you are right from Western point of view (especially that we should call them out, when paired with Ukrainian "nazis" from katsap propaganda), but note how Russian/USSR history looks. Since USSR at least in theory was ultraleftist state, paradise for workers/farmers and imagined sentimental place of societal coherence for many people in Russia nowadays, so its logical fascists/far right/ultraconservatist wanna build on former glory. There is absolutelly no contradiction between far right/far left in Russia (puting aside problem of how both sides of spectrum are valid in our postmodern world anyway)*. So this is not only appropriation of slogans of convenience, it's real and alive political ideology that sips, like Limonov once said, from two buckets of blood at one time (you can check the guy, he was beyond crazy).

*Worth to note that several small groups of anarchists and people from political margins did opposed war from the start and were heavily persecuted-these were largely the guys we see protesting in first days of the war. Good for them, but they are not politically relevant.

Fair points Beleg. And I hope the marginal folks continue to cause smoking accidents all over the federation.

[The_Capt]

6 hours ago, BlackMoria said:

The 1000 sqkm is not one S2 staff.

Can’t get too far into it but that ball has moved quite a bit since back in the day.  Let’s just say that Int staff are armed with more than talc and Stadlers these days.  Personally I can barely keep up.

Edited April 24, 2023 by The_Capt

[Beleg85]

2 hours ago, BlackMoria said:

I spit up my drink on my screen at this one.   Just how much delusion can one snort up one's nose and not overdose?  Especially in light of an earlier point just above that - "an end to all immigration."

There is just plain $**t talking and then there is "mad dog howling at the moon" talking.

USSR had at its high almost 300 mlns. Currently entire Central Europe (many NATO members including) + Eastern has maybe 100-150 mlns and in their imagination should be put under yoke sooner or later. "Close neighourhood" in Central Asia is also becoming populous quite fast. The rest is probably coming from highly theoretical arithmenitcs re China- problem of population disparity between Syberia and China is treated extremelly seriously by Russian nats. Quite frankly going into Kvachkov mind is not the sport I would recommend to anybody. Guy looks like forget where he left his dentures.

1 hour ago, Battlefront.com said:

And finally, what does each attack do for Ukraine's strategic picture?  A great success in the north gets it a bunch of trees in places nobody has heard about.  I moderate success in the south is likely to get rid of Russia's land bridge and put Ukrainian forces right up against Crimea.  The two are not comparable in any way.

Steve

Oh yeah, what I mean it's strategically obviuos South is the way to go for Ukrainians, just tried to balance things out regrading northern sector. Tactically, if you look at Southern front it is chiefly flatlands or gentle hills (steppes even) cut with some very thin treelines in the checkboard fashion, with perhaps only some gorges (yars) giving shelter from direct sight. More place to mechanize manouver, but also much easier to spot and shoot by defenders.

Edited April 24, 2023 by Beleg85

[Kraft]

Arent the approaches to Kherson similarly open terrain?

I have doubts a massed attack will fair any better than the initial (costly) attemps last year, on a position that was arguably less fortified and supply wise worse off than any other front right now.

No idea if the troop concentration is different now though, especially when it comes to arty and air as these I think were the main drivers behind the failures to break through.

Unless there are just so many attacks all across that Russia cant stop them all. But I do not know if there are the resources for that left and 100 Leo1s fresh out of training and some dozen newer ones wont cut it Im afraid.

Edited April 24, 2023 by Kraft

[sburke]

1 hour ago, Battlefront.com said:

  

You are missing the point.  The more extreme a political ideology drifts away from a balanced middle, the harder it is to distinguish from the alleged opposite extreme.  The reason is unbalanced systems require many of the same methods of control in order to exist.  Mass arrests, draconian curtailment of civil liberties, perpetual ideological warfare, mass murder, etc.  And once the regime goes down this path, you get all the usual "power corrupts, absolute power corrupts absolutely" problems with the regime leadership.  In the end, the differences between a state that claims its roots in the left and right don't really matter because in the most meaningful ways they are the same.

Steve

Case in point Zimbabwe.  In my teens I actually helped with clothing drives for material aid.  Pretty depressed when I saw the "liberation" leadership turned out to be f'n aholes.

[dan/california]

 

Quote

 

https://www.economist.com/international/2023/04/24/how-the-war-split-the-mafia

It is a truism among those who study organised crime around the world that war and social dislocation generate opportunities for gangsters and their white-collar collaborators. Yet there are unusual elements of Ukraine’s experience that might permit a different result. The war has severed the decades-old physical and social arteries between the country and Russia’s criminal networks, possibly for years to come. It has given the Ukrainian state further public legitimacy to combat oligarchy and may increase Western participation in, and scrutiny of, the economy. No one sensible thinks smuggling in Odessa will be relegated to a museum. But there is a chance that Ukraine could finally stop being a gangster’s paradise.

 

The last paragraph of a much longer article. 

[JonS]

2 hours ago, BlackMoria said:

Do anyone run this past the russian women?  Are russian women 'all in' at being pregnant at 14 and popping out kids until menopause?   Absolutely no thought has been given to the objectives at all.  This is several drunk or stoned out of their minds fools writing their manifesto on a snot encrusted napkin in a bar.

Well, the other way to grow your population is to steal someone else's. China? The 'Stans? Etc.