How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?

[Seminole]

16 minutes ago, Vanir Ausf B said:

The terrain favors the defenders and it is the most pro Russia part of Ukraine so the Ukrainian military may not be as welcomed as in other parts of Ukraine.

Quoted that from the response tweet (not trying to attribute the thought to you).

To what degree is the desire of the locals a factor, and should it be a factor, in the decision to liberate/conquer?

Going just off the wikipedia Crimean census figures the place post-WW2 has ethnically been roughly 3-1 Russians to Ukrainians.

 

[Haiduk]

Russian command recognized that explosion in Belgorod happened because accident dropping of munition from Su-34 %) 

[Haiduk]

10 hours ago, Seminole said:

Quoted that from the response tweet (not trying to attribute the thought to you).

To what degree is the desire of the locals a factor, and should it be a factor, in the decision to liberate/conquer?

Going just off the wikipedia Crimean census figures the place post-WW2 has ethnically been roughly 3-1 Russians to Ukrainians.

 

In 2014 real number of referendum participants were not more 30-35 %. Many of populaion in Crimea, like on Donbas were indifferent Ukraine or Russia. Many thought Russia would give them Moscow level of salary with Ukrainian level of prices. Naive.  New "masters of Crimea" for nine years completely killed medicine, barbarically destroyed unique Crimean nature in many places, gave many coastal territories under elite real estate building, closing access to the sea for locals. So many Crimeans maybe not enough like Ukraine, but obviously silently hate Russia and many of them in local chats recalled with nostalgia for Ukrianian times, when foreign cruise liners came to Yalta, many rich tourists visited Crimea etc. So, when UKR troops will come to Crimea, most of Crimeans will do nothing due to their conformism. Russians, who settled in Crimea after 2014 will flee in panic. Who will not do this will be deported. Of course, there will be some "idea fighters", who will try to make guerilla, but this will not be "total resistance"   

PS. Just NEVER judge by ethnicity in Ukrainian question. This is almost doesn't work here. 

Edited April 21, 2023 by Haiduk

[Kinophile]

1 hour ago, Battlefront.com said:

I have read many of Hodges posts on the subject and heard him in many interviews.  My view is the same as yours... he's talking longer term than this summer.  But I think he keeps his time tables deliberately vague to bolster support for Ukraine and to make Russians squirm.

Did I mention I like Hodges quite a bit?

Steve

Yah hes great. Him, Mick Ryan, Hertling, Patrick. All good.

[Battlefront.com]

1 hour ago, Vanir Ausf B said:

He actually does have a fairly specific time table, contingent on weapon deliveries.

 

Ah, so he is laying it out like that now.  Interesting.  Well, I don't think there's much chance of it happening without a larger calamity with the Russian front, but then again it's not something that I'd rule out.

Steve

[Battlefront.com]

46 minutes ago, Haiduk said:

Russian command recognized that explosion in Belgorod happened because accident dropping of munition from Su-34 %) 

Interesting that they didn't blame it on Ukraine.  I suppose it is easier to admit to bombing your own people than allowing the Ukrainians through all the air defenses.

Steve

[womble]

1 hour ago, Vanir Ausf B said:

He actually does have a fairly specific time table, contingent on weapon deliveries.

 

Doesn't he have the Kerch Bridge in the wrong slot in that OOB? Is it worth leaving up as a rat-escape-route, vs dropping it to deny rail and road supply?

[Beleg85]

52 minutes ago, Haiduk said:

Russian command recognized that explosion in Belgorod happened because accident dropping of munition from Su-34 %) 

 

[Battlefront.com]

So let me get this straight.  Russia attacks Ukraine and yet gives it thousands of its armored vehicles, kills tens of thousands of its own soldiers in suicide charges, without a fight gives back about 25% of all the land it took, and then bombs its own cities?  One really does have to wonder if Russia knows which side of the war it is fighting on.

Steve

[chrisl]

13 minutes ago, Battlefront.com said:

So let me get this straight.  Russia attacks Ukraine and yet gives it thousands of its armored vehicles, kills tens of thousands of its own soldiers in suicide charges, without a fight gives back about 25% of all the land it took, and then bombs its own cities?  One really does have to wonder if Russia knows which side of the war it is fighting on.

Steve

Milo Minderbinder must have gotten the contract for implementation.  

Everybody has a share.

[Sojourner]

Ben Hodges interview with Ukraine news agency - more depth than a handful of tweets...

https://vchasnoua.com/news/ben-hodges-liberating-crimea-is-the-key-to-victory-for-ukraine-and-it-could-be-done-this-year-1

[Kinophile]

Pretty much agree, Ukraine should and must take Crimea. Im just absolutely not convinced that itll get done this year. Its a year long op in and of itself, a potentially war-winning one. But its 2024's troll baby to bear.

[sross112]

5 hours ago, womble said:

Doesn't he have the Kerch Bridge in the wrong slot in that OOB? Is it worth leaving up as a rat-escape-route, vs dropping it to deny rail and road supply?

The Russians use rail for the majority of their supply, so I'd say drop the rail right away and leave the road open for exodus. Also, leaving the road open so they can use wheeled supply will put a lot of friction into their already strained logistics. It would look better in the end as Ukraine would be seen as humanely leaving open a corridor for civilian supply and movement. 

Crimea is a possibility this year if the RA suffers some catastrophic collapses. I don't see it happening if the offensive is the slow and controlled type, but that could still result in a large collapse. If the RA runs and the UA pursues it could snowball and be a fairly bloodless conquest for the UA. As others have said, it usually goes slow until it goes fast. We'll just have to wait and see how it all plays out.

[dan/california]

https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/defense-aerospace-report/id1228868129?i=1000610011817

https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/geopolitics-decanted-by-silverado/id1614010500?i=1000609231727

Two excellent podcasts. One is essentially entirely about Ukraine, and the other one discusses some of it at length with a relevant member of congress.

One question they inspired, but did not discuss. Would it be possible to mount an AMRAAM, or IRIS-T missile on an M-26 rocket motor much the way they did the SDB, and thereby vastly increase its range and engagement envelope?

[Battlefront.com]

One side benefit of the EU starting to act collectively in its own defense is we can spend more time bashing the EU.  I think our German posters will find some relief in that

Politico article about dysfunctional bureaucracy doing the usual things that dysfunctional bureaucracies do... take forever to do anything:

https://www.politico.eu/article/frustrating-kyiv-dmytro-kuleba-eu-fail-deliver-ammunition-plan/

Steve

[Battlefront.com]

5 hours ago, chrisl said:

Milo Minderbinder must have gotten the contract for implementation.  

Everybody has a share.

Too bad the plane didn't drop a magnesium bomb or scattered mines.  That would have been even more karma.

Steve

[Battlefront.com]

I'm thinking that the relatively large number of Ukrainian kamikaze drone videos is part of a coordinated operation ahead of the offensive.  There sure seems to be a lot of them in a short period of time and doing it that way is bound to have more psychological impact than having them spread out.

Here's another one, but with a difference.  The drone appears to smash right into a Russian soldier who was dismounting from a truck with others:

https://www.reddit.com/r/UkraineWarRoom/comments/12tak4m/a_ukrainian_fpv_kamikaze_drone_strikes_a_group_of/

And yet another kamikaze strike on yet another Scooby Doo van:

Steve

[Battlefront.com]

More interesting videos:

1.  Russia provides Ukraine with more relief, this time in the form of crashing an S-400 launch vehicle while on road march in Russia:

 

2.  Ukrainians preparing a boobytrap in a Bakhmut (censored Igor Girkin tweat):

https://twitter.com/GirkinGirkin/status/1649084577560817664

 

First in a new series of K2 videos from a different sector than the infamous T Intersection videos we all watched.  This one is of Russian reinforcements trying to get to their own trenches.  By K2's count, 10 Russians got KIA or very seriously WIA:

Steve

[Battlefront.com]

Another article on the impacts of sanctions on the Russian war economy.  This one details the shortage of ball bearings that the Russians are dealing with.  Yup, an old WW2 favorite thing to deny the enemy is now a part of this war:

Quote

It’s for that reason that Russia has struggled to make good the 2,000 or more tanks it has lost in 14 months of hard fighting in Ukraine. Russian forces need at least 150 new or restored tanks a month just to maintain their front-line strength.

Yes, there were small stockpiles of ball-bearings in Russia when the wider war kicked off. But Russian rail-operators needed those bearings, too. If anything, the railways’ hunger for bearings grew as their 13,000 locomotives moved more and more replacement men and equipment to the Ukraine front.

Given a choice between building fewer tanks or freezing transport across Russia, Moscow did the smart thing—and chose the former.

Careful analysis of activity at Uralvagonzavod and Omsktransmash strongly hints the factories every month are shipping out just a few dozen modern-ish tanks: either new-build T-72BM3s or T-90Ms or reconditioned T-72s, T-80s and T-90s that technicians have pulled out of long-term storage.

https://www.forbes.com/sites/davidaxe/2023/04/19/whats-perfectly-round-made-of-metal-and-keeping-russia-from-replacing-the-2000-tanks-its-lost-in-ukraine/?sh=7d9dc99923f2

Steve

[Taranis]

Interesting article about the possible composition of reserve and assaults units for the next UKR offensive :
estimated (100 000 men)

https://militaryland.net/news/ukrainian-units-ready-for-the-offensive/

[Bulletpoint]

10 hours ago, BlackMoria said:

My take after 6 months peacekeeping in Bosnia in '93 -  Savagery is baked into human beings.  Sorry, there is no 'better angels of our nature'  My time in Bosnia dispelled that myth real quick.  The 'better angels of our nature' happens because we employ the frontal cortex to govern ourselves.

Well, the frontal cortex is also part of our nature. And you were in Bosnia to keep the peace.

[hcrof]

It kind of blows my mind that Russia can drop a bomb on its own city and simply shrug it's shoulders as if it was no big deal...

In any other country heads would roll, it might even take down the government but in Russia, barely a whisper.

[Bulletpoint]

15 hours ago, Centurian52 said:

More interesting than the raw KIA estimate is that the ratio of estimated Russian KIA to Ukrainian KIA is more than 2:1. Despite the wide range of casualty estimates I've seen (they really have been all over the board), Russian casualties seem to be consistently higher than Ukrainian casualties. But for the most part I've been seeing ratios in the range of 1.5:1 to 1.8:1 in Ukraine's favor. So breaching 2:1 is an exciting possibility. That's pushing out of the zone of peer v peer warfare, and into the zone of near-peer warfare, with Russia as the near-peer to Ukraine.

I don't know why it would be surprising that Russia is only near-peer, with the amount of western hi-tech weapons and training flowing into Ukraine.

Actually I would expect the casualty rates to be much higher in Ukraine's favour than just 2:1. My guesstimate would be more like 3:1 or higher, based on what I've seen so far.

Just looking at Bakhmut, we've seen nine months of constant brute-force assaults straight into the strongest UKR defensive positions, and it's still not taken.

[Seedorf81]

4 hours ago, Battlefront.com said:

More interesting videos:

(..)

 

First in a new series of K2 videos from a different sector than the infamous T Intersection videos we all watched.  This one is of Russian reinforcements trying to get to their own trenches.  By K2's count, 10 Russians got KIA or very seriously WIA:

Steve

This awful K2 video reminds me of the numerous stories from (pre-drone) wars and the soldiers' struggle on what to do when mortars zero in on you when caught in the open or partially open.

Veterans seemed to be fairly equally divided on what to do.

A. Drop down, don't move and wait until the worst is over or

B. Immediately run as fast as you can to get out of the kill-zone.

Although it looks to me that drones "solve" this problem by making any escape virtually impossible, I find it remarkable that the only surviving soldier in this clip is the one who got up and started to run. Would that be luck or wisdom?

I don't know, but the more I see these vids, there more I count myself to be very, very VERY lucky not to be in a war.

Edited April 21, 2023 by Seedorf81

[Astrophel]

11 hours ago, Seminole said:

Quoted that from the response tweet (not trying to attribute the thought to you).

To what degree is the desire of the locals a factor, and should it be a factor, in the decision to liberate/conquer?

Going just off the wikipedia Crimean census figures the place post-WW2 has ethnically been roughly 3-1 Russians to Ukrainians.

 

Talk of ethnicity relating to russian territorial claims is disingenuous.  "Russia" is a collection of conquered peoples and territories.  There are some 21 Republics today and a recent analysis on what might happen when "Russia" disintegrates suggests that some 44 separate nations might be created, with many different languages and cultural cohesions normally associated with ethnicity.

Since 2014 the Moscow government has been energetically reprofiling Crimea, importing "russians" of various ethnicities but loyal to Moscow, and driving out disloyal groups like Tatars and Ukrainians.  I hope the pro-moscow progagandists don't have the gall to demand another referendum.

"Russia" should withdraw to the internationally recognised borders and this means Crimea is returned to Ukraine.  It really is this simple.