How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?

[Beleg85]

Two tanks reportedly taken out with one round. Kudos for Legolas The Gunner.

 

[NamEndedAllen]

1 minute ago, Battlefront.com said:

Perhaps, but the question remains... why would anybody in the Air National Guard need access to this information at all?  This stuff was designed for the highest levels of active leadership and related advisors.

Maybe another question to ask is, “What materials did he NOT have access to?”

[Beleg85]

10 minutes ago, Battlefront.com said:

Perhaps, but the question remains... why would anybody in the Air National Guard need access to this information at all?  This stuff was designed for the highest levels of active leadership and related advisors.

As I said pages ago, this is the sort of debate the US needs to have about its sensitive documents.  There needs to be fewer of them and far fewer people able to access them.  The compartmentalization problems that crushed intel sharing prior to 9/11 needs to be kept in mind and not repeated.

Steve

Perhaps there is some base/ intelligence cell around that actively participated in collecting and formating data that was simply run by ANG...AIr Force maybe more privileged to access this sort of data than let's say Navy or even Army. But yeah, seems strange.

Edited April 13, 2023 by Beleg85

[Elmar Bijlsma]

14 minutes ago, Battlefront.com said:

Perhaps, but the question remains... why would anybody in the Air National Guard need access to this information at all?  This stuff was designed for the highest levels of active leadership and related advisors.

As I said pages ago, this is the sort of debate the US needs to have about its sensitive documents.  There needs to be fewer of them and far fewer people able to access them.  The compartmentalization problems that crushed intel sharing prior to 9/11 needs to be kept in mind and not repeated.

Steve

Yeah, the wide mix of topics in the leak makes one think Pentagon, Langley or White House intern or something.  Massachusetts ANG? Are you kidding me?! There's stuff in there that Air Force Chief of Staff doesn't need to see.

What the actual fudge?

Edited April 13, 2023 by Elmar Bijlsma

[Battlefront.com]

8 minutes ago, Elmar Bijlsma said:

Yeah, the wide mix of topics in the leak makes one think Pentagon, Langley or White House intern or something.  Massachusetts ANG? Are you kidding me?! There's stuff in there that Air Force Chief of Staff doesn't need to see.

What the actual fudge?

Someone is going to have to do an awful lot of explaining.  A bunch of people are about to be retired or put in charge of the janitor's closet for "health" reasons. 

This is the sort of absurd reality that exists in the real world that conspiracy theorists feed off of.  Reading the comments in the Channel 5's Twitter channel shows they are already at work figuring out reasons to doubt that this guy is the real leaker.  The paranoid mind wants what the paranoid mind wants!

Steve

[JonS]

55 minutes ago, NamEndedAllen said:

Did he and all the others like him, at his level, need to know the details of the Ukrainian we plans? Of who is allegedly secretly supplying weapons to Russia? Of every nation we are spying on?

No, but someone has to sift the data and compile the reports. Do you think Gen Jack Ripper is going to be doing that himself?

[Battlefront.com]

23 hours ago, Fernando said:

https://elpais.com/espana/2023-04-12/el-ministro-de-defensa-ucranio-revela-que-espana-le-ha-dado-misiles-antibuque-harpoon-para-alejar-a-la-flota-rusa-de-sus-costas.html

[...] The Ukrainian Defense Minister, Oleksii Reznikov, revealed this Wednesday in Madrid that Spain has delivered Harpoon anti-ship missiles to Kiev that are serving to keep the Russian fleet away from the coasts of his country in the Black Sea. Reznikov thanked his Spanish counterpart, Margarita Robles, for her participation in the coalition that supplies Ukraine with a weapons system that "is guaranteeing that African countries receive Ukrainian grain and survive famine."

Until now, Spain had not reported the delivery of these anti-ship missiles to Kyiv. In her last appearance in Congress, Robles spoke generically of the supply of "five naval systems" that would correspond, according to the sources consulted, to five Harpoon AGM-84 missiles at a cost of one million dollars per unit. The minister has excused herself, alleging that Spain acts with discretion and does not detail the material it delivers to Kyiv, unless the Ukrainians themselves decide to make it public. [...]

Coming back to this post from Fernando as it was squashed by all the leak reporting.

This is really interesting stuff because we've not seen any attacks on Russian shipping except for unmanned boat bombs.  And even that has been quiet as of late.  I think we should expect some attacks on Russia's navy and various bases sometime soon.  It would fit in with what they did last year.

Steve

[Battlefront.com]

1 minute ago, JonS said:

No, but someone has to sift the data and compile the reports. Do you think Gen Jack Ripper is going to be doing that himself?

Right, but this wasn't that sort of guy.  Those people are in DC, or at least should be.  Plus, the people that sift through data at the lowest level should not be seeing the final complete reports.  That's like a data analyst for Microsoft figuring out marketing trends and then having access to boardroom level strategic reports.

No matter what, this reflects very badly on the US intel establishment.  Either this guy had normal access to stuff he had no business seeing *OR* he bypassed internal security checks to access stuff he wasn't supposed to see *OR* he was improperly vetted/supervised for stuff he was allowed to see. 

No matter what, this particular individual should not have had access to this information under any scenario.  No matter what, under any scenario there was a major failure in the basic way intel is handled.

Steve

[JonS]

40 minutes ago, Elmar Bijlsma said:

Massachusetts ANG? Are you kidding me?!

Kiddo probably got a secondment or posting to another unit (or a higher HQ) to fill a vacancy, or provide surge capacity required by the extra work because of Ukraine.

Providing that non-permanent capability is kind of what the NG is for, after all.

Edited April 13, 2023 by JonS

[JonS]

6 minutes ago, Battlefront.com said:

Either this guy had normal access to stuff he had no business seeing *OR* he bypassed internal security checks to access stuff he wasn't supposed to see *OR* he was improperly vetted/supervised for stuff he was allowed to see. 

I think it's pretty clearly the last one, no? In retrospect, kiddo shouldn't have had any clearance greater than CV.

It might *also* be the first one (slack discipline at whatever unit he was at), but I'm dubious about the second - he might be cunning, but kiddo isn't smart.

Edited April 13, 2023 by JonS

[Peregrine]

I think an obvious but unasked question so far is if this is the sloppiness of distribution and access it is amazing that it doesn't happen more frequently.

Edited April 13, 2023 by Peregrine

[NamEndedAllen]

14 minutes ago, JonS said:

No, but someone has to sift the data and compile the reports. Do you think Gen Jack Ripper is going to be doing that himself?

This MA ANG squadron really needed *all* of THIS Intel? And that is happening with ALL of this trove of highest level stuff, and all available at every ANG in the USA, and therefore all the other bases everywhere? Every installation of every branch accesses essentially all facets and levels of military and related diplomatic classifications? With this same unsupervised point of failure - a guy like this? If so, as I said before, forget the illusion that *any* military secrets are…secret. They already flew the coop. Just weren’t all openly published by a nutjob.

[Jiggathebauce]

I'm wont to criticize branches that would have trained personnel policing for cigarette butts in parking lots, but clearly this kid should have been assigned that kind of work instead of having the access and the assignment they gave him.

[NamEndedAllen]

Double post 

Edited April 13, 2023 by NamEndedAllen

[Haiduk]

Year ago. It's claimed on this video the same launch of "Neptun" missiles, which thanking to lucky coincidence of many factors could sink "Moskva" cruiser

Recently, about four months ago only photos of this launch were issued.

PS. Name "Moskva" is unlucky for Black Sea Fleet. in June 1941 Soviet battle group of light cruiser "Voroshilov" and destroyer leaders "Moskva" and "Kharkov" has conducted a raid on Romanian port Constantsa. During duel with coastal battery and two Romanian destroyers, ships of battle group received damages and were forced to withdraw. During maneuver they sailed on minefield - the cruiser was damaged by explosion, but leader "Moskva" has blown up, broke in two parts and sank. 

On the photo leader "Moskva" (project 1 type)

Edited April 13, 2023 by Haiduk

[Sojourner]

Presumably he was based at Otis ANG Base, home of the 102nd Air Intelligence Wing. Mision has something to do with the global war on terror. 

 

[NamEndedAllen]

6 minutes ago, JonS said:

I think it's pretty clearly the last one, no? In retrospect, kiddo shouldn't have had any clearance greater than CV.

It might *also* be the first one (slack discipline at whatever unit he was at), but I'm dubious about the second - he might be cunning, but kiddo isn't smart.

Or he wasn’t the leak’s first link in the chain.
Useful idiot?

[JonS]

32 minutes ago, NamEndedAllen said:

This MA ANG squadron

"This squadron" is the 102nd Intelligence Wing. Their role is "to provide worldwide precision intelligence ... for expeditionary combat support and homeland security." So, yes; 'this squadron' probably should have access to 'all that info.'

Edited April 13, 2023 by JonS

[kevinkin]

https://www.lowyinstitute.org/the-interpreter/what-does-china-want-ukraine

Not a new analysis from this POV, but it's concise. Could Putin have foresaw this shotgun wedding as a fall back position if he screwed up royally? 

Such deepening cooperation between Beijing and Moscow is dictated by simple logic: China understands that it cannot take on the Western coalition alone. It needs a partner of considerable heft but in a league lower than itself. Sharing Xi’s disdain for the Western-led global order, Putin comes with a bag of abundant energy and natural resources. Given Russia’s markets, diplomatic support, a sizeable military machine, raw resources and no other alternative, Chinese mandarins have no better option but to keep engaging Putin. 

China has reservations about Putin’s miscalculation in Ukraine. However, seeing Moscow take a beating in its neighbourhood is not in Chinese interests. A Russian defeat will encourage the Americans to go full throttle in the Indo-Pacific. On the other hand, bogging down NATO attention in Ukraine also keeps Europe occupied and Washington distracted. Therefore, it is in Beijing’s interest not to let Russia fall and, at the same time, to keep the Western coalition busy in Ukraine. Keeping the West busy gives Beijing time for its manoeuvres in Taiwan. A slow and grinding conflict suits Beijing perfectly. Furthermore, a weakening Russia enlarges the scope for increasing Chinese influence in Eurasia, mainly Central Asia, Moscow’s traditional playground.

[Battlefront.com]

34 minutes ago, JonS said:

I think it's pretty clearly the last one, no? In retrospect, kiddo shouldn't have had any clearance greater than CV.

I think nefarious code type hacking is VERY unlikely as he doesn't seem to have the background or brains for it.  But sloppy protocols within the unit might have allowed him to gain access to stuff he wasn't authorized to see.  Best form of "hacking" is getting someone's password or knowing that there's an inherent flaw in a security proceedure that can be exploited.

34 minutes ago, JonS said:

It might *also* be the first one (slack discipline at whatever unit he was at), but I'm dubious about the second - he might be cunning, but kiddo isn't smart.

I know types like this guy and they RADIATE problems that someone should have spotted.  Not smart and not cunning either.  Some serious parts of his psyche were MIA.

As part of my ideal screening process, I'd check in with the latest science on physiological mental health decline in (particularly) young males.  There's a host of psychological problems with physiological roots that start to show up in late teens and early 20s and things get worse from there unless treated.  I had two guys I knew pretty well in my primary schooling that wound up dead in their early 20s because of these types of things (one committed suicide, the other walked into the middle of a highway).  Might be best to wait until the brains are a bit more firmed up before deciding if they are good candidates for this work.

Steve

[NamEndedAllen]

23 minutes ago, JonS said:

"This squadron" is the 102nd Intelligence Wing. Their role is "to provide worldwide precision intelligence ... for expeditionary combat support and homeland security." So, yes; "this squadron' absolutely should have access to that info.

OK, thanks! That explains one aspect of this goat rope. But it does double down on the oversight question. He was bright enough to be well hidden, in plain sight? That’s why no one noticed he had no business being in the ANG, let alone the 102nd? Or, like Hansen, no one seemed to notice clues about unhidden behaviors, etc? Or as feared, supervision of the highest level materials in such areas is so poor that today, after all the past failures, the lowest guy on the totem pole can just walk out with all the jewels.

[cesmonkey]

https://www.reuters.com/world/south-korea-lend-500000-rounds-artillery-shells-us-report-2023-04-12/

Quote

South Korea has reached an agreement to lend the United States 500,000 rounds of 155mm artillery shells that could give Washington greater flexibility to supply Ukraine with ammunition, a South Korean newspaper reported on Wednesday.

 

[Kinophile]

 

 

[MikeyD]

I recall Korea had a similar arrangement with Canada. They would replace Canada's diminished ammo stockpiles that got sent to Ukraine but not send shells directly to Ukraine, themselves.

[Jiggathebauce]

35 minutes ago, Battlefront.com said:

I think nefarious code type hacking is VERY unlikely as he doesn't seem to have the background or brains for it.  But sloppy protocols within the unit might have allowed him to gain access to stuff he wasn't authorized to see.  Best form of "hacking" is getting someone's password or knowing that there's an inherent flaw in a security proceedure that can be exploited.

I know types like this guy and they RADIATE problems that someone should have spotted.  Not smart and not cunning either.  Some serious parts of his psyche were MIA.

As part of my ideal screening process, I'd check in with the latest science on physiological mental health decline in (particularly) young males.  There's a host of psychological problems with physiological roots that start to show up in late teens and early 20s and things get worse from there unless treated.  I had two guys I knew pretty well in my primary schooling that wound up dead in their early 20s because of these types of things (one committed suicide, the other walked into the middle of a highway).  Might be best to wait until the brains are a bit more firmed up before deciding if they are good candidates for this work.

Steve

Some folks would be surprised how easy it is to blend in and not be noticed just by being a trim, clean cut, "normal" looking young man as long as you don't draw attention to yourself in the workplace and in the community...

Knowing someone online and in the locker room versus just in passing at formations and at work, can be enlightening once they let their guards down.

Edited April 13, 2023 by Jiggathebauce
Clarity