How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?

[Kinophile]

6 hours ago, Battlefront.com said:

  However, everybody makes mistakes.  People who make mistakes need to be rewarded more than punished.

Steve

The Kremlin certainly thinks so

[Fenris]

Rider's view of BMP going over a mine

 

[Kinophile]

 

 

[Battlefront.com]

31 minutes ago, Kinophile said:

The Kremlin certainly thinks so

Yesh... now there was a typo!  Here's what I meant to say (key word replacement all in caps):

"However, everybody makes mistakes.  People who ADMIT mistakes need to be rewarded more than punished."

My point is now a lot more sensible, is it not?

Steve

[Kinophile]

Quite

[billbindc]

There's a guy right now working on a US military base who is realizing that the entire apparatus of the US government is about to land on him: 

https://www.washingtonpost.com/national-security/2023/04/12/discord-leaked-documents/

My guess yesterday...based in part on things I read here was: 

Poster of the docs...something like an E-5, male, probably posted overseas, under 35, not coupled and with a large online presence.

Edited April 13, 2023 by billbindc

[Bearstronaut]

We came really close to war last September. A Russian SU-27 attempted to shoot down a British Rivet Joint over the Black Sea but the missile malfunctioned.

https://www.nytimes.com/2023/04/12/world/europe/russian-jet-british-spy-plane.html?smid=tw-share

Edited April 13, 2023 by Bearstronaut

[Elmar Bijlsma]

9 hours ago, Battlefront.com said:

Of all the Soviet weaponry, this is one of the systems I've always wondered why the West didn't copy.  It makes so much sense to have an indirect fire weapon capable of rapid RoF.  Having it on wheels is also helpful for avoiding counter battery fire.  However, I have faith that the reason why this idea "never caught on" with the West is that there is some significant downsides I've not thought of or had explained to me.

Steve

If I had to guess, it's because that thing looks as heavy as a 120mm mortar, if not heavier. And more complex. And I reckon throwing a handful of 82mm at a position is near enough the same effect of a single a 120mm as not to  matter.

 

[Elmar Bijlsma]

3 hours ago, Kinophile said:

 

 

Former Dutch commander of the army has taken a look and came to pretty much the same conclusion. For your DeepL-ing pleasure:

https://nos.nl/artikel/2471146-zijn-westerse-speciale-eenheden-in-oekraine-staan-rare-dingen-in-gelekt-document

 

I'm still thinking it is a PsyOp. Still not entirely sure whose, though. Could be Russian, (pro)Ukrainian or 4chan.

[chris talpas]

Could this leak even be along the lines of Operation Fortitude  to sow confusion as to UA capabilities?

[Battlefront.com]

44 minutes ago, Elmar Bijlsma said:

If I had to guess, it's because that thing looks as heavy as a 120mm mortar, if not heavier. And more complex. And I reckon throwing a handful of 82mm at a position is near enough the same effect of a single a 120mm as not to  matter.

 

Yes, but here in America we would stick something like that on an expensive vehicle and upgrade it to 120mm.  You know, because that's the sort of thing we love to do!  Yet as far as I know there's been no clip fired automatic mortar in US or any NATO country, though recently there's been some automatically loaded ones.  Not quite the same thing.

Also, back in the olden days the purpose of a mortar was to hit an area and not a specific point.  Popping 5 rounds in rapid succession in a tight pattern would certainly be a problem for the receiving end even at 82mm.

Steve

[Offshoot]

1 hour ago, billbindc said:

There's a guy right now working on a US military base who is realizing that the entire apparatus of the US government is about to land on him: 

 

He's certainly going to be getting the attention he craved, though this time he will not be in control.

I'm mystified why this kid has gone to the press (I assume he approached them rather than the WP found him). Given the choice of lying low and pleading ignorance or going to the authorities, he instead goes to the press, says he was the only one who believed the documents were real, and mounts a strange defense of his friend - he is a God-fearing man and isn't like Snowden. Further, he states he is going to assist an assumed criminal by not identifying him before he is found.

A couple of WP journalists might be preparing themselves for a few weeks in jail too.

[Battlefront.com]

1 hour ago, billbindc said:

There's a guy right now working on a US military base who is realizing that the entire apparatus of the US government is about to land on him: 

https://www.washingtonpost.com/national-security/2023/04/12/discord-leaked-documents/

My guess yesterday...based in part on things I read here was: 

Poster of the docs...something like an E-5, male, probably posted overseas, under 35, not coupled and with a large online presence.

OK, sounds like this guy will be arrested very soon.  If these kids know who he is, I'm sure the government does as well.  Now, at least.

I really, really, really wish the intel community (not just US) could do a better job at not granting high clearance levels to extreme wackos of any variety.  I mean, how f'n hard is it to find a couple hundred people that are both sane and qualified for whatever their job is?

I dunno, maybe they are too focused on old school traitors who do it mostly for money or because they are being blackmailed or both.

Steve

[billbindc]

5 minutes ago, Offshoot said:

He's certainly going to be getting the attention he craved, though this time he will not be in control.

I'm mystified why this kid has gone to the press (I assume he approached them rather than the WP found him). Given the choice of lying low and pleading ignorance or going to the authorities, he instead goes to the press, says he was the only one who believed the documents were real, and mounts a strange defense of his friend - he is a God-fearing man and isn't like Snowden. Further, he states he is going to assist an assumed criminal by not identifying him before he is found.

A couple of WP journalists might be preparing themselves for a few weeks in jail too.

No...the journalists are doing their job and in the process have probably moved the case forward more quickly. I think you have to see what happened as a classic case of modern loneliness, anomie and a nerveless ignorance of the real world. Yes, the guys on that board were disaffected but they didn't seem to care much either way. They were simply in their bubble looking for reassurance and to one up each other. The naivete on display (that kid doesn't realize he has zero choice in supplying the name of "OG") is simply staggering. Tom Nichol's 'lost boy' thesis gets another data point.

[Battlefront.com]

49 minutes ago, Elmar Bijlsma said:

I'm still thinking it is a PsyOp. Still not entirely sure whose, though. Could be Russian, (pro)Ukrainian or 4chan.

All indications are that this was not a PsyOp, however it has kinda turned into one thanks to how many hands these documents went through before anybody significant noticed them.  The Russian Nats tarting them up to tell a fairy tail helps with it as well.

However, if it was a PsyOp it was done by the US and all of its allies are in the loop.  As I said from the start, there is no way in Hell the US would do something like this without it.  The damage being done to relationships would not be worth whatever gain came from punking the Russians, Chinese, Iranians, or North Koreans.

Steve

[Offshoot]

10 minutes ago, billbindc said:

No...the journalists are doing their job and in the process have probably moved the case forward more quickly.

My comment about the journalists was not based on their moral position but their legal one, as per this for example (https://www.legalzoom.com/articles/can-a-journalist-be-forced-to-reveal-confidential-sources)

"Can a journalist be forced to reveal confidential sources? The answer appears to be no...as long as that journalist is willing to go to jail."

I'm guessing the FBI had contacted the WP before the paper hit the stands.

[NamEndedAllen]

1 hour ago, Offshoot said:

He's certainly going to be getting the attention he craved, though this time he will not be in control.

I'm mystified why this kid has gone to the press (I assume he approached them rather than the WP found him). Given the choice of lying low and pleading ignorance or going to the authorities, he instead goes to the press, says he was the only one who believed the documents were real, and mounts a strange defense of his friend - he is a God-fearing man and isn't like Snowden. Further, he states he is going to assist an assumed criminal by not identifying him before he is found.

A couple of WP journalists might be preparing themselves for a few weeks in jail too.

A real piece of work.

“In a video seen by The Post, the man who the member said is OG stands at a shooting range, wearing safety glasses and ear coverings and holding a large rifle. He yells a series of racial and antisemitic slurs into the camera, then fires several rounds at a target.

OG had a dark view of the government. The young member said he spoke of the United States, and particularly law enforcement and the intelligence community, as a sinister force that sought suppress its citizens and keep them in the dark. He ranted about “government overreach.”…“I would definitely not call him a whistleblower. I would not call OG a whistleblower in the slightest,” he said, resisting comparisons to Edward Snowden, who shared classified documents about government surveillance with journalists”.— By Shane Harris and Samuel Oakford, April 12, 2023 at 9:36 p.m. EDT, Washington Post

ALSO

“The man behind a massive leak of U.S. secrets was an employee on an unidentified military base who regularly ranted about “government overreach,” members of an online Discord server he controlled told The Washington Post. The man, identified only as “OG” by his fellow Discord users, was the unchallenged leader of the server…one member said. OG reportedly also seemed to harbor dark beliefs about deep-rooted government corruption, once sharing on the server a baseless conspiracy theory that the government had had advance notice of a mass shooting in Buffalo, New York, but chose not to act. He also began dumping hand-typed transcripts of classified intelligence documents on the server—several a week beginning late last year, according to the Post—and “got upset” when other users didn’t interact with them to his liking.    https://www.thedailybeast.com/pentagon-leaker-og-ranted-about-government-overreach-on-discord-report-says”

Edited April 13, 2023 by NamEndedAllen

[Bulletpoint]

9 hours ago, Battlefront.com said:

Holy crow.  Talk about Cope Trench Feever.

This war has reinforced the experiences of WW2, which is the best forms of defense are multi layered "hedgehog" positions that interlock with other similar positions so as to limit the ability to bypass.  If one line of a hedgehog is defeated there is no significant breakthrough potential.  With a single trench like this?  Ridiculously easy to breach.  And once breached, the rest of it serves no purpose.

Steve

I think it's not a trench, but an anti-tank ditch.

[chrisl]

1 hour ago, Battlefront.com said:

OK, sounds like this guy will be arrested very soon.  If these kids know who he is, I'm sure the government does as well.  Now, at least.

I really, really, really wish the intel community (not just US) could do a better job at not granting high clearance levels to extreme wackos of any variety.  I mean, how f'n hard is it to find a couple hundred people that are both sane and qualified for whatever their job is?

I dunno, maybe they are too focused on old school traitors who do it mostly for money or because they are being blackmailed or both.

Steve

One of the problems with the clearance process is that the younger you are and less history you have, the easier it is to get a clearance.  And at that age it's easier to hide wacko properties because there are just fewer people who would have seen them.  

A lot of the investigation is about whether you have questionable connections, or things you're hiding from people that make you blackmailable, etc, and so if you're 22 and fresh out of school there's just a lot less there.  I'm also not convinced that the government has done any really scientific study of what works and what doesn't as evaluation criteria - quite a few of the criteria look like they came right out of the 50s and there are things that make you "questionable" that might have been an issue in 1956 but not only are common today, so common that you may not be able to find people without those characteristics. 

But to your point - they should be able to find people who aren't wackos who are competent, even for pretty obscure things.  You may not always be able to get all the skills/capabilities you want in a single cleared person, but should be able to do it by making a small group of complementary people.  And that's probably more secure in some ways, since they should start noticing if their teammates are wacko.

edit:

But all that said, I'm also not convinced that it's not a psyop.  It's a lot of stuff to get out in one place, and it's got some strange characteristics.  So even if it wasn't originally a US/NATO created psyop, it's possible that it's the product of some random OSINT person (or hobbyist making a game, or troll, or whatever) and the intel people decided they could fabricate a psyop around it. "Yeah, that report about aliens that you found on the internet that says USG all over it? IT'S ALL REAL!!!" and then start feeding stories to the WAPO and NYT "Oh, those aliens, yeah, we've been hiding them for decades and now the jig is up.  We're so effed that the alien technology is about to all get out.  The brits have been teleporting in and out all over the Russian lines and are going to be shut down".

Edited April 13, 2023 by chrisl

[JonS]

1 hour ago, NamEndedAllen said:

an employee on an unidentified military base who regularly ranted about “government overreach,”

tell me you have cognitive dissonance without telling me you have cognitive dissonance

[Battlefront.com]

48 minutes ago, Bulletpoint said:

I think it's not a trench, but an anti-tank ditch.

Doesn't matter, same thinking applies... it's a pointless effort that will be easily breached where Ukraine wants to breach it, making the rest of no practical use.

Steve

[JonS]

2 hours ago, Battlefront.com said:

I mean, how f'n hard is it to find a couple hundred people that are both sane and qualified for whatever their job is?

A couple of hundred probably wouldn't bee too hard - and also small enough that everyone would (should) know each other well enough to self-correct to some degree.

There are well over a million people with clearances in .mil.us. That's a somewhat more complex problem.

Edited April 13, 2023 by JonS

[Battlefront.com]

20 minutes ago, JonS said:

A couple of hundred probably wouldn't bee too hard - and also small enough that everyone would (should) know each other well enough to self-correct to some degree.

There are well over a million people with clearances in .mil.us. That's a somewhat more complex problem.

Right, but the number of people with clearance to see this specific stuff is said to be in the low thousands tops.  A manageable number.

That said, what should happen is the number of people granted access be based on how many people are truly qualified to have that access.  Standards should not be lowered to fill positions.  I no more want a wacko looking at classified info as I want an 600 pound cop or a 90 year old EMT with a bum hip.

Fortunately there's already some movement in the US to address the problem of over classification.  Too much classified stuff means you have to have greater numbers of people able to view it otherwise the machine won't function.  Long overdue examination.

Steve

[Battlefront.com]

1 hour ago, chrisl said:

One of the problems with the clearance process is that the younger you are and less history you have, the easier it is to get a clearance.  And at that age it's easier to hide wacko properties because there are just fewer people who would have seen them.  

With a better designed vetting process this could be fairly easily worked around.  For example, being told to hand over access to all social media accounts during application process and being subjected to random inspections while holding classification.  Couple things like this with a lie detector test and I think we're well on the way to scoping out who we're hiring:

Interviewer (I) = do you have any social media accounts you haven't told us about?

Prospect (P) = no.

I = well, this needle here shows you're lying.  What account are you not telling us about and what is your user name?

P = well, I go by JewKiller666 on whitepower.com.  But I hardly use it so I thought I didn't need to mention it.

I = yeah, well, don't let the door hit you in the arse on the way out.  NEXT!

 

Of course I am being a bit flip here, but my guess is that the vetting process is not geared towards the full spectrum of whackos out there.  It needs to be on the lookout for people who are, basically, antisocial generally.  You know, because antisocial people tend to do antisocial things.

I wouldn't be half surprised if they still have a type written question like "have you ever been a member of the Communist Party USA?"  OK, I'm being flip again... so I'll just stop there.

Steve

[Yskonyn]

3 hours ago, Elmar Bijlsma said:

Former Dutch commander of the army has taken a look and came to pretty much the same conclusion. For your DeepL-ing pleasure:

https://nos.nl/artikel/2471146-zijn-westerse-speciale-eenheden-in-oekraine-staan-rare-dingen-in-gelekt-document

 

I'm still thinking it is a PsyOp. Still not entirely sure whose, though. Could be Russian, (pro)Ukrainian or 4chan.

This only refers to a small subset of the leaked material.

The WP article claimed documents were leaked steadily over the winter. More than 300 docs.

I find it easy to believe many of these might have been altered, especially after they were put online.

But the volume of leaked stuff seems to be next level. Does this fit with a psy-ops theory?

The story about OG and the sad gamer dude doesn’t seem to be far fetched. Pretty plausible.

Still, this is the reason we need to educate our kids about what implications always being connected might have.

I reiterate to my kids; once you’ve posted something on the web, you have no control over it anymore. So use your brain. Otherwise you’ll be that 17y/o topless girl on the net forever.

 

Edited April 13, 2023 by Yskonyn