How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?

[danfrodo]

51 minutes ago, Battlefront.com said:

Another great video of Ukrainian POWs returning home.  These are not the faces of a defeated people, that's for damned sure.

Geez, that video is a real tear jerker.  So happy for these men (I think was all men?). 

[Battlefront.com]

Video showing three Gepards under Ukrainian command, likely in Germany during training.  Looks fairly recent:

 

Steve

[The_Capt]

3 hours ago, chrisl said:

Doesn't have to be a full team.  Monitoring someone's social media and classified printer (seriously, what 19 year old even thinks they might need a printer for anything?) usage can be mostly automated, and probably will be as they ramp up the "continuous review" that they're apparently transitioning to, anyway.  The automation looks for patterns (keywords, particular groups, contacts with particular people/groups/etc) and kicks it to a person for review if there's a hit.  It doesn't even have to be as good as the non-com two years older than them who would be giving them instructions in the field - it doesn't give instructions, it just monitors.  And for all we know it might have been going on and that's how the intel people poisoned the leak.

I agree that in this case they IC people probably poisoned the leak before we even heard about it.  The first thing I thought when I saw "Ukraine out of AD weapons on April whatever" was "LOL, it's a trap!"

You have never actually done this have you?  It is not the tech to track.  It is the analysis and recording. It is the legal and oversight.  You are talking about an op to track a US citizen in their own country - a member of the military no less.  The hurdles to do this and the bar to do it within the bounds of the law are extreme.  We simply do not “sic trackers on them”, considering if you actually want to prosecute the body of proof needs to be airtight.  Sticking a 19 year old on a system to auto track another 19 year old is a legal and public affairs nightmare waiting to happen and no small bill on effort.  But people are going to believe what they believe.

[panzermartin]

 

A new Ukrainian APC mosaic in Bakhmut?

Apart from that, Russians must have gone crazy regarding the diversity of the assets they are against, this must be the most diverse army the world has ever seen. Quite a difficult task to face. 

[Battlefront.com]

Couple more posts showing a glimpse at the combat power that Ukraine has behind the front:

 

[chrisl]

2 minutes ago, The_Capt said:

You have never actually done this have you?  It is not the tech to track.  It is the analysis and recording. It is the legal and oversight.  You are talking about an op to track a US citizen in their own country - a member of the military no less.  The hurdles to do this and the bar to do it within the bounds of the law are extreme.  We simply do not “sic trackers on them”, considering if you actually want to prosecute the body of proof needs to be airtight.  Sticking a 19 year old on a system to auto track another 19 year old is a legal and public affairs nightmare waiting to happen and no small bill on effort.  But people are going to believe what they believe.

I've managed to avoid it entirely, but I know quite a few people with clearances, and I'm more familiar with the legalities than you might expect. Once you sign the release on the SF-86 they can get essentially anything they want on you, from anyone.  That's essentially what the release does - you exchange any expectation of privacy in return for the clearance.  Even the SF-85, which doesn't even get you a clearance gives the USG that kind of access, but it's rarely used because at that level you don't get any special information.  I know a few people who have screwed up, even in relatively minor ways, and then  been essentially tracked and sometimes followed for extended periods.

[Fenris]

Noticeable uptick in POW clips on Necro Mancers twitter feed over the past few days

https://twitter.com/666_mancer

 

Another clip of UKR troops, guessing it's from the same or similar event as above

 

Edited April 16, 2023 by Fenris

[The_Capt]

3 hours ago, NamEndedAllen said:

You are terrific in so much that you offer. But here…just general speculation and broad opinion. Steve already laid out the case well -  chrisl and others have added much to the question. It’s about mitigating specific risks in a specific context, not your broad picture. It isn’t positing a 100% guarantee. Nothing is. Age related job requirements are throughout society, and this episode suggests the military examine it in the intelligence security context. Your defense boils down to, “We’ve always done it this way.” Which is why so much keeps going amuck. Ironically, reminiscent of your critiques about war fighting doctrine.

 

Not at all. And maybe I actually know what I am talking about, but over to you to judge.  

It is not “we have always done it this way” it the legal and demographic realities of the work.  Now there are some legally age restricted jobs, most of these have to do with child labour.  In my country one has to be over a certain age to work with alcohol.  But this kid was the age of majority, a legal citizen and taxpayer.  You are talking about excluding him based on age, pretty much alone and assigning “responsibility” as a risk mitigation for a made up age of majority.  Good luck in court with that one.

Then there is the who capacity angle. You think that we have 25 year olds lined up around the block?  Military and national security are competing for the same kids as industry and surprise(!) industry can pay better and likely not get you killed.  So if we decide to cut off security clearances below, say 25, we now have holes in all those jobs, this is beyond the legal hurdles.  

So this is legally risky and capacity risky on many levels, hence why sitting around and saying “fix it, they are too young” is missing too many points to ignore.  As to “specific risk in specific context”, you wanna spell those out?  Are we talking the Air National Guard?  All National Guard writ large.  Or maybe just this one unit?

[The_Capt]

4 minutes ago, chrisl said:

I've managed to avoid it entirely, but I know quite a few people with clearances, and I'm more familiar with the legalities than you might expect. Once you sign the release on the SF-86 they can get essentially anything they want on you, from anyone.  That's essentially what the release does - you exchange any expectation of privacy in return for the clearance.  Even the SF-85, which doesn't even get you a clearance gives the USG that kind of access, but it's rarely used because at that level you don't get any special information.  I know a few people who have screwed up, even in relatively minor ways, and then  been essentially tracked and sometimes followed for extended periods.

Well without getting too far into it then and I am not entirely sure about the US but even with the legal waivers one signs there are still a lot of legal hurdles to jump over.  For example one cannot simply send the MPs into this guys home off base, kick in the door and toss the place.  There is still due process in place.  They can do all sorts of background checks before granting clearance but going after someone for violations is a criminal investigation, not done randomly on a hunch.  Your people who have been tracked likely had due legal processes and oversight put in place to do that or anything collected would likely get tossed by a decent lawyer.

The US actually has some of the widest protections for citizens as granted by the constitution.  So I am pretty sure that no matter what one signs they are not going to start tracking and tapping without due process.  That and we are talking about a lot of people to put this kinda push on, probably thousands.  Letting loose the AI hounds and waving waivers sounds cool right up to the point you wind up in court.

[sburke]

22 minutes ago, The_Capt said:

The US actually has some of the widest protections for citizens as granted by the constitution.  So I am pretty sure that no matter what one signs they are not going to start tracking and tapping without due process.  That and we are talking about a lot of people to put this kinda push on, probably thousands.  Letting loose the AI hounds and waving waivers sounds cool right up to the point you wind up in court.

my personal experience makes me a lot less certain about them following any legal standards.  Though those experiences are fairly distant now.

[kimbosbread]

20 minutes ago, The_Capt said:

Then there is the who capacity angle. You think that we have 25 year olds lined up around the block?  Military and national security are competing for the same kids as industry and surprise(!) industry can pay better and likely not get you killed.

If you are any good, why the hell would you join the military to be an IT guy? If you wanna be a soldier sure, but IT... what's the point?

If you are even halfway decent, there are thousands of tech companies, many in military adjacent areas that pay well enough to afford an apartment in a tier1 US or Candian city without roomates (or in SpaceX's case, half of a FAANG with longer hours). You don't have to be a stanford grad or anything like that either; it's purely ability to pass coding and design interviews at the entry level, which I've seen average but motivated people do easily.

[chrisl]

10 minutes ago, The_Capt said:

Well without getting too far into it then and I am not entirely sure about the US but even with the legal waivers one signs there are still a lot of legal hurdles to jump over.  For example one cannot simply send the MPs into this guys home off base, kick in the door and toss the place.  There is still due process in place.  They can do all sorts of background checks before granting clearance but going after someone for violations is a criminal investigation, not done randomly on a hunch.  Your people who have been tracked likely had due legal processes and oversight put in place to do that or anything collected would likely get tossed by a decent lawyer.

The US actually has some of the widest protections for citizens as granted by the constitution.  So I am pretty sure that no matter what one signs they are not going to start tracking and tapping without due process.  That and we are talking about a lot of people to put this kinda push on, probably thousands.  Letting loose the AI hounds and waving waivers sounds cool right up to the point you wind up in court.

Canada has better privacy laws than the US.  I know one guy who was walked away from the lectern at gunpoint at a conference because both he and the person who cleared his slides overlooked something.  He had something like weekly interviews for a year, got followed, probably wiretapped (that still takes a court order), the full works.  Another person who was followed out of the cleared area of a national lab at gunpoint just because he was working late and the guards felt like following him all the way to a grocery store.

The US constitution does have a lot of protections for the normal citizen.  Something that exists nowhere in that document, and has rarely been addressed by the court, is a right to privacy of information.  Where it has been addressed, you have essentially no right to privacy with respect to any information that you've shared with a third party.  There are various state and federal laws that protect some of that (your video rental record, your medical records, communications with your attorney in most cases), but none of those are constitutional protections, and most of them are waived when you sign up for a clearance.  The investigators use your signed waiver to get whatever they want.  And if there's something they want to pursue that they need an additional release for, you sign the release or the investigation stops and you don't get the clearance.  Tracking anything you do at work using employer resources?  Any and every employer does that to some extent, and it's entirely legal.  When the US government is doing it in its role as an employer, you have the rights of an employee, not the rights of a general citizen.  

OPM is allegedly moving to a "continuous review" mode, rather than periodic renewals, where cleared people are essentially under investigation at all times.  I haven't been interviewed for anybody's renewals in a while, so maybe they're already doing it.  But we also haven't been in the office much until the last 6 months, so if the investigators are following chains of people it's slower and less convenient for them. I also don't answer the phone for numbers that I don't know and am bad about checking my voicemail (it's always about my car warranty), so maybe they've been trying to call.

The flip side of it all is that in the US there are very few actual laws directly related to handling of classified information - it's mostly a contract between you and the government that you won't reveal it. The rules are primarily through executive order.  That's why part of what Teixera is being charged with is a WWI era law. Simple unauthorized possession of classified information is generally not illegal - how you came to have it and what you do with it are what affect the legality. Most of the punishments for mishandling are administrative (anal probe, losing your clearance forever), and criminal only comes into play if you deliberately access stuff you aren't legally supposed to have or do something illegal (like export or pass to an adversary) information that you legally have.

 

[JonS]

1 hour ago, The_Capt said:

Sticking a 19 year old on a system to auto track another 19 year old is a legal and public affairs nightmare waiting to happen

Quis custodiet ipsos custodes?

[The_Capt]

9 minutes ago, chrisl said:

Canada has better privacy laws than the US.  I know one guy who was walked away from the lectern at gunpoint at a conference because both he and the person who cleared his slides overlooked something.  He had something like weekly interviews for a year, got followed, probably wiretapped (that still takes a court order), the full works.  Another person who was followed out of the cleared area of a national lab at gunpoint just because he was working late and the guards felt like following him all the way to a grocery store.

The US constitution does have a lot of protections for the normal citizen.  Something that exists nowhere in that document, and has rarely been addressed by the court, is a right to privacy of information.  Where it has been addressed, you have essentially no right to privacy with respect to any information that you've shared with a third party.  There are various state and federal laws that protect some of that (your video rental record, your medical records, communications with your attorney in most cases), but none of those are constitutional protections, and most of them are waived when you sign up for a clearance.  The investigators use your signed waiver to get whatever they want.  And if there's something they want to pursue that they need an additional release for, you sign the release or the investigation stops and you don't get the clearance.  Tracking anything you do at work using employer resources?  Any and every employer does that to some extent, and it's entirely legal.  When the US government is doing it in its role as an employer, you have the rights of an employee, not the rights of a general citizen.  

OPM is allegedly moving to a "continuous review" mode, rather than periodic renewals, where cleared people are essentially under investigation at all times.  I haven't been interviewed for anybody's renewals in a while, so maybe they're already doing it.  But we also haven't been in the office much until the last 6 months, so if the investigators are following chains of people it's slower and less convenient for them. I also don't answer the phone for numbers that I don't know and am bad about checking my voicemail (it's always about my car warranty), so maybe they've been trying to call.

The flip side of it all is that in the US there are very few actual laws directly related to handling of classified information - it's mostly a contract between you and the government that you won't reveal it. The rules are primarily through executive order.  That's why part of what Teixera is being charged with is a WWI era law. Simple unauthorized possession of classified information is generally not illegal - how you came to have it and what you do with it are what affect the legality. Most of the punishments for mishandling are administrative (anal probe, losing your clearance forever), and criminal only comes into play if you deliberately access stuff you aren't legally supposed to have or do something illegal (like export or pass to an adversary) information that you legally have.

 

If you are telling me that the US is basically a kangaroo court within national security, then it has got some real problems.  This is the kind of situation our adversaries are dealing with and it results in gross abuses and overreach along with extremely bloated internal security organizations.  Everyone who gets a clearance is made well aware of the consequences of a breach and investigations of breaches happen; however, they need to hold up in court - unless that magic waiver suspends presumption of innocence as a legal norm.  What you are describing set up scenarios where someone in CIS who does not like someone can unilaterally and without oversight unpeel an employees life outside of a legal system.

I am sorry but that does not match my experience and frankly all these “gunpoint” stories are either exaggerated, or freakin insane.  What possible reason does security enforcement have to draw weapons in a conference over uncleared slides?!  I mean I think you are being truthful and heard this stuff, don’t take me wrong, but these second hand stories sound a bit strange. I mean seriously where did these guys work?  (Don’t answer that, I really do not want to know)

Further, no matter how much whizz bang AI keyword search engines we are talking about this is going to require attention and resources.  First off one has to gain access to that discord channel, or hack the kids home computer.  Then you need to track and record everything going on in there to build a legal case for prosecution. Keywords are easy to dodge with jargon and slang, so to actually go anywhere we are talking a team of living people, with oversight. We just lived this in GWOT.  The last time the US played fast and loose with drag netting and broad intel it 1) did not really yield much and 2) blew up in peoples faces badly.  I am a big fan of precise and professional jobs not ham fisted butt sniffing exercises, but that is just me.

Look, I think we have ridden this little whoopsie about as far is we can to be honest.  People can believe what they want to, in the end I have no doubt there will be a lot of heat and light all over this. I am quickly hitting a threshold of things we do not talk about and am not that invested in trying to prove my points on this subject.

What we do need to be talking about is how this leak may affect this war, if at all. And where it goes from here.  One sad lonely kid who is going to spend 20 years in jail is about as relevant as Chinese balloons at this point.  I for one do not think the kid had the know how or skills to do more than a broad intel vomit, most of which are likely already tied off.  As to real damage, we will have to wait and see.

[Ultradave]

36 minutes ago, chrisl said:

it's mostly a contract between you and the government that you won't reveal it.

It's mostly a lengthy set of rules and procedures. 

As far as revealing it, you know you can't. And in some respects, the government trusts that those who know classified info won't reveal it, because they've been vetted, and the consequences of being caught are severe. In the vast majority of cases this works. They trusted me - and yet, I could walk out of work and write down reams and reams of classified info and hand it to someone - stuff that's just even today rattling around in my head. I never would of course. Know what my security out brief was when I retired "You know what you can and can't talk about. So just DON'T" 

I had a (now) humorous security infraction years ago. Issued a letter proposing we look into a noise abatement technique. Came out of college textbooks, but we applied it to a submarine (in theory). So we issued it as straight NOFORN, not classified. Naval Reactors gets the letter. I get a call "You know this letter you sent out is CONFIDENTIAL-NOFORN, right?"  "Uhhhhhhhh, nooooo?" Explained the textbook part. Nope: a noise abatement technique with name or class of sub in the same letter classifies it. No gunpoint, no yelling - "You know what to do, right?"   "Yes, sir, we'll take care of it" 

"Good" he said and we never heard more about it.  Paper letter issue - just had to retrieve or verify destroyed the 13 issued copies. Probably might have been more of an issue if it was supposed to be SECRET, but still, mistakes do happen.

Dave

 

Edited April 17, 2023 by Ultradave

[The_Capt]

1 minute ago, JonS said:

Quis custodiet ipsos custodes?

[danfrodo]

1 hour ago, Fenris said:

Noticeable uptick in POW clips on Necro Mancers twitter feed over the past few days

https://twitter.com/666_mancer

 

Another clip of UKR troops, guessing it's from the same or similar event as above

 

"Strong Men, Armed" as was once said.  LOTS of them!   I don't wanna face this crowd.  I wonder what this is? 

I keep thinking UKR will do extensive corrosion/shaping and maybe some local offensives once the ground dries, for quite a few weeks, maybe even into mid summer.  Then will have a lot of information about RU strength along the line along w better interdiction of RU communications from these operations.  Then UKR will really hit hard using powerful units, some w western weapons & training, to totally unhinge very large RU forces.  Maybe take Starobilsk and wreck supply for much of the Luhanks/Donetsk front.  Take Polohy/Tokmak and maybe a little farther and unhinge the western landbridge, getting Crimea to landbridge crossings under himars range.

[chrisl]

26 minutes ago, The_Capt said:

If you are telling me that the US is basically a kangaroo court within national security, then it has got some real problems.  This is the kind of situation our adversaries are dealing with and it results in gross abuses and overreach along with extremely bloated internal security organizations.  Everyone who gets a clearance is made well aware of the consequences of a breach and investigations of breaches happen; however, they need to hold up in court - unless that magic waiver suspends presumption of innocence as a legal norm.  What you are describing set up scenarios where someone in CIS who does not like someone can unilaterally and without oversight unpeel an employees life outside of a legal system.

I am sorry but that does not match my experience and frankly all these “gunpoint” stories are either exaggerated, or freakin insane.  What possible reason does security enforcement have to draw weapons in a conference over uncleared slides?!  I mean I think you are being truthful and heard this stuff, don’t take me wrong, but these second hand stories sound a bit strange. I mean seriously where did these guys work?  (Don’t answer that, I really do not want to know)

Further, no matter how much whizz bang AI keyword search engines we are talking about this is going to require attention and resources.  First off one has to gain access to that discord channel, or hack the kids home computer.  Then you need to track and record everything going on in there to build a legal case for prosecution. Keywords are easy to dodge with jargon and slang, so to actually go anywhere we are talking a team of living people, with oversight. We just lived this in GWOT.  The last time the US played fast and loose with drag netting and broad intel it 1) did not really yield much and 2) blew up in peoples faces badly.  I am a big fan of precise and professional jobs not ham fisted butt sniffing exercises, but that is just me.

Look, I think we have ridden this little whoopsie about as far is we can to be honest.  People can believe what they want to, in the end I have no doubt there will be a lot of heat and light all over this. I am quickly hitting a threshold of things we do not talk about and am not that invested in trying to prove my points on this subject.

What we do need to be talking about is how this leak may affect this war, if at all. And where it goes from here.  One sad lonely kid who is going to spend 20 years in jail is about as relevant as Chinese balloons at this point.  I for one do not think the kid had the know how or skills to do more than a broad intel vomit, most of which are likely already tied off.  As to real damage, we will have to wait and see.

Both stories are real and not exaggerated and were told to me directly by the people who experienced them.  For the guy at the conference it was far enough in the past that it was more amusing to him than anything else. He kept his clearance for quite a long time.  The other guy was pretty shaken by the whole thing, and I haven't kept track of where he is now.  (edit: I just looked him up and he stayed at the facility for 20 years before moving on)

The magic waiver doesn't suspend presumption of innocence, but it does make it easier to gather evidence that's admissible.  But most of the time it's just used to gather information to either renew or remove a clearance.  Inadvertent mishandling rarely leads to anything criminal, and doesn't generally lead to things like those two cases (one of which was just random nutjob guards).

I actually expect there won't be all that much heat and light over the leak.  How much was in it that would have surprised anyone here?  Probably not much.  The more notable things seemed to be the weird anomalies (Vagner, confusing miles and km, etc) and at most it probably gave some insight to RU into what kind of information NATO can collect. From what I saw, most of the data were relatively time sensitive and we only saw them well after they'd really be meaningful, if they were even accurate. The ship of the USG turns very, very slowly, and once this disappears from the press the kid will probably end up doing some time and that will be that.  Not much will change about the way the US handles things.

 

Edited April 17, 2023 by chrisl

[billbindc]

9 minutes ago, The_Capt said:

What we do need to be talking about is how this leak may affect this war, if at all. And where it goes from here.  One sad lonely kid who is going to spend 20 years in jail is about as relevant as Chinese balloons at this point.  I for one do not think the kid had the know how or skills to do more than a broad intel vomit, most of which are likely already tied off.  As to real damage, we will have to wait and see.

Finally the rub. 

Here's my take on how this affects the war: 

Not.

Much.

1. It is little surprise to the Russia side by now that they are completely penetrated and that there's not a lot they apparently can do about it. It is no surprise at all to our allies that they are being spied on anymore than it would be a surprise to us that they do so in return (and yes, they really do spy on us quite devotedly).  There was not much in the way of sources and methods revealed. 

2. The figures and situations reported in the pages I have seen were surprising in one big way...the were not very surprising at all. We've known generally what's been delivered for a lot of the big systems (i.e. HIMARS) and Russia will have already possessed a general idea of what it was hit with. We've had a reasonably good idea of what casualties were and quite clear idea of Russian AFV losses (thanks to our thoroughly exhausted friend Oryx). Even the figures on Ukrainian air defenses were not exactly shocking if we've been listening to the quite pointed Ukrainian asks of the last 12 months.

So what's left? Some schadenfreude from the Ukrainian side which has been warning about NATO/Pentagon leakiness for the duration. Embarrassment at for the Pentagon. Likely some alterations to Ukrainian plans based on what they believe Russia might be able to glean from the data. That's it. 

 

[Fenris]

Did we talk about this?  Another interesting insight into information peddling.  I've seen this person's name a number of times on twitter and read a few of their posts whilst having a look over the fence.  The twitter profile claimed she was a Donbass native - if the reports now coming to light are correct, she's a ex-Navy NCO and was one of the internetizens publishing the photo-shopped UKR casualty figures that eventually made it on to Fox News via Carlson.

 

Edited April 17, 2023 by Fenris

[NamEndedAllen]

4 hours ago, The_Capt said:

 But this kid was the age of majority, a legal citizen and taxpayer.

My mistake. For some reason I thought that in the USA military, command could request TS/SCI for whomever it wants. Or not. And assignments. Didn’t realize that the shoe was on the other rank. 

Edited April 17, 2023 by NamEndedAllen

[cesmonkey]

Announced on Friday:

https://www.rocket.com/article/aerojet-rocketdyne-awarded-2156m-supplement-ongoing-modernization-efforts-and-increase-solid

Quote

Aerojet Rocketdyne has entered into a $215.6 million Cooperative Agreement with the Defense Department to increase domestic rocket propulsion manufacturing capacity to meet increased warfighter demand for tactical missile systems used by the Department of Defense (DoD).

https://www.defense.gov/News/Releases/Release/Article/3362263/dod-strengthens-supply-chain-for-solid-rocket-motors/

Quote

The funds will modernize manufacturing processes at the company's facilities, consolidate production lines, purchase equipment, build systems to process data, and increase production and delivery speed for Javelins, Stingers, and the Guided Multiple Launch Rocket System (GMLRS).

[dan/california]

 

Quote

https://www.economist.com/europe/2023/04/15/in-china-germanys-foreign-minister-does-not-hold-back-and-is-still-welcomed

 

Quote

The exchange was always polite, even though Ms Baerbock had set a robust tone for her visit in a statement made as she left Berlin, when she talked about the “horror scenario of a military escalation in the Taiwan Strait” through which 50% of global trade passes every day. She said that she intended to underline with her visit the European view that a change to the status quo in the strait, let alone a military escalation, would be unacceptable.

I cannot adequately express how much I wish this woman had Scholz's job.

 

Edited April 17, 2023 by dan/california

[Fenris]

Unfortunate but understandable I suppose

 

[Battlefront.com]

3 hours ago, The_Capt said:

I am sorry but that does not match my experience and frankly all these “gunpoint” stories are either exaggerated, or freakin insane.

I thought you Canadians were well aware that when it comes to guns, we are very much insane

My father was a general contractor on several projects at Lincoln Labs, which is basically the east coast version of Los Alamos for those who don't know.  Once on the base my father had an armed escort with him at all times IIRC.  One day my father was at the end of a line of cars lined up at the main gate.  The line was being held up and he had somewhere else to be so he decided to turn around and come back later.  Well, a bunch of nice men with drawn guns came running out at him and surrounded his car. They very politely told him he was already on base property and so they would very much like him to continue onto the gate gate so they could decide if he was allowed to enter or leave. 

Well, that's my one and only gun drawn story

Steve