How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?

[chrisl]

2 hours ago, The_Capt said:

This.  Right?!  

Again, the prime target for any government agency or department are young, smart, and clean.  By definition they are going to lack experience - that is what years on the job are for.  

Ya, guys c'mon.  Does anyone know what it takes to put a full team on someone?  "If someone" is an entire team with legal top cover, oversight and authorities.  Those teams are smaller in the 21st century thanks to things like AI but it is still not one guy following this kid around on Tik Tok or pretending to be a 14 year old on a Discord channel.

But let's say you get greenlit for a counter-intelligence op (that is what this is btw), now you have to do it for thousands of kids in the system.

The kids are kids.  We put guns in there hands and send them out all the time.  We are going to give them clearances and let them loose in cyber space as well.

Now if some people were smart, and I would not be surprised if they were, they have already flipped this thing into a IO win by poisoning the leak.  How does the Russia know what was real and what was BS.  Is the US AD system really about to buckle are was that a honeypot to pull in and make this war more expensive, for example?

  

Doesn't have to be a full team.  Monitoring someone's social media and classified printer (seriously, what 19 year old even thinks they might need a printer for anything?) usage can be mostly automated, and probably will be as they ramp up the "continuous review" that they're apparently transitioning to, anyway.  The automation looks for patterns (keywords, particular groups, contacts with particular people/groups/etc) and kicks it to a person for review if there's a hit.  It doesn't even have to be as good as the non-com two years older than them who would be giving them instructions in the field - it doesn't give instructions, it just monitors.  And for all we know it might have been going on and that's how the intel people poisoned the leak.

I agree that in this case they IC people probably poisoned the leak before we even heard about it.  The first thing I thought when I saw "Ukraine out of AD weapons on April whatever" was "LOL, it's a trap!"

[chrisl]

2 hours ago, The_Capt said:

Damn, critique accepted by the old crone in the back.  Regardless, the stuff is legal all over now and you can pick up a bag or two when you go get your beer.  Probably should not operate a weapon with either of these two substances - ya know, because kids are the only humans to ever do something stupid.

And still disqualifying for government employment in the US, or employment at a national lab where you have to fill out SF-85 or higher.

[Battlefront.com]

23 minutes ago, NamEndedAllen said:

Weren’t there widely reported concerns that the penetration of Russian intelligence had them scrambling? That their search for our sources and methods is aided by the specificity of the published leaks? Hoping that isn’t actually the case. 

Yeah, for sure it is damaging.  I don't mean to downplay it, but compared to what Snowden or Hanssen leaked... yeah, not in the same range from what I can tell.

I've seen the concerns about Russia gaining some information it can use to stop its own leaks.  Maybe, but by now they should know their operations are all sieve like so I'm not sure how much this information could do that a general blind review of protocols wouldn't also accomplish.

Steve

[chrisl]

26 minutes ago, NamEndedAllen said:

Weren’t there widely reported concerns that the penetration of Russian intelligence had them scrambling? That their search for our sources and methods is aided by the specificity of the published leaks? Hoping that isn’t actually the case. 

I suspect that's the biggest risk of the leak.  The details weren't surprising, and the number of military people from various countries in Ukraine was so low that it could be all embassy protective details and maybe ISR liaisons.  Anybody who's actually dangerous or doing something (even in the ISR world) would probably be a contractor with a very well laundered payment path.

[Battlefront.com]

14 minutes ago, chrisl said:

I agree that in this case they IC people probably poisoned the leak before we even heard about it.  The first thing I thought when I saw "Ukraine out of AD weapons on April whatever" was "LOL, it's a trap!"

It is entirely possible that the numbnuts was detected either accidentally or through the internal controls that we've been critical of.  This could explain some of the seemingly "off" aspects of the printed reports in their original form, such as spelling "Wagner" as "Vagner".  It might also explain why the the US government would take the public hit for looking incompetent.

A theory is that the US counter intelligence folks caught wind of what Teixeira was doing after he'd already put out a lot of documents.  Someone might have concluded that the damage was already done.  The old British saying of "in for a penny, in for a pound" (if you're already screwed, you can't be more screwed) may have been applied to the situation.  So they started seeding the little peckerhead with false information so that it would cast the previous leaks into doubt and/or mislead the bad guys into believing the fake stuff was real.

The key to this working is being able to effectively intercept Teixeira's document requests with fakes in a way that wouldn't tip him off that something was wrong.  This would be impossible to do if he had access to EVERYTHING and could download it instantly.  Meaning, too many bases to cover.  So it really rests on what info was still available to him and if it was practical for counter intelligence to feed false information.

There's other possibilities, but might as well stop the speculation there

Steve

[chrisl]

8 minutes ago, Battlefront.com said:

It is entirely possible that the numbnuts was detected either accidentally or through the internal controls that we've been critical of.  This could explain some of the seemingly "off" aspects of the printed reports in their original form, such as spelling "Wagner" as "Vagner".  It might also explain why the the US government would take the public hit for looking incompetent.

A theory is that the US counter intelligence folks caught wind of what Teixeira was doing after he'd already put out a lot of documents.  Someone might have concluded that the damage was already done.  The old British saying of "in for a penny, in for a pound" (if you're already screwed, you can't be more screwed) may have been applied to the situation.  So they started seeding the little peckerhead with false information so that it would cast the previous leaks into doubt and/or mislead the bad guys into believing the fake stuff was real.

The key to this working is being able to effectively intercept Teixeira's document requests with fakes in a way that wouldn't tip him off that something was wrong.  This would be impossible to do if he had access to EVERYTHING and could download it instantly.  Meaning, too many bases to cover.  So it really rests on what info was still available to him and if it was practical for counter intelligence to feed false information.

There's other possibilities, but might as well stop the speculation there

Steve

If it turns out he was trash picking, that would be the easiest way - just put the doctored stuff in the trash.  If he had unrestricted access it's a lot harder, but dynamic substitution of links is easy and it's putting in the spoofed docs that would be harder.  Depending on what he was doing, if it was all about Ukraine and he was predictable in what he pulled, they could both create content for him and get someone into the discord who would prompt him for the doctored stuff.  It will be interesting to find out what actually happened some time in the distant future when we get something approximating a complete story.

[NamEndedAllen]

6 minutes ago, chrisl said:

It will be interesting to find out what actually happened some time in the distant future when we get something approximating a complete story.

Sequel to “The Falcon and the Snowbird”! But presumably not as damaging. 

[cesmonkey]

https://www.cbsnews.com/news/mark-kelly-face-the-nation-transcript-04-16-2023/

Quote

MARGARET BRENNAN: President Biden has said they don't need F-16s, you disagree?

SEN. KELLY: Well, I think it's something we need to look at and I've communicated that to the Department of Defense and the administration. We recently evaluated here in Arizona, in Tucson where I live, two Ukrainian F-16 Pilots, I spoke to the instructor pilots. It's still unclear exactly how they want to use the F-16. They're looking for the next game changer. F-16 is not an artillery piece, it's not a tank, it's very complicated and hard to maintain. We- We've also looked at some other options. I mean, there are other countries that have F-16s as well, that might become an option, but it's going to take some time. I mean, the assessment here is it'll take about a year to train, you know, 12 Ukrainian, if we go that route, 12 Ukrainian MiG-29 pilots.

 

[danfrodo]

Just had my mind blown by how much map distortion we have and how it changes our view of the world.  Turns out russia is not nearly as big as we think (though still very big of course) while africa is way bigger than we think.  I saw this while perusing this daily UKR summary.  First link is UKR summary w some eye opening map stuff.  Second link is more map stuff w link to the originator of the map stuff.  Summary also rehashes some prigozhin blatherings.

https://www.dailykos.com/stories/2023/4/16/2164211/-Ukraine-Update-Wagner-chief-calls-for-end-to-Russia-s-offensive-actions-wants-to-lock-in-gains

https://www.dailykos.com/stories/2023/4/16/2164201/-Maps-present-a-distorted-view-of-the-world-but-it-s-a-lot-worse-than-you-think

 

[Ales Dvorak]

7 hours ago, beardiebloke said:

Some pretty wild conspiracy theories there.

Such as?

[dan/california]

12 minutes ago, cesmonkey said:

https://www.cbsnews.com/news/mark-kelly-face-the-nation-transcript-04-16-2023/

 

F-16s are the 37th thing that should have been started this time LAST YEAR. I can't find he exact article to save my life, but Biden and most of NATO did not accept that the Russians were not going to make a rational decision to cut their losses until the meeting between Spy Chiefs in Turkey in November. Unfortunately they didn't get serious about a great many things until that sank in. I am certainly applying some twenty twenty hindsight, I am also not saying anything I haven't been saying since last May.

[dan/california]

 

Quote

 

https://www.economist.com/europe/2023/04/16/ukraines-counter-offensive-is-drawing-near

 

Quote

But some Western ones are concerned that a serious rout would destabilise Russia to a dangerous degree, making it harder for the Kremlin to swallow any negotiations that might follow. Far preferable, they say, for Vladimir Putin, Russia’s president, to order a semi-voluntary retreat, as he did from the west bank of the Dnieper river in Kherson province in November. The aim is not to defeat Mr Putin militarily but to persuade him that recovering the lost territory would require wave after wave of politically risky mobilisation.

This is the entire bleeping problem. A lot of people in want to let Russia down easy, instead of giving every Russian soldier in Ukraine a simple choice between leave, dies, and surrender. Russia has been turning down easy outs since the middle March 2022, it is time to believe them.

[womble]

35 minutes ago, cesmonkey said:

MARGARET BRENNAN: President Biden has said they don't need F-16s, you disagree?

I think POTUS is right on this one, to a great extent. The F-16 needs good airfields, and those are targets. It'd be a bit rubbish if half a squadron got Kalibred or Kindjahled.

But, what if the Fighting Falcons were based (most of the time) on NATO soil? Served and piloted by Ukrainian AF personnel. What if they just did "touch and go" or "fast refuel" at bases inside UKR and only operated within UKR airspace, attacking targets within UKR official borders? Would that be "too escalatory"? For sure the Russians would scream blue murder, but the international community (well, the US) are being extremely careful to deny UKR missiles that can reach out and touch the Russians where it hurts within Russia itself, so why not provide safe haven for UKR airframes?

I suspect the lawyers would have whole litters of kittens over something like this, so POTUS is effectively correct: the F-16 can't be practically used so shouldn't be sent.

[JonS]

3 hours ago, kevinkin said:

Need to find out how our allies are handling IT support and deep access to state secrets. If they let us in on it fine, if not what are they hiding?

Lolwut? Is this reciprocal?

[billbindc]

1 hour ago, Battlefront.com said:

It is entirely possible that the numbnuts was detected either accidentally or through the internal controls that we've been critical of.  This could explain some of the seemingly "off" aspects of the printed reports in their original form, such as spelling "Wagner" as "Vagner".  It might also explain why the the US government would take the public hit for looking incompetent.

A theory is that the US counter intelligence folks caught wind of what Teixeira was doing after he'd already put out a lot of documents.  Someone might have concluded that the damage was already done.  The old British saying of "in for a penny, in for a pound" (if you're already screwed, you can't be more screwed) may have been applied to the situation.  So they started seeding the little peckerhead with false information so that it would cast the previous leaks into doubt and/or mislead the bad guys into believing the fake stuff was real.

The key to this working is being able to effectively intercept Teixeira's document requests with fakes in a way that wouldn't tip him off that something was wrong.  This would be impossible to do if he had access to EVERYTHING and could download it instantly.  Meaning, too many bases to cover.  So it really rests on what info was still available to him and if it was practical for counter intelligence to feed false information.

There's other possibilities, but might as well stop the speculation there

Steve

Ockham…maybe some of the intel in that stream was not very good.

[kevinkin]

3 minutes ago, JonS said:

Lolwut? Is this reciprocal?

Why not?

[kimbosbread]

In terms of detecting potential leaks, I would hope the approach is similar to what we do in the cybersecurity industry: Essentially have model of normal user or process behavior, and then for every behavior or non-behavior that falls out of that scope, we increase the risk score.

[Battlefront.com]

4 minutes ago, kimbosbread said:

In terms of detecting potential leaks, I would hope the approach is similar to what we do in the cybersecurity industry: Essentially have model of normal user or process behavior, and then for every behavior or non-behavior that falls out of that scope, we increase the risk score.

Yup, and from the little I know that is exactly what happens within secured systems.  If this were a movie/show someone sipping coffee and talking about a sports game with his/her buddy suddenly gets a big flashing red dialog box on their screen with some alert sound (in movies or TV show everything a computer does make noise!), the conversation dies, the coffee is put down, the operator checks the logs, says to coworker "looks like someone is attempting to access items outside of norm.  Better get the boss on the horn, immediately".

Or something like that

I've had to explain to non-tech people that only specific people at specific times are being actively monitored by a Human, but we are *all* being monitored in some way by autonomous algorithms that make recommendations to Humans about who deserves attention.  Search for "bomb making" once and you probably won't get flagged.  Search for "bomb making" while also doing encrypted chats with a known terrorist group... well then, you might just win a prize!

Steve

[Battlefront.com]

Another great video of Ukrainian POWs returning home.  These are not the faces of a defeated people, that's for damned sure.

https://www.reddit.com/r/UkraineWarRoom/comments/12ol1gp/easter_greetings_heroes_ukrainian_pows_exchange/

And official MoD video of a drone hit on some communications infrastructure in Belgorod:

 

Steve

[sburke]

9 minutes ago, Battlefront.com said:

Yup, and from the little I know that is exactly what happens within secured systems.  If this were a movie/show someone sipping coffee and talking about a sports game with his/her buddy suddenly gets a big flashing red dialog box on their screen with some alert sound (in movies or TV show everything a computer does make noise!), the conversation dies, the coffee is put down, the operator checks the logs, says to coworker "looks like someone is attempting to access items outside of norm.  Better get the boss on the horn, immediately".

Or something like that

I've had to explain to non-tech people that only specific people at specific times are being actively monitored by a Human, but we are *all* being monitored in some way by Google, Facebook, TikTok, Apple etc

Steve

fixed that for you

[NamEndedAllen]

1 hour ago, dan/california said:

Russia has been turning down easy outs since the middle March 2022, it is time to believe them.

Yeah But #23:

“Yeah, but if we do what hasn’t worked 27 times before, maybe doing it again will work!”

Edited April 16, 2023 by NamEndedAllen

[NamEndedAllen]

33 minutes ago, kimbosbread said:

In terms of detecting potential leaks, I would hope the approach is similar to what we do in the cybersecurity industry: Essentially have model of normal user or process behavior, and then for every behavior or non-behavior that falls out of that scope, we increase the risk score.

Makes sense, but some possibilities, because we know it went on and on:

1. It’s being done, and his behavior was NOT unusual!

2. it is, but too intermittent because monitoring is too big a firehouse for the deployed. And he knew how to beat it. Someone claimed he started as a magical 19 year cyber whiz kid as they all are

3. it is, but the parameters are flawed because of too wide variances or some other failure.

4. It is and they let him do it in a great CI scheme, although it embarrassed lots of allies 

5. it isn’t. 

[Battlefront.com]

Ukraine prepares for Spring/Summer:

https://twitter.com/GirkinGirkin/status/1647653240157134852

 

And Russia does the same:

https://twitter.com/GirkinGirkin/status/1647135745021300736

 

Video of Russian aid shipments to Bakhmut.  The Russian soldiers that these packs belonged to don't appear to have survived long enough to even eat their chocolate bars:

https://twitter.com/GirkinGirkin/status/1647628355863302144

(Twitter is blocking embedding of these videos for some reason)

Steve

[Kraft]

2 minutes ago, Battlefront.com said:

Ukraine prepares for Spring/Summer:

https://twitter.com/GirkinGirkin/status/1647653240157134852

 

And Russia does the same:

https://twitter.com/GirkinGirkin/status/1647135745021300736

(Twitter is blocking embedding of these videos for some reason)

Steve

Age restricted tweets - Its asking me to make an account, maybe thats why?

[Battlefront.com]

4 minutes ago, Kraft said:

Age restricted tweets - Its asking me to make an account, maybe thats why?

Yeah, that's what I suspected.  They tagged the Girkin account as containing possibly disturbing stuff, and so *ALL* videos posted there are now age restricted.  I suppose Twitter got rid of nuance now that 75% of its staff has been laid off.

The above videos were posted (mostly) for fun.  I'll not post Girkin stuff in the future unless it's important and I can't find it elsewhere.

Steve